Welcome back one and all. We’re on to Week 8 of the NFL season, where it seems like everything on the gridiron changes from matchup to matchup. We had 11 of 12 favourites win outright last week – so you just know there’s going to be 6+ underdogs that hit this week. Bye weeks are hitting hard at this point, and everyone is starting to look up playoff chance percentages for their respective teams (often consulting multiple sources until they find the highest number). Well, maybe not Jets fans, who likely have the NFL “Tankathon” website saved as a bookmark on their web browser (good thing there’s no draft lottery system in the NFL). But as we get to (almost) the halfway point of the season – nothing can keep us engaged like some good ol’ fashioned player prop overs.
We haven’t been doing so well lately when it comes to our picks. Another 2-5 week last week drops us to 18-25 on the season. Not the best – but still plenty of time to get back above even by stacking a few positive weeks. It’s still been fun getting into the weeds of each game on the early slate, but it’s time to crush some analysis and get everything on track. I think there’s some gas in the tank this week to start the climb back up.
No bullshit here – every betting line is verified and everything is tracked @betstamp if you guys want to follow me there (username: PlusMoneyJ).
2025 Season Record: 18-25 (-9.5 units)
So, without further ado, let’s get to the board.
Game 1: Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers – 1:00 PM EST
Notable BUF Injuries:
- S Taylor Rapp (Out, IR)
- WR Josh Palmer (Out)
- LB Matt Milano (LPs all week, Questionable)
- TE Dalton Kincaid (LPs all week, Questionable)
- DT Da’Quan Jones (Out)
- LB Terrel Bernard (LPs all week, Questionable)
- CB Maxwell Hairston (LPs all week, Questionable)
Notable CAR injuries:
- QB Bryce Young (Doubtful, likely Out)
Best Bet: James Cook Over 12.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – via Bet365 – 1.10 Units
Full disclosure for this one – this is a tough game to get a read on from a player prop perspective. I’m almost certain that the Bills will steamroll Carolina in this one after losing two straight games prior to their bye last week, but how do things really play out here in terms of player performance? You can’t trust a single Bills WR. Kincaid is banged up, and though the Bills rush defence has been porous this season, they’re getting back two DLinemen (Hoecht and Ogunjobi) and they’re likely to be leading for most of this game. On top of all that, Red Rifle Andy Dalton is up for CAR at QB, which can’t really inspire any confidence in Carolina passcatchers.
The gamescript, and the Panther’s surprising veracity on defence when it comes to pass coverage vs WRs (3rd best in the NFL, only allowing 116.7 receiving yards per game), all leads one to think this will be a James Cook game. The only problem is – the once historically bad CAR run defence is now one of the best units against the run in the NFL (they’re allowing less rush yards per game to RBs than the Broncos, the Bucs, and the Rams, which are three of the best run defences in the NFL). They haven’t faced bad rush attacks either. They held Javonte Williams (averaging 84.5 rush yards per game) to 29 rush yards and 2.2 yards per carry in Week 6, and De’Von Achance (67.5 rush yards per game) to 16 rush yards and 1.6 yards per carry in Week 5. After allowing Etienne to rip off 142 rush yards in Week 1 against them, the next highest total (for an RB they’ve faced) is Bijan Robinson with 72 rush yards. That’s pretty damn solid.
It’s possible that the Bills still have success on the ground, but that’s hard to predict with numbers like that. And I know what you’re all thinking: “James Cook as a receiver??? He’s not a pass-catching back, and he hasn’t had a reception for 2 weeks!” Well, that’s correct, but I have a feeling he’s going to be very involved in this game.
The first point of importance here is this Carolina defence. They’re allowing an average of 5 receptions per game and 28.4 receiving yards per game to RBs (both middle-of-the-pack in the NFL). A grand total of seven RBs that have faced them this year have 14+ receiving yards, and while Cook’s only had 10+ receiving yards in 3 games this year, he gets most of his receiving work when teams drop back into zone coverage (9/11 of his receptions this year came against zone coverage). Well, guess what CAR’s defensive tendencies are in coverage? That’s right, they play the most zone coverage in the League (81.6%).
