Okay you gems, now that we have our rankings out for the Top 24 RBs, Top 36 WRs, and Top 12 QBs/TEs (all of which are linked below this intro), we’re moving on to a five-part article series that goes through my top three picks from every round of your fantasy draft. This will be Part I of the series, where I’ll go through each of the top three rounds and provide some analysis on the guys I’m reaching for in each round, regardless of where I’m picking. I’m not just coming here to provide controversial takes that go against the grain – this is a true list of the first three guys I’d take in every round if my draft was happening today.
That being said, it’s not like I’m going completely chalk on you by selecting the top three players in ADP from that round. There will be more than a few guys that fall into the 7th to 12th pick range in ADP for any given round that I’d be comfortable drafting with the 2nd or 3rd pick in that round – and that’s where this piece can provide some value to you.
But before I launch into things, just a few ground rules for this exercise:
- The values of all players will be based on their current Sleeper ADPs. For example, Emeka Egbuka is currently going at a Sleeper ADP of 43. This would make him the 7th pick of the 4th round (4.07), so he would be considered as one of my favourite 4th round picks if I were to choose him;
- I will not have defenses or kickers as any of my favourite picks in the later rounds, sorry DST lovers; and
- This is all based on ½ PPR scoring.
Okay, now onto the fun stuff.
Previous Editions of Rankings & ADP Outliers:
Fantasy Football – Top 12 QB Rankings & ADP Outliers – Preseason Edition
Fantasy Football – Top 12 TE Rankings & ADP Outliers – Preseason Edition
Fantasy Football – Top 36 WR Rankings & ADP Outliers – Preseason Edition
Fantasy Football – Top 24 RB Rankings & ADP Outliers – Preseason Edition
Top Three Picks of Round 1
Full disclosure for Round 1 – I will not be giving you the players that I see as the “obvious first four picks” of this round. It’s clear to me that we have an elite tier with Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja’Marr Chase, and Puka Nacua, so there’s no real need to shout these guys out (as you now know where I stand on them). My preference is Gibbs 1.01, Bijan 1.02, Chase 1.03, and Puka 1.04, but I wouldn’t fault anyone for having a slightly different order in that tier. So, let’s get to some of the guys that are going at the 1.05 or later to see where we can find some value.
Quick Thoughts on the 1.05 Pick
Before we get into my favourite picks for Round 1, I wanted to be up front regarding a few guys I left off the list. If I end up picking at the 1.05 in any of my drafts – pray for me. I’ve already gone through my bear case against JSN (ADP 1.08), where I had him ranked as the WR8 in a prior article (though I’ve been tinkering with that a bit, so I might end up with him as the WR7 or WR6). That means he’s not in the cards here.
Then, we move on to the two bellcow backs that absolutely scare me to death this year: CMC (ADP 1.05) and Jonathan Taylor (ADP 1.06). The case against McCaffrey is almost exclusively tied to injury. I’m sure a lot of you have seen this information come across your twitter feed at some point, but here’s how McCaffrey’s seasons have panned out in the past after he’s had 400+ touches in a season (including the postseason): (i) 2019: 403 touches, 2020: injured early and only able to play in three full games, (ii) 2023: 417 touches, 2024: injured early and only able to play in three full games again. Last season, CMC had 450 touches. I love the guy, and I know he takes care of his body better than almost anyone in the NFL. But nobody defies father time forever, and this is a 30 year old RB who’s taken on some massive workloads. I just can’t get there with him this year, as a first round sunk investment in fantasy is often a death sentence for your playoff chances.
Jonathan Taylor, on the other hand, is still at the ripe age of 27 with a few more prime years left in his legs. He’s guaranteed around 20-30 touches a game in a good offensive scheme. There are a few issues I have with him this year though:
- Despite glowing reports throughout the offseason, Daniel Jones health worries me following the torn achilles he suffered in Week 14 last year. It’s absurd that he’s back so soon, but even a slight downtick in his ability/availability concerns me when it comes to the potency of this offense. JT was the RB1 with 25.9 FPPG when Jones was fully healthy the first ten games, the RB20 with 10.6 FPPG in the two games Jones played on a fractured fibula, and the RB24 with 11.1 FPPG when Jones was out of the lineup completely. JT needs a competent offense around him to succeed as a runner (or the defense will continue to stack the box at high rates).
