It’s Week 11 my friends and you know what that means – we’re getting into the dog days of the regular season. We’re starting to see some teams separate from the pack (some of which we didn’t expect success from prior to the season kicking off), and it seems like some stalwarts are finally starting to get it together (Ravens, you’re making the playoffs). Things are constantly changing in the NFL, but some things will never change (Chiefs are still the favourite to win the Super Bowl this year). And we have everyone’s favourite for the last time this week – an awesome international game, where instead of sleeping in a bit and getting a loaded early slate, we have to set our alarms and watch two mediocre teams battle it out in Spain. Yupee.
But you know what can get us through a game like that? Player props that will make you feel like you have some skin in the game. We missed getting our article out last week, but in Week 9, it was another mediocre performance on my part: 6-8 with 3 units lost on a slate that screamed yardage overs, with some pretty tough beats along the way. That drops us to 28-38 on the season, with a disgusting 14 units lost. Pretty damn shitty if you ask me (or anyone else). That isn’t going to stop me from analyzing these games, but I wouldn’t blame you if you’re more selective over which picks to indulge in. End of day, I’m giving up the data – you choose what you want to play and have some damn fun with it.
No bullshit here – every betting line is verified and everything is tracked @betstamp if you guys want to follow me there (username: PlusMoneyJ).
2025 Season Record: 28-38 (-14.0 units)
So, without further ado, let’s get to the board.
Game 1: Washington Commanders @ Miami Dolphins – 9:30 AM EST
Notable WAS Injuries:
- QB Jayden Daniels (Out)
- WR Treylon Burks (Out)
- WR Terry McLaurin (Out)
- TE Ben Sinnott (Out)
Notable MIA injuries:
- DE Bradley Chubb (Questionable, LP Fri)
- CB Rasul Douglas (Questionable, LP Thurs and Fri)
Best Bet: Jaylen Waddle Over Yards 25.5 Longest Reception (-120) – via Sports Interaction – 1.20 Units
We start things off in Spain, where you have two teams battling it out without much hope of making it to the postseason. For Dolphins fans, at least you can say the team’s been playing for McDaniels, as they played spoiler last week, taking down the juggernaut Bills in the warm weather of Miami. For Commanders fans – what can I say but I’m sorry that the moment things started to look up after last year, you’re now stuck with the oldest roster in the NFL and minimal draft capital with an injured Jayden Daniels. Life comes at you fast.
With all that being said – Dolphins fans have a couple of things to look forward to in this game. De’Von Achane has been an absolute stud this year, somehow staying healthy with a huge workload, a slight frame, and some nasty production. Tua looks …. not bad. The defence has taken a step forward. But lost in all of that – Waddle has really made his mark as a WR1 in this League.
Ever since Tyreek Hill went down with that puke-inducing injury in Week 4, Waddle has 6 of 7 games with 82+ receiving yards and 3 house calls over that span. He’s not just the number one target in this passing offence, he’s everything to this passing offence down the field. Achane and Malik Washington eat up everything underneath, but this guy exposes defences deep whenever he gets a chance. And with that be noted – you know where we’re going here.
Long reception lovers unite! Here’s Waddle’s long receptions totals for every week that he’s been the WR1: 46, 45, 15, 43, 24, and 38. That’s not too shabby at all, and it’s clear that if the Dolphins are going to keep this WAS defence honest, they’re going to have to try at least a few deep balls to the only notable WR in town.
And why wouldn’t you with how this WAS defence is playing? They’re allowing the 4th highest yards per reception total in the NFL this year (14.2), and here’s a little look at their last few games:
- Week 10 vs DET: Jamo burns them for a 41 yarder in a blowout
- Week 9 vs SEA: 3 (!!!) WRs burn them for 25+ yarders in a blowout
- Week 8 vs KC: 3 (!!!) WRs burn them for 24+ yarders in a blowout
- Week 7 vs DAL: Pickens and Ceedee both have 44+ yarders in – you guessed it – a blowout
It seemingly doesn’t matter what the gamescript is – if you’re going up against WAS, you’re tossing the pigskin downfield. And now, the CB who’s been playing the best thus far (Trey Amos), was just put on IR. It’s tough to look anywhere else in this game with the data staring me straight in the face.
