UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Imavov - Five Best Bets

Okay ladies and gents. After a pretty stellar week with UFC 302 last week (+3.88u), we’re looking to continue the heater on a very tightly-matched FN card. What a show we have this weekend with 14 fights lined up on the card; and let me tell you, there are no gimmes to be had. Every fight could reasonably have either guy/gal win, and even though there are some steep odds out there, those odds are on guys/gals likely to go the distance – and you don’t want to be on the wrong side of two Dave Tirellis do you?

Dave Tirelli should never ever have anything to do with MMA ever again pic.twitter.com/AXFMvOcSzt
— Stefan Struve (@StefanStruve) June 2, 2024

That’s why we’re lasered in on some pretty good dog plays – while also stacking on a few favourites with the clearest path to a clean win. It’s a difficult balancing act on a card like this – and my units will reflect that due to the volatility. Nonetheless, we have the chance to cash on some nice plus-money lines, and with the unpredictability of the fight game, that often means a profitable night. So, we start with the main event, where the disrespect for the vet is just too much to stand idly and let the opportunity pass us by.

*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.

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Fight: Jared Cannonier vs Nassourdine Imavov

Pick: Jared Cannonier Moneyline (+100) 1u

That’s right – the dog hunting starts early (or late I guess, with this being the main event). Regardless, there’s a lot of stock being put into layoffs, injuries, and age when it’s clear who the better fighter is based on previous performance. The only reasons you’re getting plus-money on Cannonier in this spot are: (a) he’s 40 years old, (b) he tore his MCL and had to ditch out of his last fight, and (c) he’s been off for two years. And these all register on the concern-meter for me, don’t get me wrong. But the opponent he’s up against here does not deserve the 50-50 line that the bookies are throwing out there – and you don’t have to look too far to determine that.

Let’s take a look at the man-on-the-rise, Imavov, who just came off a five-round decision win against Roman Dolidze. A good win on paper, no doubt about it. But if you watched the fight …. how much credit can you really give him? I mean sure, he wore Dolidze out, which made Roman turn to a human gas-tank later in the fight, but Imavov looked quite gassed as well. It was just a messy fight, with subpar cardio and lack-of-skill shown on both sides. Before that, Imavov took on a similar-in-competition (to Cannonier) Sean Strickland. Sean is a tricky fight for anyone (well, maybe not Cannonier, because he beat Strickland), but Imavov was just not on his level. Strickshow had two scorecards at 4-0 and one at 3-1 going into the fifth round, where he took his foot off the pedal. And the Imavov vs Curtis fight – another mess with the headbutt BS.

Cannonier is ageing, with quite a bit of tread on the tires and a body that’s starting to break down when pushed too far. But by all accounts, he’s healthy enough to fight just like he has fought prior to this, and his most recent fights against the best-in-the-world at 185 (Strickland, Vettori) show he’s still a top 5 guy in the weight class. His volume is insane (241 significant strikes in his most recent fight vs Vettori), his gas tank has never failed him, and the power he brings with his combinations is enough to make me stay away from a decision prop. Seems pretty easy to me, especially for a guy that obviously takes care of himself based on the god-like physique he has.

Fight: Brunno Ferreira vs Dustin Stoltzfus

Pick: Dustin Stoltzfus Moneyline (+225) 0.4u

Pick: Dustin Stoltzfus Moneyline + Over 1.5 Rounds (+400) 0.1u

I said before we’d be hunting dog-money, and here’s the best example of that. Stoltzfus is a prime example of dogs I like taking chances on: good cardio, decent striking, decent wrestling, good chin, and decent jiu-jitsu. A jack-of-all trades, he can get it done anywhere. His line would be so much better with an easier strength-of-schedule – but even with tough match-ups, Stoltzy has performed.

Sure, he gets straight-up beat by guys like Daukus and Abus Magomedov. That’s expected with prospects with complete games that are ascending the rankings. But the fights against Rodolfo Vierra and Meershaerdt-my-pants are different stories. These two guys are potent jiu-jitsu artists, with a stupid amount of combined finishes via sub. And Stoltzfus hangs with them. Not only hangs with them, but was beating both of them after 7:30 minutes, and he looked on his way to two solid wins. Then … gets jiu-jitsued out of pants and gets subbed by both guys on some great grappling exchanges. So while he has four losses in the UFC, those losses have come against the class of the division (and two should have really been wins if he wasn’t facing jiu-jitsu wiz’s). Brunno is certainly not that.

