Let’s go people – the NFL is almost back! We’re on to another article setting out some of my favorite picks in fantasy drafts this season, as draft dates are quickly approaching while we get closer to Week 1. In the last article, we set out my top three picks from each of the first three rounds (linked below), where I highlighted guys like James Cook in Round 1, AJ Brown in Round 2, and Devonta Smith in Round 3 as clear values. Now, we get on to my favorite picks from Round 4 to 6, where I see more than a few high upside guys going later than I’d expect.
As a reminder, this piece isn’t about firing off takes that go against the grain. The players listed here are the first two picks I’d take in each round if my draft was happening today. There’s even a few guys included here which I’d be fine taking a full round ahead of ADP, so there’s value to be had if they end up falling to you in whichever slot you end up drafting from.
But before getting into things, just a few ground rules for this exercise:
- The values of all players will be based on their current Sleeper ADPs. For example, Emeka Egbuka is currently going at a Sleeper ADP of 40. This would make him the 4th pick of the 4th round (4.04), so he would be considered one of my favourite 4th round picks if I were to choose him; and
- This is all based on ½ PPR scoring in 12 team leagues with a standard setup (1 QB/2 RB/2 WR/1 TE/1 FLEX).
Okay, on to the fun stuff.
Previous Article on My Favorite Picks
My Three Favorite Picks from each of the First Three Rounds
Favorite Picks from Round Four
- Tee Higgins: Cincinnati Bengals (WR): Sleeper ADP: Pick 4.02
Here we go with my absolute favourite guy if I’m drafting early in the 4th round – Mr. Tee Higgins. He’s actually a borderline Top 24 guy in my WR/RB combined rankings, so it’s clear that I’m comfortable reaching ahead of ADP to get him. I’d put him right behind guys like Chris Olave (RB/WR 23 in my rankings), Devonta Smith (RB/WR 24 in my rankings), and Javonte Williams (RB/WR 25 in my rankings), so don’t be afraid to reach a little if you’re picking near the end of the 3rd round and those guys are gone.
The thing with Tee is – when he’s on the field, he’s a WR1 in fantasy. But the “on the field” part of that equation has always been an issue. Over the last three seasons, Higgins’ has played 12, 12, and 15 games (that 15 game season happened last year). It was a fractured rib/hamstring strain in 2023, a hamstring strain/quad strain in 2024, and multiple concussions in 2025. All that soft tissue damage is concerning, and we now have Olave-esque fears with those concussions popping up last year. That being said, it’s important to note those are the first concussions Tee’s dealt with since 2022, and he only ended up with multiple concussions because he came back too early after his first brain-rattle. Fact remains: you’re gonna be clenching your buttcheeks whenever Higgins takes the field.
But when he’s out there on the field, I guarantee you’ll be happy with the results. That’s especially the case this year, as you have total insulation at the QB position with Joe Flacco signed to be the backup to Burrow. In 2025, you had QB Jake Browning as the starter from Week 2 to Week 5 (Burrow went down halfway through that Week 2 game with injury). In that stretch, Tee was the WR56 in fantasy points-per-game (FPPG) with less than 5 fantasy points in 2/4 matchups. That’s no bueno. So how did Higgins save his season and finish as the WR11 in FPPG and the WR12 in total fantasy points? You know the answer baby.
From Week 6 to Week 12 (when Flacco was the starter for the Bengals), Higgins was the WR7 in FPPG with 14.5. He didn’t have one game under 77% of snaps played, and he had three out of six games where he ranked as a Top 15 WR on the week (WR12 in Week 7, WR2 in Week 9, and WR15 in Week 11). Higgins actually suffered his first concussion in Flacco’s last start, where he then had to miss Burrow’s first game back in Week 13. When Higgins returned to the lineup in Week 14, he put up an insane 24.2 fantasy point game before going back into concussion protocol and missing Week 15. From Weeks 16 to 18, Higgins played on a pretty minimal snap share (sub 65% in each game) and he still averaged 12.1 FPPG. That would’ve still had him in the Top 12 WR’s last year (in FPPG).
