Previous Editions of Rankings & ADP Outliers for the Preseason:
Fantasy Football – Top 12 QB Rankings & ADP Outliers – Preseason Edition
Fantasy Football – Top 12 TE Rankings & ADP Outliers – Preseason Edition
Fantasy Football – Top 36 WR Rankings & ADP Outliers – Preseason Edition
You know we saved the best for last with this one. After covering my top 12 QBs and TEs, along with my top 36 WRs, we get to the most intriguing position in fantasy football this year: the RBs. After a few years where top-end RBs have outperformed top-end WRs, it’s become clear that fantasy success will stem from having your RB spots locked up with week-in, week-out performers. While there’s the possibility that this trend reverses and top-end WRs become more valuable (as they were in 2022 and 2023), I’m of the thought that this is a new age of fantasy where RBs maintain their stranglehold as top-end assets.
That’s especially the case for ½ PPR leagues, as we saw that RBs made up 4 of the top 5 fantasy performers last year, and 7 of the top 10. From a high-level perspective, there’s a few factors at play which might shed some light as to why this is the case. The obvious trends favouring RBs are higher pass-catching rates for the position and more two-high/three-high defensive looks that prevent QBs from producing explosive plays to their WRs. With more chances for easy manufactured touches, and less defenders in the box to play the run, it’s inevitable that RB scoring will bump up. The only way I see this trend reversing? Well, it’s if the top-end RBs suffer more injuries than the top-end WRs, something that hasn’t happened over the last two years.
The thing is – I see that as being less luck-dependent than many other fantasy analysts do. That’s because the “bellcow back” era has essentially come to an end, where even the top RBs like Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs still get rotational work in their respective offenses. The closest thing we have to true “workhorse backs” now play around 80% of their teams offensive snaps (Jonathan Taylor and CMC were the only two to breach this mark in 2025), and my hypothesis is that this has resulted in reduced injury rates for the top-end RBs. We’ll see if that trend continues this year, but regardless of that, the bottom line is this: you need to make sure you hit on your RBs, as they are much harder to replace (off the waiver wire or via trade) than any other position group in fantasy football.
With that in mind, we’re going to be looking at my top 24 RBs for the 2026 season. While the top two spots are carved in stone with the two true elites of the position (Bijan and Gibbs), there are plenty of ways you can go after that tier. I have some guys much higher than ADP, and some much lower. For my five most significant ADP outliers, I’ll have a section underneath the rankings to discuss why they fell/rose to that position, with detailed analysis as to how I think their seasons play out. So, without further ado, let’s get to the rankings.
*All RBs in italics are highlighted as being significantly higher/lower than their current Sleeper ADP, and will be covered in the analysis section underneath the rankings. Rankings/ADPs are based on ½ PPR fantasy scoring & 12 team leagues.
RB Rankings:
RB 1: Jahmyr Gibbs: Sleeper ADP around Pick 1.2 as RB2.
RB 2: Bijan Robinson: Sleeper ADP around Pick 1.1 as RB1.
RB 3: James Cook: Sleeper ADP around Pick 1.9 as RB5.
RB 4: Jonathan Taylor: Sleeper ADP around Pick 1.7 as RB4.
*RB 5: Chase Brown: Sleeper ADP around Pick 2.4 as RB10. Smash. See Analysis Below.
RB 6: Christian McCaffrey: Sleeper ADP around Pick 1.6 as RB3.
RB 7: Omarion Hampton: Sleeper ADP around Pick 2.3 as RB9.
RB 8: Ashton Jeanty: Sleeper ADP around Pick 1.12 as RB6.
RB 9: Saquon Barkley: Sleeper ADP around Pick 2.1 as RB7.
RB 10: Derrick Henry: Sleeper ADP around Pick 2.10 as RB12.
RB 11: Kenneth Walker: Sleeper ADP around Pick 2.9 as RB11.
