And just like that – we only have three games left on the NFL schedule. After a Divisional Round that didn’t really hold a candle to the Wild Card slate (except for DEN vs BUF), we now have four teams left in the quest to hoist a Lombardi Trophy. The aforementioned Broncos and Bills game had all the drama one could ask for in a loser-goes-home matchup, where costly mistakes and devastating calls left the door open for Denver to advance (though it was at the cost of their starting QB with Bo Nix going down to an ankle injury). The Patriots and the Texans treated us to the most sloppy game of football we’ve seen all year, where each offence combined for 10 turnovers en route to Drake Maye getting the last laugh (and CJ Stroud becoming the biggest meme on X).
On the NFC side of things, the Seahawks had their matchup in the bag from the moment the ball was kicked off, where mid-season acquisition Rashid Shaheed returned the opening boot for a 95 yard touchdown. The injuries became too much for the Niners to deal with, but even with a healthy squad, it would’ve been very hard for the 49ers to muster any kind of offence against this stout Seattle defence. Brock Purdy was running for his life on the way to a 41-6 thumping that had everyone ready to turn the game off halfway through the 3rd quarter. Meanwhile, the Rams got themselves into a slobberknocker in the frozen tundra that was Soldier Field. Both defences showed up in big spots, and Caleb Williams’ game-tying 50 yard TD throw (that was only classified as a 14 yard short throw to the left) had the stadium rocking. Nevertheless, Ben Johnson uncharacteristically kicked the extra point instead of going for two and took the game to OT, where the Rams defence once again made a big play to set up the Rams for a game-winning field-goal. For such a low scoring game, it turned out to be very exciting, and it leads us to a Rams vs Seahawks matchup where the winner gets a chance to play for a Super Bowl.
That matchup will be the focus of our article, as we’ll run through the unit matchups (offence vs defence for each team) and end things off with a few props that look good based on the analysis.
We’re going to be posting articles like this weekly on X (for as long as the Rams’ playoff run continues), so follow us there is you want easier access to the content:
Without further ado, let’s get to the game.
Game: Los Angeles Rams (14-5) @ Seattle Seahawks (15-3) – Sunday, 6:30 PM EST
Notable LAR Injuries:
- OT Rob Havenstein (Possibly returning off IR)
- CB Akhello Witherspoon (IR)
- EDGE Byron Young (Questionable, LP on Fri, expected to play)
Notable SEA injuries:
- TE Elijah Arroyo (Likely returning off IR)
- OT Amari Kight (Doubtful, likely Out)
- RB Zach Charbonnet (IR)
- WR Tory Horton (IR)
Projected Temperature:
- Per rotowire.com: “Sunday night’s NFC Championship Game at Lumen Field will feature partly cloudy skies and cool temperatures. Some light rain is possible. Winds will remain relatively calm throughout the game.”
Game Lines:
- Seahawks -2.5, 46.5 O/U
It always seemed like it was destined to be Rams vs Seahawks Part III for a chance to go to the big dance, and I’m happy that it’s going to happen without many major pieces missing for either side. For the Rams, it looks like everyone should be a go for this one, as the two key pieces that were banged up (Forbes and BY) should be in the lineup after a week with limited practice to rest up. Additionally, the Rams OT depth could be in a good spot with Rob Havenstein finally getting back to practice after his stint on IR. It’s not like he was going to be the starter if he became active this week, so if he does end up missing another outing, it’s not the end of the world. On the Seahawks side of things, the only real concern comes with their LT position, but things changed on Friday with their starter (Charles Cross) logging a full practice after missing last week’s game. All told, we have a best-on-best matchup between two historically good teams in the NFC West.
So, with that in mind, let’s get to the Rams offence vs the Seahawks defence.
Los Angeles Rams Offence vs Seattle Seahawks Defence
Good Lord almighty – once again, the unstoppable force meets the immovable object. I know the Rams offence struggled last week against the Bears, but there were multiple things at play that led to this: (i) the weather was fucking atrocious, with both passing offences struggling in temperatures below freezing, (ii) Bears DC Dennis Allen had an amazing gameplan, scheming up exotic DB blitzes that had Stafford and Co. confused, and (iii) McVay had one of the worst gameplans of his tenure (which he willingly admitted in his post-game press conference), failing to take advantage of a successful run game and forcing Stafford to chuck a frozen pigskin at an absurd rate. I expect some major improvements this time around, especially when you look at Stafford’s relative success against SEA defensive playcaller Mike MacDonald:
Not the most absurd numbers (especially when it comes to completion percentage), but markedly better than almost any other QB that’s gone up against this defensive mastermind. Let’s start the analysis by looking at the Rams run game against the Seattle run defence.