What you always have to weigh in these circumstances is what becomes more valuable to your team: An injury-prone guy that has Top 10 weekly upside in an explosive offense with a guaranteed role (especially when it comes to the redzone, where Higgins has been in the Top 5 in WR TDs over each of the past two seasons)? Or a guy who has less injury concern but doesn’t come near Higgins when it comes to week-winning upside (someone like Tetairoa McMillan, who’s going two spots in front of Higgins in ADP)? I’m always on the side of taking the guy who has a higher ceiling, as I’m confident enough in my ability to draft/pick up depth at the WR position if that need arises. Think about it like this: you got a guy like Stefon Diggs going in the 9th/10th round of drafts this year who was only five spots behind T-Mac in FPPG last year (29th vs 25th). There’s obviously some nuance to that statement (T-Mac should be slightly improved this year and Diggs is now the secondary WR for his team). But there are guys like Alec Pierce, Parker Washington, and Christian Watson (popular waiver pickups last year) that you can find on waivers every year, so why not take the chance on upside when you can find replacement level production at a pretty high rate.
I haven’t heard any injury news on Higgins thus far, and he’s still in the exact same role with the exact same playcaller. While the defense of Cincinnati has obviously improved with the moves they made in the offseason, I can’t see the Bengals passing volume falling too much with what we’ve seen in past years when the defense has been above average (they were still 13th in pass rate in 2021 when they had a good enough defense to make the Super Bowl). Tee’s a scary pick to some, but I’d be very happy with him at the 4.01 come draft day.
- Zay Flowers: Baltimore Ravens (WR): Sleeper ADP: Pick 4.06
Depending on your team construction, I’m quite alright with snapping up Travis Etienne Jr. (New Orleans RB, ADP Pick 4.05) instead of Flowers here. But I have Flowers slightly ahead of Etienne in my overall rankings, so he gets the nod in this exercise (plus, I’ve already droned on about why I think Etienne is such a good pick here).
It’s funny, because you look at Flowers’ finish last year as the WR7 in total fantasy points and the WR14 in FPPG and you think “huh, really?”. It wasn’t the most explosive of seasons from Flowers, as he had seven out of seventeen games where he failed to breach double digit fantasy points while only finishing as a Top 12 weekly WR option three times. But he also only had three games where he was under 8.9 fantasy points, so the consistency was top-notch. The question you might be asking yourself right now: “why is this dummy recommending a high floor option when he just talked me out of that in the Tee Higgins analysis?” Well, it’s because I think Zay has the potential to provide more explosive performances this year, as a variety of factors held him back in 2025.
The most obvious factor was Lamar Jackson and his availability through 2025 (or lack thereof). When Jackson was in the lineup and healthy through the first four weeks, Flowers had 12.3 FPPG (which would’ve been a Top 12 season-long mark among WRs). Then, Jackson misses Weeks 5 through 8 with a hamstring injury. Even when Jackson came back in Week 9, it was week after week of seeing him on the injury report with multiple ailments (including a toe issue, a knee issue, an ankle issue, and even an illness at one point). Then, Jackson suffers a tailbone injury halfway through Week 16 and misses Week 17. If you watched the Ravens, it was clear that even when Lamar was out there, he was playing at less than 80% of his usual self (let alone 100%). I know Jackson is always at an elevated risk to get injured due to his rushing tendencies, but last year took it to a whole new level with career-lows in pass attempts and pass completions (the only time he had fewer pass attempts/completions was in his rookie year where he only started 7 games). You can make your bets on Lamar being past-his-prime at 29 years of age, but I just can’t see it when he was the MVP front-runner in 2024. I’d expect him to increase his 2025 production by about 1,000 to 1,500 passing yards, as that aligns with his production in both 2024 & 2023.
So, a somewhat healthy Jackson should give Zay more opportunities to fill the box score. Then, we look at another factor that’s set to change this year: the playcalling. I’m not here to shit on Baltimore’s ex-OC Todd Monken (now Head Coach of the Browns), as I do think he played into the strengths of the Ravens with his playcalling over the past several years. It was a really efficient offense in both the run game and the pass game (specifically when it came to the TEs), but Monken didn’t utilize high-end motion rates or play-action usage over the past three seasons. Now, we have the first disciple of Ben Johnson coming in to run this offense as the OC: Declan Doyle.
Doyle made his bones coaching under Sean Payton (with the Broncos in 2024) and the aforementioned Ben Johnson before getting his first crack at calling plays in Baltimore this year. Those are two of the greatest offensive minds in football, and Doyle was able to soak up as much as possible in implementing this new-look Ravens offense. The three key changes are: (i) increased play-action usage to create more explosive plays, (ii) more shifts/motions to get WRs schemed up in space, and (iii) more under-center looks to create unpredictability. We know these are hallmarks of what Ben Johnson ran in Chicago last year, and we’re already seeing articles pop up like this one and this one to confirm that this will be the case for Doyle and the Ravens this year.
