And just like that, we’re halfway through the NFL Regular Season. What a whirlwind it’s been to this point, as the weeks keep flying by and the Playoff picture starts to take shape. Last week, there was a grand total of 1 (!!!) close game on the whole slate, making way for some unpredictable production due to some blowout gamescripts. If you weren’t playing fantasy football, or you didn’t have bets on any games, you were thoroughly disappointed as a fan of the action (unless your favourite team was on the giving end of one of the blowouts). But we all know how this goes with the NFL – this week, there’s guaranteed to be more than a handful of close games, likely in the games we don’t even expect to be close.
It’s been a pretty tough stretch for the player prop overs we’ve been serving up. What had worked well last year isn’t going as smoothly this year. That being said, it wasn’t terrible, as it was a 4-5 week last week with some close misses (looking at you Loveland). That drops us to 22-30 on the season. Not great Bob – but the data we draw from gets more concrete as we get a bigger sample size. It’s still not a foolproof system, as these are 53 human beings on each team, playing a sport that can be dictated by more variables than I can count. But I’ll continue to dig into the matchups, and I have a good feeling we’ll get going soon.
No bullshit here – every betting line is verified and everything is tracked @betstamp if you guys want to follow me there (username: PlusMoneyJ).
2025 Season Record: 22-30 (-11.0 units)
So, without further ado, let’s get to the board.
Game 1: San Francisco 49ers @ New York Giants – 1:00 PM EST
Notable SF Injuries:
- C Jake Brendel (Out)
- DE Yetur Gross-Matos (Out)
- DE Bryce Huff (Out)
- WR Ricky Pearsall (Out)
- QB Brock Purdy (Questionable, LPs all week, unlikely to play)
- LB Dee Winters (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri)
Notable NYG injuries:
- CB Paulson Adebo (Out)
- TE Daniel Bellinger (Doubtful)
- OT Jermaine Eleumanor (Doubtful)
- CB Cordale Flott (Out)
- EDGE Chaucey Gholston (Out)
- S Jevin Holland (Questionable, LPs all week)
Best Bet: Christian McCaffrey Over 128.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115) – via Sports Interaction – 1.15 Units
Best Bet: Wan’Dale Robinson Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – via Sports Interaction – 1.15 Units
That’s right – we begin with a double dip in the first game on the slate, with two spots that I’m pretty dialled in on for this matchup.
We’ll start with CMC and his astronomical line (which isn’t actually high enough, as you’ll see based on his track record). The only negative thing you can say about this superstar RB is the fact that he hasn’t been much of a true runner throughout this season. Prior to Week 7, he had 6 straight games of 49+ rush yards, showing good consistency. However, he never had over 69 (nice) rush yards during that span, showing limited upside. So you’ll forgive me for skipping over the CMC over 75 rush yards for this week, seeing as he’s only done it one time this season.
However, when you look at CMC’s total scrimmage yards over each game this year, you start to get a clearer view of why we’re willing to take the stab at him getting 130+ total yards. Look at this shit:
- Week 1 vs SEA: 142 scrimmage yards
- Week 2 vs NO: 107 scrimmage yards
- Week 3 vs AZ: 140 scrimmage yards
- Week 4 vs JAX: 141 scrimmage yards
- Week 5 vs LAR: 139 scrimmage yards
- Week 6 vs TB: 111 scrimmage yards
- Week 7 vs ATL: 201 scrimmage yards (relaxxxxx)
- Week 8 vs HOU: 68 scrimmage yards
One of those things is not like the others, and I’m guessing that 68 yard total vs HOU is gonna remain an outlier as long as CMC is healthy this year. So, prior to the Texans game, this guy is over 135 scrimmage yards in 5 of 7 games. Not bad at all. And now, you have Pearsall set to miss this one (again), Mac Jones back in the starting lineup (good for CMC), and a matchup on deck that has every RB in the NFL salivating.
