UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs Borralho: Best Bets and Predictions

We’re back in the saddle again folks. We’ve got a mediocre Apex offering on deck, with some very “meh” fighters to go along with a pretty decent main event. I can’t lie – these Fight Night cards are tougher to read for me than the pay-per-views. There seems to be more volatility with less experienced fighters & lower skill levels, making some of the predictions very difficult. The thing with a card like that is: there’s going to be some ripe underdog opportunities.

Last week was a bit of a tough one, where we missed out on a profitable night because the judges favoured Hooker’s takedown defence and damage over Gamrot’s control and volume. While I had it going to Gamrot (as did one of the judges scoring the fight), it didn’t break our way. The good thing is – we’ve still got some profit to play around with from previous PPV wins.

Wow – #UFC305 was a wild night of fights🥊🧨

For as crazy as everything was – I still thought we should have had that Gamrot decision – would have made it a profitable night👎

Alas – that's #MMA – and as always, we managed the bankroll so the slight loss didn't hurt🙂 Back 🔜 https://t.co/GUf88b8rcY pic.twitter.com/kuTNRqYA5Z
— Plus Money J (@PlusMoneyPost) August 20, 2024

As I stated above – the underdogs are going to be barking tonight. This article will be a different style than most we do, as we’re usually about 2.5 units deep on a night, looking to gain value with same-fight-parlays (i.e. Fighter “A” To Win + Fight Goes Over 1.5 Rounds) where the favourite seems to have a great chance at winning by a certain method. This time – we’re taking a $100 dollar bankroll (1 unit) and peppering the board with absurd outcomes. With such an unpredictable set of fights, I’m guessing at least 2 very unlikely results hit tonight. If we hit 1 of our 5 picks, we’ll be breaking-even due to the plus-money value we’re getting. If we hit 2 out of 5 picks – we’re making some good money. Don’t get fooled by those “pro bettors” who boast their win-loss record on bets – as the real bettors know you don’t have to have a winning record to be a winning bettor.

With all of that said, let’s get to the picks, starting with the main event.

*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.

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UFC Fight Night Best Bets:

Fight: Jared Cannonier vs Caio Borralho

Pick: Jared Cannonier Moneyline + Over 2.5 Rounds (+300) 0.25u Bet365

Hand up – I was on Cannonier last time out when he got folded by Imavov. While I thought that fight could’ve kept going – those kinds of stoppages happen all the time, so I’ll eat crow. The thing is – this time out, the Killa Gorilla has a different test on his hands – one which should be much easier for him at this point in his career.

Jared is getting old, and he may have lost a slight step based on his last performance. However, last time out, he was coming off significant knee surgeries and a lengthy layoff. This time out, the knees should be somewhat better due to increased strengthening following more time off, and “ring rust” will be minimal after getting back in there with Imavov.

When I say Jared is losing a step – it’s really not that big of a concern considering this matchup. I’m saying he’s “lost a step” from being a world title challenger with a stranglehold on a Top 5 spot. He’s still a Top 10 fighter at this point, and he’s the perfect gatekeeper to test Borralho here.

Caio is a good fighter, coming from one of the best fight camps in the world in the Fighting Nerds out of Brazil. The thing is – he is so much different than Imavov. Where Imavov pours on the volume with dangerous strikes, Caio is much more selective, with grappling & control being his easiest path to victory. While I could see Caio getting a takedown or two against Jared, Cannonier’s get-up game is one of the best at 185, and as time goes on (and the guys’ start to sweat), the Killa Gorilla will have an easier time stuffing the takedowns.

Overall – this is how I see this one going: Caio gets 1 or 2 rounds initially, using his grappling/control with some unique striking to narrowly edge Cannonier. From there, Caio will no longer be able to take (and keep) Cannonier down, leading to a fight on the feet. Cannonier should mix in clinch-work with lunging combinations to either win on the scorecards, or get a late finish. Sounds simple, right?

Fight: Neil Magny vs Michael Morales

Pick: Neil Magny Win by Decision (+800) 0.15u Bet365

This is a classic “gatekeeper vs rising contender” matchup with Magny seemingly being fed to the wolves after an impressive comeback win over Mike Mallott (who really needs some work on his gas tank).

I’ll be straight up with you – I think Morales wins. The thing is – he’s priced like a favourite that should win this fight more than 80% of the time. That, I do not agree with. I think he only has a slight edge, and let me tell you why.