*RB 12: De’Von Achane: Sleeper ADP around Pick 2.2 as RB8. Fade. See Analysis Below.
RB 13: Kyren Williams: Sleeper ADP around Pick 3.3 as RB15.
RB 14: Jeremiah Love: Sleeper ADP around Pick 2.11 as RB13.
*RB 15: Travis Etienne Jr.: Sleeper ADP around Pick 4.11 as RB21. Smash. See Analysis Below.
RB 16: Javonte Williams: Sleeper ADP around Pick 3.12 as RB17.
RB 17: Cameron Skattebo: Sleeper ADP around Pick 4.3 as RB18.
RB 18: Josh Jacobs: Sleeper ADP around Pick 3.1 as RB14.
*RB 19: D’Andre Swift: Sleeper ADP around Pick 5.11 as RB26. Smash. See Analysis Below.
*RB 20: Breece Hall: Sleeper ADP around Pick 3.9 as RB16. Fade. See Analysis Below.
RB 21: Bucky Irving: Sleeper ADP around Pick 4.5 as RB19.
RB 22: Bhayshul Tuten: Sleeper ADP around Pick 5.6 as RB24.
RB 23: David Montgomery: Sleeper ADP around Pick 5.5 as RB23.
RB 24: TreVeyon Henderson: Sleeper ADP around Pick 4.9 as RB20.
RB ADP Outliers:
- Chase Brown: My Ranking: RB5; Sleeper ADP: RB10
We start the outlier section with a value play, as I have the Bengals lead RB as the RB5 in fantasy this year with the general draft community seeing him more as a low-end RB1. Brown has been a favourite of mine ever since he burst onto the scene in Week 4 of 2024, a game where he had 92 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs while playing only 40% of the snaps. From that performance on, he’s taken the reins of the Cincinnati RB room and hasn’t looked back.
Well, I guess you could say he kind of took a look back during the first-half of last year. After finishing 2024 on a generational run (six straight top 10 weekly finishes at the position from Weeks 9 to 15), Brown stumbled out of the gates in 2025. It was Week 8 by the time he finally put up over 12.1 fantasy points in a game, a drastic disappointment considering where he was going in drafts (RB12 in 2025 Sleeper ADP). From Weeks 1 to 7, he was the RB31 in total fantasy points and the RB35 in fantasy points-per-game (FPPG). Fantasy managers were getting to the point where they were ready to cut bait with Brown, as there wasn’t much optimism for this offense without Joe Burrow in the fold (who went down with injury early in Week 2). But then something magical happened: Joe Flacco got acclimated to the offense after being traded to the Bengals in Week 6.
Once Flacco got comfortable and started operating this offense in a similar way to Burrow, Brown’s production profile completely shifted. As the Bengals offense began to get back to elite status, Brown had more TD opportunities available to him, going from scoring 1 TD over the first 7 games to scoring 10 TDs over his last 10 outings. His receiving work also took a notable jump, where he averaged 3.1 receptions with 13.4 receiving yards per game over his first 7 outings, and 4.7 receptions with 34.3 receiving yards per game in his last 10 appearances. He was even more efficient in the run game, as he was at 3.6 YPC from Weeks 1 to 7 compared to 4.8 YPC during the rest of the year. This all culminated in Brown being the RB3 in FPPG over the back-half of the season (18.9 FPPG).
So basically, if Joe Burrow or Joe Flacco are the QB for this offense, Brown has the upside to finish as the RB3. This year, we have (i) a healthy Joe Burrow, and (ii) Joe Flacco signed to be his backup. That’s total insulation from any of the garbage that so negatively impacted Brown’s outlook last year, and you even have recent reports that cite an increase in exotic looks for Brown this upcoming season:
Now, don’t hear what I’m not saying: I don’t think Brown is going to ever reach the snap shares/workloads of the elite RBs in fantasy. Brown only had three games last year where he exceeded 82% of the snaps, compared to McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor who had ten such games each. That being said, I’d say there’s room for a bump up in snap share given the fact that the 66% rate Brown had last year was below noted split backfields like DET (Gibbs had a higher snap rate even with Montgomery) and the LAR (Kyren had a higher snap rate even with Corum’s emergence). The bump won’t be too significant, but it could help Brown accumulate more touches after he only ranked 10th in RB touches last year. I’m not projecting him to join the RBs with elite workloads (as too notable a jump in Brown’s workload could increase injury risk and decrease efficiency), but he’s earned the opportunity to get the ball in his hands more, leading to the possibility of a safer floor and even more upside.