That’s right – let’s get into this Giants defence. Their pass-rush is solid, but they have a very limited ability to stop the run. They’re giving up the 4th most rush yards per game to RBs on the season (116.3), and this isn’t because teams are running the ball out in garbage time against them. They actually have the 8th least rush attempts per game against them (19), which results in a League worst 6.12 yards-per-carry allowed. For reference, the 2nd worst and 3rd worst defences in the League give up 5.26 yards-per-carry. That’s quite the disparity.
And it’s not like this NYG defence hasn’t gotten lit up when it comes to RB production through the air. They’ve allowed 20+ receiving yards to RBs in 5 straight games, and not one of the RBs in that stretch are close to the receiver that CMC is.
The 49ers are lined up as 2.5 point road favourites over a Giants team that’s missing key pieces (RIP Skattebo, love you). The gamescript is there for CMC to take over, and after a very mediocre showing last week against a tough defence, I think that’s exactly what he does.
Now – on to Wan’Dale. Wan’Dale has emerged as Dart’s favourite target over the last 3 weeks, leading the Giants in receiving yards in each contest over that span (Week 8 vs PHI for 48 yards, Week 7 vs DEN for 95 yards, and Week 6 vs PHI again for 84 yards). It’s a really good stretch for a guy who was previously seen as a PPR merchant, dominating out of the slot as he’s done throughout his career (65%-75% of snaps in the slot the last 3 weeks).
And my oh my, does Wan’Dale have a good matchup on his hands with how SF has been in coverage against slot WRs. It’s not too damning when you look at SF’s defence against WRs in general (11th most receiving yards per game allowed with 156.8). But then you look at their recent stretch (184+ receiving yards allowed to WRs in 3 of the last 4 games), along with their primary slot CB (Upton Stout, with 237 of his 284 snaps at slot CB), and things start to get enticing.
I’m not being hyperbolic when saying that Stout has been the 49ers worst CB this year. He’s allowed the most receptions (27) and the most receiving yards (242) of any CB on the roster, and he’s only played the 3rd most snaps of any 49ers CB. Jaylin Noel logged HOU’s most slot snaps vs the 49ers last week, and he went for 63 receiving yards. The week before, Darnell Mooney had ATL’s most slot snaps vs the 49ers, and he posted a season high 68 receiving yards. Even the week before that, TB WRs Sterling Shepard and Tez Johnson were the leaders in slot snaps, and both had 45+ receiving yards. It’s clear where teams are picking on the 49ers in the pass game.
Robinson isn’t an absolute gamebreaker, but with a line like this and the matchup, I have to take the shot.
Game 2: Atlanta Falcons @ New England Patriots – 1:00 PM EST
Notable ATL Injuries:
- LB Divine Diablo (IR)
- S Jessie Bates (Questionable, LPs all week)
- S Billy Bowman (Out)
- DE Leonard Floyd (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri)
- LB Jalon Walker (Questionable, LPs all week)
- WR Casey Washington (Out)
Notable NE injuries:
- RB Rhamondre Stevenson (Out)
Best Bet: Bijan Robinson Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – via 3ET – 1.15 Units
Best Bet: Kyle Pitts Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – via 3ET – 1.15 Units
I’ve got a sneaky feeling the most unpredictable team in football comes into Gillette and steals one from the 6-2 Patriots. And to do that, they’re going to need to get some offensive production going.
Let’s start with Bijan. What a fucking nightmare last week was for this guy. After 6 straight weeks of 90+ scrimmage yards to start the season, he faces the worst rush defence in the NFL in the Miami Dolphins, and he goes for … checks notes … 48 scrimmage yards, with only 25 rush yards on 9 carries. That’s absolutely shocking. Call it the Kirk Cousins effect, the loss of their other best weapon (Drake London) putting the focus more on Bijan, or just an overall letdown from a team that really looked like they had some juice after beating the Bills.
