Previous Editions of Rankings & ADP Outliers for the Preseason:
Fantasy Football – Top 12 QB Rankings & ADP Outliers – Preseason Edition
TEs are my favourite position group when it comes to the NFL. They’re the true “glue guys” on offense with skill versatility that allows for offenses to become unpredictable if deployed in the right way. We’ve all seen the best offenses in the NFL lean more into 12 (2 TEs on the field) and 13 (3 TEs on the field) personnel in order to create mismatches against defenses – the most obvious case being the LA Rams last year. But in fantasy football, having a stud TE that you can set-and-forget may be even more valuable than that, as you create a positional advantage against opposing managers who don’t have one of those five-six game-changers (I wanted to say six-seven, but that’s sacrilege around these parts).
I’d bet my bottom dollar that if you sniped Tyler Warren (TE9 (8th/9th round pick) by ADP, finished as TE4) or Harold Fannin (TE38 (last round pick/waiver wire pickup) by ADP, finished as TE6) in drafts last year, you were laughing on your way to a playoff berth. The same could be said if you drafted Trey McBride last year, as his fantasy point total as the TE1 (252.9) was almost 100 points higher than TE2 Kyle Pitts (166.8). That’s some true difference-making production, though we have to consider that multiple upper-echelon TEs suffered injuries which skewed the finals rankings (George Kittle, Tucker Kraft, and Brock Bowers were all Top 5 in fantasy points-per-game, but they each missed 5+ games with injury).
I guess that’s always the risk considering TEs take longer to develop (acquiring more wear-and-tear as they accumulate years in the league) and the fact that 240-270 lbs individuals are attempting to block and pass-catch while running at insane weight-adjusted speeds. But the point remains – if you can get a fantasy value at TE with an elite pass-catching producer, it will make the biggest difference out of any position when it comes to your fantasy team.
My preliminary rankings are looking to do just that: find you the guys who can make a serious impact on your roster relative to draft cost. Any value in this position group can make-or-break a fantasy season, and as you’ll see, there are a few guys who I’ve highlighted to make your fantasy season; and a few guys who have the potential to break your fantasy heart. So without further ado, let’s get into it.
* All TEs in italics are highlighted as being significantly higher/lower than their current Sleeper ADP, and will be covered in the analysis section underneath the rankings. Rankings/ADPs are based on ½ PPR fantasy scoring.
TE Rankings:
TE 1: Brock Bowers: Sleeper ADP at 2.7 as TE2. Comfortable with him right around ADP. I’ve never been the “pick an early TE” guy (sometimes to my detriment), but this year I might be turning a new leaf. Obviously last year was a disappointment for Bowers, but let’s look at the context. He was in arguably the worst offensive environment in the NFL, with the ghost of Geno Smith tossing him the rock, and he still finished as the TE4 on a fantasy points-per-game basis (12.0 FPPG). Now add in the fact that he was playing on a severely damaged PCL/bone bruise in his knee from Weeks 2-4 (putting up 6.3, 7.8, and 7.1 over that span) before sitting out until Week 9 to get healthy. If we take his average PPG and exclude those three weeks, we end up with 13.7 FPPG. That would’ve had him as the TE2. This year, the scheme is completely revamped, as offensive mastermind Klint Kubiak takes the reins when it comes to playcalling. Kubes actually has history with Kirk Cousins, as he was the OC and playcaller for MIN in 2021 when Cousins had over 4,200 passing yards and 33 passing TDs. I’m not saying Cousins reverts to that form after all these years, and there is the possibility that Vegas transitions to #1 overall pick Mendoza sooner rather than later. That being said, Bowers has the same target competition as he had last year (which is none), and I highly doubt this offense can be worse than the lowest scoring unit in the NFL (which they were last year). Lock in Bowers as a set-and-forget piece that will command targets like an elite WR1.
