Previous Editions of Rankings & ADP Outliers for the Preseason:
Fantasy Football – Top 12 QB Rankings & ADP Outliers – Preseason Edition
Fantasy Football – Top 12 TE Rankings & ADP Outliers – Preseason Edition
After covering my Top 12 QBs and TEs for the upcoming season, we now get into the meat & potatoes of fantasy football: my wide receiver rankings. This will be my favourite position group to cover in 2026, as I believe there are quite a few mispriced assets relative to their current ADPs.
It’s also the position group where I see the most value in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts this year, as I expect multiple guys priced in rounds 4-8 to exceed ADP significantly. With that being the case, I’m pretty heavily on the side of drafting two RBs in the first three rounds of your draft while you fill in your WR room through the middle rounds, picking away at QB/TE wherever you see value. This isn’t a hard-and-fast rule (going with one RB in the first three rounds is definitely doable if you see massive value on the board with early-round WRs), but it’ll be preferable in most situations.
I’m not here to drone on about the pure studs that populate the top of every analyst’s rankings going into the season (though my rankings are instructive when deciding between these top-tier talents). I’m more here to discuss the guys who have severe inflation in the ADP market, along with guys who are being undervalued in the general draft community at this point in time. As such, I’m going to be highlighting six WRs that are my outliers when it comes to their current ADP, three of which I’m fading at cost, and three I’m buying ahead of cost. Each of these guys will be included in the section underneath the rankings with detailed analysis as to why I feel this way. So without further ado, let’s get into it.
*All WRs in italics are highlighted as being significantly higher/lower than their current Sleeper ADP, and will be covered in the analysis section underneath the rankings. Rankings/ADPs are based on ½ PPR fantasy scoring & 12 team leagues.
WR Rankings:
WR 1: Ja’Marr Chase: Sleeper ADP around Pick 1.3 as WR1.
WR 2: Puka Nacua: Sleeper ADP around Pick 1.4 as WR2.
WR 3: Amon-Ra St. Brown: Sleeper ADP around Pick 1.8 as WR4.
WR 4: Ceedee Lamb: Sleeper ADP around Pick 1.10 as WR5.
WR 5: A.J Brown: Sleeper ADP around Pick 2.6 as WR8.
WR 6: Drake London: Sleeper ADP around Pick 2.3 as WR7.
WR 7: Justin Jefferson: Sleeper ADP around Pick 1.11 as WR6.
*WR 8: Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Sleeper ADP around Pick 1.7 as WR3. Fade. See Analysis Below
WR 9: Nico Collins: Sleeper ADP around Pick 2.7 as WR9.
WR 10: Chris Olave: Sleeper ADP around Pick 3.8 as WR12.
WR 11: Tee Higgins: Sleeper ADP around Pick 4.2 as WR14.
WR 12: Devonta Smith: Sleeper ADP around Pick 4.3 as WR17.
WR 13: Ladd McConkey: Sleeper ADP around Pick 4.5 as WR18.
WR 14: Zay Flowers: Sleeper ADP around Pick 4.8 as WR20.
*WR 15: Jaylen Waddle: Sleeper ADP around Pick 4.10 as WR23. Smash. See Analysis Below.
WR 16: Emeka Egbuka: Sleeper ADP around Pick 4.7 as WR19.
*WR 17: George Pickens: Sleeper ADP around Pick 3.3 as WR11. Fade. See Analysis Below.
WR 18: Malik Nabers: Sleeper ADP around Pick 4.2 as WR16.
WR 19: Rashee Rice: Sleeper ADP around Pick 2.11 as WR10.
*WR 20: Christian Watson: Sleeper ADP around Pick 6.3 as WR30. Smash. See Analysis Below.
*WR 21: Tetairoa McMillan: Sleeper ADP around Pick 4.1 as WR13. Fade. See Analysis Below.
WR 22: Garrett Wilson: Sleeper ADP around Pick 4.2 as WR15.
*WR 23: Parker Washington: Sleeper ADP around Pick 7.9 as WR36. Smash. See Analysis Below.