So, the public is down on Bijan, as are the books. The thing is, this guy is still the 2nd best receiving back in the League behind CMC. In 4 of 7 games this year, he’s had over 50 receiving yards, and he’s never had an outing with less than 23 receiving yards. There’s been some spike weeks (100+ receiving yards in Weeks 1 and 4), but the consistency is always there. And now, London and Penix are back to bring this ATL offence some juice, which is when Bijan performs best.
But a lot of this comes down to the matchup here. You want to run the ball against NE? Good luck. They’re currently allowing the least rush yards per game to RBs (54), and this is going against guys like Quinshon Judkins (71 rush yards per game, 19 rush yards vs NE and left with injury), James Cook (108 rush yards per game. 49 rush yards vs NE), and De’Von Achane (67 rush yards per game, 30 rush yards vs NE). It’s not like they’ve faced a killers’ row of RB rooms, but their competition hasn’t been bad, and they haven’t broken once.
That being said – if you want to throw to your RB, you can do it against NE. They’re allowing the 6th most receiving yards per game to RBs (39.6), and in 2 of their last 3 games, they’ve allowed 50+ receiving yards to the RBs. Browns 3rd string RB Dylan Sampson had 29 receiving yards against them last week when Judkins missed the 2nd half with injury. Tony Pollard, who has been anything but solid from a production standpoint, had a season-high 43 receiving yards against them the week before. Oh, and NO RB Alvin Kamara, who has taken a major step back this year, also put up a season-high 45 receiving yards against this NE defence in Week 6.
To me, Bijan is levels above any of those RBs as a pass-catcher (at this point of their careers, no disrespect to Kamara), and with how ATL’s defence looked last week against MIA, and how stellar this NE offence has been the whole season, I think they’re going to need to keep the action through the air to win this one. With that, Bijan receiving is the play.
But that’s not all. This NE defence is also giving up the 6th most receiving yards per game to TEs (66.8). It seems like their LBs and Safeties just aren’t up to par when it comes to covering RBs/TEs in the middle of the field, and Pitts is known to take advantage of a good matchup this year with a surprisingly solid production profile.
Everyone can clown on Pitts all they want for his lack of fantasy success in recent years and declining production since his rookie year. Fact of the matter is, he’s averaging almost 50 receiving yards a game to this point in the season, with 3 of his last 4 games at 59+ receiving yards. He’s no Travis Kelce or Brock Bowers, but he’s a solid pass-catcher that led the team in receiving yards last week while Drake London was Out.
He’s been good when Drake London has been in the lineup as well though, and I see him in line with guys like BUF TE Dalton Kincaid (108 receiving yards vs NE Week 5) and CLE TE Harold Fannin (62 receiving yards vs NE last week). If he’s just going to give an average performance this week, that’s likely enough for him to hit this line. Please ATL – do the right thing – don’t be stubborn running the ball against this stout front on your way to a loss. Lock em’ in.
Game 3: Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions – 1:00 PM EST
Notable MIN Injuries:
- OT Christian Darrisaw (Questionable, LP Fri)
- S Josh Metellus (Questionable, LP Fri)
- OT Brian O’Neill (Questionable, FP Fri)
- CB Jeff Okudah (Out)
- TE Josh Oliver (Out)
- Edge Andrew Van Ginkel (Questionable, FPs all week)
Notable DET injuries:
- OT Taylor Decker (Questionable, Non-Injury DNP Fri)
- S Kerby Joseph (Out)
- RB Craig Reynolds (Out)
Best Bet: David Montgomery Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – via Bet365 – 1.10 Units
Best Bet: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 23.5 Yards Longest Reception (-105) – via Sports Interaction – 1.05 Units
Sheesh – I’m having a bit of trouble having any confidence in the MIN offence coming into this week. JJ McCarthy is back to starting at QB, which can’t inspire even the most devout MIN fan when it comes to moving the ball downfield. The Lions D is giving up the 3rd least rush yards per game to RBs (65.9), and the 9th least receiving yards per game to RBs (24.6), taking Mason and Aaron Jones out of the equation. And the Lions defence is almost back to full health after missing key guys over the past few weeks, leading to this home matchup where I can’t see the Vikings holding a lead.