So, how does this help Zay specifically? Two points on that: (i) Zay has a higher yards per route run mark than Puka Nacua on play action concepts over the past two seasons (you know, the same Puka that absolutely eats on play action looks in the Rams offense), and (ii) Lamar has shown to be very productive when the offense ranks above league-average in play action rate:
More under-center work means more effective play-action. In addition to that, more motion for a speedster like Zay can only help with winding him up to find space in the defense. And there’s complete versatility with Flowers when it comes to alignment, as he’s shown he can line up in the slot (over 30% slot rate in each of his past three seasons) as well as on the outside (over 60% outside rate in each of his past three seasons). That all makes for a very effective role within what should be a high scoring offense.
This guy is always going to have one of the highest target shares of any WR in the NFL. He has (i) the ability to break off big plays, (ii) one of the best QBs in the league, (iii) a playcaller with ties to some of the best offensive minds of all time, and (iv) the possibility to get even more TD production despite being smaller in stature (there’s really no way he could have less TD production, as he only has 14 total TDs over 60 career games played). Expect him to exceed the WR19 position he’s currently going at, as I see him more as a high-end WR2.
Honorable Mentions: Travis Etienne Jr (NO RB, ADP Pick 4.05), Jaylen Waddle (DEN WR, ADP Pick 4.11), Ladd McConkey (LAC WR, ADP Pick 4.03)
Favorite Picks from Round Five
- Tyler Warren: Indianapolis Colts (TE): Sleeper ADP: Pick 5.02
The first TE making his way onto my favorite picks list is none other than Tyler Warren, the do-it-all big man who’s coming off one of the better rookie TE seasons of all-time. After being selected by the Colts with the 14th pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, it was clear that Warren was a highly coveted player who would be thrown into the fire sooner rather than later. But I think most people underestimated just how productive he could be in his first season, considering that he was only drafted as the TE9 in fantasy last year (behind Evan Engram on the Broncos, lol).
Instead of having growing pains as most rookie TEs do, Warren started his first ten games averaging 6.7 targets per game, 5.0 receptions per game, and a stellar 61.7 receiving yards per game. He also came away with 4 total touchdowns over that period, with one TD resulting from a tushpush where Warren lined up at QB (something he did regularly in college). If you just extrapolate those averages over a full 17 game season, Warren would have ended with a statline of 114 targets, 85 receptions, 1,049 receiving yards, and around 7 total TDs. In ½ PPR scoring, that’s 189.4 total fantasy points, which would’ve easily bumped him up to TE2 last year. In fact, it was very comparable to Trey McBride’s 2024 season (194.3 fantasy points). If things had just stayed the same as they were during the first ten games, it’s likely that Warren has an ADP right after McBride coming into 2026 (McBride’s currently going around Pick 2.12).
Instead, Warren is going at the beginning of the 5th round. And the reason is clear as to why: he faded badly in the back-half of last season, as he was the TE26 in FPPG (5.6) from Weeks 11 to 18. But if you watched the Colts, you know why that was the case: Daniel Jones’ injury turned the offense into hot garbage.
The Colts had a bye in Week 11, and during prep for the next week, Jones was diagnosed with a hairline fracture in his leg. Jones tried to play through the fracture in Weeks 12 and 13, but he didn’t look nearly as effective. Then, Jones tore his achilles in Week 14, and we saw Grandpa Phillip Rivers take the reins of this offense with the lowest average-depth-of-target these eyes have ever seen. Things were BADDDD for this passing game after that point, where the only bright spot appeared to be in Week 18 where rookie QB Riley Leonard took over the starting job and had some pretty good production (270 passing yards and 2 TDs).
Now listen – I get that Jones has an increased injury risk going into this season. That was a fast recovery from an achilles tear, and even though camp reports have been glowing for Jones, he’s not the most available guy to begin with (torn ACL in 2023, neck injury in 2021). But where I think things are different than last year is if Jones does suffer an injury, the backups appear competent enough to fill in for his vacated production. I’m not saying Anthony Richardson and Riley Leonard are good backups, but you can bet your ass that with yet another year of development in this system, they’ll be more productive than Phillip Rivers was last year.
On top of that, I’d expect to see an even greater number of targets coming Warren’s way in 2026. I know the Colts just signed Keenan Allen, but I can’t imagine that he soaks up all 110 targets that were vacated with the departure of Michael Pittman. Alec Pierce also looks like he’s going to have a slow start to the year, as he just finally started practicing with the team after offseason ankle surgery. Better insulation at the QB position and less competition for targets – it’s all starting to look good for Warren.