- It’s not only Jones’ health that concerns me for the potency of this offense, as they’ve also lost key offensive chain-mover Michael Pittman (traded to the Steelers), and WR1 Alec Pierce remains a true question mark for Week 1 after recovering from ankle surgery this offseason. I’d expect some offensive regression on this basis alone, hurting Taylor.
- Offensive regression isn’t only coming as a result of personnel changes, as we have to take a look back at the schedule of the Colts in 2025. Here’s a list of all the defenses JT played over the first 10 weeks of the season (when he was averaging an absurd 25.9 FPPG) and their FPPG allowed to the RB position:
- MIA: 12th most FPPG allowed at 20.5; 11.3 pts for JT
- DEN: 32nd most FPPG allowed at 16.1; 28.5 pts for JT (good on ya)
- TEN twice: 13th most FPPG allowed at 20.4; 31.3 and 36.4 pts for JT
- LAR: 22nd most FPPG allowed at 18.4; 12.1 pts for JT
- LV: 9th most FPPG allowed at 21.6; 30.1 pts for JT
- ARI: 2nd most FPPG allowed at 25.5; 21.7 pts for JT
- LAC: 29th most FPPG allowed at 17.2; 32.7 pts for JT (good on ya again)
- PIT: 27th most FPPG allowed at 17.5; 6.7 pts for JT
- ATL: 15th most FPPG allowed at 19.9; 48.1 pts for JT
- 6 of his 10 matchups against bottom-half of the league defenses in allowing RB fantasy production. In the other four matchups, he had some booms (28.5 vs DEN and 32.7 vs LAC), but he also had some busts (12.1 vs LAR and 6.7 vs PIT). His opening eight weeks of the season include matchups against: BAL (18th most FPPG allowed), KC (26th most FPPG allowed), HOU (23rd most FPPG allowed), PIT (27th most FPPG allowed), MIN (21st most FPPG allowed), and JAX (30th most FPPG allowed). That’s 6 out of 8 matchups against above average defenses last year (when it came to limiting RB fantasy production), compared to 3 out his first 8 matchups being in that range last year. It’s not the be-all-end-all for Taylor, but it’s another factor stacked against him.
- Taylor had his own injury concerns in the past, primarily with his ankle which limited him to 11 games in 2022 and 14 games in 2024. I’m not forecasting an injury coming this year, but he did accumulate 369 touches last year (2nd most in the NFL behind CMC) and it’s his 7th NFL season. Just another thing to consider.
All of that’s to say this: I don’t like JT until pick 1.08 this year, so I likely won’t have any shares of him given his price as the 1.06. With that out of the way, let’s get to my 1.05, 1.06, and 1.07 picks in the 1st round.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown – WR (Detroit Lions) – Sleeper ADP: Pick 1.07
I wouldn’t be happy if I missed out on the top four top-tier assets, but St. Brown is a good consolation prize with how reliable the All-Pro WR is. Over the past three seasons, St. Brown has finished as the fantasy WR3 each year. But it’s not only his finish that inspires confidence, as his consistency is unmatched over this period of time. From 2023 to 2025, St. Brown played 49 full games out of a possible 51. The only games where he didn’t have full participation were Week 13 of last season and Week 5 of 2023. Over the 49 games he’s played in full, he’s had a grand total of ten games where he fell under 10 fantasy points scored. That’s ridiculous, especially when you consider that he was also winning you weeks over that period of time with top 5 weekly finishes at WR on twelve separate occasions. Being a top 5 WR on the week more times than you’ve finished below 10 fantasy points is banana-land type of production. And it’s not like St. Brown is drastically boosted in the ranks each year because of his health, as he was the WR4 in FPPG in 2023, the WR5 in FPPG in 2024, and the WR4 in FPPG in 2025. Elite availability and elite statistical output – what more can a guy ask for?
