And we’re on to Week 7. What a time it is to be an NFL fan. With almost half the League at 4-2 or better going into this week, we’re seeing levels of parity rarely seen to this point of any season in year’s past. The Chiefs are currently out of the playoffs with a record of 3-3 (though likely not for long if we’ve learned anything over the last decade), and the Ravens seem destined to miss out on the postseason with a puke-inducing record of 1-5. Meanwhile, you have teams like the Indianapolis Colts (5-1) and the New England Patriots (4-2) establishing themselves as contenders early in the season. Who would’ve thought? But as we get further into the season, the picture starts to become clearer, and it’s a certainty that things as they stand now will not be close to how things stand come Week 18.
Last week, we just couldn’t catch a break with our picks due to multiple misses in that gross London game and some very close calls across the early slate. 3-6 isn’t a terrible record, but we’re used to doing much better than that as we begin to have some tangible data to draw from with a larger sample size. Now that we’re ⅓ of the way through everything, I’m expecting some spike weeks, much like last season.
No bullshit here – every betting line is verified and everything is tracked @betstamp if you guys want to follow me there (username: PlusMoneyJ).
2025 Season Record: 16-20 (-5.7 units)
So, without further ado, let’s get to the board.
Game 1: Los Angeles Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars – 9:30 AM EST (International)
Notable LAR Injuries:
- WR Puka Nacua (Out)
- CB Akhello Witherspoon (IR)
- OT Rob Havenstein (Out)
Notable JAX injuries:
- LB Devin Lloyd (Out)
Best Bet: Jordan Whittington Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – via Sports Interaction – 1.15 Units
With All-Pro WR Puka Nacua sitting out this international game due to a foot/ankle injury he suffered last week, we’re going with the unheralded, underappreciated Jordan Whittington to have a bit of a performance. There’s a bit of projection that goes into this one – but I expect Whit to step in and fill the massive void Puka leaves with a standard-setting performance against a leaky Jags pass defence. Let’s get into it.
Let’s start with his QB – Matt Stafford. Not much you can say about this guy that hasn’t already been said. He’s a winner, a leader, and a gunslinger with his no-look dimes that show up on my X feed on a weekly basis. The guy has been absolutely lights out this year when it comes to production: averaging over 280 pass yards per game against vaunted defences like Houston, Philly, and the 49ers (when they still had Fred Warner in the lineup). It’s clear that if the Rams can’t run the ball, Staff will be able to deliver in the pass game.
Well, lucky for us, that’s exactly how this JAX defence has been getting beat thus far. The Jags are allowing the 6th least rush yards to RBs per game to this point (67), and despite Devin Lloyd being Out in this one, I don’t expect that to change much. Meanwhile, this Jags defence is allowing the 3rd most pass yards per game (266.2) to go along with the 4th most receiving yards per game to WRs (165.8). If you want to beat the Jags – you have to throw the ball.
So most would be looking to Davante Adams in this spot, the de facto WR1 in this offence when Puka’s not around. But here’s the thing: the Jags play the 7th most zone coverage in the NFL (79.2% of the time), and when it comes to production against zone coverage, Davante hasn’t been great. He has 27 targets for a mere 12 receptions and 126 receiving yards against zone coverage, compared to Puka’s 38 targets, 33 receptions, and 370 receiving yards against zone. That’s quite the disparity.
But then you look at Whittington’s production against zone coverage, and you’ll be surprised to see that it’s almost the same as Davante’s (8 receptions for 105 receiving yards) on much fewer opportunities (only 9 targets). So while Adams could definitely get his in this game, I would be very surprised if Whittington doesn’t slot right into the Puka role to give this team some production against the numerous zone looks they’ll see. I’m not the only one to make this prediction – but I have the stats to back it up:
It’s not like Whit hasn’t shown out before either. In Weeks 4 and 5 last year with Puka out, he had over 62 receiving yards in each contest. Even with Jimmy G subbing in Week 18 last year (and Puka sitting to rest for the Playoffs), Whit had 86 receiving yards. With Puka playing full games this year through Week 5, Whit put up 42 receiving yards and 33 receiving yards in two contests. While it’s possible Tutu Atwell might get into this one and provide some production, it’s clear from Whittington outsnapping Atwell in 5/6 games this year that he should have more opportunities come Sunday.
While this may be a bit of an ugly game (like last week in London), the signs are all there for Whittington to come through in this spot.