WR 24: Luther Burden: Sleeper ADP around Pick 4.9 as WR21.
WR 25: Terry McLaurin: Sleeper ADP around Pick 4.9 as WR22.
WR 26: Jameson Williams: Sleeper ADP around Pick 5.4 as WR24.
WR 27: Mike Evans: Sleeper ADP around Pick 5.9 as WR27.
WR 28: Rome Odunze: Sleeper ADP around Pick 6.3 as WR29.
WR 29: Davante Adams: Sleeper ADP around Pick 5.7 as WR26.
WR 30: D.J. Moore: Sleeper ADP around Pick 5.6 as WR25.
WR 31: Carnell Tate: Sleeper ADP around Pick 6.2 as WR28.
WR 32: Marvin Harrison Jr.: Sleeper ADP around Pick 7.5 as WR33.
WR 33: Brian Thomas Jr.: Sleeper ADP around Pick 6.6 as WR31.
WR 34: Alec Pierce: Sleeper ADP around Pick 7.10 as WR37.
WR 35: DK Metcalf: Sleeper ADP around Pick 7.6 as WR35.
WR 36: Stefon Diggs: Sleeper ADP around Pick 12.2 as WR54 (This will rise quite soon with the news of him signing in Washington).
Honorable Mentions: Jordyn Tyson (NO), Chris Godwin (TB), Jayden Reed (GB)
WR ADP Outliers:
Three Guys to Fade at Draft Cost
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba: My Ranking: WR8; Sleeper ADP: WR3
Breakout star and 2025 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Jaxon Smith-Njigba falls down my rankings for a few reasons, none of which are related to his talent or ability on the field. While I still believe there is a clear tier break between him and my WR9 (Nico Collins), I’m thinking things don’t fall into place as perfectly this year as they did last year for JSN. And trust me, everything did go as close to perfect as possible for him in 2025, leading to JSN’s finish as the fantasy WR2.
This’ll be a tough one to swallow for those that had JSN on their fantasy team in 2025, as he could easily be described as a “league winner” when considering his draft cost (he was WR14 in ADP, picked around the 3rd/4th round turn), how much he separated from the next closest WR in the ranks (he had approximately 43 more fantasy points on the year than WR3 Amon-Ra St. Brown, and the gap between WR3 and WR4 was only 2.1 points), and his consistency on a week-to-week basis (only one week below 11 fantasy points in 16 games played).
But as I said above – JSN’s 2025 season was a thing dreams are made of, a dream that’s very difficult to replicate when considering a few different factors. The most important factor to consider is the OC change from Klint Kubiak to Brian Fleury, who most recently served as the TE coach/run-game coordinator for San Francisco. Obviously we like guys who come from the Shanahan/McVay coaching tree, so Fleury fits the bill to some extent. However, it’s clear to anyone who’s paid attention to the NFL that this has the potential to be a notable downgrade when it comes to Seattle’s offensive playcalling. I mean, you’re going to a guy in Fleury who’s (i) never called offensive plays before, (ii) never even held the position of offensive coordinator in a complimentary role to the HC, and (iii) coached on defense/special teams for the majority of his career before joining the 49ers in 2019. And you’re departing playcaller has done things like this over his sterling career as an offensive coordinator (serving as the primary playcaller for the Saints in 2024 and the Seahawks in 2025):
I’m all for giving guys with no playcalling experience a chance (as I’m high on first-time playcallers like David Blough and Sean Mannion), but Kubiak is arguably a Top 5 offensive playcaller in the NFL who already had a year of playcalling experience prior to his stop in Seattle. I’ve never seen a guy with zero playcalling experience end up regarded as a Top 5 offensive playcaller come season’s end, so I’d expect regression in this offense as a whole.
One could make the argument that there will be more passing plays called this year, as Kubiak employed a run-heavy scheme that resulted in a 49.7% run rate (3rd highest in the NFL). However, all indications are that Fleury will want to maintain this high run rate, which makes efficiency in the passing game the only way JSN can finish in a similar spot as last year.