That’s not even taking into account the fact that this Bengals offensive line should be at least a little better in 2026 after ranking as the 7th worst run blocking OLine last year (per PFF). Optimism for improvement comes from the fact that we have some continuity with this unit, where all five projected starters played in at least 14 games last year. Third-year OT Amarius Mims is a behemoth of a human being, and he made notable improvements in run blocking last year after struggling as a rookie (bumped his PFF run blocking grade up from 52.6 to 64.8). I expect him to continue to make improvements as he’s now got ample experience to build off of. The same goes for sophomore OG Dylan Fairchild (3rd round pick in 2025 NFL Draft), who was one of the worst run blockers in the NFL last year (44th out of 57 qualifying guards in PFF run blocking grade). If we have even marginal improvements with a couple of these guys come 2026, it’s impossible to think Brown won’t be a beneficiary.
We all know the Bengals offense is going to run through Joe Burrow and his two stud receivers. But with Brown serving as the de facto #3 pass-catching option in a high volume pass attack, while receiving almost all of the rushing work against defenses with light boxes (due to their fear of the Bengals passing attack), how does he not exceed ADP this year? Injury is the only way I see it happening, and the risk of that happening is reduced due to the fact that he’s young (26) and he doesn’t exceed an 80% snap share. Sign me up for Brown ahead of cost.
- De’Von Achane: My Ranking: RB12; Sleeper ADP: RB8
I can feel the Achane Hive coming for my throat after bumping him down to a borderline RB2 this year, and I must admit, they have valid reasons to do so. This ridiculously talented RB has finished as the fantasy RB5 and RB6 over the past two seasons, with his worst finish being RB24 in 2023 (his rookie season). Thing is, Achane was actually the RB4 in FPPG that year, so you’re basically looking at a guy that’s (i) been a top 6 RB in fantasy for three straight years, (ii) still very young at 24 years of age, and (iii) remains the workhorse back in Miami’s RB rotation. And now, you’re getting him as the RB8, so it even appears as though you’re getting a discount.
But as we’ve pointed out through our rankings articles of different position groups, the situation can matter more than the talent if the situation’s bad enough. And I can’t stress how much of a downgrade Achane gets in this offense with the numerous changes that have taken place over the offseason.
And I get it: how can this Dolphins offense be any worse than they were last year? They were 25th in PPG (20.4), 25th in yards per game (300.7), and 31st in team plays per game (55.8). Those are the worst ranks a Mike McDaniels led offense has registered over his tenure as an offensive playcaller, but context definitely matters. The Dolphins had one of the worst collective offensive line performances last year with both their PFF run blocking grade and pass blocking grade being bottom 6 marks in the NFL. Tua Tagovailoa looked like complete dogshit when passing the ball 10+ air yards downfield, and the passing offense inevitably took a step back with Tyreek Hill going down in Week 4. So why did Achane continue to perform so well despite the obvious limitations in this offense?