Game 2: New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears – 1:00 PM EST
Notable NO Injuries:
- S Julian Blackmon (IR)
- CB Isaac Yiadom (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
Notable CHI injuries:
- CB Jaylon Johnson (IR)
- RB Deandre Swift (Questionable, LP Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
- DT Grady Jarrett (Questionable, LP Fri, true question to play)
- LB Noah Sewell (Out)
Best Bet: Spencer Rattler Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – via 3ET – 1.15 Units
Here we go again folks – back to the Rattler rushing yards after hitting his over a few weeks back. While Rattler might not be the most flashy of QBs in the League (far from it actually), he’s been a solid producer this year, including on the ground with some surprising athleticism.
That’s right – Rattler has been a solid contributor on scrambles this year, with 3 straight games of 20+ rush yards and an average of 23.9 rush yards per game. In fact, he’s 11th in QB rush yards this year (143), ahead of guys like Drake Maye, Bo Nix, and Caleb Williams. Not too shabby.
Nonetheless, some credit has to be given to his Offensive Playcaller, HC Kellen Moore. Kellen has always been known to run a fast offence, which has stayed true with NO’s offence this year as they lead the NFL in seconds-taken-per-play on offence and are 7th in offensive-plays-per-game. This gives Rattler more chances at getting production – and has led to this NO offence actually seeming competent when everyone thought they’d be a dumpster fire to begin the year.
And while this Bears defence has been decent this year – it’s fair to say that they will let QBs pick up yardage on the ground. They allowed 25 rush yards to JJ McCarthy, 31 rush yards to Geno Smith, and 52 rush yards to Jayden Daniels last week. The only two QBs they haven’t given up 25+ rush yards to? Jared Goff (16 rush yards in 6 games) and Dak Prescott (49 rush yards in 6 games). Rattler is a lot closer to the first 3 QBs listed than those last 2, and it helps a lot that the Bears defensive scheme is conducive to QB rushing.
We all know what makes for a good QB scramble: lots of man coverage. Well, the Bears defence plays the 4th most man coverage in the League (37.1%). All of that to say – Rattler should get his on the ground in this one, moving the sticks so that this NO team can compete on the road.
Lock it in.
Game 3: Carolina Panthers @ New York Jets – 1:00 PM EST
Notable CAR Injuries:
- OT Taylor Moten (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- OG Damien Lewis (Questionable, DNP Thurs and Fri, unlikely to play)
- OG Robert Hunt (IR)
- C Austin Corbett (Back from IR, should play)
- EDGE Patrick Jones (IR, Out)
- WR Jalen Coker (Back from IR, should play)
- DT Tershawn Warton (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
Notable NYJ injuries:
- WR Garrett Wilson (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- CB Michael Carter (Questionable, FP all week, likely to play)
- CB Qwan’tez Stiggers (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
Best Bet: Mason Taylor Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-114) – via NorthStar – 1.14 Units
Good Lord, I am not excited to watch this Jets offence try to play football this week against a Carolina Panthers team that has surprisingly made it to .500 through 6 weeks. Things were bad with Garrett Wilson in the lineup – with him Out for this one, my eyes are likely to bleed with how inept this Jets passing game will look.
But, on the other hand, this is a big opportunity for Rookie TE Mason Taylor to show what he has, as he should be the new #1 target in this passing offence if past performance is any indication of things. Let’s get into it.
It’s quite clear that Jets QB Justin Fields isn’t going to give you much when it comes to pass production. But it’s really been a story of Jekyll and Hyde when looking at his production this season. Three games with over 215 pass yards? Not too bad for Fields. Two games with under 50 pass yards? That’s just terrible. It’s very hard to know what you’re going to get from this guy, but the opportunity is there for him this week against the Panthers over the middle of the field.
The Panthers are only giving up about 220 pass yards per game to opposing QBs, but when it comes to covering opposing TEs, they’re one of the worst in the League. They’re giving up the 9th most receptions per game to TEs (6.2) and the 2nd most receiving yards per game to TEs (74) thus far. They have faced some good competition at TE (78 receiving yards given up to both Darren Waller and Trey McBride), but they’ve also faced some mid-level competition (over 60 receiving yards allowed to NE and JAX TEs) and haven’t really held up.
Now – they have a Jets offence that really only features one receiving TE (Taylor’s 26 targets make up 76% of the TE opportunities on this team), so we don’t have to worry about other TEs siphoning off work from Taylor. And while Taylor had an absolute stinker last week in London, in his previous two games, he had 7+ targets and 65+ receiving yards each time.