And then the last part of Warren’s upside case – the schedule this year. Through the first ten games last year, the Colts faced 6 out of 10 teams who were in the bottom half of the NFL in preventing opposing RB production. Gamescripts also favoured a run heavy approach, as their matchups were MIA, DEN, TEN (twice), LAR, LV, ARI, LAC, PIT, and ATL. Only one of those teams were a Top 10 scoring offense last year (LAR), with the next highest being Denver at 15th in PPG. This year, the Colts have 6 out of their first 8 matchups against defenses that were in the top half of the NFL at limiting opposing RB production, and they face teams that are projected to be average to above-average scoring offenses like Baltimore, Kansas City, Washington, Minnesota, and Jacksonville during that stretch. At least initially, we’ll see the Colts struggle to run the ball as effectively, with gamescripts that likely favour a more pass-heavy approach. That’s what I want to see for Warren.
You’re going to get an ADP discount due to (i) injury (Warren’s set to miss a chunk of camp with a groin injury, which I see as the Colts just being careful so he’s back to 100% for the season), (ii) perceived increase in target competition (with the signing of Keenan Allen), and (iii) the sour taste he left in everyone’s mouth to end last season. I could see Warren falling back to a mid 5th round pick over the next little while, so take advantage if you can and lock this guy up to be your set-and-forget TE on the season.
- D’Andre Swift: Chicago Bears (RB): Sleeper ADP: Pick 5.04
I just can’t quit Swift guys. He’s been my biggest riser over the last few weeks, where I talked extensively about his profile here. The TLDR of that analysis:
- Swift has never finished lower than RB23 in a season over his six-year career. His finishes when it comes to FPPG over that span: 2020: RB18, 2021: RB12, 2022: RB18, 2023: RB24, 2024: RB21, and 2025: RB16. Swift’s still relatively young at 27 years old, and he’s a key part of arguably one of the best offenses in the NFL.
- People are worried about Monangai stealing more of Swift’s work this year. It’s true that from Weeks 1 to 8 last year, Swift was averaging 9.9 more FPPG than Monangai while from Weeks 10-17 he was only averaging 3.3 FPPG more. But Swift’s production didn’t really change, as he was only at 1.7 less FPPG over the back-half of the season (he was the RB10 in FPPG over the first eight weeks and the RB14 in FPPG over the last eight weeks).
- Swift had a chronic groin injury that plagued him throughout most of 2025 (as HC Ben Johnson noted). He was a mainstay on the practice injury report as the season progressed, but gutted it out and still ended with a career high in rushing yards (1,087). Swift is at full health going into 2026 with no concerns over his groin per camp reports.
- The only notable difference you can see between Swift & Monangai when comparing the first eight weeks with the last eight weeks is redzone usage. Swift had 14 more redzone touches than Monangai from Weeks 1 to 8, whereas Monangai had 2 more redzone touches than Swift from Weeks 10-17. But here’s the thing: Swift only had 4 less redzone touches in Weeks 10-17 (18) compared to Weeks 1-8 (22), and he scored the same amount of redzone touchdowns during each span (4). Let’s not forget: Ben Johnson has previously had two RBs finish with 8+ TDs in every year he’s been an offensive playcaller: 2022 (Jamaal Williams & Swift), 2023 (Gibbs & Montgomery), and 2024 (Gibbs & Montgomery).
- Bottom line is: Swift is still projected to (i) have more touches than Monangai on the season, (ii) take up the more valuable work in the receiving game, and (iii) be part of an offense that can get him 8-10 TDs with the upside to hit 12+ TDs. While the Bears lost some talent on the OLine (LT Ozzy Trapillo out for some time with injury, C Drew Dalman retiring), analysts are still expecting this unit to be pretty solid due to the replacements they’ve brought in (PFF has them 5th among OLines, FTN has them 6th).
That all adds up to a smash on Swift for me, where I’m comfortable reaching pretty far ahead of ADP to grab him (I have him around 36th in my combined RB/WR rankings, and he’s going as the 45th RB/WR off the board).
