The NFL Season rolls on as we get to Week 4 of the schedule, almost a quarter of the way through the year. Last week was a pretty fun one, where defensive touchdowns and missed/blocked field goals ruled the day, with quite a few close games that came down to the wire. There’s no doubt we’re in for another good one this week, with a full day of football starting in Ireland and concluding with a Monday night double-header.
We had another 9 player prop overs on the board last week – and came away with a mixed bag (4-5). It was still a very fun time watching our key player matchups during the early slate – and I’m excited to start putting some winning weeks on the board as we get more data through the season.
No bullshit here – every betting line is verified and everything is tracked @betstamp if you guys want to follow me there (username: PlusMoneyJ).
2025 Season Record: 7-11 (-4.5 units)
So, without further ado, let’s get to the board.
Game 1: Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers – 9:30 AM EST (Ireland)
Notable MIN Injuries:
- QB JJ McCarthy (Out)
- OG Donovan Jackson (Out)
- LB Andrew Van Ginkel (Out)
Notable PIT injuries:
- EDGE Alex Highsmith (Out)
- CB Joey Porter (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- TE Jonnu Smith (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
- RB Jaylen Warren (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
Best Bet: TJ Hockenson Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – Betway – 1.10 Units
We’re going to the Tight End Well early with this one, as I expect Hockenson to have a decent game in Dublin against a leaky PIT coverage unit.
What was once a scary defence in PIT hasn’t been able to do much when it comes to covering TEs. They’re in the bottom 10 of the NFL when it comes to receiving yards, receptions, and yards per reception given up to TEs, and it’s not like they’ve played world-beaters at the TE position over the first 3 weeks of the season.
The first week was against a weak TE room in the NYJ (36 receiving yards given up), the second week was against a mediocre TE room in SEA (57 receiving yards given up), and the third week was against an average TE room in NE (118(!!!!) receiving yards given up). Not great coverage in the middle of the field, and it’s clear that if Hunter Henry can put up 90 yards receiving on you, Hockenson is primed to exceed this yardage line.
And while Hockenson got off to a slow start with JJ at QB over the first two weeks, he showed he still has it last week with Carson Wentz at the helm. 6 targets, 5 receptions, 49 yards, and a much needed TD to get his confidence up (all in a game where the Vikings had a negative gamescript when it came to passing the ball). And that was against a CIN defence that’s giving up 10 receiving yards per game less to TEs than the Steelers.
While I expect the Vikings to be ahead most of this game, I’m fearful that their run game won’t be as effective with stud rookie OG Jackson out and the Steelers D looking a lot better against the run vs NE last week. Lock in Hockenson.
Game 2: Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons – 1:00 PM EST
Notable WAS Injuries:
- QB Jayden Daniels (Out)
- WR Terry McLaurin (Out)
- WR Noah Brown (Out)
- RB Bill Croskey-Merritt (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
Notable ATL injuries:
- CB AJ Terrell (Out)
Best Bet: Marcus Mariota Over 31.5 Rushing Yards (-120) – Bet99 – 1.20 Units
Yes – this line might look a little high. But let’s provide some context here:
- Mariota has 3 games in the last two years for the Commanders where he played significant snaps. In those games, he had 34 rush yards, 56 rush yards, and 40 rush yards (last week).
- It’s clear the WAS offence can operate the same way they did with Daniels when Mariota has to fill in. There were a ton of read option looks last week (leading to 6 rush attempts for Mariota), and there’s always the possibility of a few scrambles with WAS WR1 McLaurin Out and not able to serve as an outlet in the pass game.
- This ATL defence doesn’t have many holes, but giving up rushing production to QBs sure seems to be on the table. They gave up 39 rush yards to Baker Mayfield in Week 1, 25 rush yards to JJ McCarthy (who was barely on the field because they had to keep punting) in Week 2, and though the total for Bryce Young was only 7 rush yards last week, it wasn’t like Bryce was really pushing for much production on his way to a 30-0 win.
- ATL’s defence has given up a mere 148 passing yards per game, are only giving up 3.6 yards per carry to RBs on the ground, and WR + TE production has been limited (as can be seen from the low passing yard totals they’ve given up).
A QB that runs, an ATL defence that doesn’t give up any other type of production, and the possibility for WAS to have the ball a lot with ATL’s rushing attack stymied against a good WAS rush defence (only 66 rush yards allowed per game) and Michael Penix clearly struggling.
Dial it up – this is the play.
Game 3: Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants – 1:00 PM EST
Notable LAC Injuries:
- OG Mekhi Becton (Out)
- TE Will Dissly (Out)
Notable NYG injuries:
- RB Tyrone Tracy (Out)
Best Bet: Jaxson Dart Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – Betway – 1.15 Units
Best Bet: Ladd McConkey Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-110) – Bet365 – 1.10 Units
It’s a double-banger for this game, with Jaxson Dart making his much anticipated debut and a make-good, bounce-back game loading for Ladd against a Giants secondary that has trouble with slot WRs.
I can’t lie – this Dart bet may be slightly influenced by my excitement to see this guy play. It was never going to work with Russ playing the way he did, and I’m glad that the Giants brass decided to make this move now (before they play PHI, DEN, and PHI again from Weeks 6-8).
That being said – I’m still thinking that we see Dart struggle through the air against an LAC defence that seems rock-solid in the secondary. It’s not like LAC has some stud CB to worry about – but they’re deep, and their DC Jesse Minter has these guys playing great while really limiting explosive plays (they held Raiders WRs and Broncos WRs under 130 receiving yards over the last two weeks).
This LAC run defence is good as well, giving up around 55 rush yards per game to RBs across this season. Where do they struggle? Rushing yards allowed to QBs, where they’ve given up the 2nd most rush yards per game (36.7) and gave up 20 rush yards to one of the most immobile QBs in the League (Geno Smith).
And Dart has been known to use his legs quite a bit. We’ve seen him be the primary read-option guy in this NYG offence even before he was promoted to being the starter, and he averaged over 38 rush yards a game last year at Ole Miss. I like him to get things going on the ground in this one, with the ball in his hands quite a bit considering LA will likely be leading the majority of the game.
And McConkey? Well, this guy is due after a tough start to the year. I’d imagine there will be a concerted effort made by Chargers OC Greg Roman to get him more involved in this one, especially when considering this NYG defence has given up: (i) 77 receiving yards to slot WR Deebo Samuel Week 1, (ii) 112 receiving yards to WR Ceedee Lamb Week 2 (plays a lot out of slot), and (iii) 55 receiving yards to a washed slot WR in Juju Smith-Schuster Week 3.
While LAC might not have to play from behind in this one, the Chargers are leading the NFL in pass rate over expectation this year (meaning that they throw the ball the most in non-passing situations). McConkey’s line is depressed due to his slow start, so we’re taking advantage here in a great spot for a bounce back.
Game 4: Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 1:00 PM EST
Notable PHI Injuries:
- CB Adoree Jackson (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
Notable TB injuries:
- WR Mike Evans (Out)
- WR Chris Godwin (Questionable, FP Fri, expected to play)
- S Christian Izien (Out)
- QB Baker Mayfield (Questionable, LP all week, expected to play)
- OT Tristan Wirfs (Questionable, FP Thurs and Fri, expected to play)
Best Bet: Saquon Barkley Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-120) – Betway – 1.20 Units
This one is pretty simple. It really comes down to just three points:
- This PHI run game doesn’t look to be as good as it was last year. Barkley has yet to surpass 90 rush yards in a game, and he’s averaging 3.3 yards per carry. He had some tough defences to run against in the Rams and KC, but the Bucs are actually allowing 20 rush yards per game less than both those defences at 52 rush yards per game allowed to RBs.