Who is Fields really gonna trust when it comes to passing the ball in this one? Josh Reynolds? Arian Smith? Allen Lazard? No – it’s gonna be the Taylor and Hall show. With the Panthers (surprisingly) among the better teams in the League when it comes to rush yards allowed (9th fewest at 567 over 6 games), there’s going to be more than a few opportunities for Taylor in this one. Expect him to smash this line.
Game 4: Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns – 1:00 PM EST
Notable MIA Injuries:
- S Elijah Campbell (Out)
- CB Storm Duck (Questionable, FP all week, likely to play)
Notable CLE injuries:
- OT Jack Conklin (Questionable, LP Fri, true question to play)
- DT Mason Graham (Questionable, weird DNP Fri, true question to play)
- TE David Njoku (Out)
- DE Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
Best Bet: Quinshon Judkins Over 91.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – via Betway – 1.15 Units
Some of these props are tough to figure out. Looking at a bunch of different variables, considering gamescript, thinking about injuries, etc. This one – is not. Quinshon Judkins has been everything for this CLE offence since getting his first start in Week 3. Three straight games of 80+ rush yards against some tough defences like GB, DET, and MIN is something special for a team that doesn’t have anything special going for them on offence.
Then – last week happened. Judkins had his lowest rush attempts and rush yard total since he became the starter, as the Browns completely threw their offensive identity out the window and let Rookie QB Dillon Gabriel chuck the rock 50+ times against the Steelers defence. With how that game ended up (23-9 loss), I’m pretty damn sure Offensive Playcaller & HC Kevin Stefanski isn’t going to make the same mistake twice.
So – the Browns enter this week against the Dolphins with that in mind. And how do you have offensive success against this MIA team? You run the damn ball.
The Dolphins are currently allowing the most rush yards per game to RBs (134.3), allowing almost 10 yards per game more than the 2nd worst defence in this category. You name the RB room they’ve faced this year, and it’s almost a certainty that the RB1 from that offence had an absolute field day. It was LAC 3rd string RB Kimani Vidal with 124 rush yards last week (with a severely depleted OLine), backup CAR RB Rico Dowdle with over 200 rush yards the week before, and BUF RB James Cook with 108 rush yards in Week 3. Yikes.
I couldn’t care less how high this line is set for Judkins. With his pure ability as a runner, coupled with the clear shortcomings of Gabriel in the passing game, Judkins should get absolutely fed in this matchup (where it would be a surprise if he doesn’t average over 5 yards per carry).
In addition to all that, the weather for this game is supposed to be atrocious, with winds gusting up to 45-50 MPH and sustained winds around 20 MPH (with some rain to boot). All of that considered – I’m expecting a legacy game from Judkins in a smash spot here.
Game 5: New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans – 1:00 PM EST
Notable NE Injuries:
- WR Stefon Diggs (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
- S Jaylinn Hawkins (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
- LB Harold Landry (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
Notable TEN injuries:
- DE Dremont Jones (Questionable, DNP Thurs and Fri, unlikely to play)
- LB Arden Key (Out)
- WR Calvin Ridley (Out)
- DT T’Vondre Sweat (Back from IR, LP all week, should play)
Best Bet: Kayshon Boutte Over 17.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) – via NorthStar – 1.15 Units
Well, it’s a new era in TEN after they fired HC Brian Callahan earlier in the week. I usually like to back players on a team with a new coach, as they usually get a bump after being free of the suffering they experienced under the previous coach. However, it’s really tough to do that here with a Titans offence that hasn’t shown me much through this year. They have potential, but with Ridley Out, and a NE defence that has played really well to this point, we have to go to the other side of the ball with this pick.
So, why not target a guy that was absolutely on fire last week in Kayshon Boutte. Boutte started off the season with a banger, getting 8 targets and converting 6 receptions for over 100 receiving yards. Then – he went quiet. 4 straight games under 50 receiving yards, with a grand total of 10 targets over that four week span. That was until last week, where he again got things going to the tune of 5 catches, 93 yards, and 2 TDs.
So – what Boutte are we getting in this matchup? Well, even if it’s not the version that has 90+ receiving yards, you can bet your ass that he’ll still convert down the field. Despite low yardage totals in 4/6 games this year, here are his long reception totals over the last six weeks: 24, 16, 20, 18, 19, 29. It doesn’t matter if he doesn’t get much volume – he converts on a weekly basis downfield.
And while this Titans defence isn’t giving up gaudy receiving yard totals to opposing WRs (under 140 receiving yards allowed to the last 3 WR rooms they’ve faced), they’re always liable to give up the long ball. Last week, it was LV WR Tre Tucker with a 37 yard reception. The week before? ARI WR Mazerati Marv hit them with a 43 yard reception. The week before that? HOU WR Nico Collins pops off a 37 yarder. The receivers that get downfield on this Titans defence are constantly converting big gains – something Boutte has shown himself capable of.
