Back to business folks. We’re about ⅓ of the way through the NFL season coming into Week 6, and the world’s greatest reality TV show hasn’t been disappointing. Week 5 saw some huge upsets, including the Saints climbing out of an 0-4 grave to hand the Giants an L, the Cardinals beating themselves on the way to the Titans putting their first W on the board, and the Rams losing a heartbreaker to the 49ers last Thursday Night (which I got to actually experience in person, hurting me deeply as the Rams fan that I am). This was followed up by an astonishing performance by the Giants this Thursday night, taking out the evil empire that is Philadelphia.
Last week, we took a break while being away on vacation, but we had another 9 player prop overs on the board for Week 4 – and came away with a better performance (6-3, only 1 TreVeyon Henderson receiving yard away from 7-2). We’re back on track to our winning ways of last season, and I can’t wait to get things going for this week.
No bullshit here – every betting line is verified and everything is tracked @betstamp if you guys want to follow me there (username: PlusMoneyJ).
2025 Season Record: 13-14 (-2.0 units)
So, without further ado, let’s get to the board.
Game 1: Denver Broncos @ New York Jets – 9:30 AM EST (International)
Notable DEN Injuries:
- OG Ben Powers (Out)
- LB Jonah Ellis (Out)
Notable NYJ injuries:
- CB Michael Carter (Out)
- WR Allen Lazard (Out)
- LB Quincy Williams (Out, still on IR)
- CB Brandon Stephens (Questionable, weird LP Fri after practicing all week)
Best Bet: JK Dobbins Over 67.5 Rushing Yards (-114) – via NorthStar – 1.14 Units
Best Bet: Courtland Sutton Over 22.5 Yards Longest Reception (-120) – via Sports Interaction – 1.20 Units
That’s right – we’re starting with some double-bubble action in the third international game this season. But don’t get it twisted – we’re staying far away from a Jets offence that hasn’t shown me much outside of garbage time production by Fields and Co. Nah, it’s full steam ahead with a few studs from the Denver offence that are set for some big days against a leaky Jets defence.
The guy we’re starting with is JK Dobbins, who along with Javonte Williams, has seemingly turned back the clock following recovery from severe injuries. I, along with most people, thought that JK would be slowly fading from relevance at this point of the season with RJ Harvey starting his takeover of this Denver backfield. So, what did we overlook? Well, JK still has the juice, and looks even better than he did in his resurgent year last season with the Chargers.
It’s been 5 games for the Broncos so far, and JK has 76+ rushing yards in 4 of those games (4 straight games actually). He hit this number against defences like the Chargers and Colts (both allowing right around 80 rush yards per game to RBs, top half of the League). And he’s getting some great volume to go along with this stellar production, managing 14+ rush attempts in 4/5 contests thus far. Meanwhile, while secondary RB RJ Harvey looked to be getting closer to a 50-50 split in Week 4 (41% of the snaps), he once again played third fiddle in this RB room last week (Badie had 26% of snaps, Harvey with 20%).
While I expect Harvey’s usage to jump back up in this game due to a good gamescript and a likely shalacking, that type of situation still means adequate touches for the RB1 in this backfield. And this NYJ run defence – man it’s rough. They’re allowing the 7th most rush yards per game to RBs on the season (109 rush yards per game), and that includes 132 rush yards to James Cook, 99 rush yards to De’Von Achane, and 135 rush yards to the aforementioned Javonte Williams last week. Talk about RB1’s eating.
And the key here: LB Quincy Williams is still missing in this Jets defensive front seven, and his All-Pro brother DT Quinnen Williams was also banged up through the week (though is playing in this one).
All of this lines up for one thing: a good day on the ground for DEN’s RB1 in a projected international blowout.
BUT – we don’t stop there. With this gamescript projecting to be run-heavy for DEN, it might be hard for DEN pass-catchers to sustain production throughout the game. However, seeing that the Jets are giving up the most receiving yards per reception to WRs through the first five weeks (15.78), it’s easy to see that DEN WRs and Bo Nix will get a few long completions going in this one.
The numbers are really quite staggering. Last week, 2 DAL WRs had 43+ yard long receptions against this Jets defence. In Week 4, it was 2 MIA WRs with 25+ yard long receptions. Even going back to Week 3, it was 2 TB WRs going for 24+ yard long receptions. The Jets D doesn’t discriminate – they give these explosive plays up to WRs of all shapes and sizes.