Morales just hasn’t looked impressive to me at all. His last fight against a pretty average fighter in Jake Matthews was much closer than it should have been (as he was priced at over -300). Prior to that, he put up another mediocre performance against a below-average fighter in Max Griffin, squeaking out the decision win (again, priced as a significant favourite at -250). He should have been owning these guys – but the fights played out much closer.

That’s the perfect setup for a Magny upset. While Neil is definitely not the fighter he once was, he’s still got the “crafty veteran” tricks up his sleeve that he can spring on these young guys. His grappling should slow Morales down, and with significant clinch time and a couple takedowns, this could easily be a split decision where each betting side is biting their nails. I’d rather be the one with a +800 ticket vs those going with Morales by decision at -110.

Fight: Edmen Shahbazyan vs Gerald Meerschaert

Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan Win by Submission (+800) 0.1u Bet365

I know – this one’s pretty wacky. I just see good value here – even with the perceived grappling advantage for Gerald in this one.

Why is that? Two reasons: 1) Edmen will likely chin-check GM3 at some point, and what’s to say he doesn’t jump a sub if the ground and pound isn’t getting things done, and 2) Edmen should be much stronger than GM3 with his youth and solid frame.

There’s a reason this line is +800: GM3 hasn’t been subbed since 2018 (when Jack Hermansson caught him in the gilly), and Edmen hasn’t gotten a sub since 2019 against the troll that is Jack Marshman. The fact still remains – GM3 has succumbed to a UFC fighter in the grappling department prior to this, and as long as Edmen doesn’t slump him with a walkoff KO, he should have a chance to snatch a choke with a disoriented GM3.

Many will ask “why would Edmen even try to grapple if he puts GM3 down?” Well, Edmen actually isn’t too bad when it comes to grappling, where he averages 2.4 TD’s per 15 minutes. I don’t think he’ll be lost on the ground – and it may even be preferred so he can conserve his gas tank (this is all contingent on GM3 surviving ground and pound of course).

It’s not a very confident bet – but it can happen, and it has immense upside. Why not take the shot, and if you really want something safer, take the Edmen Moneyline + Under 1.5 Rounds (+115). I’m just value hunting this week and avoiding apple-pie shitters.

Fight: Zachary Reese vs Jose Medina

Pick: Zachary Reese Win by Decision (+650) 0.25u Bet365

It’s really as simple as this: Reese has only beaten tomato cans (always in the 1st round btw) and Medina has a chin on him. Not much more needs to be said – but I’ll say a little more, because why the fuck not.

Reese is explosive as they come – but Julian Marquez (Reese’s last fight that he finished in 20 seconds) seems more like Mr. Potato Head at this point in his career, with his body breaking down constantly. The freak loss to Brundage is impossible to glean anything from, as usually a guy that attempts the powerbomb while in a triangle actually goes deeper into the triangle. Before those two fights? He KO’d a bunch of bums. How can you trust those results?

Medina may be lacking in almost any MMA skill imaginable – but he still took his Contender Series fight to a decision priced as a +500 favourite. The guy can survive, and “fighting spirit” can go a long way when facing a guy like Reese that’s never made it past the 1st round.

I cashed big last week on a similar setup (Tom Nolan winning by decision at +3000 when he was a -800 favourite), so let’s roll the dice again.

Fight: Viacheslav Borshchev vs James Llontop

Pick: Viacheslav Borshchev Win Round 2 (+600) 0.15u and Round 3 (+1000) 0.1u Bet365

Borshchev is a bad fighter if his matchup has any semblance of wrestling. Good thing Llontop does not.

If it’s a pure striking battle, we’ve seen Slava Clause have some great performances. Truth be told – that was the case for his only two wins in the UFC. And would you look at that: 2 finishes in those fights, including 1 that was in Round 2. If Slava Clause is able to utilize his technical striking (he was previously a striking coach for Alpha Male), expect a route.

James Llontop has never been knocked out – but he’s never fought close to the same quality of striker that he’s taking on in this matchup. I have no doubt he has a decent chin based on his previous fights – but things will start getting out-of-hand on the feet as the fight goes on.

Guys have great chins – until they don’t. It only takes one massacre on the feet to get that stoppage loss – so why not take it here, with one of the best pure strikers at 155 outside the top 15.

Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NFL and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.