UFC Vegas 88: Three Best Bets for a Gross Card

Well, you can tell how big a fan I am of this card based on the title of this article. It’s a steaming pile o’ dog shit. I mean, fair enough after that UFC 299 card, but I can’t help feeling like this fight card could not have been put together at all and everyone would be fine. But I get it, UFC has to make some cuts with DWCS coming back, and this card is chock full of likely cuts with a loss. The only saving grace may be that the MCL-less Tai Tuivasa is fighting, and even with the lack of a knee ligament, I still gotta shoot my shot in a spot with more value than a dollar store that actually sells all items for a dollar. So let’s go.

Fight 1: Tai Tuivasa vs Marcin Tybura

Line: Pick em’ -110

Pick: I will do a Shooey if Tai Pulls out the W, Tai ML at -110 (1.0u)

The UFC has just not been nice to everyone’s favorite Tai. I mean the guy had to fight Gane, Pavlovich, and a surprisingly spry Volkov in his last three fights. He lost all of em’. No bounce-back opponents after any of those losses Dana?!? Come on man. Well, now Tai is finally getting his bounce back fight in Tybura.

Here is Tybura’s last two fights against power punchers: (1) Aspinal KO’s him in the first, (2) Augusto Sakai (I know I am stretching the term power puncher with this one) KO’s him in the first. Other than that, Tybura has faced Blagoy Ivanov, Alexander Romanov, Walt Harris, and Alexander Volkov. He beat everyone but Volkov.

To me, this shows that Tybura can win those more drawn-out Heavyweight fights, where the other side lacks that fight-ending power and is content to hang out and try to win on points. There could not be a fighter that is more the opposite of this style than Tai. Tai’s a fight ender, or he loses inside the distance after all of his power and gas tank are drained. Combine the fact they are in the smaller octagon in the Apex, and I’m locking in Tai as my pick. You could go KO here for a couple extra points at +115, or Tai first round KO, as it’s likely he wins this way around 90% of the time. But I am playing it safe with the pick em’ ML.

Fight 2: Mike Davis vs Natan Levy

Line: ML: Mike Davis (-450) Natan Levy (+350)

Pick: Natan is a Pretender Compared to Mike, Same Game Parlay Mike Davis ML + Over 1.5 Rounds for -150 (2.0u)

If this fight was just based on how tough the fighter looks, I would go Levy. Too bad for Levy, you actually have to be a smart, well-rounded fighter to win this fight.

Mike Davis is clearly the better striker, and I’d make the case he is the better wrestler too, even if that may be Levy’s claim to fame. Even if Levy holds the wrestling advantage to an extent, he also held the wrestling advantage in a recent fight against Rafa Garcia and he lost.

The reason I am expecting this to at least go over the 1.5 rounds is because of the fighters’ histories. 6 of Levy’s 9 fights have gone to decision, including his only loss and his last 3 fights (his only 3 fights in the UFC). For Davis, though he has shown he can put guys out with his hands, his last two fights in the UFC have gone to decision.

While I don’t put it past Davis to piece Levy up on the feet and get a knockout, I don’t think this will happen until a little later in the fight based on their histories. So hammer my most confident bet here and swim in the money that comes back your way.

Fight 3: Jafel Filho vs Ode’ Osbourne

Line: ML: Filho (-160) Osbourne (+130)

Pick: Filho is just dangerous, Same Game Parlay Filho ML and No Distance for +105 (1.0u)

I actually like Ode quite a bit, it’s just his style of fighting that will cost him this fight. He is great at times, showing some of the most explosive striking for a 125er. But this man just makes too many mistakes to make this a playable underdog. I mean, we all saw that Abu Almabaev is no joke in his last fight, but the submission loss for Ode in that fight was just a lapse in judgment that let the superior grappler go to work. Same goes for the strikers he’s lost too in Nam and Kape. Ode looks good enough to beat these guys, there are just lapses.

Then we go to Filho. This man absolutely has it when it comes to the ground. His last submission win in the first round shows that, and no one could forget that Mokaev kneebar that almost split his leg in two. Filho stays dangerous through all three rounds of the fight, and he does not go to decision (hasn’t gone to decision since 2014).

As long as Filho doesn’t get slept early, this play wins. And Filho can take a punch – the man doesn’t have a KO loss in his career.

So those are the bets people! Make sure to toss a follow on X @plusmoneypost if you liked the analysis.

Summary of Picks