So why not take the chance on a 6’4”, 216 lbs WR in Courtland Sutton, who has his own exceptional long reception stats through this season. Aside from the Week 2 game vs IND where Sutton was held to 1 reception and 6 receiving yards, he’s had long receptions of 22, 52, 22, and 34 yards. While the line is slightly above that 22 yard mark he’s recorded twice, those were against the Titans (12.78 receiving yards allowed per reception) and the Bengals (12.38 receiving yards allowed per reception). With the Jets giving up a full 3 yards more per reception to WRs than those two teams – where do you think Sutton is going to land on his deepest reception of the day?
I’m guessing over this number – so let’s hit it friends.
Game 2: Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins – 1:00 PM EST
Notable LAC Injuries:
- OT Joe Alt (Out)
- LB Bud Dupree (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
- DT Da’Shawn Hand (Out)
- WR Quentin Johnston (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- LB Denzel Perryman (Questionable, could come back from IR)
- OT Trey Pipkins (Out)
- OG Jamaree Salyer (Questionable, DNPs Thurs and Fri, unlikely to play)
Notable MIA injuries:
- C Aaron Brewer (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- S Elijah Campbell (Out)
- LB Tyrel Dotson (Out)
- CB Storm Duck (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
Best Bet: Justin Herbert Over 20.5 Rushing Yards (-105) – via Betway – 1.05 Units
I’ve seen a lot of people calling this “the stoppable force vs the movable object” game when it comes to this LAC offensive line and the MIA passrush – and they are completely correct. The Charger’s OLine without their two stud OTs Alt and Slater has been anything but impressive, and now they have backup OT Trey Pipkins to add to that list. Herbert with 16 sacks taken through 5 weeks is gross, and the Chargers possessing the 6th worst PFF graded pass blocking unit on the season makes it seem as though it will be a tough day at the office for Herby in this one.
But then – you look at the MIA pas-rush. This should honestly be a good unit, with three above-average passrushers on the roster in Jaelan Phillips, Bradley Chubb, and Chop Robinson screaming off edge. Yet here we are, with the Dolphins having the 2nd worst PFF graded pass rush unit on the season and placing 21st in QB pressures with 33. Not great – but I still think they have the edge against this banged up Chargers OLine.
There’s one other point too: the MIA defence plays the 11th highest man coverage rate in the NFL to this point of the season. So when the pass-rush is projected to get some pressure, and the DBs are in man coverage, how do you think opposing offences produce yardage? It’s QB scrambles, and the numbers for the Dolphins defence show they’re susceptible.
The Dolphins have given up the 4th most rush yards per game to QBs thus far (32.8), and this includes Daniel Jones rushing for 26 yards, Drake Maye rushing for 31 yards, Josh Allen rushing for 25 yards, and Justin Fields rushing for 81 (!!!) yards. That’s pretty solid production on the ground from opposing QBs.
And it’s not like Herbert hasn’t found his legs when it comes to scrambling this year. With all the pressure he faced last week against WAS, he put up 60 rush yards on 4 attempts. In 4 of 5 games this year, he’s had 24+ rush yards. And now they’re giving us this line, in this spot? I don’t get it, but I’m all over it this week.
With Chargers stud RB Hampton on the IR, and Haskins+Vidal unlikely to get anything going on the ground despite this bad MIA rush defence, we’re likely going to see the ball in Herbert’s hands quite a bit. With that being the case, expect him to take off a few times on his way to easily hitting this line.
Game 3: Seattle Seahawks @ Jacksonville Jaguars – 1:00 PM EST
Notable SEA Injuries:
- LB Derick Hall (Out)
- S Julian Love (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- CB Devon Witherspoon (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- CB Riq Woolen (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
Notable JAX injuries:
- C Robert Hainsey (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
Best Bet: Travis Etienne Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-105) – via Betway – 1.05 Units
I’ll be straight up with you guys – this one takes a little bit of projection on the Etienne side of things, as he hasn’t been much of a passcatcher this season. Only 2 of 5 games with 13+ receiving yards and 9 total receptions on the year? Tough bet to back. That being said – some changes are afoot due to injuries (specifically in areas where Etienne should be targeted with TE Brenton Strange Out), and we know the history of both Etienne as a passcatcher and HC Liam Coen as an offensive playcaller.
In 2023, Etienne had 15 of 18 games with 17+ receiving yards, easily clearing this line a majority of the time. Even last year while dealing with some nagging injuries, he had 5 straight games to end the season with 15+ receiving yards. We know he has the juice to get some receptions out of the backfield translating to good yardage, even if the stats might not reflect that this year.
