Week 15 is upon us and that can only mean one thing: teams are scratching and clawing to make their way into the post-season. There’re some absolutely vital divisional games on the slate this week, starting with the Bills travelling to Foxborough (where a Patriots win would almost lock in a first round bye), kicking off at the same time as a Chiefs vs Chargers matchup where the Bolts have a chance to guarantee a changing of the guard in the AFC West.
However, lost in the divisional madness is an absolutely loaded afternoon slate (for my money, the best afternoon slate of the year), where 8 of the 10 teams playing are playoff hopefuls looking for huge wins. While Packers vs Broncos may be the most prestigious matchup of the 4:25 kickoffs, right behind it is the Rams hosting the Lions in another iteration of Goff vs Stafford against their original teams. That’ll be the focus of our article, as we’ll run through the matchups (offence vs defence for each team) and end things off with a few props that look good based on the analysis.
We’re going to be posting articles like this weekly on X as we enter the homestretch of the season, so follow us there is you want easier access to the content:
Without further ado, let’s get to the game.
Game: Detroit Lions (8-5) @ Los Angeles Rams (10-3) – 4:25 PM EST
Notable LAR Injuries:
- DB Quentin Lake (IR)
- CB Roger McCreary (IR)
- OT Rob Havenstein (IR)
- TE Tyler Higbee (IR)
- WR Tutu Atwell (likely returning from IR to play)
- WR Davante Adams (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
Notable DET injuries:
- TE Sam LaPorta (IR)
- TE Brock Wright (IR)
- CB Terrion Arnold (IR)
- CB Ennis Rakestraw Jr (IR)
- S Brian Branch (Out)
- S Kerby Joseph (Out)
- OT Taylor Decker (Questionable, DNP all week, truly questionable to play)
- S Thomas Harper (Out)
- WR Khalif Raymond (Questionable, LPs all week, likely to play)
Projected Temperature:
- Dome
Game Lines:
- Rams -6.0, 55.0 O/U
Is it just me, or does Detroit always have the worst injury luck when it comes to their defence? Last year, it was Aidan Hutchinson and their starting LBs missing for the back half of the year. This year: 2 of their 3 best CBs are Out, and both of their stud Safeties are missing (with Joseph suffering a setback this week and likely to end up on IR). That’s not a recipe for success when you go up against a Rams pass attack that ranks Top 5 in almost every metric there is, but there are some concerns with Davante Adams’ hamstring and his lack of effectiveness since he started missing practice time with the injury (he only has 150 receiving yards on 14 receptions over his last four outings). That being noted, let’s jump into an analysis of the Rams offence vs the Lions defence.
Los Angeles Rams Offence vs Detroit Lions Defence
Anddddddd the real Matt Stafford is back. Granted, it was against one of the most banged up defences in the NFL in the Arizona Cardinals, but last week was as good of a bounce back as one could have after Staffshow had some uncharacteristic moments against the Panthers (Week 13). 71% completion rate, 281 passing yards, and 3 Tuds, resulting in his highest PFF offensive grade of the season (which coincidentally was his highest grade in the last five seasons). The OLine and the WRs did their jobs (no drops, and tied for a season-low with 4 defensive pressures allowed), and Stafford is back to being the odds-on favourite to win MVP this year. What a treat it’s been to be a Rams fan.
But this week – things might be a little bit tougher in the pass game. I’m not saying that the Lions are a great coverage team by any stretch of the imagination, but they have more to worry about than AZ did last week. The biggest fear has to be the Detroit pass-rush, where Aidan Hutchinson is the clear X-factor wherever he lines up in this front. Despite his name missing from DPOY conversations this year, the guy is still Top 10 in sacks (10) and 1st in the NFL in total QB pressures (80) through 13 games. Something that you may not know: his running-mate, Al-Quadin Muhammad, is also Top 10 in sacks this year with 10. It’s my opinion that this is because of the extra attention paid to Hutch and QBs gravitating away from the former 2nd overall pick toward Muhammad, but he’s still a threat to any gunslinger that takes too long to get the ball out.
So how is the Rams OLine going to stack up against a defensive front that’s 11th in the NFL in pressure rate? In my opinion, I think it’ll go just fine. It’s been three straight weeks now where the Rams have a Top 10 PFF pass blocking grade while only allowing 4 Stafford sacks over the last 5 games. Part of the credit goes to Stafford for getting the ball out of his hands on time – but the OLine has shown that they’ve been able to gel with more time together throughout the season. What’s really been of note is the stellar performances the Rams have gotten from backup RT Warren McClendon Jr, as he’s taken over for Havenstein over the last 3 weeks and graded better as a passblocker in each performance (McClendon’s lowest pass blocking grade is 74.6; Havenstein’s season-high is 70.3 in Week 2). Talk about some stellar depth.