Honorable Mentions: Joe Burrow (CIN QB, ADP Pick 5.05), Jameson Williams (DET WR, ADP Pick 5.09), Bhayshul Tuten (JAX RB, ADP Pick 5.12)
Favorite Picks from Round Six
*Full disclosure: Christian Watson (GB WR, ADP Pick 6.08) and Parker Washington (JAX WR, ADP Pick 6.11) are two guys I’m extremely high on, and both would easily be my favourite picks in the sixth round (in fact, I’m good with reaching for either in the late 5th). But I don’t want to rehash a lot of the analysis I’ve already done, so if you want to see why I have them ranked within my top 24 WRs, read here.
- Rome Odunze: Chicago Bears (WR): Sleeper ADP: Pick 6.02
I’m doubling down on Bears skill players with Odunze being one of my favorite picks in the 6th round. The situation with pass-catchers in Chicago reminds me of a classic “pick your fighter” scenario from Tekken or Mortal Combat: do you want third-year WR Odunze, sophomore TE Colston Loveland, or sophomore WR Luther Burden? Well, I’m planting my flag on Odunze outperforming ADP to a greater extent than Burden or Loveland, as Rome is the best value of any Bears pass-catcher when it comes to draft cost.
While I initially had Burden ahead of Odunze in my rankings, I’ve shifted things more towards Odunze as I’ve dug into everything a bit more. For Odunze to be a good value here, two things have to play out: (i) he has to be in the same form he was to start last season, as he suffered a stress fracture in his foot around Week 9 which ruined his back-half of the season, and (ii) this Bears passing game has to take a step forward, as Caleb was pretty inconsistent last year (I think this is a given, as more experience/comfortability in one of the best offensive schemes should lend itself to improvement from Williams).
If you had Rome on your fantasy team during the first eight weeks of 2025, I’m guessing you were pretty happy with the production you got. He was the WR35 in ADP, and through seven games (Bears had a bye in Week 5), he was the WR10 in FPPG (13.3). It wasn’t like Odunze was a world-beater, but he had 12.7 or more fantasy points in five out of seven matchups during that stretch. This included five receiving TDs over his first four games, where Rome was the clear redzone threat in the Bears offense. Things really took a downturn once he picked up the foot injury, as he was the WR55 in FPPG over the back-half with four missed games. It was a tale of two seasons for Odunze: without limitations to the foot, he was a borderline WR1; after issues with the foot, he was unplayable.
Well, I’m on the side of thinking the foot’s going to be alright this season. Everybody clutched onto Odunze’s early offseason quote that his injured foot would be the “new normal”, and his corresponding fall down draft boards seemed appropriate. But if you’ve looked at any other quote since, whether it be from Odunze, Ben Johnson, or the numerous twitter doctors weighing in, you’ll see the same thing: the foot looks great, and there isn’t a concern about this being a chronic issue. But it’s not just what people have been saying that leads me to think this, it’s also the continuous stream of camp notes/videos where Odunze’s looking like his past self:
The thing is – we’ve seen this song and dance before. Everyone gets hyped up in the preseason, and people that are posting clips usually have an agenda. We saw this with Luther Burden when he was getting all the hype in camp prior to his injury. So it’s very possible I’m wrong in thinking that Odunze’s foot will be fine during the season. But the facts are this: (i) Burden has been missing at camp since August 8th with a groin injury (missing out on valuable reps with Caleb), and he’s just now returning to practice with the team, (ii) we haven’t seen a world where Burden, Odunze, and Loveland are all healthy and on the field, so there’s no way to know who gets the most high value work, and (iii) Rome put up over 12.5 fantasy points in six out of nine games with this offense, so I’ve seen that he has it in him to produce over a pretty good sample size.
This isn’t necessarily an argument against Loveland or Burden, but say Rome just becomes the second most productive pass-catching option in an offense that should have more passing production than last year. I think he pays off his ADP and then some, whereas you’re paying a higher premium for Burden (ADP Pick 5.10) or Loveland (ADP Pick 4.08) without knowing exactly how the production will be distributed. At cost, I’m taking Odunze. But I wouldn’t reach any higher than the end of the 5th/beginning of the 6th to get him.
- Tucker Kraft: Green Bay Packers (TE): Sleeper ADP: Pick 6.05
Another TE is gracing my list after we highlighted Tyler Warren in the 5th, as Tucker Kraft clocks in as a great value based on his current ADP. Just think about this – Kraft is currently going at an ADP of 6.05 while LaPorta’s at 6.04, Pitts’ at 6.10, and Fannin’s at 7.02. That’s quite the collection of TEs in the 6th/7th round, where there’s a clear gap between TE4 (Tyler Warren at 5.02) and this group. Why I have Kraft on this list is because I think he should be going significantly higher than all those guys in the 6th/7th, which isn’t that crazy when you consider that Kraft was the TE2 in FPPG last year (12.6, ahead of both Kittle and Bowers).