The key to making a passing game efficient is being able to hit on deep balls, something JSN did tremendously through all of last year. Per PFF, JSN had 16 of his receptions and 614 of his receiving yards on passing plays where the ball traveled 20+ air yards (both marks were 1st in the NFL, and there was a huge gap between him and 2nd place when it came to receiving yards on these plays). Add on the fact that he had 4 of his TDs on these plays, and JSN’s fantasy points on deep passes make up 32.3% of his total fantasy point output on the season (93.4 fantasy points on deep passes, 289 fantasy points total). No other wideout that finished as a Top 24 WR in 2025 came close to 30%, showing JSN’s reliance on deep shots when it came to his WR2 finish.
But then we have to take into account the efficiency part of this equation. With Seattle running the ball at such a high rate last year, they had less passing plays called, resulting in fewer chances to get the ball downfield. For reference, out of QBs who had 10+ starts, Sam Darnold led the NFL in 20+ air yard completion rate (58.8%) and was 4th in passing yards on these plays (1,017). That’s all while ranking 15th in pass attempts that went 20+ air yards. I mean, that’s some ridiculous efficiency.
So if Fleury can’t get as much out of the deep passing game as Kubiak did (I find it tough to believe he will, as Kubiak was the most efficient in the NFL in this area last year), and the commitment to the run remains the same (especially in the redzone, where JSN was already failing to receive many targets), then how can JSN attain the same form he had last year? That’s not even bringing up the facts that: (i) standout rookie WR Tory Horton is back in the fold after missing 9 games last year, (ii) WR Rashid Shaheed should be more involved in the offense as he was used pretty sparingly in 2025 after being acquired mid-season, and (iii) this run game without Kenneth Walker (on the Chiefs) and potentially Charbonnet to start the season could be worse, leading to more emphasis on the pass game from defenses.
I love JSN as a player, and I think he still provides value as a WR1 in fantasy. I just don’t like him at his draft cost, and I’ll be fading him in every draft I’m participating in.
- George Pickens: My Ranking: WR17; Sleeper ADP: WR11
Oh my days – did Pickens have himself a year in 2025 or what? People had some expectations for him due to his move from Pittsburgh to Dallas (he had an ADP of WR28 last year), but no one could have seen him finishing as the WR4 with career highs in receptions with 93 (previous career high was 63), yards with 1,429 (previous career high was 1,140), and TDs with 9 (previous career high was 5). Goes to show how much the situation, not talent, dictates a fantasy finish.
And now – people have bought in, with the general draft community viewing this guy as a low-end WR1 in an explosive offense with week-to-week top 5 upside. I’m here to say “not so fast” (s/o Lee Corso).
If you look back to the 2025 season, you’ll remember that Cowboys WR Ceedee Lamb effectively missed 4 full games from Weeks 3-6 with a high ankle sprain. If we look at Pickens performances from Weeks 3-6, he was averaging 21.2 FPPG as the clear WR1 in fantasy. He had two games with 27+ fantasy points, finishing as the WR1 and WR2 in those two weeks. In the 12 games where he played alongside a somewhat healthy Ceedee Lamb (the high ankle sprain still appeared to have an impact on his mobility as the season wore on), he averaged 13.3 FPPG and only finished as a weekly WR1 four times. 13.3 FPPG is still pretty damn good, but it bumps him down to WR10 last year, right behind Chris Olave who had 13.7 FPPG. So in my mind, WR10 is about his baseline when it comes to co-existing with Ceedee. But that’s not even considering the fact that even when Ceedee played last year, he looked out of sorts (having the third most drops (8) out of any WR) and lacking in explosiveness. There’s a good possibility he comes out this year looking like his former self, taking more production away from George.
Then we look at another significant factor that went in Pickens’ favour in 2025, one that led to the Cowboys having a top 10 pass rate (62%) with Dak ranking 2nd in the NFL in dropbacks (659). That factor was their piss-poor defense, a unit that couldn’t stop a nosebleed while letting up 30.1 PPG (worst in the NFL). This is a more high-level observation, but it makes sense that if you have to score more points as an offense, you’re going to be passing the ball more. Only two defenses over the last three years allowed more PPG than the Cowboys (2024 Panthers and 2023 Commanders), and at least those defenses had the excuse that their offenses were shit so they got screwed when it came to field position. No way around it, this Cowboys defense was straight ass in 2025. I’m not saying it’s going to be an elite unit this year, but I can almost guarantee that they’ll be better.