St. Brown is literally bust proof unless Jared Goff goes down. That’s the same Jared Goff who’s played the full 17 game slate in each of his past four seasons, and has never played less than 14 games in a season since becoming a starter. You’ll remember last year that HC Dan Campbell was so pissed off with OC John Morton that he took playcalling duties away from him after Week 9. Even with that subpar scheme/gameplan through the first nine weeks, St. Brown was still the WR3 in FPPG (17.0). While the Lions brought in a new playcaller this year (Drew Petzing, playcaller for the Cardinals last year), there shouldn’t be any concern for Brown because (i) Petzing knows how to get the ball to his best players in the passing game as we’ve seen with McBride (TE1 last year) and Michael Wilson (WR13 last year, and not as talented as St. Brown), and (ii) if Petzing isn’t performing up to the level Campbell expects, he’ll just take over playcalling again.
I also see a scenario where the Lions pass rate jumps up a few percentage points this year due to the departure of David Montgomery (they were 11th in pass rate last year at 58.42%). Gibbs will still be an absolute menace on the ground, but there’s no way he can take up the 182 touches that Monty vacated without getting injured. The replacement (Isaiah Pacheco) already picked up an MCL sprain and isn’t as proficient as Montgomery, so I don’t expect him to take on nearly enough opportunities to fill that void (even with Gibbs taking on more work). That points to a slight increase in work for DET pass-catchers, something their #1 target St. Brown should take advantage of. Sign me up for this stud at the 1.05.
- James Cook – RB (Buffalo Bills) – Sleeper ADP: Pick 1.09
That’s right, I have James Dalvin Cook as my 1.06 off the board this year after he went as the RB13 in 2025 (around pick 3.04) and finished as the RB6. I’m obviously drafting him at his ceiling here (don’t really have a choice as he’s being picked as the RB5), but I think he has the capacity to reach this mark after three straight years as a fantasy RB1 where he’s continuously moved his way up the rankings.
A key with Cook is his durability and availability, as he’s played 16+ games in each of his four seasons in the NFL. Something I think is the key for Cook staying so healthy (which separates him from JT and CMC) is a healthy rotation and % of snaps, as he was only in for about 60.6% of snaps last year compared to JT and CMC who were at 80+%. Further, Cook only had 342 regular season touches last year compared to 369 for Taylor and 413 for CMC. And Cook has two less seasons of wear-and-tear compared to Taylor and five less seasons of wear-and-tear compared to CMC. As far as injury risk goes, Cook’s the safest RB not named Gibbs or Bijan that’s being picked in the top 10.
I can see people being fearful of TD opportunities for Cook given what Josh Allen does around the goal line, but this continues to be one of the highest scoring offenses in football (3rd last year with 28.3 PPG), and Cook already experienced regression from 2024 to 2025 (16 rushing TDs vs 12 rushing TDs). All the while, he still moved up from the RB8 in 2024 to the RB6 in 2025. Oddsmakers continue to be bullish on Cook breaching 10+ rushing TDs this year (he’s at -180 here), so why wouldn’t I be? On top of that, I could see even more receiving work coming Cook’s way in 2025, even if this might be overblown coach-speak/player-speak:
The only argument I can buy into is that the Bills have a tougher schedule this year. But Warren Sharp still has them with the 14th easiest schedule in the NFL, with built in divisional matchups against the Dolphins and Jets allowing for three games where Cook should be a week-winner (unlucky they get the Jets in Week 18 for their second matchup against them). But it’s not like Cook had an easy road last year through the schedule, as he had nine 2025 matchups against top half of the league defenses (when it came to limiting RB fantasy production) and he averaged 17.7 FPPG in those games (which was actually higher than his season-long FPPG mark of 16.8).
My projection for James Cook: around 1,500 rushing yards (121 less than last year), 45 receptions (12 more than last year, but just 1 above his career high), 400 receiving yards (taking into account 12 more receptions and his 8.8 yards-per-catch), and 14 total TDs (same as last year). That takes him to 296.5 fantasy points, which would have him just behind Bijan (331.3) and Gibbs (328.4) and ahead of Achane (289.3) last year. Nothing otherworldly, but consistent and an every week contributor to your fantasy team’s success.