So, take the chance on Waddle, a guy who rarely disappoints and should feast against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL.
Game 2: Los Angeles Chargers @ Jacksonville Jaguars – 1:00 PM EST
Notable LAC Injuries:
- OTs Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt (IR)
- OT Bobby Hart (Questionable, LPs all week)
- WR Quentin Johnston (Questionable, FP Fri)
- S Elijah Molden (Questionable, LP Fri)
- CB Tarheed Still (Questionable, FP Fri)
Notable JAX injuries:
- OT Anton Harrison (Out)
- CB Jourdan Lewis (Out)
- TE Hunter Long (Out)
- WR Brian Thomas Jr (Questionable, LPs all week)
- TE Brenton Strange (DNP Fri, likely not returning from IR)
Best Bet: Justin Herbert Over 248.5 Passing Yards (-117) – via NorthStar – 1.17 Units
Run that shit back Herbo. I get some hesitancy here after Herbs just went for a mere 220 passing yards against the Steelers last week (a Steelers defence that gives up the most pass yards per game). But how can a guy get passing the ball when (i) the opposing offence scores 10 points, (ii) Kimani Vidal is crushing it on the ground, and (iii) TJ Watt is all over you (mostly because you’re starting OLine is straight ass in pass pro). It was really a perfect storm for limiting Herbert production – and he still came out with 220 last week.
If you think it will be the same with this Jags team – I’ve got to disagree with you. PIT has 95 pressures and 32 sacks this season. The Jags? 75 pressure and 12 sacks (lowest total in the NFL). Well, that’s gotta help Herbo stay upright in the pocket. How about Vidal though, he could make it so that Herbs doesn’t have to throw much? Well the Jags allow the 3rd fewest rush yards per game to RBs this year (71.7), with only 1 RB room going for 100+ on the season. So, Vidal should be neutralized. And lastly – will he have to throw the ball to keep things close? I know the Chargers defence has looked great as of late, but the Jags just put up 29 points against the best defence in the League in terms of PPG allowed (Texans), and they’ve scored 26+ points in 6 of 9 games this year.
All that to say – I think this is a game where Herbert’s going to have to use his weapons to get this one in the win column. And it’s not like this Jags defence has been strangers to letting opposing QBs torch them. They’re giving up the 5th most passing yards per game to this point (261.7), and here’s their most recent performances:
- Week 10 vs HOU and backup QB General Mills: 292 pass yards
- Week 9 vs LV and the ghost of Geno Smith: 284 pass yards
- Week 7 (Week 8 Bye) vs LAR and MVP Matt Stafford: 182 pass yards (I’ll get to this one)
- Week 6 vs SEA and a nasty Sam Darnold: 295 pass yards
- Week 5 vs KC and Kermit the Frog: 318 pass yards
- Week 4 vs SF and Brock Purdy (before the dreaded turf toe): 309 pass yards
You’re starting to get the picture. The only time in their last 6 games that they’ve held a passer under 284 yards was in London during Week 7 (against the Rams). And it’s not like Stafford couldn’t have thrown for 300+ on them, he just didn’t have to with the Rams being ahead by four scores at half time. With everything I noted before, I’m guessing that same scenario doesn’t play out here.
Herbert has all his weapons at his disposal – so whether it be Keenan, Ladd, QJ, or Gadsden, this line’s getting smoked. Book it.