And Liam Coen last year with the Bucs? His duo of RBs (Rachaad White and Bucky) combined for over 800 receiving yards on the season, with both producing over 395 receiving yards to make for an almost even split (both averaging 22+ receiving yards per game). While we haven’t seen much receiving out of JAX backs so far this year, it’s clear that this is a part of Coen’s offence.
And now – they’re going up against the Seahawks, who have allowed the 2nd most receiving yards per game to RBs thus far (58.4). Giving up 30 receiving yards to Rachaad White last week isn’t bad, but giving up 86 receiving yards to Jaylen Warren in Week 2 isn’t great. On top of that, RBs are bound to have their opportunities in the pass game, as SEA has allowed 4 of 5 RB rooms to have 7+ receptions in a game. Opportunity + production usually equals success, and that’s what I’m seeing for Etienne in this one.
There’s also a few other factors that go into play here, including the severely banged up SEA defence at LB, S, and CB, as well as their propensity to play a lot of zone coverage this year (8th highest zone coverage rate in the NFL at almost 80%). With limited personnel to defend a good RB like Etienne, and a high zone coverage rate that prevents explosive plays while allowing easy underneath passes to the RBs, how do you think this will go?
And then, there’s the additional consideration that this JAX OLine has been severely banged up through this week (4 projected starters with at least two LPs on the week, and starting C Hainsey out). The JAX OLine has been good in the pass-blocking department with their starters healthy (2nd in PFF pass block grading), but if the pressure gets home for this good SEA pass-rush (T-4th most pressures in the League at 48), I’d expect Lawrence to look for more dump-offs.
All-in-all, this looks like a good projection, where Etienne will have several pass-catching opportunities and might even get this yardage on one catch. Lock it in.
Game 4: Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers – 1:00 PM EST
Notable CLE Injuries:
- DT Mike Hall (Out)
Notable PIT injuries:
- WR Calvin Austin (Out)
- CB Jalen Ramsey (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
Best Bet: Quinshon Judkins Over 9.5 Receiving Yards (+105) – via Bet105 – 1 Unit
This game is a bit of an offensive mess, so I wouldn’t blame you for skipping this one altogether if that’s what you prefer. But for the true sickos out there, we’re going with the only playable line I could find in this game. There’s got to be some offensive production coming from somewhere, right?
Passing yardage props for either team are off the board in this one, despite PIT being pretty leaky in the pass game. CLE QB Dillon Gabriel looked like he couldn’t complete an outside pass last week against a MIN defence that brings the pressure (much like PIT’s D does), and Aaron Rodgers will have trouble against a Browns defence only allowing 185 pass yards per game thus far (4th best in the NFL). This extends to each team’s pass-catchers, where the only probable look was DK long reception (impossible with how limited the PIT deep pass game has been) and the CLE TEs (tough to trust either one with how they split targets, and PIT is only allowing 58 receiving yards per game to TEs).
The rushing yardage props are off the table as well, as CLE has limited opposing RBs to the lowest rush yards per game and the 4th lowest receiving yards per game, and PIT just held Patriots and Vikings RBs to under 3.5 yards per carry on 40 attempts the last two weeks. So where do we find the edge? Receiving work for CLE RBs, as the PIT defence has been lit up for 57+ receiving yards over the last two weeks by RBs (and are 8th worst season-long when it comes to receiving yards allowed per game to RBs).
While the CLE RBs have mostly split receiving work as of late (between Judkins, Ford, and Sampson), Judkins is the easiest one to trust due to him having 18+ receiving yards in each of the last two weeks and over 85% of RB touches during that same span. With this line being so low, we likely just need one checkdown to hit, which should be made possible due to a below average pass blocking OLine in CLE (6th worst in PFF grading) and an elite passrush unit in PIT (T-4th most pressures in the League at 48).
This will be a gross game from an offensive standpoint, where any positive plays/players will be rewarded with more work. My guess is – that comes with RB receptions on the CLE side of things. Back this stud Rookie RB and watch it come in early.
Game 5: Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens – 1:00 PM EST
Notable LAR Injuries:
- WR Tutu Atwell (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
- OT Rob Havenstein (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
- TE Colby Parkinson (Questionable, true question to play)
- LB Omar Speights (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
Notable BAL injuries:
- QB Lamar Jackson (Out)
- CB Chidobie Awuzie (Out)
- WR Zay Flowers (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- LB Roquan Smith (Out)
Best Bet: Zay Flowers Over 50.5 Receiving Yards (-116) – via Bet105 – 1.16 Units
This one is tough, as I really wanted to take a Rams offensive player with how terrible this Ravens defence has been to this point of the season. The issue is – the sportsbooks have the same idea, serving juiced up lines for Stafford and Rams pass-catchers (in a projected gamescript where the Rams should run the ball a lot), with a backfield that’s hard to trust when it comes to projected touch volume (due to fumbling issues by Kyren Williams). The Rams SHOULD beatdown the Ravens in this one, but in the NFL, anything is possible.
That being said, I do see the Rams leading for most of the game, and with that projected gamescript in mind, we go to the Ravens WR1 despite the fact that he’s been a bit limited in practice this week with a shoulder injury (and despite the fact that he’s catching the ball from backup QB Cooper Rush for the 2nd straight week). This really just comes down to a few things.
Aside from the opportunity being there for Flowers in this game, it’s obvious that the Rams can be beat through the air. They’ve had a problem at CB for the past few years, and it’s starting to rear its ugly head again this year. They’ve allowed the 9th most receiving yards per game to opposing WRs (159.6), which includes 190 yards to 49ers WRs last week (142 to WR1 Bourne), 172 yards to Colts WRs in Week 4, and 184 yards to PHI WRs in Week 3 (109 to WR1 AJ Brown). That makes some sense when considering how much the Rams offence has scored, forcing opponents to play catch-up a lot of the time, coupled with their issues at CB.
And Flowers has actually been a pretty consistent producer in the pass game this year. He’s had 72+ receiving yards in 4 of 5 games thus far, which includes a 72 yard performance last week against the vaunted HOU secondary with Cooper Rush throwing him the ball. That’s some clean work. It’s important to note that there are some weather concerns with this game (gusting winds), but that’s baked into the line, and Zay has the 2nd most yards after catch in the NFL (min 30 targets), meaning he can take short targets and still gain some good yardage.
At the end of the day, with this line being so low when compared to his previous production this year, in a projected great gamescript for passing opportunities, against a bad CB room – I have to lean this way come Sunday.
Game 6: Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers – 1:00 PM EST
Notable DAL Injuries:
- CB Daron Bland (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- OG Tyler Booker (Out)
- CB Trevon Diggs (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- DE Marshawn Kneeland (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- WR Ceedee Lamb (Out)
- LB Jake Sanborn (Out)
- RB Miles Sanders (Out)
- WR Kavontae Turpin (Out)
- OG Tyler Smith (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
Notable CAR injuries:
- RB Chuba Hubbard (Out)
- OT Taylor Moton (Out)
- DT Tershawn Wharton (Out)
- TE Ja’Tavion Sanders (Questionable, FP Thurs but LP Fri, true question to play)
Best Bet: Rico Dowdle Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-115) – via 3ET – 1.15 Units
Another RB receiving total coming in this matchup – all at the expense of a leaky Cowboys defence. Let’s get into it.
Man, did Rico Dowdle absolutely have a game last week vs MIA as the replacement bellcow back of this offence. 23 rush attempts for over 200 rushing yards, coupled with a cool 3 receptions for 28 receiving yards through the air. We all knew this guy had some juice with his second-half of the season last year on the Cowboys, but this was something else entirely when it came to his rushing production. And now – it’s his backfield for another week with Chuba missing this one.
But it’s not like he hasn’t shown this ability as a receiving back before. There was a stretch of 6 straight games last year where he had 15+ receiving yards in each outing, with season highs of 32, 30, 29, 28, 27, and 24 receiving yards throughout the year. Given the right matchup, he can put in work through the air.
And my oh my, this is a good matchup. The Cowboys defence is currently giving up the most receiving yards per game to RBs this season (59.8). This includes 71 receiving yards to Jets RBs last week, 109 receiving yards to Packers RBs in Week 4, 49 receiving yards to Bears RBs in Week 3, and 46 receiving yards to Giants RBs in Week 2. It’s been a consistent problem for this defence, and I don’t see that changing with their injury situation on defence.
This is another game with weather concerns (worse wind than the Rams/Ravens game), making it even more likely that Bryce Young looks to the short areas of the field when passing – right where Dowdle should be posted up. Let’s go.