Then – there’s the narrative surrounding this one. James Cook played a season-low 30 snaps on offence last week, with Ty Johnson almost splitting snaps with him (24). Johnson did hardly anything with those snaps (ran 15 routes and had 1 reception for 11 yards), and the Bills lost the game. My thoughts are that James Cook should get a big piece of the snap-share pie in this one, as the Bills try to get back to their identity of using their RBs to control the game. Expect 1 or 2 screens to Cook in this one, where he could easily smash this line in one rip.
Sometimes – you have to project things without an amazing hit rate to back it up. That’s what I’m doing here, so ride this one at your own risk.
Game 2: Miami Dolphins @ Atlanta Falcons – 1:00 PM EST
Notable MIA Injuries:
- TE Julian Hill (Out)
Notable ATL injuries:
- QB Michael Penix (Questionable, unlikely to play)
- LB Jalon Walker (Out)
- DE Zach Harrison (LPs all week, Questionable)
- LB Divine Diablo (Out)
- S Billy Bowman (Out)
- RB Tyler Allgeier (LPs all week, Questionable)
Best Bet: De’Von Achane Over 62.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – via Bet365 – 1.10 Units
Tired: Betting Bijan Robinson against the worst run defence in the NFL when his line is over 90 rush yards; Wired: Betting Achane against a defence that’s allowed 90+ rush yards to RBs over the last 4 weeks. Let’s get into it.
It would be so easy to smash that Bijan line here. BUT – fun fact, Bijan has only had 90+ rush yards in 2 of 6 games this season. His rushing + receiving work has been impressive, but that line is set at around 133 yards, and he’s only done that in 3 of 6 games this season. Then people start getting ideas about Allgeier, trying to scoop a lower rushing line with some upside. BUT – he’s had LPs in practices across the week, and his line’s set at around 43 rush yards (something he’s only accomplished 2/6 times this year). I can’t get behind it, even with the Dolphins allowing over 125 rush yards per game to RBs (though they did hold Judkins under 90 rush yards and to 3.4 yards per carry last week in a blowout loss with a run-heavy gamescript).
And for some crazy reason – I think there’s a 50/50 chance that this stays a close game. Call it the plethora of injuries to the Falcons, the mounting pressure on the Dolphins to fire McDaniels, or the unpredictable nature of the NFL. If that’s the case, it will only help Achane in getting his rushing yardage. The thing is – it might not matter, as Achane is kind of gamescript proof lately.
In 4 of his last 5 games, Achane has been over this rushing line. Those 4 games were: (i) last week against the Browns (a blowout loss against the #1 PFF rush defence), (ii) Week 6 vs the Chargers (a close loss), (iii) Week 4 against the Jets (a close win against the #4 PFF rush defence), and (iv) Week 3 against the Bills (a pretty big loss). You see two games there where he still had good rushing output when they were getting shellacked, with his 82 rush yards against the Browns last week serving as the best example. For crying out loud, the guy is over 5 yards-per-carry this year – he’s a good back.
And man, this Falcons defence is stellar everywhere besides the run game. They’re allowing the fewest pass yards per game (155), the 2nd fewest receiving yards to WRs per game (111), and the fewest receiving yards to TEs per game (16). That’s absurd over a 6 game sample size, especially when considering the QBs they’ve faced (Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen, and NFL passing yards/game leader Mac Jones). But then you look at their rush yards allowed to RBs, and over their last 4 games, they haven’t held an RB room under 90 rush yards. CMC just lit them up for 129 rush yards last week, James Cook had 87 rush yards the week before, Chuba Hubbard had 73 rush yards against them in Week 3; hell, even WAS RB Chris Rodriguez had 59 rush yards against them in Week 4. And now, they’re dealing with a banged up LB core that’s light on run-stuffing ability.