If you’re not living on the internet like I am, you might have missed Kraft’s quote when he was asked about how his workload would play out this year after recovering from ACL surgery over the offseason: “They’re going to take into account my rep range probably until halfway through the season, and then they’re going to just pat me on the ass and send me out there and send me to the wolves.” This is the primary reason why Kraft’s falling down draft boards. However, I’m here to tell you that even with a reduced snap share, it’s likely that Kraft still provides top-end production due to his offensive environment.
The first aspect of Kraft’s offensive environment to focus on is the playcalling aspect, where Head Coach Matt Lafleur is calling the shots for the eighth year in a row. If there’s one thing LaFleur showed last year, it’s that he’s proficient at scheming up easy touches for Kraft in the pass game. This can be evidenced by three separate points: (i) Kraft’s 2.27 yards per route run figure in 2025 placed him second amongst TEs (just behind Dalton Kincaid), showing a clear emphasis on getting Kraft open targets in space where he’s able to utilize his YAC ability, (ii) Kraft led all TEs in first read target share when facing man coverage, displaying that he’s their #1 mismatch weapon when defenses go away from zone, and (iii) the Packers ex-OC Sean Mannion (coaching under Lafleur in 2025, now the OC of the Eagles) has indicated to Eagles players that he’s carrying over similar TE concepts, which Dallas Goedert touched on in a recent interview:
These tendencies actually show up in the red zone as well, where elite fantasy TEs usually separate with more TD opportunities (leading to week-winning production). Last year, Kraft led all TEs in receiving TDs per game and was 2nd among TEs in team receiving TD percentage (accounting for 46.4% of the Packers total receiving TDs on the year). That second figure is pretty astounding, considering the fact that Kraft only played 8 games through 2025. And the funny thing is, these numbers could’ve been even better had Kraft not been taken down at the one yard line twice through those eight healthy games. The following clip does a good job of breaking this all down with the tape to back it up.
So even with a reduced snap share, it’s clear that Kraft will still get the designed looks that allowed him to breakout in fantasy last season. Which takes us to the second aspect of Kraft’s offensive environment which should allow him to maintain a significant role in the offense despite reduced snaps: vacated targets.
The Packers lost two pretty significant target earners this past offseason, as both Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks left the team through free agency/trade. Those two accounted for 127 targets last year, targets which are now up for grabs in this Green Bay offense. Christian Watson and Jayden Reed are bound to soak up more targets after injury shortened seasons last year, and sophomore WR Matthew Golden could also increase his target share with one more year of experience in this system. However, it’s obvious that Kraft should benefit from a few more looks this year with a more condensed target competition. Worst case, it’s less snaps to start the year but the same amount of targets in an offense that’s projected to be in the top half of the league when it comes to passing efficiency.
I could also make the case that the Packers will be passing more this season after finishing 28th in passing rate last year. A significant part of their low pass rate came down to gamescript, as the Packers defense was 11th in PPG allowed (21.7). This allowed the offense to rely on more run-heavy approaches despite the fact that Josh Jacobs lacked efficiency in the run game (22nd out of 29 qualifying RBs in yards per rush attempt). Now, there are two differences to the Packers defense that could result in a worse scoring defense: (i) defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley is gone (Head Coach of the Dolphins now), so there’s the possibility for a slow start from this defense while learning a new scheme, and (ii) All Pro EDGE Micah Parsons isn’t set to return from injury until Week 6 at the earliest. So again, even if Kraft sees a reduced snap share over the first half of the season, more pass plays being called should level out any target concerns.
This all adds up to this simple fact: Kraft will have a solid market share throughout this season, with the upside to grow into a larger role as things progress with more high value looks in the redzone/on designed touches. The only concern is the knee, as this is a guy who relies on his ability as a runner when creating yards after the catch. That’s the bet you’re making, but I’m pushing my chips in on a young TE with only three NFL seasons that has zero past knee concerns with no structural damage in 2025 outside of the ACL. That’s the risk you’re taking, but the upside is immense.
Honorable Mentions: Jalen Hurts (PHI QB, ADP Pick 6.03), Sam LaPorta (DET TE, ADP Pick 6.04), Jaylen Warren (PIT RB, ADP Pick 6.09)
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