Game 3: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills – 1:00 PM EST
Notable TB Injuries:
- WR Chris Godwin (Out)
- RB Bucky Irving (Out)
- EDGE Haason Reddick (Out)
Notable BUF injuries:
- CB Taron Johnson (Questionable, LP Fri)
- TE Dalton Kincaid (Out)
- DT TJ Sanders (Questionable, FP all week)
- LB Shaq Thompson (Questionable, FP Thurs and Fri)
Best Bet: Khalil Shakir Over 4.5 Receptions (-118) – via Sports Interaction – 1.18 Units
I don’t know about you guys, but I think Josh Allen’s security blanket is gonna get peppered with targets this week. Let’s get into why.
The Bills offence to this point – not terrible, but they’ve had their bad games. Josh Allen has 270+ pass yards in his last two games – but less than 190 pass yards in the two games before that. James Cook tore apart two rushing defences in KC and CAR, but then he puts up less than 55 rush yards against MIA and NE. There’s no consistency, as it seems like gamescript dictates a lot of what goes on in terms of offensive production.
Except for when it comes to Shakir. Khalil will always have a role in this offence, going for 6+ receptions in 4 of his last 5 games and 43+ receiving yards in 7 of 9 games this year. So they’re giving us this low a line, with that production in mind, and we haven’t even considered the matchup yet? Pretty wild.
And the matchup is juicy with this Bucs secondary, as it’s not exactly lighting the world on fire as of late. They’re allowing the 7th most receiving yards per game to WRs (160) and the 5th most receptions per game (12.8). But that’s not even getting to the fun part.
Shakir lines up about 72% of the time in the slot, with 3 of his last 4 games above 75%. And the Bucs DB that plays the most in the slot? CB Jacob Parrish, a guy who’s played less coverage snaps than CB Jamel Dean, CB Zyon McCollum, S Tykee Smith, and S Antoine Winfield. Despite playing less snaps than all those guys, Parrish has allowed the 2nd most receiving yards in this secondary (274, McCollum has only allowed 299 on 75 more coverage snaps), and the most receptions (29). That’s not good, and Shakir should be the main benefactor here.
On top of all that, the Bucs should put up some points in this one (averaging 24.4 points per game on offence), driving a positive passing gamescript, and I’d be surprised if James Cook takes this game over (Bucs only allow 80.3 rush yards per game to opposing RB rooms).
I don’t even care whether you take Shakir’s receiving yards line or his receptions line – I expect both to hit come Sunday.
Game 4: Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons – 1:00 PM EST
Notable CAR Injuries:
- S Lathan Ransom (Out)
- LB Trevin Wallace (Out)
Notable ATL injuries:
- CB Dee Alford (Out)
- OG Matt Bergeron (Out)
- DT Brandon Dorlus (Questionable, LP Thurs and Fri)
- DE Leonard Floyd (Out)
- DE Zach Harrison (Questionable, DNP Fri)
- CB Mike Hughes (Questionable, LP all week)
- OG Chris Lindstrom (Questionable, LP Fri)
- WR Drake London (Questionable, LP Thurs and Fri)
Best Bet: Rico Dowdle Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-117) – via NorthStar – 1.17 Units
This pick is just one of those ones where you keep it simple stupid. It’s hard to know what to expect from a gamescript point of view, as CAR blew ATL out of the water in their only matchup earlier this year (30-0 win in Week 3), and each team can decide not to show up any given week.
That being said – we all know what the Panthers want to do on offence. In 5 of their last 6 games, they’ve had 20+ rush attempts by their RBs. In 5 of their last 6 games, Rico has gotten 17+ rush attempts. And it’s quite clear that Dowdle has taken over this backfield, as he has 43 rush attempts over the last two games compared to 8 rush attempts for Chuba. The workload will be there for Rico.
And what has Dowdle done in those 5 of 6 weeks where he had 17+ rush attempts? Oh just some rushing yardage totals of 206 yards against MIA, 183 yards against DAL, 79 yards against NYJ, 130 yards against GB, and 53 rush yards against NO. That’s some nasty production, save for last week vs NO in a weird, divisional matchup where they were surprisingly trailing for most of the game.