With Tua currently having trouble finding his WRs due to the fact that he can’t see over the OLine, I’d expect McDaniels to keep things simple here and establish a run game that’s flourished over the last 5 weeks. Line up Achane – it’s the Dolphins only chance.
Game 3: San Francisco 49ers @ Houston Texans – 1:00 PM EST
Notable SF Injuries:
- QB Brock Purdy (Out)
- WR Ricky Pearsall (Out)
- C Jake Brendel (Out)
- DE Yetur Gross-Matos (Out)
- DE Bryce Huff (Out)
- CB Deommodore Lenoir (LP Fri, Questionable)
Notable HOU injuries:
- WR Nico Collins (Out)
- WR Christian Kirk (Out)
- DE Denico Autry (LPs Weds and Thurs, DNP Fri, Questionable)
Best Bet: Kendrick Bourne Over 15.5 Yards Long Reception (-115) – via NorthStar – 1.15 Units
Best Bet: Jayden Higgins Over 16.5 Yards Long Reception (-115) – via NorthStar – 1.15 Units
The rare double banger is back in this one, where I expect to see some explosive passing plays even if there isn’t a ton of offensive output. Let’s check out why.
We have to start off with what both of these defences are good at: stopping the run. They are both holding opposing RB rooms under 85 rush yards per game this year, with a grand total of ONE RB going for 100+ yards on the ground against either unit. Pretty elite stuff, and on top of that, it’s difficult to get there with CMC’s receiving line when the Texans are allowing the fewest receiving yards per game to RBs (18.1).
Looking at TE production, things don’t get any better. The Texans are a top 5 unit when it comes to TE receiving yards per game (37.3), and the Niners are just outside the top 10 (48.5).
Even QB production is limited against these defences, where the Texans are again top 5 when it comes to pass yards per game allowed (197) and the 49ers are in the top half of the League (225). BUT – both defences are outside the Top 10 when it comes to receiving yards per game allowed to WRs, and things get even better when you start looking up how many explosive plays they’ve allowed thus far.
Let’s just keep it easy and take a snapshot of each team over the last 3 weeks:
49ers:
- Week 7: 17+ yard receptions allowed to three ATL WRs
- Week 6: 17+ yard receptions allowed to four TB WRs
- Week 5: 22+ yard receptions allowed to three LAR WRs
And now, the Niners have a banged up secondary and pass-rush unit, leading to more time for Stroud to let the long plays develop.
Texans:
- Week 7: 26+ yard receptions allowed to JSN and Kupp (SEA)
- Week 5 (Week 6 bye): 29+ yard receptions allowed to DHop and Zay Flowers (BAL)
- Week 4: 22+ yard receptions allowed to Ayomanor and Ridley (TEN)
You get the picture, don’t you? Both teams are pretty stingy when it comes to consistent production, but the splash plays are there to be had for WRs. So – how does each of these WRs do when it comes to converting explosives?
Jayden Higgins: 4 of 6 games with a long reception of 14+ yards, and 3 of those games with a long reception of 23+ yards (as a backup option to Nico Collins the whole year). Kendrick Bourne: 3 of his last 4 games with a 17+ yard long reception, and never one game without a 10+ yard long reception. Then, you add in the following facts: HOU WR Nico Collins is Out, HOU WR Christian Kirk is Out, and SF WR Ricky Pearsall is Out.
I don’t know about you guys, but I’m expecting both of these to hit with above-average confidence.
Game 4: New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles – 1:00 PM EST
Notable NYG Injuries:
- CB Paulson Adebo (Out)
- LB Brian Burns (LP Fri, Questionable)
- LB Chauncey Gholston (Out)
- S Jevon Holland (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
Notable PHI injuries:
- WR AJ Brown (Out)
- CB Adoree Jackson (Out)
- C Cam Jurgens (Out)
- LB Azeez Ojulari (Out)
Best Bet: Jaxson Dart Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-110) – via Bet365 – 1.10 Units
Best Bet: Devonta Smith Over 24.5 Yards Long Reception (-118) – via ParlayPlay – 1.18 Units
God – another tough game to get a good read on. Does the Giants offence continue to function at an elite level against good defences? Does the Philly defence figure it out after giving up an average of 25.6 points the last 5 weeks? Does Hurts continue to put up 280+ pass yards as he has the last 3 weeks? Does Saquon and this OLine continue to look like they’ve lost the magic they had last year? WHAT THE HELL IS GOING TO HAPPEN?