The Cowboys got rid of DC Matt Eberflus (known for being a complete failure as HC of the Bears), and they hired first-time defensive playcaller Christian Parker to take his place. While this is Parker’s first time as a DC, he was mentored during his time in Philly (where he served as the defensive pass game coordinator and DBs coach) by the great Vic Fangio. He won’t be at Fangio’s level as a playcaller this year, but I’d bet my bottom dollar that he’ll have a lot more success than Eberflus. Couple that with (i) a full season of All-Pro DT Quinnen Williams (he only played 7 games with the Cowboys last year as a mid-season acquisition), (ii) the additions of CB Cobie Durant (solid starter for the Rams) and EDGE Rashan Gary (7+ sacks in each of his last three seasons), (iii) one more year of growth for notable sophomores EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku and CB Shavon Revel, and (iv) more injections of talent with 2026 first-round NFL Draft selections S Caleb Downs (who many regarded as the best pure player in the Draft) and EDGE Malachi Lawrence. Yeah, you can start to see a unit that may actually be closer to the middle-of-the-pack than dead-fucking-last when it comes to PPG allowed. If that’s the case, it’s not crazy to think the Cowboys lean towards a higher run rate corresponding with a lower pass rate.
And then it’s on to the last of my concerns: Dak Prescott staying healthy. I’m not one to forecast injuries, but a spotty injury history with consistent stretches of missed games has to be considered when investing so heavily in a player. Not only does Pickens have to stay healthy (he missed 3 games in 2024 with a hamstring injury), but so does Dak. And if the weird trend of Prescott missing every second year continues, Pickens is in for a rude awakening this year. Last year: Dak played all 17 games. 2024: Limited to 8 games due to injury. 2023: Played all 17 games. 2022: Limited to 12 games due to injury. 2021: Played 16 games. 2020: Limited to 5 games due to injury. Obviously I’m not here to say that Dak will only play 5-12 games this year. But with three of his last six seasons ending short of 13 appearances, it’s fair to be concerned that he’ll be able to show up for 17 games at 33 years old. I’m less concerned for Ceedee, as he still finished as the WR8 in 2024 and the WR6 in 2022 with backup QBs getting multiple starts. When Pickens was with a below average QB (basically his whole time in Pittsburgh), he finished as the WR42, WR26, and WR37.
Pickens is a very good WR, and the Cowboys should absolutely get the man paid for what he’s done thus far with the organization. But it took a Ceedee Lamb injury, the worst defense in the NFL, and a full season from Dak for him to end up as the WR6 in FPPG last year. He’s still a mid-range WR2 for me this year, but there’s way too much risk for me to consider him at cost.
- Tetairoa McMillan: My Ranking: WR21; Sleeper ADP: WR13
It’s pretty funny that I love all the guys on my fade list as talents. T-Mac is no exception, as I think he has a bright future as a locked-in #1 WR once he hits his prime. It’s the situation that’s the issue for all three of them, and we saw how important that is to fantasy production in the George Pickens analysis. Picken’s talent in a bad offensive situation: finish as a high-end WR3 in fantasy. Picken’s talent in a great offensive situation: finish as a Top 12 WR.
Well, you can guess what kind of situation McMillan is in based on my ranking. Don’t get me wrong, T-Mac had a very good rookie season, one where he finished as the WR14 while only putting up 70 receptions (22nd in the NFL). The thing is, if we look at him when it comes to fantasy points-per-game, he only finished as the WR22 (10.5), finishing just behind WR Wandale Robinson (I thought he was only a cheat code in PPR last year, but this was in ½ PPR scoring). Now, some stock has to be put into the fact that this is a young guy, so injury risk isn’t as severe as it would be for someone like Mike Evans or Davante Adams. But his fantasy ceiling is one I take issue with, where I see his current ADP (WR13) as being close to the highest position he can finish in.
