UFC 299 Bets: Stellar Main Card with Value

Ittttttttt’s Timeeeeeee. What better time could there be for me to start providing my UFC betting analysis to the public. UFC 299 is absolutely stacked to the gills, so much so that I can find enough value on the main card alone to fill my card.

While this is my first post on this site, I have been in love with betting the UFC ever since I hit big on an underdog on my first fight card, betting Gaethje over Ferguson (and seeing an absolute melting by my boy Gaethje). Ever since then, I don’t think I’ve missed more than a handful of cards (including fight nights), and I have had at least a few bets on each event I’ve watched. I’m not proclaiming guaranteed winners every time here, the sport is volatile and shit happens. But with this much experience, I think there’s a possibility I’ve picked up a few things, and these bets are some of my most confident in a while. Without further ado, let’s start with the main event.

*All bets will be posted beside the pick. This will be based on one unit being equal to $100. So a $250 bet is 2.5 units.

Main Event: “Suga” Sean O’Malley v Marlon “Chito” Vera

Pick: O’Malley

Bet: $200 (2u) – O’Malley ML + Over 2.5 Rounds at -138

To Win: $345.45

I know, I know, Chito’s tough. The guy has rocks in his hands, and his kicks are devastating (just ask Frankie or Cruz). But let’s just take a trip down memory lane with his last few performances. The win over Cruz, all three judges had it 2-1 Cruz heading into the 4th before the head kick KO. Fair enough, Chito is just a slow starter. Then comes Sandhagen, the absolute most despicable split decision I have seen in recent memory (Cory clearly won the fight handily, as was evidenced by the 193-71 strike differential, the three takedowns to zero, and the two other judges scoring it 50-45 and 49-46). So right there, without the wack-job scorecard, Chito gets dominated by Sandhagen. There is no doubting the similarities between Sandhagen and O’Malley (both long, technical strikers with constant stance changes and good kicks), though Sandhagen does implement his wrestling as well, which helped in the fight against Vera. Nevertheless, we go to Chito’s most recent fight against Pedro Munhoz. After rewatching this fight, I couldn’t believe how close it was compared to the 30-27, 30-27, 29-28 scorecards the judges handed in. I’m looking at the twitter scores after round 2 and almost everyone has it 2-0 Munhoz! I had it 1-1, but still, this is much too close a fight against a striker that’s not on the same level as O’Malley (no disrespect to Munhoz, his striking is actually pretty deadly).

Then we look at O’Malley. The feints are insane, the length (and the use of the length effectively) is nuts, and one doesn’t have to look further than the Petr Yan fight to show this guy has stones. For my money, Petr Yan is the fourth best BW in the division right now (third best if Aljo is gone to 145). The guy is just a beast, grappling or striking, he has the juice. But you see O’Malley go against him, eat that absolute rocket launcher switch stance left hand in the 2nd, only to come back out in the 3rd and make it a super competitive, close fight. That was all I needed to see. I didn’t even score it for O’Malley initially, but watching it now, it looks a lot closer to a 50-50 fight. It also doesn’t hurt that O’Malley sparked Aljo in a fight where he couldn’t grapple for six weeks prior to the fight due to an injury.

And I know, we have seen these guys face off before in the highly disappointing “Peroneal Nerve Bowl” and O’Malley went down. If this shit happens again, I will eat an actual crow, but all I see happening in this fight is a repeat of the Munhoz performance for Vera, but against a striker who will keep him frozen with feints, making it a lock for O’Malley winning the first two rounds (if not the first three). From there, Chito may find some success, but I still see O’Malley winning this fight, whether it be on the scorecards or via a late stoppage. Seeing as Chito hasn’t ever been stopped (or cut for that matter), I’m visualizing a decision. It’s more than fair to bet the decision prop here, I’m just playing it safe with the +2.5 rounds to almost get to pick em’ prices (mostly because the fight game might just be the most unpredictable sport there is).

Fight: Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland v MVP (Michael “Venom” Page)

Pick: Holland

Bet: $150 (1.5u) – Holland ML at -138

To Win: $259.09

OOOOOOEEEEEE I thought this line was going to be a lot further apart. No disrespect to MVP, this guy was a very explosive and dangerous striker. When I saw him cave-in Cyborg’s skull with that knee, I thought this man was the scariest striker I had ever seen. And MVP had an amazing run in Bellator, no doubt becoming one of their biggest stars. I thought this man could make a real push in the UFC. Then ……. the last two years happened. The Storley loss in Bellator was just disappointing, though I would say that he actually should have won the fight on the scorecards (especially with the recent emphasis in the UFC on damage over control). Even though MVP may have been more careful because of the threat of a Storley takedown, the striking just didn’t look as dynamic, and some of that “pop” looked to be gone on his shots (just the way I saw it). Then, my mans lost to Mike Perry in Bareknuckle. Perry is my boy, and a beast with his hands, but you can’t be losing to him in any kind of combat sport if you want to stand a chance against the top 15 in the UFC at this point. You just can’t. Credit where credit is due, he did separate a man’s patella from the tendon in his last fight. But this was against a guy ranked as the #47 Welterweight in the world according to Tapology, and seemed like more of a freak injury than anything.