TE 2: Colston Loveland: Sleeper ADP at 4.8 as TE3. Comfortable with him in the early-to-mid 4th round, just ahead of ADP. No disrespect to McBride with this ranking, as I think he’s the better all-around TE when compared to Loverboy. This is purely situational, where I think Loveland is in a position to pop off and join the elite of the elites at TE. Loveland got off to a very slow start after missing a chunk of last year’s offseason due to recovery from AC joint surgery. The guy had 17.1 total fantasy points through the first 8 weeks of the regular season: pee-yew. Then – we saw his breakout in a Week 9 shootout vs CIN where he went for 26.8 points with a statline of 6 receptions, 118 receiving yards, and 2 TDs. From that point on, he was the TE4 in fantasy, averaging 11 FPPG and outscoring everyone not named McBride, Kittle, and Bowers. The guy had 10+ targets in each of his last four games, which included an 8 reception, 137 yard performance against Green Bay in the Wild Card game. Considering that (i) DJ Moore is gone from this pass-catching room (85 vacated targets), (ii) Loveland has one more year of comfortability in a Ben Johnson system that allowed Rookie TE Sam LaPorta to finish as the TE1 in 2023, and (iii) the chemistry with Loveland and Caleb only continues to build, it would be crazy to fade this guy at cost. So I’m not – he checks in as my TE2.
TE 3: Trey McBride: Sleeper ADP at 2.6 as TE1. See Analysis Below.
TE 4: Tyler Warren: Sleeper ADP at 5.3 as TE4. Comfortable with him in the early-to-mid 5th round range. I actually have Warren going right after McBride if I’m on the clock, and he might’ve been even higher in my rankings if there wasn’t any concern with Daniel Jones post-achilles tear. Warren is a player that’s cut from the same cloth as George Kittle (in the sense that both players can block and pass-catch at high levels), and his 2025 season showed a continued trend of rookie TEs showing up and getting to work immediately. From Week 1 to Week 13 last year (Daniel Jones tore his achilles in Week 14), Warren was the TE3 averaging 10.7 FPPG. Not only was he shooting his way up the TE ranks, he was doing so with consistency, where he only had two out of twelve games under 7 fantasy points. HC and offensive play-caller Shane Steichen pushed for this guy in the 1st round of the 2025 NFL Draft because he had a vision: a vision he immediately executed on to great success. It’s the exact same supporting cast this year, except for the 111 vacated targets leftover due to Michael Pittman’s departure in the offseason (and no replacement player acquired to fill in that gap). I don’t think that 140-150 targets for Warren this year is out of the question (he had 112 last year), which would put him on par with Brock Bowers’ 2024 season (where he was the TE1) and Travis Kelce’s 2022 season (where he was the TE1). Add in a few more tush push TDs for Warren to save Daniel Jones from himself (Warren had six tush push attempts last year and converted one into a TD), and finishing as the TE1 appears easily in the cards for this fella.
TE 5: Tucker Kraft: Sleeper ADP at 6.9 as TE6. Comfortable with him in the mid 6th round range. We all know there’s a clear top 4 this year when it comes to the TE position, but don’t sleep on Kraft Mac & Cheese. Many had the initial thought that it would take until Week 3/4 of 2026 for Kraft to get back to 100% after suffering a torn ACL in the middle of last year. However, we got news that Kraft was activated off the PUP to start camp and will be practicing with the team in full shortly. If his health progresses and there aren’t any setbacks, I’d expect Kraft to bump up in ADP to around 6.2-6.5. I’m good with this guy around that 6.5 range, as he might be the most valuable pass-catcher in Green Bay’s offense come Week 1 (as he was when healthy last year). In his 7 full games in 2025, Kraft only fell below 8 fantasy points one time, and he surpassed 14 fantasy points three times. A high consistency level, mixed with high upside, is my favourite profile in fantasy football. Add in the fact that Green Bay has 131 vacated targets available following the offseason losses of Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs (with no notable WR’s signed to replace them), and it isn’t hard to get there with the best YAC TE in the NFL (Kraft was 1st in the NFL last year with 10.8 yards-after-catch per reception). If you want to say the YAC goes down because Kraft will need to ramp up after the ACL tear, that’s fine with me because the volume is still there to soften the blow while he gets back to full speed. Things only go really bad if we see a TJ Hockenson-esque decline in mobility here. That’s something I don’t see happening, as Hockenson was in his 6th NFL season when he tore his ACL and MCL, while Kraft was in his 3rd NFL season and only tore his ACL. Full steam ahead.
TE 6: Sam LaPorta: Sleeper ADP at 7.7 as TE8. See Analysis Below.
TE 7: Harold Fannin Jr.: Sleeper ADP at 6.8 as TE5. Comfortable with him in the late 7th round range, so likely won’t have any shares of him this year. This was a tough one for me, as I have Fannin and LaPorta quite close. Fannin being the #1 option on one of the most dogshit offenses in football; Laporta being the 2nd/3rd option on one of the best offenses in football. Two separating factors resulted in Fannin falling to TE7: (i) playcaller changes for both teams favour LaPorta (Drew Petzing is his OC now after serving as Trey McBride’s playcaller the last 3 years) over Fannin (Todd Monken is his playcaller now, a downgrade from TE-friendly OC Tommy Rees who he had last year), and (ii) touchdown production is becoming more important in fantasy football following implementation of the new kickoff rules, leading me to favour redzone target-earners in good offenses:
I still think Fannin earns a high number of targets as the most proven, and likely the most effective, pass-catcher on the Browns to start the year (making him a viable option in PPR). But his lack of touchdown upside, coupled with Browns draft-day selections of WRs KC Concepcion (pick 24) and Denzel Boston (pick 39), leads me to think he underperforms at current cost. Fannin’s safe, but his ceiling seems rather low compared to those ranked above him.
TE 8: George Kittle: Sleeper ADP at 9.4 as TE10. Comfortable with him in the late 8th round range, reaching just ahead of ADP. Regardless of the injury concerns that come with a 32 year old TE fresh off an achilles tear, I’m still in on Kittle (barring severe negative developments through camp). In reality, I think those concerns are baked into the ADP. Kittle continues to reiterate that he’s aiming for a Week 1 return, but I’d be surprised if he’s back before Week 3/4. Let’s be honest: if there were no concerns about the achilles, I’d guess Kittle is going three to four rounds earlier as the TE 4/5. That would be justified (and maybe even underselling Kittle a bit) given the fact that he was the TE2 last year in FPPG (12.8), ranking just behind Trey McBride. If Kittle is on the field, he’s getting the high-value work that only elite TEs can attain. And I get there’s concern for the “If Kittle is on the field” sentiment given his spotty injury history (even pre-achilles tear). But let’s look at the supporting cast on the 49ers offense: (i) he’s insulated at QB with Mac Jones as the best backup in the NFL, (ii) the highest 2025 target-earner Christian McCaffrey is coming off a season with 450 touches at 30 years old and has missed three full seasons over the last six years, (iii) projected WR1 Mike Evans is 33 years old and has only played 22 out of a possible 34 games the last two years, and (iv) newly signed WR2 Deebo Samuel is 30 years old and hasn’t exceeded 100 targets since 2021. When Kittle gets on the field, it’s likely that he’s first or second in targets on the team, with the upside to be hyper-targeted should more than one of these guys go down. You can take Kittle, and follow that up with TE Jake Tonges (a Top 12 TE over the weeks Kittle missed last year) as your last pick in the draft to form one of the more insulated TE rooms in fantasy football – with huge upside should everything bounce your way. Count me in on WWE fanatic George Kittle.
TE 9: Dalton Kincaid: Sleeper ADP at 8.12 as TE9. Comfortable with him in the late 8th round range, but just after Kittle. Kincaid falls just behind Kittle in the ranks, but I wouldn’t argue with anyone who has him slightly ahead of Kittle at this point. It’s the “young, athletic, unreliable pass-catcher that can only get on the field for 50-60% of snaps vs the old, weathered, reliable pass-catcher that earns 85-95% of snaps” discussion, one where I lean toward the guy being on the field consistently. However, it’s probable we see an uptick in Kincaid’s snap share this year following an injury-plagued 2025 season, one where his damaged PCL always seemed to hold him back. Say what you want about Kincaid’s blocking deficiencies keeping him off the field, but his highest snap share in a game last year was 55% compared to 2024 where he had a higher snap share in six of his first nine games. Bottom line: the injury kept him off the field more than his lack of blocking ability. Even taking Kincaid’s reduced 2025 snap share into account, he still averaged 10.5 FPPG over his first eight games before the wheels really fell off and he missed three straight weeks. If we take that pace and apply it to 15 games played (accounting for a couple weeks missed due to injury), he ends up as the TE3 last year, falling 0.5 points shy of Kyle Pitts. Now, all reports indicate that Kincaid has fully recovered from the PCL plague of 2025, and the only notable addition to this Bills pass-catching room is a past-his-prime DJ Moore. There’s serious upside to be had with this pick, but obvious risk as we don’t have a fail-safe to draft late if things get hairy on the health front (which we do have with Kittle). Do you like high stakes gambling? If so, you’ll reach ahead of ADP and grab Kincaid.
TE 10: Oronde Gadsden II: Sleeper ADP at 9.7 as TE11. Comfortable with him in the mid 9th round range, reaching slightly ahead of ADP. Maybe I should be even more bullish on Gadsden, as there’s a case to be made that he’s a Kincaid clone with (i) a better playcaller when it comes to big-slot TEs, and (ii) more TD upside due to Josh Allen’s propensity to punch in scores inside the five yard line. I’m still taking both guys around cost, though I can see a world where I have these guys flipped in the rankings come the end of preseason. Gadsden stepped onto the scene as a rookie last year and made an impact in a way that no fantasy analyst saw coming. Even the most bullish Gadsden supporter couldn’t have seen him rank as the TE2 in FPPG from Week 6 (when he started getting above 55% of snaps) to Week 9 (when Joe Alt got injured and Gadsden’s role/usage completely changed to account for the Charger’s porous OLine). It’s only a four game sample size, but it goes to show what this guy’s ceiling could be given the right opportunity. Well, that opportunity is more likely to come this year than not, as (i) the Charger’s OLine is fully healthy and remains top-tier, leading to more Gadsden on the field, (ii) Mike McDaniel propelled TE Jonnu Smith (similar to Gadsden as a big slot TE) to a TE4 finish in 2024, and he made a washed Darren Waller relevant in 2025, and (iii) Gadsden has one more year of comfortability in the NFL allowing him to get off to a faster start. He’d be slightly higher in these rankings if the Chargers only added TE Charlie Kolar and not TE David Njoku this offseason, but I’m leaning toward Njoku being more of a depth signing than one that will compete to split targets with Gadsden. As far as late TE dart throws go, Gadsden is one of my favorites.
TE 11: Kyle Pitts: Sleeper ADP at 7.3 as TE7. See Analysis Below.
TE 12: Dallas Goedert: Sleeper ADP at 10.9 as TE15. See Analysis Below.
TE ADP Outliers:
Trey McBride: My Ranking: TE3; Sleeper ADP: TE1
Well jeez, I really have some questions to answer after ranking McBride more than two full rounds lower than his ADP. Having him as a late 4th round/early 5th round value doesn’t seem all that defensible given his production last year, especially with the QB he was so successful with (Jacoby Brissett) returning as the starter this year. But, there are so many factors at play here that resulted in this ranking, none of which would be detrimental if they happened in isolation. When combining these factors together, you can start to get the picture of why I have him just behind Loveland.
The first is obviously the offensive system. Out goes OC Drew Petzing; in comes HC and offensive playcaller Mike Lafleur. I will say something nice about Lafleur: as a disciple of Shanahan and McVay, he utilizes motion and play-action at an above average rate (good for fantasy pass-catchers), and he had one of the highest pass rates in recent history in his only stint as a true play-caller with the Jets in 2021-22 (leading Mike White and Joe Flacco to throw for 305 yards per game over 12 starts). That’s a good sign for this passing offense; but then consider that the Cardinals pass rate last year (close to 70%, which is ridiculous) is almost 10% higher than what Lafleur employed with the Jets in that previous stint. There is absolutely no way that they can surpass that 70% rate last year, even with good gamescripts, as (i) the defense should be at least slightly improved, as they shouldn’t have the worst injury luck in the league and they return defensive playcaller Nick Rallis for another year of growth in the same system, and (ii) they just drafted RB Jeremiyah Love 3rd overall, with two other capable RBs (Tyler Allgeier and James Conner) to implement a much better run game. So while I still expect this Cardinals’ offense to pass the ball at an advanced rate, it can’t lead to as many opportunities as McBride had last season.
Next up: increased competition in this pass-catcher room. While the Cards return the exact same WR core from last year, there’s some important context that needs to be provided to explain how things turned out in 2025. Marvin Harrison Jr. has obviously been a huge disappointment since entering the league, and the videos circulating of him dropping every ball in sight at camp doesn’t really help with that perception. The fact remains that in the three full games Brissett had with Maserati Marv (when he was healthy), Marv had 6 targets, 10 targets, and 12 targets. In the five full games he had before Brissett was named the starter, Marv averaged 6.4 targets per game. If Marv is healthy for at least the majority of this year with Brissett, and breakout WR Michael Wilson still has a role in this offense, it only makes sense that McBride’s ridiculous target share goes down some. That’s especially the case when considering that RB Jeremiyah Love is one of the better pass-catching RBs to ever come out of the draft, and he’s coming into the same offensive system that gave Jets rookie RB Breece Hall 9, 11, and 6 targets in three of his first four games (in 2022). Target dilution for McBride appears inevitable if the other offensive playmakers stay remotely healthy.
And last but certainly not least: QB uncertainty throughout the season. Yes, my man Jacoby Brissett is back as the starter after getting a $10 million bump in salary (good on ya Jacobes – if they want a captain for a sinking ship, they should at least provide you with some danger pay). But how long is that really going to last when this team has a Vegas projected win total of 3.5? Once the Cardinals inevitably get to 1-10 or 2-9, the transition to either Gardiner Minshew or rookie 3rd rounder Carson Beck will be written in pen. I would bet that neither of those two guys are going to be as good as Brissett in providing fantasy value for the Arizona pass-catchers, and the change will likely come right as fantasy managers are gearing up for a fantasy playoff run. If you take a TE in the 2nd round of fantasy drafts, you most definitely don’t want them crapping out at the most important point of the fantasy season.*
*While Brock Bowers has this same concern regarding a change at QB, it doesn’t impact him nearly as much as McBride in my mind as (i) I envision the Raiders scheme and playcalling will be better than the scheme/playcalling in Arizona, and (ii) I see Mendoza as much more capable than Beck/Minshew.
All of that’s to say one thing – this is a new year, and McBride’s magical season last year took numerous factors playing out in his favour for it to end up as it did. I won’t have any shares of him this season, and come late in the 2026 fantasy season, I think I’ll be happy that’s the case.
Sam LaPorta: My Ranking: TE6; Sleeper ADP: TE8
I guess I’m not too far off from consensus (TE8) when it comes to LaPorta being my TE6, but the difference comes from the fact that I’m comfortable with reaching for him almost a full round ahead of ADP. In my mind, this guy is an extreme value in drafts. Whether his depressed ADP comes from multiple years of disappointment after finishing as the TE1 in his rookie year, or injury concerns stemming from his back surgery last year – or a combination of the two – I’ll never know. What I do know is this: if LaPorta stays relatively healthy this year, he will easily be in the running to be a Top 5 TE in fantasy. The only reason he can’t be in the running for finishing as the overall TE1 is because unlike his rookie season, Jameson Williams has firmly established himself as a 90-100 target guy in this offense. But I digress.
Let’s start with this: a little look back so we can clear up some misconceptions that people have with LaPorta due to sky-high expectations in previous years. In the 2024 draft season, LaPorta became the new hotness following his rookie season, and people were drafting him accordingly (second TE off the board, right after Travis Kelce). What he did that year was not spectacular: 16 games played and finished as the TE7. It seemed a lot worse due to his draft price, but in reality, it was a serviceable season based on the current draft price. Then, during last year’s draft season, expectations kind of came back down to earth with LaPorta’s ADP at TE4 (with a notable drop off between him and the top three guys: Bowers, McBride, and Kittle). From Weeks 1-10 (Laporta was out following Week 10 due to the back injury), LaPorta was the TE7. Again – he failed you when it came to his draft price, but it was a perfectly adequate season if you extrapolate that over 17 games and consider that he wasn’t around for most of the games when this passing offense really took off (once they switched from OC John Morton calling the plays to HC Dan Campbell calling them). In sum: had LaPorta just played a full season over the past two years, his baseline is a TE7 finish. And now the draft community has him as the TE8. You can see where I’m starting to see the value.
Then, we get to the guy that will be calling the plays for the Lions‘ offense this year: Mr. Drew Petzing. Some of you might remember him as the OC of the Cardinals for the last three years. You know, the guy who I just mentioned as having a 70% pass rate in 2025? While a lot of that was born out of necessity due to the Cardinals always trailing in games and having a poor RB room, it’s very easy to see the Lions passing the ball more without the two-headed backfield of Montgomery/Gibbs (as Monty is now on the Texans). Gibbs will obviously have an increase in workload, but he can’t take up all of the 182 opportunities Monty accounted for last year without falling apart. And if you think Pacheco is going to be given even close to that many opportunities – I’m going to have to kindly disagree with you.
But on top of the fact that I think we see a higher pass rate in the Lions’ offense this year, there’s also the sterling track record Petzing has with Trey McBride, one that instills even more confidence in LaPorta. Ryan Heath (fantasy expert with fantasypoints.com, real smart guy) pointed this out in a recent article: “Petzing leads all qualifying playcallers (20+ games) in TE FPPG since 2021 (19.3) … Trey McBride has hit a 75% route participation rate in each of his last 29 games under Petzing. LaPorta’s production across 18 career games he’s played that much (15.9 FPG) far outstrips every non-McBride TE since he entered the league” (note: those figures are in PPR scoring). I know LaPorta isn’t a McBride-level talent based on what we’ve seen the last few years, but I don’t think he’s so far off that these usage statistics are meaningless. Plain and simple, Petzing knows how to feed a good TE.
It’s fair to have concerns over LaPorta’s health despite the fact that all training camp reports have been glowing, as back injuries can be tricky. But right now, if LaPorta plays even 14 games this year, TE8 seems to be his floor. If things go right and he can play a McBride-lite role in this offense, Top 5 seems easily within the cards. For those reasons, LaPorta may be one of my highest exposures across fantasy leagues this year.
Kyle Pitts: My Ranking: TE11; Sleeper ADP: TE7
Kyle Pitts, my sweet prince. I really wish I could’ve ranked Pitts close to his ADP, as I’ve been a fan of his untapped potential since he finished his rookie season with over 1,000 receiving yards in 2021. This guy laid claim to the highest scoring TE fantasy week of all-time (Week 15 last year, when he put up a 40 burger), but he barely cracks my Top 12 for a few reasons, one of which is quite obvious when looking back at 2025.
That obvious reason has a name: Drake London. Through Weeks 1 to 11 when London was healthy and a full-go in the offense, Pitts was the TE21 in FPPG (7.3). He had less FPPG than notable names such as Theo Johnson, AJ Barner, and Dalton Schultz. Yikes. Then, London missed four games (Week 12 to Week 15) due to injury, only returning for the last two games of the fantasy season (at a limited capacity, as it was clear the injury was still holding him back). From Week 12 to Week 17, Pitts was the TE3 in FPPG (14.2) and the TE2 in total fantasy points (85.1). London is back and at full health to start this season, so we already have to lower our expectations significantly for Pitts.
But let’s take an even more high-level look at Pitts’ 2025 season, one where we take away that 40 fantasy point game in Week 15 (where literally everything went right to levels never seen before) and give him his season average in points without that game (7.9). If we do that, Pitts finishes the season with 125.8 fantasy points. That would’ve resulted in a TE13 finish, a couple points behind TE12 Dalton Schultz. It might not be fair to take that game away from Pitts (as we can’t completely disregard the possibility he hits a spike week or two with his unparalleled athleticism), but it’s quite startling to see him fall that far down the ranks after switching out one game of record-breaking production for his average fantasy output over a 15 game sample size. I can’t see him putting up a 40 piece again this year (his previous career high in a game was 26.1 in 2024), so some regression is bound to happen when it comes to his fantasy finish.
Then we get to another reason for Pitts being this low in the rankings: the QB situation in Atlanta. In the back half of last year (the only time when Pitts was a startable fantasy TE), Penix was injured and Kirk Cousins came in as the starting QB. I’m not saying Cousins is some stud QB at this point in his career, but could you make the case that he’s still a bit better (from a production standpoint) than Tua Tagovailoa? I think that case can be made. In 2025, Cousins had 205.5 passing yards per game in his 8 starts (with no WRs to throw to due to London’s injury). Tua had 190 passing yards per game in his 14 starts (with Tyreek Hill healthy for 4 games, and Jaylen Waddle healthy for all 14 games, in a Mike McDaniel’s led offense). There’s some obvious nuance to those stats (i.e. a bad OLine in MIA), but from a strict production standpoint, Kirk Cousins got his pass-catchers more sustainable output than Tua did. Even if you think Michael Penix can somehow win the starting job and actually stay somewhat healthy (both big if’s), you’ve seen how he’s done with Pitts (7.4 FPPG for Pitts in that 10 game sample size).