I mean, it’s not like we should see a big increase in targets or touchdowns this year. The guy was Top 15 in the NFL in both target share within an offense (25.4%) and total targets (120). He also finished T-11th in receiving touchdowns on the year (7), all while the Panthers finished 27th in PPG (19) with Bryce Young throwing 1.4 passing touchdowns per game. And let’s not forget – the Panthers finished 3rd place in the NFC South in 2024, giving them an easier schedule last year than the 1st place schedule they’ll face this year. I’m seeing a stretch of @ CLE, vs DET, Bye, @ PHI from Weeks 3 to 6 of the upcoming season, so there’s definitely a chance T-Mac stumbles out of the gates.
But that’s not even taking into consideration the fact that T-Mac was the be-all-end-all when it came to Carolina pass-catchers in 2025. The guy had 647 more receiving yards and 31 more receptions than the next closest guys on the Panthers (Jalen Coker with 394 receiving yards; Rico Dowdle with 39 receptions). The aforementioned Jalen Coker becomes a bit of concern to me when it comes to T-Mac’s production this year, as Coker was building up a lot of steam near the end of last season after missing Weeks 1-7 with injury.
In Carolina’s last five games of the regular season, Coker exceeded 12 fantasy points three times. In those same three games, T-Mac had 10.8 points, 3.5 points, and 8.5 points. The bottom line is this: I don’t think Bryce Young is good enough to support two WRs in the same game, and if some of the games result in Coker becoming the #1 target in the offense, you’re going to be disappointed with T-Mac. Let’s not forget, in Carolina’s most important game of the season when they took on the Rams in the Wild Card game, it was Coker who had 9 receptions, 134 receiving yards, and 1 receiving TD (23.9 fantasy points) while T-Mac had 5 receptions for 81 receiving yards and 0 TDs (10.6 fantasy points).
I’m not here to say that Coker will receive the same amount of work as T-Mac, because that’s definitely not going to be the case. But if there are enough games where Coker takes the lead, and we don’t see a notable improvement from Bryce Young (I would only think a slight improvement is in the cards), then McMillan won’t finish as a Top 15 WR. That’s not even mentioning the fact that you’ll rarely ever win a fantasy matchup on the back of McMillan, as he only finished as a weekly Top 10 fantasy WR one time over the course 17 games in 2025. All-in-all, I like McMillan as a safe WR2. But as a low-end WR2, not a borderline WR1 like he’s being drafted as.
Three Guys to Take Ahead of Draft Cost
- Jaylen Waddle: My Ranking: WR15; Sleeper ADP: WR23
It’s possible Waddle could get a bump down my list if his lower body injury in training camp drags through the preseason. But if I’m projecting a healthy Jaylen Waddle showing up on the field come Week 1, we’re looking at a high-end WR2 with the upside for a WR1 finish.
It’s funny how fast things can change in the NFL. Waddle came into Miami as a rookie in 2021 and started off strong with a WR17 finish in fantasy. His sophomore year, he took a big step forward, putting up 1,356 receiving yards (341 more than his rookie year) and 8 receiving TDs (2 more than his rookie year). This led to his finish as the WR7. And it’s not like Waddle got this production out of necessity, as Tyreek Hill had already joined the team and finished as the fantasy WR2 in the same year. The future was looking so bright for Waddle and Miami’s offense entering 2023, where expectations were sky high and very little had changed when it came to player personnel.
But then, Miami’s offense changed. McDaniels went a lot more run-heavy in 2023, especially in the redzone where Achane and Mostert combined for 26 rushing TDs (where Miami RBs had only combined for 9 rushing TDs the year before). The offense as a whole was more efficient, and Miami won more games that year. Even Tyreek Hill remained productive, finishing as the WR2 to match his finish in 2022. That left Waddle as the odd man out, as there’s only one ball to go around in an NFL offense. He still had over 1,000 receiving yards in 14 games played (14th in the NFL in receiving yards per game), but his targets went down and so did his TDs. He finished as the WR34, and ever since then, he’s been trending downwards as the Miami offense slowly disintegrated.