Well, we’re going with the two highest probability bets I could find in this one, with Dart hitting this number in 3 of his last 4 and Smith hitting his in 2 of his last 3. But it’s not just hit rates that are going to get it there in this one – we have to talk about a few more things.
Regarding Dart, there are a few things playing in his favour here. After putting up 50+ rush yards from Week 4 to Week 6, it’s fair to say this guy can tote the rock. On top of that, his RT has been banged up all week (LPs) the message inside the Philly locker room is to be more aggressive in the trenches. Ergo, more pass rush aggressiveness leading to a higher number of scrambles by Dart.
The Eagles also have the 11th highest man coverage rate in the NFL (26.6%), which is conducive to QB rushing and has led to Bo Nix scrambling for 22 yards in Week 5, Dart scrambling for 58 rush yards in Week 6, and none other than the banged up old man, Carson Wentz, scrambling for 28 (!!!) yards last week (Wentz had 4, 12, 13, and 0 rush yards in his other 4 starts). It’ll be there for Dart, he just has to take it.
And moving on to Devonta Smith, we have a couple factors working in his favour. AJ Brown has missed a full week of practice and we don’t know if he’s playing in this one. Devonta has recorded at least a 16+ yard long reception over his last 6 games, with a 28+ yard long reception in 3 of those games. And this NYG defence – man, it is beat up, and they’ve been getting beat deep lately.
Just look at that injury report above! We might be dealing with a whole new secondary in this one. Even when guys have been healthy in the Giants secondary, it was DEN WRs Sutton and Mims with 31+ yard long receptions last week, PHI passcatchers AJ Brown and Dallas Goedert with 30+ yard long receptions the week before, and NO Rasheed Shaheed with an 87 yard long reception the week before that (where Olave just missed out on a big one). There opportunity will be there for Smith, Hurts just has to execute.
All in all – I don’t know what to expect in this game. But when it comes to player performance, these two things are definitely more likely to happen than not.
Game 5: Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots – 1:00 PM EST
Notable CLE Injuries:
- TE David Njoku (LPs all week, Questionable)
Notable NE injuries:
- S Kyle Dugger (LPs all week, Questionable)
Best Bet: Kayshon Boutte Over 18.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) – via Sports Interaction – 1.10 Units
Well, they keep handing me Boutte long reception lines under 20, I’m going to keep taking him. That’s especially so when considering how many explosive pass plays this vaunted CLE defence has allowed so far on the year.
The Cleveland defence – man, they are stout. 4th least pass yards per game allowed (187.6), 6th least rush yards per game allowed to RBs (70.6), 2nd least receiving yards per game allowed to RBs (18.4), 6th least receiving yards per game allowed to WRs (127), and 11th least receiving yards per game allowed to TEs (46.7). With all that, it’s fair to say that there won’t be much offensive output for the Patriots offence in this one. Same goes for CLE, as the Patriots defence has been solid against all position groups as well (not to mention the only player on the Browns offence that’s competent is RB Judkins).
But the one thing the Browns keep giving up? You guessed it, long receptions. Let’s get a snapshot over the last few weeks of how this has gone:
- Week 7 vs MIA: 2 pass-catchers with 28+ yard long receptions (only 154 passing yards total)
- Week 6 vs PIT: 2 pass-catchers with 25+ yard long receptions (only 235 passing yards total)
- Week 5 vs MIN: 2 pass-catchers with 32+ yard long receptions (268 passing yards total)
- Week 4 vs DET: 3 pass-catchers with 25+ yard long receptions (only 168 passing yards total)
You can see that the QB doesn’t have to have a productive day to hit long pass completions against the CLE D. And then, we look to Boutte this year – and you won’t be disappointed.