The answer is this: the offense and personnel limitations led McDaniels to scheme the offense to Achane’s skillset in order to avoid being dead-fucking-last in the NFL. The offensive line can’t hold a block and Tua can’t scramble out of the pocket? Design more quick-hitting plays with Achane as the primary pass-catcher. Tua can’t get the ball downfield effectively? Emphasize passes to the short areas of the field where Achane is so effective. Defenses are keying in on Jaylen Waddle because there’s no other WR to worry about? Put Achane out wide/in the slot and let him line up as a de facto WR (Achane was lined up as a WR a ridiculous 148 times last year, 44 more times than third place CMC and just falling short of Bijan Robinson in first). The offensive line can’t run block at an average level? Import some of the best zone run concepts stemming from the Shanahan system to spread defenses and allow Achane to most effectively utilize his speed. It really is impressive how McDaniels adapted to get the most out of his best players despite what he was working with.
Now – at least a couple of factors come into play which may result in reduced efficiency/work for Achane. One is the change at QB, where the Dolphins swapped out Tua Tagovailoa for the unproven (yet promising) Malik Willis. While Tua couldn’t escape the pocket to scramble, Willis has shown the ability to do so to great effect. While projections may be difficult with Willis due to the small sample size we have of him as a starter (he only played 188 snaps with the Packers over the last two years), it’s telling that he ran the ball on 22.3% of his snaps. And it’s not like Willis was only utilized in wildcat packages or on designed runs, as around 60% of his rush attempts were on scrambles. It’s clear that Willis will rely more on his legs when the pressure inevitably comes through this improved (yet still below average) offensive line. As a result, there’s less need for checkdowns to Achane, something Tua was more reliant on due to his lack of mobility.
That projected reduction in easy targets for Achane connects with the Dolphins change at OC & playcaller, as we now have Bobby Slowik calling the offense. If you remember Slowik from his time as the Houston Texans OC in 2023 and 2024, you know that things can get a little stale due to his inability to be unpredictable when calling plays. You can check out the X thread below from fantasy analyst Ryan Heath if you want a full breakdown of how his lack of creativity led to an unsuccessful HOU offense, but the bottom line is this: he sticks to the run game on 1st and 2nd down at a very high rate (even though the best playcallers in the game like McVay and Coen show that passing the ball in unpredictable early-down situations results in more success). This leads to plenty of third-and-long situations that result in punts more often than not.
Now think about this Miami pass-catcher group outside of Achane. You got Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, and Tutu Atwell slotted in as the “veterans” at WR. Then, you have 3rd round rookie WRs Chris Bell (who still has a ways to go before getting on the field after tearing his ACL last year) and Caleb Douglas making up the depth of the position group. And to round things out at TE, it’s Greg Dulcich. You have to admit that this collection of players makes up one of the worst pass-catching units in the NFL, and defenses will surely be thinking the same thing when they stack the box at high rates. Now, couple that with the fact that Slowik refuses to go away from the run on early downs, and you’re almost guaranteed to see Achane being stuffed at the line on a regular occurrence while the Dolphins regularly encounter 3rd & 6, 3rd & 7, and 3rd & 8’s. Less first downs mean less offensive plays run, resulting in even fewer opportunities for Achane to get work. It also results in even fewer touchdowns for the offense, which is an area Achane will have to improve in if his efficiency goes down to even the slightest extent.
Now, I still have to be fair in this analysis by noting that the MIA offensive line should be somewhat better this year. While this could be a slight boost to Achane in the run game, we also have to consider that McDaniels is unquestionably better than Slowik in designing run plays due to his links with Shanahan. Plus, if the offensive line is better in pass blocking, and Achane isn’t being used as effectively as a WR (Slowik has proven to be quite bad at utilizing RBs as WRs), then how is Achane going to get even close to the receiving output he had last year?
All of that context brings me to this: Achane will still be solid this year, as he has a built-in high floor due to his immense ability and guaranteed workload. But with an offense that’ll likely be even worse than last year’s offense, and a subpar scheme with less creativity when using Achane, the upside is capped on him finishing as a top 8 RB. As such, I’m out on Achane at cost this year.
- Travis Etienne Jr.: My Ranking: RB15; Sleeper ADP: RB21
Alright friends, now that we’ve gotten the doom-and-gloom out of the way with my Achane projections, let’s focus on a guy I’m much higher than market on. That guy is Travis Etienne Jr., who coincidentally has let us know that we should be saying his last name the same way that we say Achane’s.