That all being said – Miami was 24th in pass rate last year, and even when they did pass, it looked like absolute shit due to (i) a below average QB, (ii) a terrible OLine, and (iii) an extremely high checkdown rate with Achane out of the backfield. To cap it all off, there weren’t many TDs to be had in this offense, as they finished 25th in PPG (20.4). Even with those obvious external limitations in play, Waddle salvaged a WR23 finish out of the season. It’s clear that Tyreek Hill going down in Week 4 contributed to Waddle’s finish, but now Waddle’s going into Denver as the clear WR1 in the offense and he’s still being drafted as the WR23? In an offense that’s allowed their top WR for the last two years (Courtland Sutton) to finish as the WR13 and the WR11 in fantasy? Doesn’t make much sense to me.
I get that Sutton will still have a notable role in this offense, but it’s not like Denver passcatchers have any shortage of targets to go around based on what we saw last year. Despite the gamescript rarely favouring a pass-heavy attack (because Denver’s defense is so good), the Broncos still ranked 4th in total pass attempts (613) while Bo Nix led the NFL in dropbacks (679). There’s no conservative playcalling when it comes to a Sean Payton led offense, and things aren’t going to change much this year with Payton handing off the playcalling duties to the newly promoted OC Davis Webb.
Webb was the QB coach and passing game coordinator for the Broncos last year. He was starting to get interviews for OC jobs (and even HC jobs) despite the fact that he’s never been a primary offensive playcaller at any point in his NFL coaching career. That’s because teams could see what the Broncos had in Webb – an up-and-coming elite coach with immense knowledge about the game, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Payton got so scared Webb was going to leave that he cut bait with his OC from last year (Joe Lombardi) and immediately handed off the playcalling duties, something Payton hasn’t done in his career as a head coach. Payton’s made it clear that this is still practically the same offense, but just look at the way he talks about Webb and tell me that doesn’t get you excited for a more efficient passing attack (per NFL.com):
So, the offense should still be humming with a heavy emphasis on the pass game. Then, we look at Waddle’s role within this offense. Recent reports from Payton suggest that Waddle will be lining up a lot more in the slot and as the Z receiver (the Z receiver is referred to as the “move” receiver because they line up off the line of scrimmage to go in motion before the snap). This lines up with the role that elite WRs like Puka Nacua and Ja’Marr Chase play, where they line up all over the formation and can beat you from anywhere. This is a notable shift from what his usage had been in Miami, where over the last four years, he was lined up on the outside around 80% of the time and was on-ball (as opposed to in motion) at around the same rate.
Further, we’ve seen how higher slot usage for the #1 option has worked before in a Sean Payton offense. WR Michael Thomas (New Orleans) lined up in the slot over 30% of the time in 2018 and 2019 (where his previous career high was 22.8% of snaps in the slot). That resulted in Thomas finishing as the WR6 and WR1 in fantasy over those two seasons. Now, Waddle’s jumping into an offense in the same role as Thomas had in New Orleans, with a system/playcaller that passes the ball a ton, and he’s getting the ball from a healthy Bo Nix (all reports from camp are glowing after he had offseason surgery on his ankle). That’s a bump up in role, opportunity, and supporting cast (say what you want about Nix, he will unquestionably get his WRs more production than Tua did last year). And his ADP is at the same spot as his fantasy finish last year. Yeah, I’m buying Waddle ahead of cost with confidence.
- Christian Watson: My Ranking: WR20; Sleeper ADP: WR30
Watson is my second biggest ADP outlier, as I’m comfortable taking him a little more than a full round ahead of his current ADP. WR20 might seem like a pretty crazy take given the fact that Watson has never played more than 15 games in a season and he’s never finished higher than WR34 (which was in his rookie year in 2022). But there’s a few reasons why this ranking is justified even when considering the injury risk baked in.