That being said, it’s not like the Rams have really faced a pass-rusher of the quality that Hutchinson is. Probably the closest comp I can come up with (besides going against Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson in Week 1), is when the Rams went up against the Jags and Josh Hines-Allen in Week 7. Havenstein was still in for that one, and Hines-Allen had 7 pressures, 2 QB Hits, and 2 QB Hurries. Not exactly encouraging, but with a steady-dose of chip-blocks from the TEs/RBs and Stafford getting the ball out quick, I don’t think it’ll be too much of a concern.
So, the question becomes: will Stafford be able to get the ball off quick? The answer is quite clearly yes, as this depleted Lions secondary has been anything but solid over the last month. In Week 12, Jameis went scorched earth on these DBs and had 366 passing yards + 2 TDs. The week after? Jordan Love lights em up for 234 and 4. Last week? Dak may have had some issues with turnovers (2 picks), but he still managed to throw for 376 yards while leading the Cowboys offence to 30 points. And now – Detroit has suffered a big blow with All-Pro safety Brian Branch suffering an achilles injury late in that Cowboys matchup (Branch is the Lions clear leader in pass coverage grading).
And boy oh boy – Puka is about to feast. Coming off the single-highest graded performance by a WR in the PFF era, it’s clear that Nacua is rounding into form at just the right time. The Lions defence plays zone coverage at the 5th highest rate in the NFL this year (78.8%), and that’s just what the doctor order for #12 on the field, #1 in your hearts. As we’ve touched on before in these articles, Puka kills zone coverage, ranking 2nd in the NFL in receiving yards vs zone coverage (777) and 1st when it comes to receptions (62). I’d expect another big day for him, especially considering the recent Adam’s downturn and the fact that TEs don’t have consistent production against this Lions defence (3 of the last 5 TEs they’ve faced have gone for 54+ receiving yards, but 2 of the last 5 have been held under 25 receiving yards).
Where the Rams might actually struggle against this Lions defence? The run game. You name the metric when it comes to stopping the run, this Lions defence is in the top ⅓ of the League. Total rush yards allowed? 9th with 1,335. Rushing TDs allowed? T-5th with 9. EPA per rush? 4th at -0.09. PFF rush defence grade? 3rd at 80.7. There’s no getting around it: these guys are physical and aggressive when it comes to stopping the opposition’s ground game, where LB Jack Campbell leads the NFL with 34 run stops (run stops = tackles that constitutes a “failure” by the offence). It’s a nasty front seven that makes almost every offence in the NFL one-dimensional.
And it’s a real shame too, as the Rams run game has just started to heat up over the last four weeks with the Corum + Kyren combo gaining steam. 128 rush yards and over 10 yards per carry for Corum last week on his way to two house calls, with Kyren still at 6.5 yards per carry on his way to 70+ rush yards for the 3rd time in the last 4 weeks. The real revelation has been Corum, as it’s now been two straight games where he’s had more rush yards than Kyren despite having fewer carries. As a fantasy owner: you gotta hate it. As a Rams fan? It’s been amazing, and sorely needed after Kyren’s shown a lack of ball security and burst when handling 20+ touches. The RB production has been in large part due to this OLine paving the way, as can be evidenced through the Rams ranking #1 in yards before contact per rush (2.1) and bottom 5 in run stuff rate (13.6%). The boys are mauling in the run game, making way for a true strength vs strength matchup in this game.
All told, I expect the Rams to still come out trying to run the ball to set up the play-action and keep the Detroit pass-rush honest. They’ll likely find some success, but will also encounter some stuffs along the way, leading to average numbers for the RB tandem. By committing to this kind of gameplan, the pass game should be able to function at a high level, with Stafford faking many-a-handoff to roll out of the pocket and find the TEs + Puka sitting in zones for big gains. All told, I’d be surprised if the Rams don’t score 24+ in this one with around 100 rush yards split between the two backs and 250+ pass yards & at least 2 TDs from Stafford.
Detroit Lions Offence vs Los Angeles Rams Defence
While I expect the Rams to have a notable advantage on offence, the same doesn’t go for the Rams defence vs this Detroit offence. It should be a tough one, with both units having some success and some failure on the way to an exciting finish. Let’s get into it.
Okay Rams pass-rush – I’m not going to give you too much credit for taking advantage of a piss-poor AZ OLine, but it was a step in the right direction. 23 total pressures and 3 sacks against Jacoby Brissett last week looks nice – until you realize that Brissett averages 20.75 pressures against and 3.6 sacks allowed per game over his 8 starts. Still, I loved seeing Byron Young and Jared Verse with a 16%+ pass rush win rate, with emerging situational pass-rusher Josiah Stewart (Rookie) topping the list at an astounding 29.4%. I’m not going to say the pass-rush is as good as it’s ever been (especially after that poor Carolina showing in Week 13) – but this week will tell a lot.