Most people had the same thought last year when considering Etienne in drafts: is this guy really going to be the 1A in the Jaguars backfield? This was reflected in his draft cost, as he was going off the board as the RB31 on Sleeper. Well, if you took the shot on him being that 1A, you likely made the fantasy playoffs, as you got the RB13 in FPPG and the RB10 in total fantasy points on the season. Etienne became an animal when unleashed in Liam Coen’s scheme, surpassing 1,350 scrimmage yards, averaging 4.72 yards per touch, and accounting for 13 total TDs. Things could’ve been even better if Tuten didn’t convert in the redzone at a high rate (he had 7 total TDs despite receiving 203 less touches than Etienne), but you were still very happy with what you got from this stud.
And now, one year after the 27 year old RB finished as a low-end RB1, he’s going as the RB21 off the board. How did that come to be? Well, the only notable change with Etienne is his departure from Liam Coen & Jacksonville, as he joined Kellen Moore & the Saints as a free agent this offseason. So there must be glaring factors with the New Orleans offense that would lead one to believe that Etienne will be worse off, right?
I have to be fair in my case for Etienne ahead of cost – there is one significant factor at play which may result in a decrease to his fantasy production. That comes in the form of reduced pass-catching opportunities in the Kellen Moore system. Etienne’s playcaller from 2025, Liam Coen, has always been extremely effective in utilizing his RBs/WRs through the air with designed targets:
That paid off for Etienne in 2025, especially in the redzone where he had 6 receiving TDs (2nd in the NFL) when his previous career high in a season was 1 receiving TD. Compare that to Kellen Moore and how much he utilizes designed targets to specific skill players, and you can start to see why his receiving totals could come down a touch:
Now, there is one thing to consider. Yes, in Kellen Moore’s time as OC of the Eagles (2024), he did limit Saquon’s receiving production to a large extent (Saquon only had 33 receptions that year, his lowest total in his career when playing 13+ games in a season). But when Moore was the Chargers OC in 2023, Austin Ekeler ended up with 51 receptions in 14 games. As the Cowboys OC in 2022, Tony Pollard (who played less snaps than Zeke that year) ended up with 39 receptions, good for 17th among RBs that season. So was Kellen Moore’s system the one holding Saquon back from receiving work? Or does Kellen Moore adapt his system to the QBs, where he saw limitations in Hurts’ game when passing to RBs? I lean towards the latter, so those stats on Moore’s system aren’t necessarily instructive in forecasting Etienne’s pass-game usage within this offense. Obviously the team has said that Alvin Kamara will get some pass-catching work, but does that mean that Etienne can’t put up similar pass-catching stats to last year (36 receptions for 292 receiving yards) when he’s never had less than 35 receptions and 254 receiving yards in his four NFL seasons? I honestly don’t think it’ll be too far off.
But then the next hurdle comes up for Etienne: can the New Orleans offense provide him as many scoring opportunities as the Jaguars offense did? My answer would be yes, but we have to do some projecting here. This year, Warren Sharp has the Saints with the 3rd easiest strength-of-schedule in the NFL. We like to see that, but can the Saints reach new heights on offense after finishing 28th in PPG last year (18.0)? Well, they have Tyler Shough set-in-stone as the starter now, and in his starts last year (Weeks 9 to 18), the Saints actually had 19.8 PPG. If we take only the last six games, when Shough actually got comfortable in the offense, that jumps to 23.5 PPG. The Jags had 27.7 PPG, but New Orleans should be even better on offense this year because (i) they actually have a competent RB in place after their leading rusher last year was Kamara with 471 yards, and (ii) they just invested top 10 draft capital in stud rookie WR Jordyn Tyson. Pair that with Shough getting even more comfortable in the scheme & an easy schedule, and it’s easy to see a world where the Saints are averaging around 25 PPG on the year.