But this Detroit offence coming off the bye – well, I can’t help but have confidence in them, especially when it comes to these two players.
Starting with Monty, it’s not like he’s been an absolute world beater on the ground. In fact, he’s been pretty darn dreadful compared to last year, with only 3 of 7 games over 50 rush yards and 4 of 7 games with 25 rush yards or less. Hence his line being around 45 yards; you don’t know which version you’re going to get.
The weird thing is – it’s Monty, not Gibbs, who eats when they’re up against bad run defences:
- Week 7, against the Bucs (6th least rush yards per game to RBs) – Gibbs, 136 rush yards; Monty, 21 rush yards.
- Week 6, against the Chiefs (7th least rush yards per game to RBs) – Gibbs, 65 rush yards; Monty, 24 rush yards.
- Week 5, against the Bengals (most rush yards per game to RBs) – Gibbs, 54 rush yards; Monty 65 rush yards.
- Week 4, against the Browns (10th least rush yards per game to RBs) – Gibbs, 91 rush yards; Monty, 12 rush yards
- Week 3, against the Ravens (12th most rush yards per game to RBs) – Gibbs, 67 rush yards, Monty, 151 rush yards
- Week 2, against the Bears (6th most rush yards per game to RBs) – Gibbs, 94 rush yards; Monty, 57 rush yards
- Week 1, against the Packers (4th least rush yards per game to RBs) – Gibbs, 19 rush yards; Monty, 25 rush yards
The pattern’s quite clear: if the defence is in the bottom 12 of the NFL when it comes to rush yards per game allowed to RBs (as CHI, BAL, and CIN are), Monty’s going for 50+.
This MIN defence? 9th most rush yards per game allowed to RBs at 108.3. LAC RB Kimani Vidal had 117 rush yards against them last week, CLE RB Judkins went for 110 in Week 5, and PIT RB Kenneth Gainwell went for 99 in Week 4 (filling in for Jaylen Warren as the starter). It’s pretty clear that the Vikes can be run on by any kind of back, and with Monty’s track record against similar defences, coupled with the books lining up DET as 8 point favourites, it’s hard not to get behind Monty here.
But just because the Lions are likely to run the ball a lot in this one, doesn’t mean Amon-Ra still won’t get his. I’ve heard all the news this week with the Lions OC saying he has to get Jameson Williams more involved, but I’ve also heard this story a million times. He may very well get Jamo more involved, but if you haven’t shown it to me much this season (5/7 games under 45 receiving yards this year), I can’t buy in.
What I can buy into? A guy who has 6+ receptions in 6/7 games this season (showing repeated opportunity), 70+ receiving yards in 5/7 games this season (showing repeated production), and a long reception of 19+ yards in 6/7 games this season (showing repeated chunk gain ability). That’s St. Brown, and while this MIN defence is pretty decent when it comes to overall receiving yards per game allowed to WRs (8th least at 132.4), they give up the long ball more than one would think.
This long-shot vulnerability has resulted in the Vikings D giving up the highest yards per reception total to WRs this year (14.9). LAC WR Ladd McConkey (similar in build and usage to St. Brown) had a 27 yarder against them last week, PHI WR Devonta Smith (similar in build and usage to St. Brown) had a 79 yarder against them the week before, and even CLE WR Isaiah Bond (you guessed it, similar in build and usage to St. Brown) had a 22 yarder against them in their game before that. It’s these guys who aren’t the biggest in the room, and split time between the outside and the slot, that continue to burn this Vikings defence on the deep ball.
So, with St. Brown’s ability to get chunk gains, and the Vikings giving up about 15 yards for every catch they allow, I can see him getting this one quite easily (even if the gamescript isn’t conducive to a pass-heavy attack).