- Meanwhile, Saquon is still being used as a receiving back. He’s had 4 receptions in 2 of 3 games this year, and although his receiving yardage might not add up to much, that’s reflected in his line being so low. With a projection of minimal success on the ground, and a great run defence in front of him, I’m thinking he will be involved through the air so he can actually have the chance to make an impact on this game.
- While the Bucs defence has had success against all offensive position groups when it comes to yardage, they are dead last in the NFL in receiving yards allowed per game to RBs (71.3). Second worst isn’t particularly close in this regard (the Seahawks with 66.5), and this includes 48 receiving yards allowed to Jets RBs, 66 receiving yards allowed to Texans RBs, and 100 receiving yards given up to Bijan Robinson. In terms of overall skill, Barkley is a lot closer to Bijan than any other RB in that list.
With all of that considered, why not take the shot when this line’s so low? He could get this total with one reception, and with TB LBs struggling to cover RBs to such a significant extent, I’m betting he does.
Game 5: Cleveland Browns @ Detroit Lions – 1:00 PM EST
Notable CLE Injuries:
- N/A
Notable DET injuries:
- OT Taylor Decker (Questionable, DNP all week, true question to play)
Best Bet: Jameson Williams Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) – Betway – 1.10 Units
If you read my article last week, you know this one. The CLE defence is pretty scary, but the one thing they do give up? Long receptions.
We took Golden to hit his last week and he came through. This week, it’s a similar speedster in Jameson Williams with 12/16 games last year hitting 18+ yard long receptions and 2/3 games this year with 23+ yard long receptions. While Jamo may not be the most reliable WR when it comes to racking up receptions, he’s always liable to pop off a 40+ yarder.
And as I said, this CLE defence just has trouble guarding the deep ball. They’re in the bottom 10 of the NFL this year in yards allowed per reception to WRs after finishing dead last the previous year in that category. Week 1 included a 20 yarder given up to JaMarr Chase (with CIN struggling to pass deep due to their poor OLine), Week 2 had three BAL pass-catchers with 19+ yard long receptions, and Week 3 had two GB pass-catchers with 31+ yard long receptions. This is all while only giving up 120 receiving yards per game to WRs (a top 10 mark).
So while CLE doesn’t give up much yardage to opposing WRs, the longshot can be had. And with how CLE has shut down opposing RBs this year, I don’t expect that DET will be able to rely on the run game as much this week. I’d even lean toward LT Decker playing this week (seems like he’s just resting a shoulder injury during the last week of practice), which should allow a few deep routes to develop (even considering this elite CLE passrush).
Jamo will get a few deep opportunities – look for him to convert one in this spot.
Game 6: Carolina Panthers @ New England Patriots – 1:00 PM EST
Notable CAR Injuries:
- LB DJ Wonnum (Out)
- LB Patrick Jones (Out)
Notable NE injuries:
- C Jared Wilson (Out)
- OG Mike Onwenu (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
Best Bet: TreVeyon Henderson Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-120) – BetVictor – 1.20 Units
Sheesh – that’s a low line for a bonafide pass-catching RB. Even at reduced snap shares through the first three weeks, Henderson still has 19+ receiving yards in every game so far this season. And now, while things might not change too drastically, it looks like Henderson is lined up for a bigger snap share with the fumble fiasco taking place between Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson last week (3 total fumbles).
It also doesn’t hurt that the NE starting Center is Out for this one, with their top pass-blocker according to PFF (OG Onwenu) banged up to some extent. That should mean some interior pressure from the CAR defence, where Drake Maye will have to unload dump-offs to the RBs at a higher rate.
And man, this CAR defence is there to be had when it comes to RB receiving production. Last week, it was Bijan with a quick 39 receiving yards in a game where that offence had no success. The week before, Cardinals RBs combined for 48 receiving yards, where James Conner popped off an 18 yard reception with limited explosiveness and speed. If Henderson has one play like that – he hits this line.
The Panthers starting LB, Christian Rozeboom, has one of the worst PFF coverage grades in the NFL (31.7). All three CAR Safeties have PFF coverage grades under 63. The other LB they’re starting (Trevin Wallace) has a sub-50 PFF coverage grade. What more do you need to slam this line for Henderson?
Game 7: Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans – 1:00 PM EST
Notable TEN Injuries:
- S Kevin Winston (Doubtful, unlikely to play)
Notable HOU injuries:
- N/A
Best Bet: Nico Collins Over 24.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) – Northstar – 1.15 Units
We’re back to backing the studs – it’s time for Nico to have another good day through the air. However, it’s tough to get behind his receiving yardage line with the projected gamescript of this one (HOU playing with the lead, not as much need to throw). Even with that being the case, Collins should still have a few deep targets coming his way in this one.
Thus far through the year, Nico has two games with a 29+ yard long reception (his last two games). Last year, it was 12 of 14 games with a 24+ yard long receptions. While this Texans OLine isn’t anything to write home about when it comes to pass protection, the TEN pass rush isn’t great either, so Stroud should have some time to find Nico downfield.
And this TEN D isn’t afraid to give up the big play to WRs. In Week 1, two DEN WRs had 18+ yard long receptions. Week 2 – three Rams WRs had 24+ yard long receptions. Week 3 – three Colts WRs had 19+ yard long receptions. And this all happened when those teams were leading against the Titans for the majority of the game.
It’s clear to most observers that TEN outside CB La’Jarius Snead has lost a step, and Collins should see a lot of him in this one (79% outside snap percentage vs 21% slot snap percentage). Love this spot for Collins.
Game 8: New Orleans Saints @ Buffalo Bills – 1:00 PM EST
Notable NO Injuries:
- EDGE Chase Young (Out)
- OG Dillon Radunz (Out)
Notable BUF injuries:
- DT Ed Oliver (Out)
- LB Matt Milano (Out)
- OT Spencer Brown (Questionable, LP Fri, true question to play)
Best Bet: Spencer Rattler Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – 3ET – 1.15 Units
Kind of a sneaky one here – but I think Rattler has it in him to get off with some scrambles in this one. It’s not like Rattler is completely immobile (53 rush yards in 3 games thus far), and this is the one area of BUF’s defence that can be taken advantage of.
The Bills have allowed the most rush yards per game to QBs thus far, and 2nd worst isn’t even close in this regard (50 rush yards per game allowed by BUF, 2nd worst is 36.7 rush yards per game allowed by LAC). It’s fair to note – BUF has played some of the most mobile QBs in the NFL in Lamar Jackson and Justin Fields (both had 70 rushing yards) the first two weeks. That being said – they gave up 10 rush yards to the least likely to run QB in Tua Tagovailoa last week – so this is clearly something you can do as an offence against BUF.
And now, we only need a few more yards than Tua on the ground from Rattler, in a game where Rattler should have the ball in his hands alot (gamescript with NO trailing most this game), and with the Saints having one of the fastest offences in the NFL when it comes to plays-per-game. Yeah – that lines up pretty well.
It might seem like Kamara could be in play here (as the Bills aren’t great against RBs), but he’s been held under 46 rush yards in 2 of 3 games this year, and his receiving totals have taken a hit with OC Kellen Moore running things (9 total receptions for 47 receiving yards through 3 games). Yet – the books still have his rushing+receiving line over 70 yards. The Bills D is only allowing 146 yards per game through the air so far, so NO pass-catchers aren’t it. The Bills offence is pretty much off the board in this one, as they don’t have one clear option in the pass game, and they’re likely looking to keep James Cook limited and healthy with how much they’re projected to lead in this game.
What does that leave us with? Rattler rushing baby. Let’s hit it.
Well, that’s it for this week my friends. Tune back next week for some more analysis if you’re so inclined.