I mean, you don’t have to look much further than Watson’s performance in 10 healthy games last year to see what his upside could be. Out of WRs who played a minimum of half the season (8 games), Watson finished as the WR15 in FPPG (11.5). From Weeks 8 to 17 (Week 8 was when he got healthy after recovering from a torn ACL the previous year), he ranked as the WR9 in fantasy, which included four games where he put up 18.6+ fantasy points and three weekly Top 5 finishes at the position. The difference between last year and his prior years (which included high variance, inconsistent performances) comes down to how he was used in 2025. Previously, Green Bay profiled Watson as the X receiver, where his only goal was to stretch the field and keep defenses honest. Last year, he was used more like a Z receiver, where he was getting more looks in the shorter areas of the field to build up consistent statlines. And guess what – Watson is set to be the Z receiver again this year with Matthew Golden moving to the X spot.
That’s good news for the guy who was playing out of his mind during the back half of the season, clearly functioning as the #1 target in Green Bay after Tucker Kraft went down in Week 9. And I get it, Tucker Kraft is back. But WRs Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs are gone, and the 131 combined targets they accounted for are vacated. Sophomore WR Matthew Golden should have a bigger role in the offense, as will slot WR Jayden Reed. But I’m guessing that Watson will be the biggest beneficiary of those two guys leaving, and if you combine an increase in projected targets with how he already performed last year, there’s a case to be made that Watson can finish as a WR1.
That’s why I’m saying that Watson’s injury risk is still baked into my ranking of him as the WR20. If he didn’t have a spotty injury history, and he finished last year as a Top 10 WR in fantasy (which he was in the back half of the season), you can bet your ass that he’d be right next to guys like Nico Collins and Chris Olave in ADP. That’s especially the case when considering that targets have been consolidated in this offense.
It’s the exact same offensive system, with the exact same QB, but with more opportunity and a more clearly defined role. And to all those guys that think Watson is just a hamstring-injury waiting to happen, I’d direct you to the tweet below to show you why I have more optimism than most when it comes to him staying relatively healthy this year:
I may not agree that his soft-tissue issues are “completely behind him”, but the fact remains that he’s made notable improvements to his body which should give him the potential to end up on the field for 15+ games. Even if he does get banged up, what would you prefer: (i) a guy who plays 17 games and has consistent production, but only finishes as a weekly Top 12 WR once and finishes as the WR22 in FPPG (this is Tet), or (ii) a guy who might play 12-13 games in the season (Watson’s career average) but has consistent production, multiple Top 5 weekly finishes, and Top 10 upside when it comes to FPPG? I know who I’m taking, as even if I have to replace Watson with someone from my bench and/or waivers at some point due to injury, he’ll still have provided me with week-winning potential through whatever games he does play.
- Parker Washington: My Ranking: WR23; Sleeper ADP: WR36
Now, we get to my biggest ADP outlier in the rankings. If there was a Parker Washington fan club, I’d be fighting tooth & nail to become president, vice-president, and CEO of it. While there may be valid concerns over which Jacksonville WR commands the most volume in this ascending offense, there’s no doubt that there’s value to be had when it comes to Jaguars pass-catchers. My ranking of Washington as the WR23 still has that volume uncertainty baked in, as we saw last year that his ceiling is much higher than WR23 should he retain the role that he earned in the back-half of 2025.
And I get it – there’s context to Washington finishing as hot as he did from Week 9 to the end of the season. The 2nd overall pick in last year’s draft, WR/CB Travis Hunter, began to emerge in Week 7 where he had 14 targets, 8 receptions, 101 receiving yards, and 1 TD in a game against the Rams. He then suffered an LCL tear and went on to miss the rest of the season. Brian Thomas Jr., who had 1,282 receiving yards and 10 TDs as a rookie in 2024, had a myriad of injuries that he dealt with last year. He started off the season playing through a wrist injury, suffered a shoulder injury in Week 7 that resulted in limited participation in practice, and missed three games (Weeks 10-12) after picking up a high ankle sprain against the Raiders. While the Jags replenished some depth at WR by trading for Jakobi Meyers in Week 10, he was still new to this offense, and there was even less target competition coming from the TEs as Brenton Strange missed Weeks 6 to 11 with injury.