I don’t think he’ll have another performance like that, considering that this ATL defence (i) just allowed Jonathan Taylor to go for 244 rush yards last week, (ii) has allowed 141+ rush yards to RB rooms in 3 of the last 4 weeks, and (iii) has never held an opposing RB room to under 90 rush yards since Week 2.
A lot of this can be linked back to ATL LB Devine Diablo going out in Week 7 and being placed on the IR. Since that time, here’s how opposing RBs have done against this defence:
- Week 7 vs SF: CMC has 129 rush yards (season high)
- Week 8 vs MIA: Three-headed monster of Achane, Ollie Gordon, and Jaylen Wright combine for 141 rush yards
- Week 9 vs NE: TreVeyon Hendo and Terrell Jennings combine for 90 rush yards
- Week 10 vs IND: JT explodes – nuff said
And Diablo is still on the shelf for this one. It’s not the worst rush defence in the League – but with Dowdle averaging 5.3 yards per carry on 149 rush attempts, getting 17+ rush attempts per game recently, and a CAR offence that won’t want to pass the ball against an ATL defence allowing the 2nd fewest pass yards per game (183.7) – I think I know where this one’s going.
Game 5: Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers – 1:00 PM EST
Notable CIN Injuries:
- QB Joe Burrow (Out)
- DE Trey Hendrickson (Out)
- OG Lucas Patrick (Questionable, LP Fri)
- RB Samaje Perine (Out)
- DE Shemar Stewart (Out)
Notable PIT injuries:
- EDGE Alex Highsmith (Out)
- LB Cole Holcomb (Out)
- OG Isaac Seumalo (Questionable, DNP Fri)
- CB Darius Slay (Out)
Best Bet: Tee Higgins Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-105) – via Sports Interaction – 1.05 Units
There are a million different player prop overs in this game that you can have confidence in, as both the Bengals defence and the Steelers defence have been anything but solid this year. I should give a bit more credit to the Steelers D, as they’ve at least shown up in a few games.
That being said, this Steelers secondary is straight deficient at this point. I know they got some big names in that room, but it’s just not working once they hit the field. They’re allowing the most pass yards per game (290.7, 13 yards more than the next worst defence), and the most receiving yards per game to WRs (194.1, 17 yards more than the next worst defence). It’s been 3 of the last 4 weeks allowing a QB to go for 342+ pass yards, and each of the last 4 weeks allowing WRs to go for 170+ receiving yards. Yikes.
And one of those 4 games was the legendary Thursday Night matchup between these two teams in Week 7, where Jamarr Chase had 161 receiving yards and Tee followed things up with 96 receiving yards. Pretty damn decent, so why am I going to Tee Higgs’ long reception here?
Let’s first look at long receptions the Steelers have allowed over the last few weeks:
- Week 10 vs LAC: McConkey rips off a 58 yarder
- Week 9 vs IND: Alec Pierce (same profile as Tee) hits a 36 yarder
- Week 8 vs GB: Christian Watson (same profile as Tee) hits a 33 yarder
- Week 7 vs CIN: Tee Higgins (he’s him) hits a 29 yarder
- Week 6 vs CLE: Nobody, it’s Cleveland after all
- Week 4 vs MIN (Week 5 Bye): JJetta and Addison both have 29+ yarders
- Week 3 vs NE: Kayshon Boutte (same profile as Tee) has a 20 yarder
It’s not foolproof, but it’s clear that these big WRs with speed on the outside can beat this defence deep. Now we correlate that with Tee Higgins’ long reception totals since Flacco has taken over (starting with the most recent): 44, 44, 29, and 19.
This isn’t a sure thing – but it’s a minimal line that he’s surpassed in each of his last 3 games.
Do you want to go shooting for the moon with Jaylen Warren when his rushing + receiving yardage line is juiced to over 100 yards? Same goes for Ja’Marr Chase, with an absurd receiving yardage line around 95 yards and a receptions line at 8.5. Do you want to take a stab at what PIT TE it will be this week? Do you want to ride DK Metcalf when he hasn’t had over 55 receiving yards in any of his last 4 games? How about Rodgers or Flacco, any faith they can both blow the stat sheet up again in a clear trap game in PIT?
