NHL Best Bets: Game Pick, Total Picks, and Player Props for April 15, 2024

The regular season is almost done degens! And what a regular season it has been. Four legit MVP candidates, intensity and fighting ramping up, and a dead-heat playoff race in the East. While teams may only have one or two games left in the season, there is still a lot to play for. Therefore, we bet.

I have a couple picks I’m really liking tonight. Tampa seems poised to blow the doors off Buffalo, multiple games expect to be tight checking and low scoring, and a few shots-on-goal player props look absolutely prime. I will be getting to a Playoff Preview with futures and playoff pool analysis later this week, but let’s get back to the present, starting with the Bolts and Kuchy ripping Buffalo a new one.

*Units for me will be $100 bets. Bet responsibly.

Games will be listed below in order from highest unit bet to lowest unit bet.

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Game: Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning, 5:00 p.m. CST

Pick: Tampa Bay 3-Way (Regulation Time) Moneyline -105 (2u)

Oooooo doggy, this is just a mismatch from the jump. I like the Sabres’ youth as much as the next guy, but I expect the firepower and experience of this Tampa team to light the scoreboard up tonight. A couple points why this is prime to be an ass-kicking:

Eric Comrie is projected to start in net tonight for Buffalo. The Sabres have been riding Luukonen late into the season, and he’s been holding up reasonably well on a team that gives up significant scoring chances. Comrie on the other hand …. has not. Through his nine appearances on the year, he is 1-7 with a 3.91 GAA and .864 SV%. You’re telling me this guy is gonna backstop Buffalo to a win against an offence like the Lightning? Good luck pally.

While Vasilevskiy is just 1-2 in his last three games, and the Lightning are on a two game skid, the Bolts have only lost three games in a row twice all season. They like to bounce back after a couple L’s, and here they are at home in a prime bounce-back spot against a backup tendy.
Tampa seems more prone to lose to teams with good offences, as their goals-against-per-game is high, but so are their goals-for-per-game. Buffalo’s offence isn’t notorious for hitting twine with rubber, ranking in the bottom 10 of the NHL at 2.96 goals-for-per-game. I don’t think Buffalo keeps up in this spot when they have a leaky net on their end.

All of this adds up to my most confident bet of the night. Hammer this one and never look back, never think twice.

Game: Boston Bruins vs Washington Capitals, 5:00 p.m. CST

Pick: Under 5.5 Goals -110 (1u)

I know the line is set low at 5.5 goals in this game, but in reality, I don’t think it’s worth it to hit the Under 6.5 at -190. A game can be tied at 3 and that Over is guaranteed (3+3 always equals 7, shoutout Mr. Ice). Teams tied at 2? Well that’s 5 total goals, and we still hit baby. I know there is a lot of variance that still justifies these betting lines, but that’s how my stupid brain works.

But I’m not just telling you to be this Under on a whim. The data backs this one up. We have two of the better goalies in the League going at it, with one being expected in the upper echelon and the other being a huge surprise.

Everyone had a good idea Swayman would be deadly this year. Good defensive team in front of him, good support from Linus, and just overall good gameplay from a young tendy. He hasn’t disappointed, going 25-9-8 with a 2.56 GAA and .915 SV%. Couple that with his performances lately (allowed three or fewer goals in four of his last five games), and you can expect a brick wall standing in net for Boston.

But Charlie Lindgren for the Caps ….. I mean, “Randy Orton, RKO, out of nowhere!” with his season this year. 23-16-7 with 2.77 GAA and .909 SV% on a pretty average defensive team. He’s a huge reason the Caps are in the playoff race, and he’s allowed three or fewer goals in five straight games.

So Boston and Swayman have allowed three or fewer goals in 4/5 games and the Caps and Lindgren have allowed three or fewer goals in each of their last 5 games. This Under looks juicy, and I usually hate Unders. Let’s go.

Game: Ottawa Senators vs New York Rangers, 5:30 p.m. CST

Pick: Under 6.0 Goals +105 (1u)

Well, this is another one where two teams are playing strong defensive hockey late in the season. The goaltenders in this game are also hotter than a skillet left in the desert, so this is an obvious pick in my mind.

Ottawa was shit for the first half of the year, no doubt about it. Lately … they be turning that shit around! 11-8-1 in their last 20 games. I mean, not amazing ….. but better. Then we look at the tendy slated to start for the Sens tonight, Joonas Korpisalo. His numbers are hot garbage season-long, but he’s allowed two goals or fewer in three of his last four appearances. That’s stellar. I don’t know, maybe he finally got the timing of his pre-game shit locked in and the performances have followed. Whatever the case may be, the puck hasn’t gone in the net much lately when this man’s been out there in the crease.

We all know the situation with the Rangers and Shesty. Shesterkin is a god, and I am forever jealous as a New Jersey Devil fan that those bum Rangers get this guy to tend the net. He’s coming off a performance where he carried his team to a win, saving 34 of 36 shots, and has six straight games allowing three or fewer goals. What the hell are they feeding this guy?!

Lock the Under in. I feel like a pig taking two Unders, but these trends are undeniable, and we’re here for W’s only.

Game: New Jersey Devils vs New York Islanders, 5:00 p.m. CST

Pick: Matt Barzal Over 2.5 SOG -180 (0.5u)

The trends back this baby up as well, and I love watching me some Barzal in the offensive end. The guy’s a wizard, and lately he’s been pushing to get the offence going with good shots-on-goal totals.

4, 2, 5, 4, 2, 3, and 5 SOG in his last seven games. So 5/7 hit rate at this line. Pretty good. Add to that: this Devils team is on its last legs, with two key injuries and nothing significant to play for. Now add to that: NYI need one more dub to lock up a playoff spot.

Barzy’s gonna be flying to lead the team to a win and playoff berth, the Devils are gonna be planning their offseason golf schedule, and we’re gonna smash this Over. It all lines up folks.

Game: Minnesota Wild vs Los Angeles Kings, 7:30 p.m. CST

Pick: Ryan Hartman Over 2.5 SOG +100 (0.25u)

Hartman is a greasy player to bet on, but the SOG totals don’t lie. 4, 5, 1, 3, 3, 2, 5, 3, and 3 SOG in his last nine games. I mean, it looks rare for Hartman not to hit Over 2.5 SOG when his hit rate is 7/9 over that span.

And I know, LA can be stingy when it comes to allowing SOG. But just look at their situation in the standings right now. In all honesty, I think they’re looking for a way out of the 3rd spot in the Pacific to get into the Wild Card. To me, they match up a lot better with Dallas or Vancouver than they do Edmonton, and VGK is only one point behind them. I’m not going full conspiracy theory here, saying that they won’t give any effort …. but less effort could definitely be the case, and that would show up the most on the defensive end.

That’s why I’m expecting shots, shots, shots, shots, shots, shots, everybody.

Well that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with some more NHL picks and an NHL Playoff Preview. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.