So, the question becomes this: was Washington’s performance as the WR15 in FPPG (Weeks 9 to 18) born out of necessity? Or was this a true indication of how good this overlooked WR is going to be in this offense? Well, my answer is a little more nuanced than just choosing one of those options, as I think both can be correct in this situation.
I think that when Washington began to see increased usage in Week 9, it really was just because he was the healthiest pass-catcher in the Jags WR room. HC Liam Coen gave him the opportunity to step up, as he had four straight games of a 76%+ snap share after only exceeding that snap share in two of his first seven games. But as things progressed, even though JAX got Brenton Strange back (Week 12) and acquired Jakobi Meyers (Week 10), Washington’s usage didn’t decrease. It actually increased (after P-Wash got through some injury issues from Week 13 to Week 15). The guy finished the season with four straight games of 9+ targets (including 12 targets for 7 receptions, 107 receiving yards and a TD in the Wild Card game, the Jags most important game of the season). If you watched the Jags’ games closely during this period, it seemed like the connection was continuing to grow between P-Wash and Trevor Lawrence, with the box score only serving as a reminder that Washington was becoming the #1 option.
One thing that was easy to notice during this period of this season was P-Wash being used more out of the slot. From Weeks 1-7, Washington was only lined up in the slot 37.1% of the time. From Week 9 to the end of the season. Washington lined up in the slot 58.3% of the time. That’s a pretty significant change in usage, but it’s also usage that corresponds with Liam Coen’s most productive pass-catchers during his previous stints as an offensive coordinator. While he wasn’t the Rams primary play-caller when he was their OC in 2022 (that would’ve been McVay), Coen got a first-hand view of how a WR could split work between the slot and the outside while achieving crazy production. That was the year Cooper Kupp (who lined up in the slot 55.6%) was averaging 9 receptions and 101.3 receiving yards per game. After a brief stint as the OC of Kentucky in 2023, Coen was hired as the OC of the Bucs in 2024 for his first chance at calling plays in the NFL. That season, he utilized Chris Godwin in the same way that the Rams utilized Cooper Kupp in 2022, where Godwin lined up in the slot 61.9% of the time (over the seven games he was healthy before dislocating his ankle). When Godwin was healthy, he was averaging 7.3 receptions and 82.3 receiving yards per game, ranking as the WR2 in FPPG. Godwin hadn’t had a more productive season on a per-game basis since 2019, so Coen was obviously getting more out of Godwin than was expected at that point of his career. And it’s not like Godwin was the only talented WR on the roster at that point in time, as Mike Evans was still doing his thing with 110 total targets over 14 games to go along with 71.7 receiving yards per game.
Is it so wild to think that Parker Washington & BTJ will be the Chris Godwin & Mike Evans in this system? The only concern I have with that take is when it comes to BTJ playing the Mike Evans role, as the most recent reports indicate that Travis Hunter will be a threat to the playing time of all WRs not named Parker Washington:
But a bet on Parker Washington goes deeper than just the situation and role he’ll play on this offense. It’s also a bet on the player and person Washington seems to be, something that can get overlooked when it comes to fantasy football. This is an undersized WR who was the 185th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, one who’s had to work his way from the bottom of the depth chart to get to where he is today. You don’t get to this point if you’re not an obsessive worker when it comes to preparation off the field, and many people have taken notice of how dedicated Washington is when it comes to perfecting his craft:
You’re telling me that there’s a 24 year old WR with that kind of work ethic, playing the slot/Z WR role in a Liam Coen offense, who just averaged 12.6 FPPG when being thrust into the starting role in 2025 – and he’s going as the WR36 in drafts? Miss me with that shit. While I’m sure that Washington’s ADP will jump up as we get closer to the regular season, it won’t jump up nearly high enough to prevent me from getting as many shares as I can of him. If you want to beat me to P-Wash, you’re going to have to grab him in the 5th round range, as I’m more than comfortable jumping on him then.
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