In almost every game the Rams have played this year, the message has always been the same: commit to the run game early. It’s the key that unlocks so many other parts of this offence, and the OLine has done a tremendous job in the trenches this year, creating gaping holes for the steady duo of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. HOWEVER – it’s going to be difficult to commit to the run in this one with how deadly Seattle’s defence has been against opposing rush attacks.
You name the metric; the Seattle defence is Top 10 when it comes to stopping the run. 3rd in PFF rush defence grade, T-6th in rush yards allowed before contact, 1st in rush yards allowed per attempt, and 1st in EPA/rush. That’s absolutely stupid proficiency coming from the Seattle front-seven, a unit that’s led by All-World DE Demarcus Lawrence who has the 2nd highest PFF rush defence grade of all DLinemen who played 200+ snaps this year. That’s not even mentioning guys like ex-Rams LB Ernest Jones and DT Leonard Williams, guys who both grade out as above-average run-stoppers with speed/strength that not many fronts have. On the season, there were only two teams that had over 5 yards per carry on this unit in a game: the Cardinals in Week 10, and the Rams in Week 11.
Speaking about that Rams matchup in Week 11 (where they had 5.05 yards per carry), is there anything noticeable when comparing it to the Rams matchup in Week 16 (where they had 3.2 yards per carry)? The biggest difference I can see is two-fold: (i) Kyren had a rare explosive run in Week 11 (34 yarder), whereas neither back had over a 10 yard run in Week 16, and (ii) the Rams had more zone runs than man/gap runs in Week 11 (12 vs 8), whereas they evened out in Week 16 (19 vs 18). I’m thinking they stick with more zone runs in this one, as that’s where the Seahawks aren’t as steady (when compared to gap/man runs) as things get tough when going up against the strength SEA has on the interior (Byron Murphy and Leonard Williams are bonecrushers at DT).
End of the day – it should be a stalemate in the trenches. While the Seahawks boast one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL, this Rams OLine holds its own in the rankings when it comes to run blocking: 1st in PFF run blocking grade, 1st in rush yards before contact, 5th in rush stuff rate, 11th in EPA/rush, and T-9th in yards per carry. OG Kevin Dotson made his return last week, and holy shit did he make an impact. He led the team in rush blocking grade by a significant margin (graded as the highest run blocker of any OLineman last weekend), where this stud was paving the way for a rush attack that had over 100 yards against a decent Bears defence. And lest we forget, Dotson has been looking forward to this game for quite some time:
So with the trenches likely to be pretty even, it’s really going to come down to Kyren/Corum’s ability to generate yards after contact. The Seattle front is going to get home within a few yards of the line of scrimmage (if not at the line of scrimmage) – so it’s on both these backs to get things going with some broken tackles and chunk gains. Kyren has been average in this regard all year (coming in 17th in yards after contact per attempt out of 27 qualifying RBs), and Corum has been worse (more than a half yard per attempt worse than Kyren to be exact). If those guys aren’t gaining yards after getting hit, I’d expect a pretty low output of about 4.0 yards per carry en route to 20-25 rush attempts.
So while the Rams shouldn’t refrain from rushing the ball, it’s my belief that they should go with a gameplan that’s a lot more similar to last week vs Chicago, as I think they could catch this SEA defence off-guard by starting the game with more play-action and bootlegs (especially with a lack of inclement weather), then shifting to the run once their off balance.
And based on that Week 16 matchup vs Seattle, Stafford and Co. should be able to get that done. If you don’t remember, that game was an absolute shootout, where Stafford ended up with 457 passing yards, 3 passing TDs, and 0 turnovers (all without Davante Adams in the lineup). I think the key to this Rams passing game has to be found outside of 13 personnel (3 TEs, 1 WR), as their usual sparkling numbers in this setup were diminished in the two matchups they had vs SEA over the back half of the year (76 plays ran against SEA in 13 personnel: -0.26 EPA per play and 30% success rate; 67 plays ran out of other personnel packages: 0.22 EPA per play and 47% success rate). The Seahawks just refused to play base defence when the Rams shifted to 13 (something very few teams are capable of doing), lining up do-it-all nickel defender Nick Emmanwori as a “3rd Linebacker” which allowed the Seahawks to stay in nickel and dime. This was detrimental to TE success in each matchup these teams had. I would hope McVay uses about the same amount of 13 personnel as he used last week (a moderately low percentage of 13 personnel plays, as is evidenced by only 12 snaps for Davis Allen and 8 snaps for Tyler Higbee).