Not for me – I’ll take the most simple one on the board, in a game I think CIN will be trailing in, with a guy who has always been able to get downfield and can hit the bet in one play. Lock it in.
Game 6: Green Bay Packers @ New York Giants – 1:00 PM EST
Notable GB Injuries:
- C Elgton Jenkins (Out)
- WR Matthew Golden (Questionable, LPs all week)
- CB Nate Hobbs (Out)
- DE Lukas Van Ness (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri)
- WR Savion Williams (Questionable, LPs all week)
Notable NYG injuries:
- CB Paulson Adebo (Questionable, LPs all week)
- QB Jaxson Dart (Out)
- EDGE Chaucey Gholston (Out)
- S Tyler Nubin (Doubtful)
- LB Bobby Okereke (Questionable, LP Fri)
- WR Darius Slayton (Out)
- EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux (Out)
Best Bet: Josh Jacobs Over 79.5 Rushing Yards (-115) – via 3ET – 1.15 Units
Much like Rico Dowdle, this is a “keep it simple stupid” move. Josh Jacobs certainly hasn’t been a world beater from a rushing yardage production standpoint, but he also hasn’t played the NYG defence this year. Let’s get into it.
We’ll start with Jacobs. I’d say he’s having a pretty good year so far, even if he’s not lighting up the stat sheet. In 4 of his last 6 games, he’s had 100+ scrimmage yards and 74+ rush yards. The two games he didn’t? He had shown up on the injury report with a calf issue throughout the week, and the Packers deployed a much more conservative approach with backup RB Emmanuel Wilson getting up to 32%+ of the snaps (and Jacobs around 53-55%).
Last week? Jacobs right back at 74% of snaps, with Wilson dropping down to 21% of snaps. And would you look at that: Jacobs wasn’t limited in any practice that week due to the calf injury. Coincidence? I don’t think so, and this week he’s had a clean bill of health again through a week of practice.
So now that he’s kicked the calf injury to the curb, he’s set to take on a NYG defence that has no ability to stop the run. They’re allowing the 2nd most rush yards per game to RBs (119.7), and they’ve allowed the last 3 RB rooms they’ve faced to go over 105 rush yards. This includes a 106 rush yard game to CMC in Week 9 (he’s averaging 62.6 rush yards per game), and a 150 rush yard game to Saquon in Week 8 (he’s averaging 64.3 rush yards per game). With Jacobs averaging 67.6 rush yards per game (more than both CMC and Saquon), and at a similar skill level to those two, how does he not hit here?
It’s fair to note that the Packers lost a starting OLineman in their Center, Elgton Jenkins, to injury. But then again, the Giants are absolutely getting wrecked by injuries right now, and while I have faith Jameis Winston will provide some exciting football, I think the Packers will have the ball a lot in this one while maintaining a lead.
That all lends itself to Jacob’s production, so let’s lock him in here.
Game 7: Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans – 1:00 PM EST
Notable HOU Injuries:
- OG Ed Ingram (Questionable, LPs all week)
- TE Cade Stover (Questionable, FP Fri)
- QB CJ Stroud (Out)
Notable TEN injuries:
- EDGE Arden Key (Questionable, LPs all week)
- WR Calvin Ridley (Questionable, LPs all week)
- DT Jeffrey Simmons (Questionable, LPs Thurs and Fri)
- S Xavier Woods (Out)
Best Bet: Nico Collins Over 24.5 Yards Longest Reception (-110) – via Sports Interaction – 1.10 Units
Did you guys see the way Davey Mills was spinning that ball last week (filling in for CJ Stroud)? Not saying we have a QB controversy on our hands – but do we? It’s been two weeks with Mills at QB (he played most of the Week 9 game), and while he might not be hitting every throw, it seems like Collins has taken advantage (75+ receiving yards and 7 receptions in each game).