That’s because this Detroit OLine hasn’t been nearly as good as it’s been in the past when it comes to pass blocking. Over the last four games, Goff has been pressured 10+ times and sacked in every outing against pass-rushes like Dallas and NYG, which we all know is the key to stopping Jared. It’s not rocket science: the more Goff is pressured with his lack of mobility, the worse he does. The real matchup to watch here? It comes on the interior, where the Detroit OLine has trouble holding their ground.
DET OTs Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker? Both in the Top 50 of the NFL in PFF pass blocking grade out of all OLineman, and Top 30 out of just Tackles (with both at a 70+ grade on the season). Their Guards and Center? All at a 60 grade or lower, with Rookie OG Tate Ratledge among the worst Guards in the League when it comes to pressures allowed (20 total pressures, 7 QB hits). If you want to get pressure on Goff, come down the middle. And that’s exactly where I think the Rams have the advantage, with Braden Fiske and Kobie Turner among the better IDL pass-rushers in the NFL (in addition to all the stunts the Rams run, which should give Verse + BY ample opportunity to attack Detroit’s IOL).
So, in my eyes, Goff will definitely feel some pressure. But will it really matter with how good his weapons are at separating? Jamo and Amon-Ra are no joke, with St. Brown averaging over 80 receiving yards per game and Jamo averaging over 60 receiving yards per game (with 4 of his last 5 games at 88+ receiving yards due to a change in playcalling, as Dan Campbell is calling the shots now). I’m expecting more St. Brown in this one than Jamo (as Jamo’s routes usually need a little more time to develop, which Goff won’t always have here), in addition to Jahmyr Gibbs making big plays coming out of the backfield as a receiver.
Why is Gibbs going to do well in the pass game? Because it’s still a pretty big weakness of the Rams this year, despite their improvement against the run. Over their last five outings, 4 of the 5 RB rooms have gone for 35+ receiving yards, with 3 of those RB rooms going for 54+. This includes the likes of CMC with 66 receiving yards (obviously, nothing to be ashamed about), Kenneth Walker with 44 receiving yards (a season-high for him), and Chuba Hubbard with 41 receiving yards (also a season-high for him). I can’t help but attribute some of the more recent struggles to the loss of Quentin Lake, but if you’re expecting anything in this game, it should be St. Brown and Gibbs to have massive days through the air.
But on the ground, I think the Rams defence will have Gibbs + Montgomery covered. Despite Gibbs absolutely torching the NYG’s bottom 5 rush defence to the tune of 219 rush yards in Week 12, in the other three games over the last four weeks, he hasn’t exceeded 70 rush yards in an outing. Seriously, 3 of his last 4 games have resulted in 150 total rush yards on 3.4 yards per carry. The defences he’s faced over the span are pretty decent run defences (Green Bay and Philly are 11th and 18th in EPA/rush respectively, and the Cowboys have been a lot better against the run with the addition of Quinnen Williams), but so are the Rams. In fact, the Rams are a better rush defence than any of those units based on several different metrics, including EPA/rush (6th), PFF rush defence grade (1st), and rush yards/attempt (6th).
The biggest reasons for this stellar rush defence? Poona Ford and Nate Landman. They’re the two newcomers to this defence, while also being the team-leaders in run stops this year. In fact, Landman is tied for 5th in the NFL when it comes to LB run stops, proving his worth as the Rams signed him to a pretty nice extension a few weeks back. That’s not even mentioning Safety Kam Curl, the DB with the highest PFF rush defence grade out of qualifying defenders (at least 50% of defensive snaps played). The Rams have guys at all three levels to stuff the run, and only 2 of the 5 active Detroit OLineman grade out as above-average run blockers this year.
Based on all of that, I think I know the clear path here for the Lions. They can try to establish the run, and they might pop off two-three 10+ yard bursts against the Rams stout front. However, I think there will also be quite a few run stuffs as well. When the Lions offence runs into issues gaining ground in the run game, it will immediately shift to passing to the short/intermediate areas of the field. This is where Amon-Ra and Gibbs should get plenty of work. I’d be surprised if the Rams defence held the Lions to 20 points or less, but I’d also be surprised if the Lions scored 30+.
I’m thinking this will be a close game overall, as it always is when the Rams go up against the Lions. Still, I have the Rams edging out the Lions here, where both run games mostly struggle and Stafford outduels Goff in a shootout (due to him facing less pass-rush pressure and having a Top 3 WR in the NFL to expose a DET secondary that’s unquestionably worse than the Rams).
Betting Props
- Puka Nacua Over 8.5 Receptions (+110)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown 8+ Receptions (+110)
- Jahmyr Gibbs Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Rams Over 2.5 Sacks Total (-105)
- Jahmyr Gibbs Under 73.5 Rushing Yards (-110)