And we all know what SEA’s DBs will line up with when it comes to coverage: two high shells and heavy zone-usage, preventing any explosive plays while making it tough on QBs to find holes in the secondary. Thing is – that’s exactly how Staffoprd managed to light them up in their second matchup this year. The safeties drifted too far back, leaving a gap behind their LBs where Puka took advantage to the tune of 12 receptions, 225 yards, and 2 TDs. It seemed like any time the Rams had success in the pass game, it was Puka finding a soft spot in the zone 10+ yards downfield, between the numbers, right in front of the safeties. And this is exactly where Stafford had the advantage all year, as he was Top 5 in every passing metric imaginable when it came to throwing between the numbers. I’ll be interested to see if Mike MacDonald has his safeties playing more shallow to avoid intermediate gains on clear passing downs, as that could result in a few big plays happening downfield between Puka and Adams. It’s kind of a “pick-your-poison” with this Rams pass-attack, but in any event, I’d expect McVay to have plenty of intermediate zone-beaters on his play sheet for this one.
In sum, this aspect of the matchup is really more of a toss-up than either fan base would like to admit. The Seattle front could make every tackle in the run game and hold the line well for the majority of the game; the Rams OLine and Kyren/Corum could break off a few runs, relying on vision and strength from the RBs to form a consistent rushing attack. Mike MacDonald might tinker with his schemes to take away all the success Stafford + Puka had in Week 16; this could work and result in minimal passing success, or it might be met with more deep completions to the Rams nasty WR duo. It’d be really hard to see this Rams offence score less than 20 points in this one – but it would also be hard to see them scoring 30+ as they did in Week 16. I’d guess they’ll end up somewhere in the 20’s, with varied success running and passing on this historically good defence. If that’s the case – we’re going to need the Rams defence to step up yet again, as the key to the game is really on that side of the ball.
Seattle Seahawks Offence vs Los Angeles Rams Defence
After covering the #1 scoring offence vs the #1 scoring defence, this section might seem like more of an afterthought. However, in my mind, this is where the game will be won or lost, as the two matchups between these units over the Regular Season seemed relatively similar despite the Seahawks scoring 19 in Week 11 and 38 in Week 16:
- Week 11: Seattle has 414 total yards, 135 rush yards, and 4 TOs
- Week 16: Seattle has 415 total yards, 171 rush yards, and 3 TOs
So why were the scores so different when it came to each matchup? The answer is simple: red zone conversions, explosive run plays, and special teams. In Week 11, the Seahawks were 1/4 in the red zone, settling for 5 field goal attempts (and only converting on 4 of them) with minimal special teams impact and one explosive run. In Week 16, the script was flipped, and Seattle went 2/3 in the red zone and didn’t settle for any field goals. Not only that, but special teams played a huge part in the Rams loss (as it often does), with Shaheed sparking the Seahawks into motion after a huge punt return TD to go along with a 55 yard scamper by K9 for six.
This really makes all the difference, as I’d say the result comes down to those three things yet again. Let’s look first at this Seahawks rushing attack going up against a stout LAR run defence.