- Ceedee Lamb – WR (Dallas Cowboys) – Sleeper ADP: Pick 1.10
With the 1.07, I’m shifting back to WR with my WR4 off the board in Ceedee Lamb. Obviously this guy was a huge disappointment to those that drafted him last year, as he finished as the WR20 overall and the WR14 in FPPG while being drafted as the WR3 (at around pick 1.06). But just taking those rankings at face-value is failing to consider the context of the 2025 season, as things were much rosier if you get into the weeds a bit.
Lamb had two games last year where he had limited participation: Week 3 (high ankle sprain and logged 9% of the snaps) where he had 0 points, and Week 18 (a throwaway game where he logged 45% of the snaps) with 0.9 points. If you just take those two performances out of the sample, he was at 13.5 FPPG instead of 11.7 FPPG. That would get him to the WR10 in FFPG, which isn’t a huge jump, but he’d only be 0.9 FPPG behind the WR6. So we’re starting to get there with Lamb.
The other thing to consider with Ceedee is the injuries he battled through last year. That high ankle sprain he suffered in Week 3 of 2025 kept him out for essentially four games of the season, and that was followed up by a very nasty concussion in Week 14. He never looked quite right after that concussion, only averaging 9.8 FPPG from Weeks 15 to 17. If we’re looking at the games he was totally healthy and not battling through something (and even that’s tough to do because he was likely still dealing with limited mobility due to the high ankle sprain), Lamb ends up with 14.8 FPPG. That would’ve put him 0.9 FPPG behind Ja’Marr Chase last year.
If Lamb doesn’t have nagging injuries throughout the season, we’ve seen the result: WR6 in 2022 (when Dak only played 12 games), WR1 in 2023 (when Dak played a full season) and WR8 in 2024 (when Dak only played 8 games and Ceedee only played 15 games). I get that Dak has an increased injury risk with his spotty past and increasing age, but I highly doubt we see another lost season for Ceedee given how durable he was for the three years prior to last. Plus, Ceedee has shown that he can perform despite missing Dak for periods of time.
And I know what you’re going to say: “But Ceedee has to compete with Pickens now, something he didn’t have to do in those prior years”. Have you heard the saying “a rising tide lifts all boats”? I think that’s appropriate in this argument, as Ceedee still had 7+ targets in games where he played more than 50% of the snaps last year, and his average depth of target increased significantly from what it was in prior years (11.7 last year vs 7.6 in 2024). This is not the same offense Lamb operated out of in the past – it’s better, with 2nd-year HC/play-caller Brian Schottenheimer putting a greater emphasis on the explosive pass-game and getting PIckens + Ceedee the ball. Fade Ceedee at your own risk, as I could see him getting right back to the WR1 position in fantasy with how exciting this offense is projected to be.
Top Three Picks of Round 2
- Chase Brown: RB (Cincinnati Bengals) – Sleeper ADP Pick 2.04
That’s right baby, if I’m picking at the turn and arrive at the 2.01, you can bet your bottom dollar that I’m taking Chase Brown with no hesitation (and pairing him with guys like Lamb, Jeanty, or the guy I have up next in this analysis seems like a bit of a cheat code if I’m being honest). I already went pretty far in depth as to why I have Brown as the RB5 in my rankings, which you can read here. But the TLDR is this:
- Over the last 10 games of the season (once Flacco acclimated to the Bengals offense, with Burrow coming back in Week 13), Brown was the RB3 in FFPG (18.9) in a stretch where he never had a game under 12.5 fantasy points. He finished as a top 15 RB in every week except for one, showing the kind of consistency you can get from this league winner;
- As was the case with James Cook, Brown has a decreased injury risk due to his age (recently turned 26) and his usage (only three games where he had a snap share over 75%). Brown played 17 games in 2025 and 16 games in 2024, so I’m feeling pretty solid about getting consistent production throughout the season;
- Even if the CIN defense is better and Brown receives less dump offs than last year (as the Bengals were playing from behind regularly), reports are that he’s getting more designed looks as a pass-catcher (after having only 13.8% of his targets on designed looks last year, the lowest of any top 10 RB in targets). Even if his bump in designed looks isn’t too significant, playing from ahead would only result in more rushing work for Brown, which was an area he was extremely efficient in over his last ten games (4.8 YPC over that span, when the defense actually had to worry about the Bengals passing attack due to Flacco/Burrow being in).