Boutte’s long reception totals this year (starting with the most recent): 39, 29, 19, 18, 20, 16, 24. He may not get the most targets in this NE pass attack, but he’s always converting the long ones (Boutte 7/7 games with 16+ yard long reception, Diggs at 4/7). Yet the sportsbooks keep feeding us this line, saying “there’s no way he can keep this up”. Well, with Drake Maye still being T-1st in PFF grading on deep throws this year (and T-5th in 20+ yard completions), I’d say he’ll keep it up in this matchup. Hit it.
Game 6: New York Jets @ Cincinnati Bengals – 1:00 PM EST
Notable NYJ Injuries:
- CB Sauce Gardner (Out)
- RB Breece Hall (FP Fri, Questionable)
- WR Josh Reynolds (DNP Fri, Questionable)
- TE Mason Taylor (LP Fri, Questionable)
- QB Tyrod Taylor (LPs all week, Questionable)
- WR Garrett Wilson (Out)
- LB Quincy Williams (FPs all week, likely to return from IR)
Notable CIN injuries:
- DE Trey Hendrickson (DNP Fri, Questionable)
Best Bet: Tee Higgins Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – via Sports Interaction – 1.15 Units
I’m telling you right now – don’t sleep on Tee Higgins with Joe Flacco. Elite Joe has revived this Bengals offence to the level that Joe Burrow was previously operating at, and while the books have reacted to this for Ja’Marr (87-88 receiving yard line), they have yet to get to Higgins. Let’s get into it.
One thing that should be touched on is the gamescript here. It’s not really all that pleasant for CIN passing, as the Jets likely won’t score much, and things could get ugly real quick. So, you’d think the Bengals would stick with the rushing attack. But I have my doubts as to whether their success against PIT in the run game last week will be sustainable, as the Jets defence recently held Broncos RBs to 47 rush yards total, and now they’re likely getting back their best run defender, LB Quincy Williams. If Williams is Out, I don’t blame you for smashing Brown’s line.
But even with a negative gamescript, I’m sure the Bengals are still going to want to show off their new and improved passing attack (at least for a few quarters). And in the two games Flacco has played this year, Higgins has gone for 62+ receiving yards and 5+ receptions each time. Now, they’re setting his line under that, in a game where the Jets are missing their best outside CB? Vegas is really putting a lot of emphasis on gamescript, because that’s the only thing that makes this seem unlikely.
It’s really going to be a pick-your-poison for the Jets secondary without Sauce. If it were you, what would you do? I would personally double Chase the whole game with a safety over the top and bracket coverage in/out. I don’t ever accuse the Jets of being competent, but if they do what should be done, Higgins should feast.
Game 7: Chicago Bears @ Baltimore Ravens – 1:00 PM EST
Notable CHI Injuries:
- CB Kyler Gordon (Out)
- RB Roschon Johnson (Out)
- OT Braxton Jones (Out)
- TE Cole Kmet (Out)
- CB Tyrique Stevenson (Out)
- RB Deandre Swift (LPs Thurs and Fri, Questionable)
Notable BAL injuries:
- QB Lamar Jackson (Out)
Best Bet: Colston Loveland Over 3.5 Reception (+125) – via Bet365 – 1.00 Units
I initially had Zay Flowers’ long reception as the look here, but with Lamar Out, I just can’t trust it. The other lean I had: Loveland to have a bit of a game.
There really isn’t much analysis to this because Loveland has yet to be the clear #1 TE in the Bears offence. This is all projection. Nonetheless, he’s had two straight weeks of 2+ receptions, and his role is only growing in this offence (even when Kmet was healthy). With the Ravens giving up the 6th most receptions per game to TEs (6.5), and Loveland being the only real receiving threat in the TE room, I have him hitting this over (even if CHI might not have to throw the ball as much in this one while likely leading).
Well, that’s it for this week my friends. Tune back next week for some more analysis if you’re so inclined.