While the loss of Zach Charbonnet may seem to be a pretty big blow, it may actually help the Seahawks rushing attack to have him off the field when it comes to facing the Rams (as long as Walker stays healthy that is). In the two games Charbonnet/Walker have played against the Rams this season, here are the numbers:
- Week 11: Charbonnet has 37 rush yards on 11 rush attempts (3.4 yards per carry); Walker has 67 rush yards on 16 attempts (4.2 yards per carry)
- Week 16: Charbonnet has 32 rush yards on 9 rush attempts (3.6 yards per carry); Walker has 100 rush yards on 11 attempts (9.1 yards per carry)
It always seemed like the Rams finally exhaled once Charbonnet got the ball, as he doesn’t have the long-range speed that K9 does, limiting the chances of a big-time play materializing. As you can see below, while Walker may not be the most consistent runner, he is most definitely one of the most explosive RBs in the League, bar none:
This can even be apparent in the pass game, where Walker had a 46 yard catch-and-run early in that Week 16 to set the Seahawks up in the red zone. And while this Rams rush defence has been pretty damn solid this year (13th in EPA/rush, 2nd in PFF rush defence grade, 9th in yards before contact allowed per rush), they have shown a tendency to give up the explosive plays (18th in explosive play rate allowed). The goal is going to be simple: either meet Walker in the backfield before he has a chance to get going (which could be tough with the Rams ranking dead last in the NFL in rush stuff rate), or maintain outside contain on every play while stuffing up the middle with upper echelon run defender Poona Ford and the Landman/Speights combo. If the Rams defence can’t get that done, I would expect a performance similar to what K9 had last week:
A performance like that against the Rams would likely be the nail in the coffin, as it would allow the Seahawks to control the clock, keep Stafford off the field, and thrive with the under-center concepts where Darnold finds most of his success (Seahawks have the 2nd lowest shotgun alignment percentage in the NFL, just slightly ahead of the Rams who have the lowest). The Rams might get away with K9 breaking off one or two chunk runs, but any more than that and it will be lights out.
Moving on to the SEA passing game, it’s clear that their success through the air is intertwined with their ability to run the ball effectively (as I mentioned above). Darnold finally got some of the “Rams have you seeing ghosts” hate off his timeline after throwing for 270 yards and 2 TDs in Week 16. Thing is – he still had two picks in that game, and that came right after his four interception game against the Rams in Week 11. Not ideal, and this has been a running theme with Darnold on 14-3 teams when facing this defence:
If Seattle expects to win this one on the arm of Sam Darnold without anything else on offence/special teams showing up, it likely won’t end well for them. I’m a Darnold fan, as I think he had a real rough ride with the Jets and Panthers prior to finally finding his way with KOC in Minnesota. That being said, the guy will always have concerns with ball control and handling pressure (especially interior pressure). Things seem to be trending in the right direction for his LT spot (with starter Charles Cross back), but the Rams are coming off a game where the secondary caused the most turnovers they’ve had all season (aside from Darnold’s Week 11 game). What’s going to give?
That being said, I really think the Week 16 matchup instilled a lot of confidence into Darnold, as he was pressured a season-high 18 times in that one yet still came away with two big-time throws despite a time-to-throw average of 2.6 seconds (one of his quickest marks of the season). JSN is still an absolute animal wherever he lines up, and he should be able to burn the biggest weakness of the Rams defence, their outside CBs, on more than one occasion. Despite the Rams being proficient against Darnold, this is still an offence that ranked 8th in EPA/pass with the OLine ranking in the Top 10 when it comes to pressure rate allowed and no blitz pressure rate allowed.
If the Rams want to come away with this win, it’s likely going to be on the back of their DLine (as it usually is). This defence stops the run at a much higher rate with 5 DLinemen out there as opposed to 4, and only rushing 5 should be enough to disrupt Darnold when considering those 5 are Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Poona Ford, Kobie Turner, and Byron Young. If Rams DC Schula isn’t predominantly playing with 5 DLinemen out there, I will be very disappointed, and the Seahawks offence will likely score 25+ without too much trouble.
All told, the betting line really reflects how I see this game playing out. The Seahawks have the advantage in the run game, but the Rams can nullify this by containing outside lanes and throwing up a 5-man DLine. Darnold should get some success going through the air, but the pressure and his propensity to turn the ball over could lead to some short fields for Stafford. Punter Ethan Evans MUST punt every ball out of bounds and should be launching kickoffs through the end zone, limiting the effectiveness of All-Pro returner Rashid Shaheed. This game should end up somewhere in the 20’s for both teams, where it will likely come down to the last drive with the game on the line. I trust Stafford more in that kind of situation, but you can’t discount what Darnold has done in late-game situations throughout the season. If we’re going to see a blowout, it’s likely going to be the Seahawks that win it, but I just can’t see that happening. Seahawks 27, Rams 24.
Betting Props
- Sam Darnold 1+ Interception (-150)
- Kyren Williams Over 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- Puka Nacua 8+ Receptions (-120)
- Seahawks Rushing Total as a Team Under 128.5 Yards (-120)