- There should be at least moderate improvement to the Cincinnati offensive line after they return all five starters from last year, with two specific starters prime for growth this year (third-year OT Amarius Mims and second-year OG Dylan Fairchild).
Taking that all into account, it’s hard for me to see Brown finishing any lower than RB10 on the year, with the upside to get into the RB3 mix (as he was over the back half of last season). He’s currently going at his floor as the RB10, so I’m all over Brown in drafts this year.
- Omarion Hampton: RB (LA Chargers) – Sleeper ADP Pick 2.02
I’m good with Hampton right at his ADP this year, as even Mike McDaniels’ comments about a three-headed backfield can’t scare me away from this stud.
The reasons for that: (i) I truly believe that if this offense stays somewhat healthy, they will be a Top 10 offense in the NFL, (ii) there is no better RB on this roster to eat up redzone touches, (iii) McDaniels had Achane and Mostert at RB3 and RB4 in FPPG in 2023, showing the capability to get top-end production from multiple backs, and (iv) even if the Chargers OLine does get injured, I trust in McDaniels to get the most out of his RBs (as he did with Achane last year behind one of the worst OLines in football).
I’ve seen some slander online regarding Hampton, where some people have said they’re “unsure of the talent”. My brothers in Christ, did you watch the guy play last year??? Granted, he did take a few weeks to get going while only scoring 7.1 points against the Chiefs (best run defense in the league) and 3 points against the Raiders (he played 62% of the snaps). After all, he was a rookie, so some growing pains were expected (especially when sharing the backfield with a vet in Najee Harris). Then Week 3 came, and Hampton got 79% of the snaps, 25 touches, 129 scrimmage yards, and 1 TD. Against arguably the best defense in the league in Denver. He followed that up with a 25 point fantasy performance against the Giants in Week 4, and was on his way to another good performance in Week 5 before going down with a high ankle sprain that plagued him through the rest of the season. Once he became “the guy” in LAC following Week 2, he was the RB9 in FPPG. And that’s not even taking into account that his snap share was lower than 60% in four of the seven games he played after Week 2. I’d call that talent.
Something I loved about Hampton last year is something McDaniels is so good at maximizing: his receiving ability. We’ve all seen what McDaniels did with Achane over the last few years, and Hampton had 5+ receptions in four of his seven games following Week 2. The guy absolutely has the chops to be a good receiving back, and even if he splits this work with his fellow RBs, I’m still thinking he gets up to around 100 scrimmage yards per game with a few receptions mixed in. Are you starting to get the picture yet?
Hampton is going as the RB8, so the price is still high to acquire him. But if he was the RB9 as the 1A in his relatively healthy games last year, with a better offensive line and scheme, I don’t see how he doesn’t finish as the RB8 or higher this year. Feed me Hampton at cost, and watch this offense get to work while averaging around 25-28 PPG.
- AJ Brown: WR (New England Patriots) – Sleeper ADP Pick 2.08
I’m getting a little spicy with this one. Brown is currently being picked as the WR8 at pick 2.08, while I have him as the WR5 and am comfortable taking him as early as pick 2.03. It’s not that much of a reach, but I still wouldn’t expect him to be picked in many leagues at the 2.02 or earlier, so I think you can get some value here. What else is there to say other than this: you won’t see many guys that have (i) good track records of availability, (ii) that are still under 30 years old, and (iii) with the upside to finish as a top 3 WR after moving teams in the offseason. There’s a clear tier break between the top 8 WRs for me and Nico Collins, so if Brown is the last one on the board of those top 8, consider yourself lucky.
To start things off, let’s look at Brown’s recent past on the Eagles. He’s never started less than 13 games over his seven year career, and he’s played the full 17 game schedule in two of his last four seasons (2022 & 2023). In those two seasons, he ended up as the WR5 and the WR7. In the 2024 season, where Kellen Moore was the Eagles OC and they had the lowest pass-rate in the NFL (43.7%), Brown still ended up as the WR12 in FPPG with 14.1. And he was dealing with hamstring and knee issues throughout that year while gutting it out to play 13 games. Then, last year, Brown stayed somewhat healthy through 15 games and finished as the WR11 in FPPG (all while playing in one of the worst offensive schemes in the NFL). With the Eagles again ranking bottom 5 in the NFL in pass-rate. Some people were saying that Brown lost a step last year, but if you take into account his limited opportunity (with the Eagles’ low pass-rate), and him still finishing as a WR1 (in FPPG) with scheme limitations, I’d say that’s overblown.
Now, Brown is getting the opportunity to play as the clear #1 threat in a Josh McDaniels offense in New England. This isn’t like Stefon Diggs for the Patriots last year, where Diggs was only on the field for about 55% of the snaps while receiving inconsistent volume (though Diggs still finished with over 1,000 receiving yards, showing the upside of this offense). No, Brown is going to maintain the snap shares that he had in PHI, as everything I’ve seen through the offseason (i.e. the 1st round draft capital given up to acquire Brown, taking on his full contract, how McDaniels and Vrabel have talked about him) indicates that he’s going to be the pass-catching workhorse of this offense. It’s not like McDaniels hasn’t done this before, as we saw it with Randy Moss in ‘07 (Patriots) and Davante Adams in 2022 (Raiders). Those WRs finished as the WR1 and the WR3 in their respective seasons with McDaniels. Bottom line: if McDaniels has a bonafide #1 big-body WR, he’s getting them production.
And boy oh boy, could this Patriots offense be any more efficient in the pass game? In 2025, Drake Maye was 4th in the NFL in passing yards (4,394) while only being 10th in dropbacks and 12th in pass attempts. For reference, Jalen Hurts was 16th in dropbacks, 17th in pass attempts, and more than 1,000 passing yards behind Maye (3,224) while only playing one less game. I still expect the ball to be spread around a bit more in NE than it was in PHI, and I understand that the Patriots have to play a tougher schedule. But a counterpoint to that: with a harder schedule, is it not possible that the Patriots will have to throw the ball more when trying to stay in close games? There were more than a few games last year where the Pats were able to just grind out the second half of games because they were already up by multiple scores. I wouldn’t expect that to be the case this year as they take on Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Chicago in three of their first seven matchups.
All told – I’m sold on Brown being a top 5 WR this year, and I see his floor as around WR10 to WR12 on a points-per-game basis. That’s a pretty good pick in the second round, as the upside for this pick is immense.
Top Three Picks of Round 3
- Kyren Williams: RB (LA Rams) – Sleeper ADP Pick 3.03
I expected Williams to be a little further down in ADP with how much I see “Corum and Kyren are going to have a 50-50 split this year” on twitter. Or maybe people are seeing what I’m seeing: that they did split work to a pretty significant extent last year, and Kyren still finished as the RB9 in fantasy. As of right now, I’m more than comfortable with Williams at the 3.01 pick (or even higher if RBs are flying off the board), and I’d take him ahead of Jerimiyah Love if they’re both still on the board.
So, let’s begin by looking further into the backfield split from last year. I’ll grant you the fact that Corum wasn’t very involved in the rush game until after Week 6, as Kyren was averaging 15.8 rush attempts per game through the first six outings while Corum averaged 4.8 rush attempts per game. But then, things shifted quite severely. From Week 7 to the end of the season, Kyren was averaging 14.9 rush attempts per game while Corum averaged 10.5 rush attempts per game. That’s a 58%-42% split between the two backs when it came to rushing work. And that’s not even mentioning the split when it came to redzone work where Kyren dominated the first six games in this area (3 more touches per game and 5 more TDs) with the split becoming closer through the last eleven outings (1.5 more touches per game and 4 more TDs).
With that, you’d expect Kyren’s FPPG ranking to drop more than a few spots over the back half of the year. However, Kyren still finished as the RB10 in FPPG over the last eleven games while slotting in as the RB9 in FPPG through the first six games. So why is that the case?
Well – that comes down to the receiving work in this explosive offense, where Kyren had 44 targets, 36 receptions, 281 receiving yards, and 3 receiving TDs while Corum had 14 targets, 8 receptions, 36 receiving yards, and 0 receiving TDs. This is one thing that didn’t change throughout the season, as Kyren actually finished the season with three receptions in each of his last three outings while Corum didn’t see more than two receptions in any game. After years of being a Rams fan, it’s become clear to me that McVay is extremely big on trust. If he trusts you to be out there in a certain situation, you’re going to be the guy when that situation comes. I’m not saying Corum can’t improve in this area, but with the trust McVay has in Kyren when it comes to passing situations (both as a receiver and as a blocker), I don’t see this split changing much.
There’s also one more thing to consider here: the Rams defence. Now obviously, the Rams offense stayed ahead of the sticks last year and employed a very unique run game considering McVay’s tendencies (he was usually a lot more zone run heavy in his scheme, but shifted to more man/gap looks last year). This resulted in very good rushing efficiency. However, due to the Rams lack of talent on defence (which showed up most often in the back half of last year), there weren’t many games where the Rams could just salt away the 4th quarter while leading by multiple scores. Opposing teams were usually just close enough where the passing offense had to keep the pedal to the metal to close games out. If you’re telling me the additions of DE Myles Garrett, CB Trent McDuffie, CB Jaylen Watson, and (hopefully) DT Aaron Donald don’t result in fewer close games, you’re crazy. This should create even more opportunities for both RBs in the run game, where I’m expecting each guy to exceed their rush attempt totals from last year.
So we have the same level of offense (top 5 in the NFL), the same brilliant scheme, the same OLine, a projection of similar usage in this backfield, and a 26 year old RB who’s been the RB9, the RB7, and the RB6 in fantasy over the last three years. But he’s being taken as the RB14 this year? Give me Kyren in every 3rd round I can get him, as it’s hard to find a more reliable fantasy asset at the RB position.
- Chris Olave: WR (New Orleans) – Sleeper ADP Pick 3.07
That’s right – I gotta follow my rankings and the trust I have in Olave if I’m up at pick 3.02. To be fair, I’m not a big fan of the majority of guys going in the third round this year (as there are quite a few guys that I’m higher on in the 4th round). But Olave still ranks as my WR10, just behind Nico Collins (who’s ADP is at pick 2.11). So I wouldn’t say this is exactly a reach for me.
That all being said, you don’t have to look too far to see the clear hole in Olave’s profile: availability. Looking at Olave’s track record over his four NFL seasons, I was actually surprised to see that he’s played in 15+ games three times. The glaring issue is Olave’s 2024 season, where he suffered two pretty severe concussions which resulted in him missing more than half the season. There were talks last offseason that Olave might actually have to call it quits to protect himself from further head trauma. Not something you want to see for such a bright young star.
But then – 2025 happens. Olave banks a 16 game season and ends up as the WR6 in total fantasy points and the WR9 in FPPG (13.7). But that finish is a bit deceptive, as he was playing with a bottom five QB in Spencer Rattler through the first eight games of the season. In those eight games, Olave was the WR10 in overall fantasy points and the WR19 in FPPG. That’s not bad, but it’s certainly not good enough for a WR that’s being taken at the 2nd/3rd round turn.
Then – the Saints handed the reins to rookie QB Tyler Shough in Week 9. With Shough leading this offense, Olave showed league-winning form while finishing as the WR6 in total fantasy points and the WR3 in FPPG from Weeks 9 to 17 (the FPPG rank is more informative, as the Saints had a late bye week last year while other top-end WRs had their bye week earlier in the season). With Shough as the starter for eight games, Olave only had two performances with less than 11.5 fantasy points while posting 17.5+ fantasy points four separate times. He ended the season on a heater with weekly performances as the WR10, WR2, and WR2 over his last three outings. I know they played the Panthers, the Jets, and the Titans over that span, but it’s clear that Shough was also becoming more comfortable in the Kellen Moore offense.
Now, there are things to consider this year. One thing that popped up unexpectedly was a blood clot issue that caused him to miss Week 18 last year. However, all reports are that this will no longer be a concern as he was cleared to be a full-go in camp. The Saints were so confident in Olave and his availability that they recently signed him to a 4 year extension worth $132 million with $90 million guaranteed. I know the WR market is going crazy right now, but you don’t make that kind of commitment if you have major concerns over a player’s health.
Another thing to consider is the Saints investing Top 10 NFL Draft capital in standout WR Jordyn Tyson. The thing is, I see this as a positive more than a negative for Olave. You know this team will have a high pass-rate (5th in 2025) and a fast pace of play (10th in plays per game in 2025). With more attention diverted from Olave to account for Tyson, things should be even more efficient in the pass-game, which would make up for any decrease in target share for Olave. Last year, everyone knew where the ball was going in this passing attack. This year, defenses will have to play the Saints with more respect for both sides of the field, and I see Olave benefiting from that. The worst case is that Tyson’s injury issues persist and Olave just goes back to what he was doing at the tail-end of last year. Further, we should see even more improvement from Shough with another year of experience in this system, and the Saints have the third easiest strength of schedule (per Warren Sharp).
While you can see Olave’s elevated injury risk, it’s clearly baked into the ADP after we saw Olave finish as the WR6 last year. The upside for this guy is breaking into the Top 5 in both total fantasy points and FPPG, so I’m happy to take a shot on him in the third round.
- Devonta Smith: WR Philadelphia Eagles – Sleeper ADP Pick 3.11
I wouldn’t blame people for considering George Pickens, Malik Nabers, Rashee Rice, or Javonte Williams in this spot, as those would be my next four favourites in Round 3 (in that order). However, I’m seeing Smith as the safest guy with the most consistency among that group (though he still has the upside to finish as a top 10 WR in an Eagles offense that should show notable improvement this year).
One big reason for that is the Eagles’ change at OC this year, as they go from one of the most disjointed offensive schemes I’ve ever seen with Kevin Patullo to a promising offensive scheme with Sean Mannion. I touched on this in my analysis of Jalen Hurts in a previous article, where I said I was optimistic for this passing attack despite the fact that Mannion is a first-time playcaller in the NFL. For those not familiar with Mannion, he served as an offensive coach with the Packers during the 2024 & 2025 seasons under Matt LaFleur. He was also previously a backup QB with the Rams, where he had four years to learn under Sean McVay. The guy knows what a good offense looks like, and it’s sounding like he’s going to employ a more McVay-esque scheme in Philly with more under center work, more play action, and more middle of the field throws (with Philly being far below average in using all of those concepts last season). That sounds good to me when you consider the following:
While both of those stats come from relatively small sample sizes due to previous coordinators limiting this type of work, I can’t see a world where this passing offence is even close to as bad as it was last year (as we’ve seen this type of formula lead to massive success for QB/pass-catchers like Stafford and Puka, Darnold and JSN, and Goff and Amon-Ra to name a few).
Then, we get to the other big reason for Smith being this high on my board: the departure of AJ Brown. In the two years where the Eagles had an above average offense (2022 with Steichen and 2024 with Moore), Smith was the WR15 and the WR16 in FPPG. In both of those years, Smith was playing second fiddle to Brown and had to share work with the alpha WR (Brown had 8.5 targets/game and 7.5 targets/game over those two seasons, while Smith had 8 targets/game and 6.8 targets/game). I like Dontayvion Wicks as much as the next guy, and I think Makai Lemon can have a good second-half of the season as a rookie (his first half will be stunted as he continues to miss offseason work). But there’s just no way Smith’s competition for targets will be close to what it has been in the past (especially in the redzone).
Smith’s played 16+ games in four of his five seasons. He’s finished as a mid-range WR2 (in FPPG) when the Eagles offense has been competent. The guy had 7+ receiving TDs in three of the last four seasons. And this is all while AJ Brown commanded a significant target share within the offense. He’s currently going as the WR15. I’d understand that if AJ Brown was still in this offense, but with Smith as the #1 target, I’m all over him in the 3rd round of fantasy drafts.
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