The only thing that prevented Pitts from falling out of my Top 12 is the lack of pass-catchers ATL brought in over the offseason (though I do love rookie slot WR Zachariah Branch) and the addition of new OC/offensive playcaller Tommy Rees (who was the playcaller for Harold Fannin over the back-half of last year). Pitts is still a low-end TE1 in my books, as he will have one or two weeks where he’s a top 3 TE. I just can’t get there with him as the 7th TE off the board this year, so I’m fading Pitts everywhere I draft.
Dallas Goedert: My Ranking: TE12; Sleeper ADP: TE15
It really was close between Goedert and Kelce for this final spot in the ranks, as I see both as having safe floors with the possibility to convert in the redzone on a game-by-game basis. Goedert gets the slight edge for me after finishing as the TE5 in FPPG last year while Kelce fell to TE8.
A big reason why Goedert remained so fantasy viable last year was due to touchdown production, as he posted a career high 11 TDs which absolutely dwarfed his previous career high (a measly 5 in 2019). Goedert actually had 4 of those 11 TDs in his final three games (Weeks 13-15), ending the year in a flourish and standing out as the top redzone option in the Eagles offense. Touchdown rate can obviously fluctuate, so 11 TDs might be Goedert’s ceiling in any given year. That being said, in ½ PPR scoring, touchdowns are what’s really going to separate these low depth-of-target TEs from each other. So do you want Goedert, the guy who had 11 TDs last year, with the top pass-catcher from his offense (AJ Brown) gone? Or do you want Kelce, a guy who had 5 TDs last year, on a team who will have their top target earner (Rashee Rice) back in the fold and who just made a significant investment in the RB room (signing Kenneth Walker)? That’s definitely one of the separating factors for me between these guys, one where Goedert has the better opportunity to come out on top.
But there’s also an opportunity for Goedert to get more overall work in this offense between the 20’s, as the Eagles have changed playcallers from ex-OC Kevin Patullo, who ran one of the most disjointed schemes in the NFL last year, to new OC Sean Mannion. I highlighted Mannion in my previous article (QB Preseason Rankings, linked above) when discussing how Jalen Hurts might reach a new level this year in terms of passing production. Mannion is coming over to the Eagles after working as an offensive assistant/QB coach in Green Bay for two years, where he learned under one of the better offensive coaches in the league in Matt LaFleur. That Green Bay offense was one of the best in the NFL at optimizing TE-usage with Tucker Kraft being schemed up for success, something Mannion’s likely going to carry over (at least to some extent) in this Eagles offense.
But it’s not just the TE-usage that will result in an overall better passing offense for the Eagles. Mannion has made multiple comments this offseason regarding the offense undergoing a big change when it came to lining up under-center more as opposed to in shotgun. The Eagles had the 7th highest shotgun rate in the NFL last year (76.3%), while Green Bay had the 11th lowest (61.8%). If you look at how Hurts has performed from shotgun vs under-center over the last five years, there’s a pretty glaring difference, one that favours his production from under-center:
There’s also been a lot of talk about how Hurts can’t throw over the middle of the field (an area of the field which Goedert will frequent quite regularly). But in reality, that all seems overblown. Per PFF, almost 40% of Hurts attempts last year were between the numbers (177/445), and he had a better completion percentage on those throws (77% vs 66% outside the numbers) along with more passing yards per attempt (8.11 YPA vs 7.31 YPA outside the numbers). Add in the fact that Goedert has spoken about more easy touches being schemed up for Philly TEs this year, and we’re looking at a high floor, high upside TE that appears to be the 2nd best target in this pass-catching room:
If you wait until the later rounds to draft a TE, I can’t see many better options on the board that provide guaranteed floor-level production and the opportunity for upside.
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