But it’s not like Nico hasn’t been converting on the long ball regardless of the QB. Here’s his long reception numbers (starting with the most recent): 54 (Mills), 26 (Mills), 14, 24, 37, 50, 29. So I’m seeing 5 out 7 times he’s cleared this current line, and though I expect the Texans to lead most of this game, they still have to get some production going on offence. I’d imagine Nico breaks off at least one long one in this matchup.
The reason for that being: this Titans secondary is dreadful. They’re giving up the 7th most receiving yards per reception in the NFL (13.1), and you don’t have to look far to see how many long balls they’ve given up:
- Week 9 vs LAC (Week 10 Bye): 3 WRs with 21+ yarders (including a 31 yarder from Keenan Allen)
- Week 8 vs IND: 2 WRs with 21+ yarders (including a 50 yarder from Alec Pierce)
- Week 7 vs NE: 3 WRs with 24+ yarders (including a 39 yarder from Kayshon Boutte)
- Week 6 vs LV (who only had 174 passing yards): Tre Tucker with a 37 yarder
- Week 5 vs AZ: Marvin Harrison Jr. with a 43 yarder
If you’re the deep ball guy for your team (as Pierce, Boutte, Tucker, and Marv are), you’re converting on a long one against this team. That’s gonna be Nico in this matchup, and I would not be surprised if TEN All-Pro DT Jeffrey Simmons comes back from injury here to stuff a Texans run game that’s been decent lately, but still not very good.
In a game that will lack offensive production from both sides, I’m riding with the proven commodity to hit big on one play. I suggest you do too.
Game 8: Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings – 1:00 PM EST
Notable CHI Injuries:
- S Jaquan Brisker (Questionable, LP Fri)
- LB TJ Edwards (Out)
Notable MIN injuries:
- EDGE Jonathon Greenard (Out)
- C Ryan Kelly (Questionable, LPs all week)
Best Bet: Jordan Addison Over 21.5 Yards Longest Reception (-115) – via Sports Interaction – 1.15 Units
We wrap things up with a kinda funky one in MIN, as it’s tough to trust this Vikings passing offence with JJ McCarthy (or is it Nine this week?) at the helm. But even with limited production, Addison has been hitting on the long ones, and that’s all these Chicago Bears give up without Pro-Bowl CB Jaylon Johnson in the lineup.
I mean, really, this Bears secondary has TROUBLE in coverage down the field. They’re allowing the highest yards per reception total to WRs this year (15.2), and 2nd worst isn’t necessarily close. We all saw Darius Slayton light them up last week, going for multiple 25+ yard receptions (including a 38 yarder). The week before that, all 4 CIN WRs who played had a 27+ yard long reception. Before that, Bateman and Flowers both had 20+ yarders for the Ravens (with notorious deep ball thrower Tyler Huntley at QB). Even the week before that, you had Chris Olave come down with a 57 yarder vs the Bears. You name the time – this Dennis Allen-led defence is giving up explosive plays.
The funny thing is – in the two games Addison has played with McCarthy, he only has 83 total receiving yards on 10 targets (5 receptions). However, his long reception totals over those two games? A 31 yarder vs the Lions and a 26 yarder vs the Ravens. The only time this guy is really getting targets is down the field, and that’s all while Justin Jefferson has put up 84 receiving yards on 10 catches with long reception totals of 11 yards and 21 yards. Make it make sense.
Everyone thought McCarthy would hit the ground running and open up this offence, but it’s clear that’s not the case. With the Bears being by far his easiest matchup since returning, you have to think both Addison and Jefferson will get more work in this one (especially with how the Bears offence has improved, pushing the gamescript to favour MIN passing the ball). Nonetheless, even if that’s not the case and it’s a low volume day, Addison has shown he can get long receptions, and he’s facing the defence that gives up over 15 yards per catch to WRs. At this line, I’ll take the shot.
Well, that’s all she wrote on a clean board for us this Sunday. Best of luck to everyone and see you next week.