So if Etienne retains a similar receiving output, keeps his TD numbers close to last year, and has a similar split in touches with Kamara as he had in 2025 (he had 57.5% of JAX RB touches last year), how does he not pay off at ADP? I get that it takes projecting workload/offensive success to get there, but I’d say Etienne gets an even higher % of touches this year (probably around 65%), and he’s playing in an offense that had the 10th most offensive plays per game last year (Moore loves to push the pace). To cap it all off, multiple outlets have the Saints young offensive line projected as an average to above-average unit in 2026 (after being projected as below average in 2025), where FTN has them at 11th in the OLine ranks and PFF has them at 16th. The Jags return basically the same offensive line, and they rank 29th and 30th in those respective rankings.
I’m buying up stock in Etienne, especially in ½ PPR as I could see him posting a career-high in rushing yards with a clear path to borderline RB1 production.
- D’Andre Swift: My Ranking: RB19; Sleeper ADP: RB26
My last bull case in the rankings comes in the form of the most reliable fantasy asset in drafts over the past decade, as Swift has never finished lower than RB23 in a season over his six-year career. And it’s not like those results are inflated due to him staying healthy every season (though he has played 16+ games over each of his last three seasons, which is great to see). Here’s his finishes when it comes to FPPG over that span: 2020: RB18, 2021: RB12, 2022: RB18, 2023: RB24, 2024: RB21, and 2025: RB16. The guy’s still relatively young at 27 years old, in arguably one of the best offenses in the NFL, and has consistent performances resulting in one of the most dependable fantasy RB2’s we’ve ever seen. And now, the general draft community is taking him as the RB26. What the hell are we doing here?
I get that his upside is limited. This isn’t a guy who’s going to shoot up the ranks and become a top 5 fantasy RB on the season. But when guys like David Montgomery and Quinshon Judkins are going ahead of him in ADP, who lack the similar upside for a top 5 finish, I start to question how much we’re undervaluing the steady D’Andre Swift.
I also get that people may be worried about the workload split changing between Swift and sophomore RB Kyle Monangai, as we saw a slight shift in production as the Bears season progressed last year. From Weeks 1 to 8 last year, Swift was averaging 14.7 FPPG and Monangai was averaging 4.8 FPPG. From Weeks 10-17 (Swift missed Week 9 with injury), Swift was averaging 13 FPPG and Monangai was averaging 9.7 FPPG. Some people are projecting Monangai to get an even bigger role due to his jump in performance to end 2025. But let’s consider this:
- While dropping 1.7 FPPG may seem to be detrimental, it didn’t change Swift’s fantasy ranking very much, as he was the RB10 in FPPG over the first eight weeks and the RB14 in FPPG over the last eight weeks. Even if Swift starts to fall into that 12 FPPG range, that would still have him around RB17-RB20 in FPPG (ahead of his ADP).
- Swift missed Week 9 due to a chronic groin injury that plagued him throughout the year (as HC Ben Johnson noted). He was a mainstay on the practice injury report as the season progressed, but gutted it out and still ended with a career high in rushing yards (1,087). Per Sports Injury Central, Swift is at full health going into 2026 with no concerns over his groin, so increased efficiency is on the table even if his overall number of touches goes down.
- Swift’s workload never really changed following Week 1 of the season. From Weeks 2 to 17, Swift never had a snap share above 66% or below 45%, and his average touches over the first eight weeks was 16.9 compared to 16.0 over the last eight weeks. Even with Monangai performing well and Swift clearly banged up, Ben Johnson had trust in his guy (Johnson was the OC for the Lions in 2022 when Swift was one of his primary backs). With Swift healthy entering 2026, and Monangai yet to return to full practice through training camp thus far (soft tissue injury), how does this really change?
The only notable difference you can see between Swift & Monangai when comparing the first eight weeks with the last eight weeks is redzone usage. Swift had 14 more redzone touches than Monangai from Weeks 1 to 8, whereas Monangai had 2 more redzone touches than Swift from Weeks 10-17. But here’s the thing: Swift only had 4 less redzone touches in Weeks 10-17 (18) compared to Weeks 1-8 (22), and he scored the same amount of redzone touchdowns during each span (4). It may be a split between the two RBs when it comes to redzone work this year (as we saw through the back half of last season). But the offense got to a point where they were utilizing these backs so much in the redzone, in such an efficient manner, that I expect 8+ redzone TDs for each guy. If that’s the case, and Swift can convert more runs from outside the 20 yard line into TDs (something he said he had trouble with last year due to the groin injury), then we’re not expecting any TD regression from this stud. Let’s not forget: Ben Johnson had two RBs finish with 8+ TDs in every year he’s been an offensive playcaller: 2022 (Jamaal Williams & Swift), 2023 (Gibbs & Montgomery), and 2024 (Gibbs & Montgomery). The only year he’s failed to do this as a playcaller was in 2025, but if you project Weeks 10-17 output into a full season, Monangai would have 8 TDs and Swift would have 10 TDs.
Bottom line is: I like both RBs at cost, but Swift is still projected to (i) have more touches on the season, (ii) take up the more valuable work in the receiving game, and (iii) be part of an offense that can get him 8-10 TDs with the upside to hit 12+ TDs. Further, while the Bears lost some talent on the OLine (LT Ozzy Trapillo out for at least most of the season with injury, C Drew Dalman retiring), analysts are still expecting this unit to be pretty solid due to the replacements they’ve brought in (PFF has them 5th among OLines, FTN has them 6th). I can give you concerns with a lot of the RBs that are going ahead of Swift right now:
- Is Jadarian Price actually going to get high-value work with Charbs coming back earlier than expected in an offense that just changed playcallers?
- Is Tuten really going to become the Etienne of the Jaguars backfield this year, or is he splitting work?
- Is David Montgomery going to hold up as the bellcow at 29 years old with 1,700+ career touches and an OLine that’s regarded as a bottom 10 unit in the NFL?
- Can Quinshon Judkins battle against negative gamescripts without a clear pass-catching role behind an OLine that’s regarded as one of the worst in the NFL?
- Can TreVeyon Henderson actually become reliable enough to supplant Rhamondre Stevenson in the depth chart?
There are none of those concerns with Swift. If anything, there’s increased upside with how much work Bears RBs got in the redzone over the back-half, coupled with a clean bill of health for Swift after he suffered through 2025 with injury. Don’t mistake a safe situation for a boring one, as I can see a world where Swift gets into the RB12 to RB16 range and absolutely exceed his cost.
- Breece Hall: My Ranking: RB20; Sleeper ADP: RB16
Poor Breece Hall man. If he’d been traded to the Chiefs last year (many reports said a deal was close to happening), I’d bet that he’s going even higher than Kenneth Walker is in drafts this year. The guy is an absolute talent, which was obvious to anyone with eyes in his rookie season (2022) where he was the RB7 in FPPG. Hall really broke out in 2023, where he finished as the fantasy RB4 with a statline of 299 touches, 1585 scrimmage yards, and 9 total TDs. Receiving work played a big part in that fantasy finish, as he had an absurd 76 receptions for close to 600 receiving yards.
But then we get to the last two seasons, and things have really taken a downturn compared to our expectations. It may look like I’m disrespecting Breece Hall on the surface of this ranking, as he still finished as the RB17 and RB18 in 2024 & 2025 despite the Jets offense being hot garbage. But some of that comes down to Hall being healthier than other backs, specifically when it comes to 2025. If you look at his finish when it comes to FPPG last year (among players who played at least 5 games), Hall ends up as the RB21. It’s not a terrible finish by any stretch of the imagination, but just look at the five guys I have ranked ahead of Hall when it comes to FPPG last year: Swift was RB14, Jacobs was RB9, Skattebo was RB10, Javonte was RB13, and Etienne was RB11. So if you really think about it, having Hall right behind them is actually projecting an increase in performance this year, not a decrease.