It’s not like NE will have to throw the ball a lot in this one (should be leading most the game), but with a struggling rushing attack, and Stefon Diggs limited in practices throughout the week due to a chest injury, I can see Drake Maye (2nd highest PFF graded deep passer) hitting him on at least one in this matchup. Hit it.
Game 6: Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings – 1:00 PM EST
Notable PHI Injuries:
- DT Jalen Carter (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri, true question to play)
- OG Landon Dickerson (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
Notable MIN injuries:
- QB JJ McCarthy (Questionable, LPs all week, unlikely to play)
- OT Brian Oneill (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- LB Andrew Van Ginkel (Out)
Best Bet: Justin Jefferson Over 27.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) – via Betway – 1.10 Units
Sometimes, you have to take a high line with a stud WR in a good matchup. And this one checks all the boxes with J Jetta coming off a bye and still rocking with QB Carson Wentz at QB. Let’s get into it.
Justin Jefferson – what else can you say about this All-World WR? The guy is a menace, putting up 75+ receiving yards in each of his last 4 games with 35 targets over that span. What might be even more impressive is his ability to get downfield, as he’s had long reception totals of 38, 29, 36, and 50 over that same time period. With Wentz still looking like a gunslinger out there, JJ is converting at a high rate.
And this scary Eagles secondary … ain’t so scary anymore. They’re giving up the 9th most receiving yards per game to WRs this year (152), but what might be even more glaring is the constant long completions they’ve given up (especially to WR1s). Last week, it was NYG WRs Wan’dale Robinson and Lil’Jordan Humphrey (who?) both coming down with 33+ yard receptions. The week before against DEN, it was Courtland Sutton with a 34 yarder. The week before that? TB WR Egbuka brings down a 77 yarder. Even prior to that week, LAR Davante Adams had a 44 yard long reception. Quinyon Mitchell who?
I have a feeling that PHI’s run defence won’t be as bad as they were last week against the NYG, as DT Jalen Carter will be back in the lineup and this defence will be looking to prove they can’t get beat in the trenches. With the only other option being attacking with the WRs (PHI doesn’t give up production to TEs, and Wentz isn’t running the ball), I’d expect J Jetta to get ample targets on his way to a few long catches.
Game 7: Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs – 1:00 PM EST
Notable LV Injuries:
- TE Brock Bowers (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- WR Jakobi Meyers (Questionable, LP Fri, true question to play)
Notable KC injuries:
- OT Josh Simmons (Out)
Best Bet: Rashee Rice Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – via Sports Interaction – 1.15 Units
Well – it’s a rough week to be a Chiefs hater. Fresh off a pretty dominant win over the NFC-leading Lions, the Chiefs are set to host one of the worst teams in the League in Las Vegas. Oh yeah – and they have one of the better WRs in the NFL, Rashee Rice, returning after serving his 6 game suspension. That’s just unfair.
There aren’t a whole lot of stats to back up Rashee’s yardage projection here, as the last full game he played was in Week 3 of last year. That being said, he did have 288 receiving yards on 24 receptions through three games last year, racking up 75+ receiving yards in each game. It’s clear this KC passing offence is centered around Rice when he’s on the field, and even if recent reports may be considered “puff pieces” indicating that he’ll have a heavy workload, it can’t all be smoke and mirrors with that usage in mind.
It’s possible that he doesn’t get his full allotment of snaps in his first week back, but even then, he can produce enough to hit this line against a very poor LV secondary. The Raiders defence is currently giving up the 4th most receptions (13.5) and the 6th most receiving yards (161.8) per game to opposing WRs. You know things are bad when the CB who has played the most snaps for you (LV CB Kyu Blu Kelly) has allowed the most receiving yards of any CB in the League to this point of the season (396 receiving yards allowed).
And it’s not like the LV defence is really deficient in any other area. They’re only allowing 75 rush yards per game to RBs, less than 25 yards through the air to RBs, and are limiting opposing TEs to a mere 45 receiving yards per game thus far. Teams know how to attack Vegas – and Rice should be the main benefactor in this one with Mahomes playing at an MVP-level.
Take Rice’s receiving line this Sunday – as it’s bound to go up once everyone’s seen what he can do in this KC offence.
Well, that’s it for this week my friends. Tune back next week for some more analysis if you’re so inclined.