Game 4: Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans – 1:00 PM EST
Notable DEN Injuries:
- WR Marvin Mims (Out)
- CB Pat Surtain (Out)
Notable HOU injuries:
- DE Denico Autry (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri)
- TE Dalton Schultz (Questionable, FP Fri)
Best Bet: Courtland Sutton Over 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) – via Sports Interaction – 1.10 Units
It’s impossible to find more than one edge in this game with both defences being pretty stellar across the board. However, this is one I can get behind against a Texans defence that’s been good everywhere except when it comes to deep ball conversions. Let’s get into it.
The Texans secondary is pretty damn solid, with stud CB Derek Stingley Jr. leading a pack of sticky coverage defenders on their way to allowing the 10th least receiving yards per game to WRs (135.7). That being said, they’re giving up the 8th highest mark when it comes to yards per reception allowed to WRs (13.2), and here’s some of the long reception totals they’ve given up to WRs thus far:
- Week 8 vs SF: 25 yarder to Jauan Jennings, 18 yarder to Kendrick Bourne (101 receiving yards total allowed to WRs)
- Week 7 vs SEA: 32 yarder to Cooper Kupp, 26 yarder to JSN (158 receiving yards total allowed to WRs)
- Week 5 vs BAL (Week 6 Bye): 56 yarder to Flowers, 29 yarder to Hopkins (118 receiving yards total allowed to WRs)
- Week 4 vs TEN: 33 yarder to Ayomanor, 22 yarder to Ridley (80 receiving yards total allowed to WRs)
- Week 3 vs JAX: 46 yarder to BTJ, 22 yarder to Hunter (133 receiving yards total allowed to WRs)
- Week 2 vs TB: 22 yarder to Evans, 20 yarder to Miller (139 receiving yards total allowed to WRs)
- Week 1 vs LAR: 25 yarder to Puka, 24 yarder to Adams (221 receiving yards total allowed to WRs)
That’s their whole season right there – and they’ve allowed at least two WRs on the other team to long receptions of 18+ yards each game. Opposing WR rooms don’t need volume to get the deep ball going – it could happen at any moment against this stout defence.
And while Sutton has had some disappointments across this season, he’s still a solid WR when it comes to bringing in long catches. Long reception total of 22+ yards in 6/8 contests this year, with a long reception of 32+ yards in 3 of his last 4 games. He’s the clear #1 target in a passing offence that’s been exceptional this year (for the most part), as he leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards by a healthy margin.
With that kind of production + opportunity, combined with the tendencies of this HOU defence, I’m seeing him have an easy time hitting this line. Book it.
Game 5: Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans – 1:00 PM EST
Notable LAC Injuries:
- OG Mekhi Becton (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri)
- TE Will Dissly (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri)
- RB Hassan Haskins (Out)
- S Tony Jefferson (Out)
- CB Tarheeb Still (Out)
Notable TEN injuries:
- Edge Arden Key (Out)
- WR Calvin Ridley (Out)
- DT Jeffrey Simmons (Out)
- S Xavier Woods (Out)
Best Bet: Kimani Vidal Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – via Sports Interaction – 1.15 Units
Best Bet: Quentin Johnston Over 18.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) – via Sports Interaction – 1.10 Units
Even for those of you who know how unpredictable the NFL is – you can’t think that the Titans actually have a higher than 1% chance of winning this game. It should be a slaughter, but even if it does somehow turn out to be close, I still like these two looks in this game.
Starting with Vidal, a guy who’s really stepped up for this Chargers team with their top two RBs (Hampton and Harris) missing time. In the 3 games he’s started this year, he’s had 87 rush yards per game and 2 games over 115 rush yards. The two teams he’s put up 115+ rush yards against: the Vikings (8th most rush yards per game allowed to RBs at 108.6) and the Dolphins (3rd most rush yards per game allowed to RBs at 119.2). The one stinker he had, where he only got to 20 rush yards? It was against the Colts, who are allowing the 8th least rush yards per game to RBs (75.5) and had the Chargers reeling after putting up 38 points. If he’s had a good matchup and a decent gamescript – he ate – even if the sample size isn’t too big.