Game 7: New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints – 1:00 PM EST
Notable NE Injuries:
- RB Antonio Gibson (Out)
- CB Christian Gonzalez (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
- EDGE Keion White (Out)
- LB Anfernee Jennings (Out)
- S Marte Mapu (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
- S Jaylinn Hawkins (Out)
Notable NO injuries:
- RB Alvin Kamara (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- CB Isaac Yiadom (Out)
Best Bet: Tre’Veyon Henderson Over 51.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-117) – via NorthStar – 1.17 Units
Well – I’m going back to the well again. After taking Henderson’s receiving line in Week 4 and missing it by a half yard, I gotta go back to the heralded rookie out of OSU. A lot of fantasy football managers have a sour taste in their mouth after using a high pick to select the RB3 (at times) on the Patriots, but there has to be some change to his workload given that Antonio Gibson tore his ACL last week.
It’s not like Gibson was really logging all that much work in the NE backfield, but it was enough for the Henderson truthers to be frustrated. Gibson averaged about 6 touches per game and 15-20% of snaps, limiting Henderson to about 10 touches per game and 35% of the snaps. With Gibson out, I would expect Henderson to hit around 12-14 touches per game with 45-50% of the snaps, sharing the backfield almost equally with Rhamondre Stevenson. That should provide a path for more opportunities to pop-off the big plays Hendo is known for.
But, you’d think with this line that Gibson is still in the lineup. In the 5 games Hendo played with Gibson + Rhamondre, he had 40+ scrimmage yards 4 times. Now, he just needs 10 more yards to hit the line, with increased opportunity, against a NO defence who consistently gives up production to RBs?
To that point – NO still has trouble limiting opposing RBs (as they did much of last year). In all 5 of their games this season, they haven’t held an opposing RB room to less than 110 scrimmage yards. And while NE HC Mike Vrabel has held steadfast in his support of Rhamondre Stevenson despite his costly fumbles (10 fumbles in his last 20 games), this is still a concern that could be an additional variable in support of Henderson gaining more opportunities.
So basically, Henderson should get half the snaps and opportunities, against a defence giving up 110+ scrimmage yards to RBs, with more explosiveness than any other guy on the Patriots offence? Sign me up for this one, as the case for Henderson as a viable starting RB in the NFL loses a lot of steam if he doesn’t perform in such a great spot.
Game 8: Arizona Cardinals @ Indianapolis Colts – 1:00 PM EST
Notable ARI Injuries:
- CB Max Melton (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- QB Kyler Murray (Questionable, LP Fri, true question to play)
- WR Zay Jones (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- DE Darius Robinson (Out)
- LB Cody Simon (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- LB Mack Wilson (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
Notable IND injuries:
- RB Tyler Goodson (Out)
- CB Kenny Moore (Out)
Best Bet: Tyler Warren Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – via Bet365 – 1.10 Units
That’s right – we’re going with the stud Rookie TE Tyler Warren in what looks to be a pretty good matchup for some big production. Let’s get into it.
It was quite clear right from Week 1 that the Colts got their guy when they drafted Tyler Warren in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. For a Rookie TE, his usage has been absolutely stellar thus far, with 3 games of 70+ receiving yards and an average of 61.4 receiving yards per game through 5 weeks. He’s been consistent (never under 38 receiving yards or 5 targets in a game), and he’s always liable to break off a long one (long receptions of 17, 19, 21, 24, and 41 on the year).
It’s possible that Kyler Murray isn’t good to go in this one, but I still expect the Cardinals to put up some kind of fight against a Colts defence that has been good, but not great. This should keep the Colts throwing the ball in this one, as should their offensive playcalling despite the gamescript if the past 5 games are any indication of things going forward (leading in mostly every game, and Daniel Jones is still averaging 258 pass yards per game with zero games under 210 pass yards). But the biggest reason to target this one: the Cardinals D has real issues limiting TE production.
Currently, the Cardinals have allowed the 5th most receiving yards per game to opposing TEs (67.6). In fact, in 4 of the 5 games they’ve played, they’ve allowed opposing TE groups to go for 76+ receiving yards, which includes the likes of the Titans TEs, the Panthers TEs, the Saints TEs, and the Seahawks TEs. I can say with confidence that Tyler Warren is the best TE out of any of the teams listed there. Further, even though I’m a big Mo Alie-Cox guy, he isn’t siphoning any significant touches away from Warren (2 total receptions on the year).
So – with ARI practically a lock to give up 75+ receiving to TEs, and Warren being the only real TE receiving threat facing them, along with multiple ARI LBs out for this one, what do you think is going to happen? I’m guessing he smashes this line, so let’s get it.
Well, that’s it for this week my friends. Tune back next week for some more analysis if you’re so inclined.