Welcome back people! With March Madness coming to an end soon, it is time to go full puck and get into the NHL mix. This week has an amazing slate of matchups, where we’ll have plenty of chances to find edges with the high volume of games. We’re getting into playoff-mode, and the teams are starting to buckle down and do the same.
For Tuesday, I have one confident lean on a game and four decent little shots-on-goal (SOG) player props that can go a long way. We won both SOG player props last night, so let’s keep er’ goin on that front. But let’s start with the game pick, where I see my Devils (I’ll admit, I am a fan of this disappointing franchise) against the Pens.
*Units for me will be $50, bet responsibly
Game 1: New Jersey Devils vs Pittsburgh Penguins, 5:00 p.m. CST
Pick: New Jersey Devils 3-Way ML (Regulation Time) +105 (2u)
That’s right, I’m taking the Devils to win this game. And if you’re anything like me, you try to avoid betting on your favourite team because you always seem to curse them when you do. But regardless of who was playing the Pens here, I was gonna take the opposite side because of the spot Pittsburgh is in. The fact that I get to bet on the Devils is just a little case of something I like to call fate.
It’s a fact that teams do not play well on back-to-backs. Per NHLTips.ca, there’s an average of a 5% downgrade in win probability. It gets worse when the team is on a back-to-back on the road. It’s like a man going for Round Two in the bedroom. Sure, he can do it, but it’s not going to be better than average, and it won’t be better than the first time. That is the case here with the Pens. They beat a good Rangers team last night, so I’d say they are prime for a let-down spot. They’re also likely playing Jarry in net tonight, who is worse statistically than Nedelkovic, who played last night. Oh yeah, and they’ve only won 5 of their last 10 games.
Then you go to New Jersey, coming off some good rest after playing last Friday. They also should be hungry, as they lost on Friday to a very mid Buffalo team. While New Jersey has only won 5 of their last 10, one of those wins was against the Pens, and the other four were against some pretty decent teams. This Devils team plays up to the competition, and Pittsburgh is just good enough to push New Jersey to attack. Add in the fact that New Jersey is the healthiest it’s been all year, and we have a bet.
Pick: Sidney Crosby (Let’s go Sid the Kid) Over 3.5 SOG +110 (0.5u)
The stats just add up for this one. Pittsburgh has the 5th most shots on goal this season. New Jersey gives up a moderate amount of shots at 17th in the League. Rubber should hit the net.
Then we look at Crosby’s past few games: 4, 4, 3, 2, and 5 SOG. He consistently gets the puck through. This line is sitting at plus money and it’s something he’s done in 3 of his last 5 games. Added to that, I think the team will rely more on Sid in the back-to-back because the man has been doing this at such a high level for such a long time. With New Jersey likely being up in this game …. the recipe is there for Crosby to hit 6 or 7 shots.
Game 2: Florida Panthers vs Montreal Canadiens, 5:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Matthew Tkachuk Over 3.5 SOG +110 (0.5u)
I hate betting on these Tkachuk boys. I’m sure I would love em’ if they were on my team, but they can get me irate when my team is playing against them. Nonetheless, betting is about leaving the heart out of it, and the math adds up for this one. On top of that, Tkachuk can be a dominant player when engaged, and it seems he is locked in recently on a push to the Stanley Cup.
Florida will get their shots, ranking 10th in the league. And Montreal is no stranger to getting pelted, giving up the 8th most shots. The two most consistent shooters on Florida recently: Tkachuk and Reinhart. Tkachuk with 4, 3, and 4 shots in his last three games, Reinhart with 3, 4, and 5 shots. I like Reinhart’s line at 2.5, but it’s -180. I am more comfortable taking the leap with Tkachuk to get 4 shots at plus money, as he’s averaging 3.46 shots-per-game (SPG) on the year, and I feel that he’ll be able to control this young, small Montreal team.
Lock it in champs.
Pick: Cole Caufield Under 3.5 SOG -150 (1u)
That’s right, we aren’t stopping with just one prop in this game. I think Caufield gets shut down by this imposing, physical Florida team. Add to that Caufield’s recent performance with SOG, and you can see why this line looks so good.
In Caufield’s last six games, he only had Over 3.5 shots two times. Those two times, he had 4 shots. The other 4 games: 2, 1, 1, and 2 shots. That’s just low volume, and the fact that the sportsbooks are putting this much stock into him getting four shots against a team very good at preventing SOG (2nd best in the league in shots allowed) is just wild to me.
Double Double baby.
Game 3: Washington Capitals vs Buffalo Sabres, 5:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Max Pacioretty Under 2.5 SOG -160 (1u)
Back in the day, I’d usually be taking Patches’ Over on SOG. He was a stud for a while, putting up 30 goals a season like it was child’s play. While he was rank, I think he’s falling off a bit, and this is a bad spot for him.
Buffalo doesn’t like to give up shots (8th best at preventing shots) and Washington doesn’t like to shoot (32nd in shots this year). I definitely don’t expect the Caps to break 30 shots this game.
Then, we get to Patches. 2.02 SPG on the season, with 2, 3, 1, 0, 1, and 1 SOG in his last six games. And they have this line at 2.5?! I don’t get it. His season average is much lower, and he has missed the line in five of his last six games. This one is cash-money.
Well that’s it people. I will be posting an article soon with picks for the UFC Fight Night this upcoming weekend, as well as another article on Final Four picks for March Madness. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Game 1: New Jersey Devils vs Pittsburgh Penguins, 5:00 p.m. CST
Pick: New Jersey Devils 3-Way ML (Regulation Time) +105 (2u)
Pick: Sidney Crosby Over 3.5 SOG +110 (0.5u)
Game 2: Florida Panthers vs Montreal Canadiens, 5:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Matthew Tkachuk Over 3.5 SOG +110 (0.5u)
Pick: Cole Caufield Under 3.5 SOG -150 (1u)
Game 3: Washington Capitals vs Buffalo Sabres, 5:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Max Pacioretty Under 2.5 SOG -160 (1u)