And this Titans rush defence – it’s not good. They’re allowing the 2nd most rush yards per game to RBs (119.4) to go along with the 5th highest yard-per-carry total (5.1), showing that this isn’t all about teams piling on run plays with the lead. No, RBs are efficient against this Titans defence, and it’s not like they haven’t faced some mediocre RBs along the way and still given up production (Rhamondre Stevenson and Emari Demercado both had 80+ rush yard outings against this team). Add on the fact that they’re missing their best run defender in DT Simmons, and things get really interesting.
I get that this LAC OLine is beat up yet again this week – but that’s been the story for each of the past weeks that Vidal has started, and even their starting OLinemen (outside of Alt) each have a PFF blocking grade under 60. This isn’t about the Chargers always dominating the line of scrimmage, it’s about (i) great run designs from OC Greg Roman, (ii) the fear of the pass with Justin Herbert, and (iii) Vidal making great individual plays. Sign me up.
But we won’t just stop there with this Chargers offence. QJ deserves some love here too, despite giving us a big ol’ goose-egg last week on zero targets. If you throw out that game last week, QJ has had a long reception of 23+ yards in 5 of 6 games. He’s the consistent deep threat in this offence, and despite Tre Harris getting more involvement last week (which I think came down to gamescript with Keenan Allen only playing 25% of snaps), I still see Quje getting on the field more in this one after getting closer to full health (he missed Week 6, the game before last, with injury).
Some might be scared that the emergence of TE Orande Gadsden will hurt QJ going forward – and they might be right. But that’s a volume thing, not a long reception thing. Besides, Gadsden’s good games (his last 3) came against the Vikings, Colts, and Dolphins. All of those defences are worse at defending the TE than the Titans. I’m not saying the Gadsden production will shut down, but you target the Titans with the WRs more than you do the TEs.
And that’s all the more obvious when you see that the Titans are giving up the 6th most receiving yards per game to WRs (162.4) to go along with the 11th highest yards per reception mark to WRs (13). Three Colts WRs had an 18+ yard reception against them last week (Pierce with a 50+ yarder, who profiles closest to QJ), three Patriots WRs had a 24+ yard reception against them the week before (Boutte with a 39 yarder, who profiles closest to QJ), and two Raiders WRs had a 16+ yard long reception against them the week before that (Tre Tucker with a 37 yarder, who profiles closest to QJ).
Add on the fact that Ladd has been limited in practice the whole week with a calf injury, and we’re cooking with gas here. Light em’ up.
Game 6: Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers – 1:00 PM EST
Notable IND Injuries:
- DE Samson Ebukam (Out)
- CB Jaylon Jones (Questionable, LPs all week)
- DT Grover Stewart (Questionable, FP Fri)
Notable PIT injuries:
- S Chuck Clark (Out)
- S Deshon Elliott (IR)
- LB Cole Holcomb (Out)
- S Jabrill Peppers (Out)
Best Bet: Tyler Warren Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – via Betway – 1.15 Units
Best Bet: DK Metcalf Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-117) – via NorthStar – 1.17 Units
Two pass-catchers on opposing teams in what should be a shootout – what could go wrong? I really could’ve gone any way I wanted when it comes to either pass-attack, but I’m seeing the most value between these two guys. Let’s get into why.
I mean, seriously, look at some of these stats. The Steelers are allowing the most pass yards per game by about 20 yards (293.4) – Indiana Jones should crush, but who knows how much work he gets with this projected gamescript + JT ending drives with 40+ yard runs. The Colts give up the 3rd most pass yards per game (271.6) – ARod should be good, but who knows if he has enough weapons/protection to sustain a high yardage total. The Steelers allow the most receiving yards per game to WRs (182.6) – all the IND WRs should get a piece of a very large pie, but which one shines? The Colts allow the 3rd most receiving yards per game to TEs (72.4) – all the PIT TEs should get involved, but which one steals the show?
But here’s the thing – the Colts are giving up the 4th most receiving yards per game to WRs (170.4), and the Steelers are giving up the most receiving yards per game to TEs (79.3). The key distinction when it comes to DK and Warren vs all the other options noted above? They are both the only show in town at those respective positions, and the gamescript isn’t going to impact either of them in such a severe way that they can’t hit these low totals.
I can understand why DK’s line is hovering right around 60 receiving yards based on his lack of total yardage this year. But let’s remember this – he has 50+ receiving yards in 4 straight games, and that was going against the following defences: (i) Packers (allowing 146 receiving yards to WRs per game), (ii) Bengals (allowing 142 receiving yards to WRs per game), (iii) Browns (allowing 139 receiving yards to WRs per game), and (iv) Vikings (allowing 132 receiving yards to WRs per game). All of those averages are a far cry from the 170 receiving yards per game that the Colts are giving up, and you’re telling me he was still at 50+ receiving yards in those matchups? Now this 60 yard line is seeming pretty juicy.
The same goes for Tyler Warren, who has been the model of consistency through this whole year when it comes to TE production. Never a game under 38 receiving yards, and 5/8 games with 63+ receiving yards. The only two times he’s faced a defence that’s given up over 65 receiving yards per game to TEs this year (Dolphins and Cardinals), he’s come away with 76 receiving yards and 63 receiving yards respectively. And now, he’s up against a team that gives up the most receiving yards per game to TEs, and his line is at 55? I’ll take it.
Lock these two in – and watch the sparks fly in a matchup where neither defence can stop anything through the air.
Game 7: Chicago Bears @ Cincinnati Bengals – 1:00 PM EST
Notable CHI Injuries:
- WR Luther Burden (Out)
- RB D’Andre Swift (Out)
- RB Roschon Johnson (Out)
Notable CIN injuries:
- QB Joe Flacco (Questionable, DNP Fri but LP Thurs)
- DE Trey Hendrickson (Doubtful)
- OG Dalton Risner (Questionable, LP Fri)
- LB Logan Wilson (Doubtful)
Best Bet: Caleb Williams Over 241.5 Passing Yards (-111) – via Bet105 – 1.11 Units
Best Bet: Tee Higgins Over 20.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) – via Sports Interaction – 1.10 Units*
*Pull the bet if Flacco isn’t starting
Ooooo baby – I think we might have another shootout on our hands. I’ve been wrong before, but with how bad this Bengals defence has been, coupled with how great the CIN offence has looked with Flacco at the helm (expected to play per Rapoport), I’m expecting some fireworks.
The funny thing is, even though this Bengals defence has been beat up all year, the bane of their existence has been RB production and TE production, with WRs kind of getting left by the wayside. The Bengals are allowing the most rush yards per game to RBs by a healthy margin (132.1), which goes along great with the 4th most receiving yards per game allowed to RBs (47.1). But with Swift Out in this one, I’m just not quite there on trusting Kyle Monangai. I’ve really only seen one good game from him, and there’s always the possibility that Travis Homer and DJ Moore get some work out of the backfield. I’m not saying he’s going to have a bad game, but with where his line has ballooned up to (over 70 rush yards), I’m just not comfortable with that one.
The same goes for the Bears TEs. While the Bengals give up the 2nd most receiving yards per game to TEs this year (74.3), it’s hard to discern where all that production will go between Kmet and Loveland.
Nonetheless, the Bengals are giving up the 4th most pass yards per game this season (262.4). So while I can’t exactly predict who’s going to get the receiving production for the Bears, I can predict that they are going to get some good production through the air. Couple that with a good gamescript, and things get pretty exciting.
The main hold up with this pick is how Caleb Williams has been performing lately. Fantasy football managers have the perception that Caleb’s production has fallen off, but in reality, it’s only been his rushing production and passing touchdowns that have fallen off. In 3 of his last 5 games, he’s had over 250 pass yards. The only two games he didn’t were against the Saints (beat them handedly so he didn’t have to push the ball much) and the Raiders (a close game, but a weird one in Vegas where both teams seemed to be sleepwalking through the game). He could definitely pull off a Raiders-like performance this week, but with the high number of points the Bengals are projected to put up in this one (team total of around 24.5 points), I have to think he’ll be over this line when it’s all said and done.
Which leads us right into the next pick – good ol’ Tee Higgins to convert on a long ball. The guy only had 1 reception last week – but that reception was a 44 yard bomb converted for a TD on a stingy Jets secondary (allowing the 8th least pass yards per game this year). The Bears aren’t much worse in the secondary (allowing the 13th least pass yards per game), but they have a tendency to give up the long ball to WRs when they do allow receiving production.
The Bears have the 2nd highest yards per reception allowed total in the NFL (14.6), lending some good support based on Higgins’ 19+ yard long receptions in every game Flacco has played this year. Last week, backup BAL QB Snoop Huntley started and got Bateman a 36 yarder and Flowers a 20 yarder. The week before, it was the now benched NO QB Spencer Rattler who came to town, and he got Olave a 57 yarder. The week before that, when they faced an actual competent QB in WAS’ Jayden Daniels, they allowed Jaylin Lane and Luke McCaffrey to both come down with 30+ yarders.
It’s just too easy to see Flacco hitting Higgins on a deep route in this one. Even if it’s just an intermediate route, there’s still a good chance he’s hitting this line. Lock it down.
Game 8: Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers – 1:00 PM EST
Notable CAR Injuries:
- OG Damien Lewis (Questionable, FP Fri)
- C Cade Mays (Out)
- OT Taylor Moton (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri)
- Edge Princely Umanmielen (Out)
- LB Trevin Wallace (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri)
Notable GB injuries:
- DE Lukas Van Ness (Out)
- LB Quay Walker (Questionable, LP Fri)
- WR Dontayvion Wicks (Out)
Best Bet: Tucker Kraft Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) – via Sports Interaction – 1.10 Units
We’re staying in the flames with our last bet of the day. Tucker Kraft has been an absolute destroyer this year in all but a few games, and he’s only been getting better and more consistent as the year goes on.
Kraft definitely started off a bit inconsistent, being held under 30 receiving yards in 2 of his first 3 games, with the Packers seeming to forget they had a stud on their hands. Since then? 4 straight games over 40 receiving yards, with performances of 56 receiving yards against the Cowboys, 58 receiving yards against the Cardinals, and a wild 143 receiving yards against the Steelers last week.
The funny thing is – all of those defences give up 50+ receiving yards per game to TEs (bottom half of the League). The same goes for the team he put up 124 yards against in Week 2, the Washington Commander (61.1). So, if the matchup is good for TEs, it’s likely that Kraft is eating that week.
And you guessed it – the Panthers are bad against the TE position. They’re allowing the 7th most receiving yards per game to TEs (66), and it hasn’t just been one or two big performances that skewed this. In 5 of 8 games this year, they’ve given up 50+ receiving yards to opposing TEs, with the athletic YAC TEs (similar to Kraft) like Trey McBride and Darren Waller both going for 75+.
With all that being said – the projected gamescript here isn’t conducive to Kraft getting much volume. Well, the good thing is, the Panthers are also allowing the 5th highest yards per reception mark to TEs (12). Kraft’s long reception totals this year (starting with the most recent): 59, 22, 24, 16, 18, 57, 15. That’s some great consistency, especially lately, and those aforementioned TEs (McBride and Waller) both had 30+ yard long receptions in their games against CAR.
It all lines up for a good Kraft day – but even if he doesn’t have the volume, he should get the one chunk gain needed to cash this bet.
Well, that’s all she wrote on a heavy board for us this Sunday. Best of luck to everyone and see you next week.