And things should at least be a little better in New York with the offseason work they did when it comes to this offense. They took two pass-catchers in the 1st Round of the NFL Draft (Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper), they added starting Guard Dylan Parham in Free Agency, and they replaced QB Justin Field with QB Geno Smith. While Geno was straight ass with the Raiders last year, there’s a 99% chance that he’s going to provide more passing yards in the offense than Fields did, some of which will inevitably go to Hall.
That all being noted, I don’t expect this offense to be a lot better than last year for a few reasons. The most significant reason is probably their offseason hire of new OC Frank Reich. It’s unbeknownst to me why the NFL continues to recycle playcallers who’ve failed to adapt to the modern game, but the Jets are going to Jet, so I’m not exactly surprised.
Say what you want about the Jets offense last year, but at least ex-OC Tanner Engstrand was utilizing motion to a high degree (something we love for offensive production as a whole). Over Reich’s last three years of calling plays in the NFL (2021 to 2023), he used motion (during pass plays) at a rate that was just below 30%. The next closest coach that’s calling offensive plays this year was just above 40% (well, except for Matt Nagy who was also around 30%). Reich starts his players in a static position without much creativity when it comes to where they’re lining up. It’s why I’m lower on Garrett Wilson this year than his ADP, despite the fact that he should have more production with Geno Smith. So overall, I think this offense is going to be about the same when it comes to success in moving down the field and scoring TDs.
But things get even worse when you look into how Reich’s RBs have produced in the past. I’ve seen people on X saying “well, he was with Jonathan Taylor in 2021 when Taylor finished as the RB1 in fantasy, so he must know how to get production out of his RBs”. The thing is, the Colts had a winning record that year (9-8) allowing for more positive run-game gamescripts, and the OLine was pretty damn good at that point in time (not to mention that Taylor is a Top 5 RB in the NFL talent-wise). Things are much different this year with: (i) the Jets betting line at 5.5 wins, (ii) a OLine that is getting better, but still ranks as 17th to 21st across multiple outlets, and (iii) an RB in Hall that can be considered in the upper tier of talented RBs, but not as talented as Taylor. In 2022 and 2023, when Reich called plays for the Colts and Panthers, here’s how his RBs produced:
- 2022: Colts finished 4-12-1, so more negative gamescripts. Jonathan Taylor was the RB20 in FPPG.
- 2023: Panthers finished 2-15, so more negative gamescripts. Chuba Hubbard was the RB32 in FPPG.
I consider Hall as better than Hubbard but slightly worse than JT. And I expect the Jets to finish at around 4-6 wins (as do the oddsmakers). As such, I expect him to be closer to the Taylor finish than the Hubbard finish noted above. But the fact remains: his upside is severely capped with the situation he is currently in.
Lastly, while news has recently come out from beat reporters that Hall is going to be featured more heavily after splitting work last year in this backfield, what is that really going to look like? Hall still played more total snaps last year than guys like James Cook and D’Andre Swift, and he was 13th in RB touches come the end of the year. Out of the 12 RBs ahead of him in touches, only two played on a team with less total offensive plays (Achane and Jeanty). So if you think about it from a touch-per-play basis, he was already pretty damn close to that upper-echelon workload that bellcow RBs get. I can’t see him getting much more work if he’s going to stay healthy, so I can’t buy into this “coach-speak” resulting in a big jump. Plus, if you’ve been around the NFL long enough, you know that coaches lying through their teeth is a regular occurrence.
Any NFL team would be extremely lucky to have Hall as their starting RB. I can count at least 18 teams around the NFL (if not more) who would be upgrading at RB if they were to trade for this talented individual. I just can’t get there with him as the RB16, so he’ll be off my board come draft day.
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