Ferreira isn’t even a big submission guy (which is the only area Stoltzfus loses fights by finish). He’s a power puncher that also likes to get guys down so he can wail on them. And he’s been successful, with all of his wins practically coming under 1.5 Rounds into the fight. But I don’t think his takedown defence is all that good, and with his aggression early (being the shorter fighter with the smaller reach, he’s going to have to come forward) – that’s where Dustin can exploit Ferreira. If he can wear Brunno down for the first 7:30 of the fight with takedowns, I don’t see him losing with his superior gas tank and more balanced skillset.

Rock with me on this dog, and toss a sprinkle on that same-fight-parlay of Stoltzfus + Over 1.5 Rounds. If Dusty is winning, it likely isn’t an early finish. I could see something similar to the Dusty vs Puna fight, where Dustin weathered the early storm and subbed Puna in the second round. Regardless, it might take a while, but Stoltzy is pulling this one out.

Fight: Miguel Baeza vs Punahele Soriano

Pick: Miguel Baeza Moneyline + Over 1.5 Rounds (+175) 0.5u

Speaking of Puna – he’s got a win-or-get-cut fight here against the rested Baeza – and I don’t like his chances of earning a dub and re-signing.

Puna went on a nasty streak where he was KO’ing every guy he faced at 185 in the first round. It was nice, and he has real power, considering he’s now going down to 170 for this one. He didn’t have the frame for 185; and he was exposed by guys like Kopylov, Allen, and Stoltzfus – pretty good all-around fighters. The crux of the situation is: Puna has some of the worst takedown defence I’ve seen, against guys with even average offensive wrestling. And if you start wrestling with him, he gets gassed and his hands drop, leaving him open to melon-rockets from his opponents (just look at the Kopylov KO). He’s peak “puncher’s chance” – but he ain’t Derrick Lewis. At the higher skill-levels of 170, he doesn’t stand a chance.

And fair enough, maybe Baeza isn’t the creme-de-la-creme of 170. But he’s young and he’s taken quite a bit of time off (presumably to round out his grappling game with numerous grappling tournament appearances after two nasty KO losses because he got stuck on the feet). Don’t get me wrong, his striking isn’t bad, and he was sparking guys prior to moving up in competition. But with his decent jiu-jitsu base, added to the inevitable grappling (both wrestling and jiu-jitsu) progression he’s made with this time off – he would be the dumbest dumb-dumb in the world not to implement some grappling in the gameplan. With Puna’s history facing this kind of game-plan …. he really is just hoping for a first round KO or bust.

Baeza may be chinny based on his last few KO losses, but as I said above – he couldn’t switch-up the gameplan at that point to implement more grappling (both because he didn’t possess the skills and was facing guys with good TD defence in Khaos Williams and Fialho). With Puna, even a below-average wrestler can get takedowns. That’s why I feel so good about Baeza here.

The path to plus-money is adding the Over 1.5 Rounds, which is pretty juicy for a couple reasons. Puna is durable for the first round and the first part of the second round – then he hits the gas-tank wall. He’s never been finished Under 1.5 Rounds from what I can see. The other part of the equation is going to be Baeza’s gameplan, which should include at least some grappling and one dump-down of Puna. He’s not super proficient at finishing from the ground from what we’ve seen – but then again, he never has really taken fights to the ground. Nonetheless, I trust Puna to survive Over 1.5 Rounds when he did the same thing against Brendan Allen.

Fight: Eduarda Moura vs Denise Gomes

Pick: Eduarda Moura Moneyline (-188) 1.5u

I know, I know, not a very juicy line with 1.5u paying out .8u of profit. But this is easily my most confident lean of the card – the only things stopping this from being a max-play are two-fold: it’s a women’s fight and both fighter’s lack sufficient tape. Nonetheless, from what I’ve seen, Denise doesn’t hold a candle to Moura – and I’m surprised this isn’t more like -250.

Denise is just …. not that good. She’s very small for the weight class (5’ 2’’) and doesn’t cut much weight. She also has horrific wrestling and grappling, as she was dominated in the department by both Loukboumme and Angela Hill (two predominant strikers). Why are those two points important?

Well, Moura is huge for the weight, and she cuts a ton of it to get down to 115 lbs (actually missed weight recently). So, she’s a weight-bully against a smaller fighter that loves to give up TD’s. Moura’s speciality: grapple-fucking her opponents. She takes down her opponents with ease, and while she hasn’t had to show great cardio (longest fight ended halfway through the second round), she sure hasn’t slowed down as the fight goes on.

Now, with the fact that Moura is finishing everyone lately considered, some might ask why I’m not playing the Moura Finish prop. Well, it’s because I made a rule long ago that I would never bite on a womans’ fight to finish; and I’m sticking with it. The ball’s in your court if you want to take the finish, but I love Moura here.

Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.