Then, we get to Big Mouth, Kevin Holland. Though I got sick of his schtick after a while (probably around his fight with Brunson), it seems like Holland has kind of turned the page here. Although he may still bark a little in the cage, there is no denying he has a little more focus, and much better fights over his last few. Losing to Khamzat on short notice will never look bad, Kev is a company man. Same goes for the Wonderboy fight where his hand was shot to bits. Then we get the Ponzinibbio knockout. Ponzi-scheme has some hands and some dynamite, but Kev just used the distance so well. His defence was on point, he used his outside striking to perfection, stayed patient, and came through with that leaping left hook from God. We even got to see his patented creativity on display with the backfist in the first round that dropped Ponzi. The Chiesa fight is whatever to me, Chiesa looked like he should’ve probably hung ‘em up prior to that fight. But the Jack Della fight, Holland’s most recent fight, shows that Big Mouth has what he needs for a W against MVP. Jack Della is fighting Durinho Burns on this card in a spot where he could earn the status of true championship contender at Welterweight if he wins (though I lean Burns in this fight due to the probable grapple-fuck coming from him, as he did to Wonderboy). This shows what the UFC thinks of Jack Della. Holland went tit for tat with this guy, in a very close split decision where each man had his moments. If this didn’t show that Holland can hang with the top 10 in the division (to me Jack Della is a top 10 WW even though he is currently at 11 in the official ranks), I don’t know what would.

Now, if I put up a 36-year-old MVP against any top 10 WW in the UFC, would you have it as a close to pick ‘em line? I just don’t see it. I see Holland as more of a -185 here, and I think you are getting value due to the name MVP has earned through his career. The same thing happened when Holland fought Jacare (I am aware MVP is likely still more dangerous at this point in time compared to Jacare at that point in time). I just see a striking affair at distance, where Kev outlands him, likely winning a decision. If you have the cajones to bet the decision prop, good on you, but I’m going with the -138 ML.

Fight: Petr “No Mercy” Yan v Song Yadong

Pick: Yan

Bet: $250 (2.5u) – Petr Yan ML at -125

To Win: $450.00

This is just another one where the line seems out of pocket for me. I’m seeing Yan as similar to Holland, where he should be about -185.

Song is a young, explosive fighter with fast hands and nasty deception. I recently saw Sandhagen say that Yadong hit him with the best hook he’s seen to this point in the octagon. Coming from a striker with the experience of Sandhagen, that’s significant. I mention Sandhagen for a reason though. Sandhagen finished Song in the 4th round due to a cut above Yadong’s eye about a year and a half ago (happened on a headbutt in the 2nd round). Sandhagen was only officially 1/14 on takedown attempts, but he mixed in his striking extremely well, laying elbows when breaking the clinch like a motherfucker. You could see as early as Rd 1 Song become extremely reactive to takedown feints. Now Song did have his moments in this fight, and he has POWER. You also have to take into account Yadong was compromised from the 2nd round on due to the cut. The point still remains, as the fight went on, Sandhagen became more and more comfortable. He was controlling the fight and using the takedown shots to stunt Song’s forward pressure. While two judges had it 38-38 after the 4th (one had it 39-37 Sandhagen), based on the way the fight was going, this was Sandhagens’ dub.

In Song’s last fight, he faced Gutierrez, a potent striker with leg-breaking kicks. Gutierrez …… not even close to the quality of opponent that Yan is. And the styles are so different. Gutierrez is not grappling, unless he is pulling out some shitbird leg locks from imanari rolls. Yan is well rounded, with much better boxing, and a motor that just keeps running. And against Gutierrez, Song was …. way different than the Sandhagen fight (for the worse). That could be because that was the game plan against Gutierrez, but if he would’ve brought the same pressure he did against Cory, he would’ve finished Gutierrez. He was playing it safe.

Song has a high guard, and in that Sandhagen fight, it looked like the hooks Sandhagen landed to the body were hard and clean. Yan kills the body with his top level boxing, as is evidenced by his fight against Sandhagen (27/29 on body strikes) and Aljo (17/18 on body strikes). I would’ve liked 5 rounds better for this fight, but if Yan implements the same game plan as Sandhagen against Yadong, with takedowns and clinch strikes, mixed with nasty boxing and body shots, this is a UD win for Yan. Especially if Yadong comes out like he did against Gutierrez. Again, bet the decision if you want to let ‘em hang out like Derrick Lewis, but I’m going moneyline at -125.

While I like some other bets on the card (even other bets on the main card), these are the ones I will be playing, as I have learned over the years that betting on every fight just because you want the action makes turning a profit over the long run difficult. With that said, if you want a little main card filthy parlay to wet your beak, I would go:

O’Malley ML + Poirier ML + Holland ML + Burns ML + Yan ML – +2532

$10 (0.1u) to win $313.94

Now let’s enjoy one of the best cards these eyes have ever seen.

Bet Summary: