*I will be putting a summary at the end that groups picks into three categories if you want to know my confidence levels with certain bets (for those of you not wanting to play the whole card with me). It will correlate with the units I put beside each pick (so for example, a very confident lean will be games I bet 1.5 units on, and a marginal lean is games I bet 0.5 units on).
ONE MORE SLEEP. Let’s go! At this time tomorrow, the Madness will start. And what better way to increase the Madness than to spread the units out and cover almost the full board? Trick question, there’s no better way.
Now, as I wrote in a previous article, I bet March Madness a little differently than I do during the regular season or Conference Tournaments. My units will be smaller, as I will be attacking the board with volume where I find edges based on a number of criteria.
With this volume betting strategy, there will be some losses, but the goal is to have around a 60-70% hit rate to keep churnin’ some profits. I am 7-2 on NCAA bets since I have begun sharing my picks, so let’s keep that number up and hammer some of these lines those nerd bookmakers put out.
Game 1: Michigan State vs Mississippi State, 10:15 a.m. C.S.T.
Line: -1 Michigan State, O/U 130.5
Pick: Mississippi State Team Over 64.5 (1.0 units)
This line looks like the bookies are putting a lot of stock into Michigan State’s defence and not much into Mississippi State’s offence. Their loss, I guess. It’s true that Michigan State has the 8th defence in KenPom defensive efficiency and only allows 65.9 ppg. It’s a good defence. And Mississippi State can hold its own on defence as well, ranking 20th in KenPom defensive efficiency. It looks like this is a prime game to go Under.
But then we look at recent performance. The last three games MSU has played they have the following points allowed: 67 (to Purdue, 21st in KP offensive efficiency), 67 (to Minnesota, 128th in KP offensive efficiency), and 65 (to Indiana, 82nd in KP offensive efficiency). Though it might be close, all three of these teams would hit Over this line, and two of the teams have worse offensive metrics than Mississippi State (60th in KP offensive efficiency).
Next, we look to Mississippi State. In their last six games, this team has not scored under 66. That 66 was against an Auburn team ranked 4th in KP defensive efficiency. They recently put up 73 against a Tennessee team ranked 3rd in KP defensive efficiency. Mississippi State has dealt with top defences before, and while they might not always win, they do find a way to get buckets.
Game 2: Duquesne vs BYU, 10:40 a.m. C.S.T.
Line: -9.5 BYU, O/U 142.0
Pick: BYU Team Under 75.5 (1.0u)
This BYU team is no joke. Despite a disappointing Conference Tournament showing, this team can fill it up. 11th in KenPom offensive efficiency and averaging 81.8 ppg, good for 20th in the Country. They play with pace and hit shots. So why does their Team Under hit?
It will hit for two reasons: 1) We’ve seen this story from BYU before with good KenPom rated defences that have good three point defence and 2) Duquesne just can’t score enough to push BYU to this Over.
We all know BYU loves to pop the three and relies on it significantly (more than 32 attempts per game). Here are BYU’s last five games, where I listed the opponents defensive stats beside the result:
- Scored 67 in loss to Texas Tech (45 KP defensive efficiency, 92 in 3 point defence percentage)
- Scored 87 in win against UCF (15 KP def eff, 156 in 3 point defence percentage)
- Scored 85 in win against OKlahoma State (126 KP def eff, 213 in 3 point defence percentage)
- Scored 63 in loss to Iowa State (1 in KP def eff, 56 in 3 point defence percentage)
- Scored 87 in win against TCU (31 in KP def eff, 127 in in 3 point defence percentage)
What we can see is if a team is in the top 50 in KP defensive efficiency, and top 100 in 3 point defence percentage, BYU can struggle to put up points. Duquesne just so happens to be 28th in KP defensive efficiency and 62nd in 3 point defence percentage. They actually profile closest to Iowa State’s defence out of BYU’s recent opponents based on these metrics. Though they aren’t that good, combining Duquesne’s defence with their inability to push the pace and score (256th in the Country at 70.8 ppg) leads to the BYU Team Under.
Game 3: Akron vs Creighton, 11:30 a.m. C.S.T.
Line: -12.5 Creighton, O/U 141.0
Pick: Creighton Team Over 77.5 (1.0u)
I love Creighton to put up a sick amount of points here. The 12th offence in the Country according to KP offensive efficiency averaging 80.5 ppg, this team has three bonafide scorers all averaging over 17 ppg.
Here are Creighton’s last 5 team totals: 73 (against Providence), 69 (Villanova), 84 (Marquette), 85 (Seton Hall), and 66 (St. John’s). None of these teams are lower than 56 in KP defensive efficiency, and three of them are top 20. Akron …. they’re 97 in KP defensive efficiency.
Akron has not been a team that allows opponents to score at a high rate. They only allow 65.9 ppg. Their opponents’ totals in their last 5 games: 61 (against Kent State), 62 (Ohio), 63 (Miami OH), 90 (whoa, Western Michigan), and 61 (Eastern Michigan). All of those teams are outside the top 120 in KP offensive efficiency, and three of them are below 290th in the rankings. Creighton …. They are 12th in KP offensive efficiency.
Creighton consistently plays teams with better defence than Akron and puts up close to the total. Akron consistently faces terrible offences to inflate their ranking in scoring defence. All of this adds up to Creighton humming and ticklin’ twine.
Game 4: Long Beach State vs Arizona, 12:00 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -20.5 Arizona, O/U 161.5
Pick: Under 161.5 (0.5u)
Based on scoring offence ranks, this game should be Over the total here. Arizona puts up 87.9 ppg (3rd in the Country), and LBS 77.7 ppg (70th in the Country). The scoring defences aren’t particularly good, with Arizona at 190th (72.2 ppg allowed) and LBS at 279th (75.7 ppg allowed).
But you have to look at two things here: 1) The KP defensive efficiency of LBS’s opponents, and 2) the KP offensive efficiency of Arizona’s opponents.
Starting with LBS, in their last 5 games, they put up: 74 (against UC Davis, 113th in KP defensive efficiency), 83 (UC Irvine, 40th in KP defensive efficiency), 86 (UC Riverside, 230th in KP defensive efficiency), 78 (UC Davis again), and 74 (UCSB, 245th in KP defensive efficiency). Now, UC Irvine is not bad at 40th in KP def eff, but Arizona is 12th. LBS also only scored 61 in their other game with UC Irvine earlier in March. I am guessing Arizona will hold them close to this number.
So basically, Arizona would need about 90-95 to hit this Over. And they have done this before. They recently put up 88 against UCLA and 103 against Oregon. But in Arizona’s last five games, there was only one game where this Over line would’ve hit. In the other four games, the totals were 126, 119, 143, and 153. Sure, they are facing better teams than LBS, but you have to consider that these are better teams offensively than LBS as well. I think Arizona either wins by 40 in a 90-50 blowout or Arizona remains inconsistent offensively, but good on the defensive end. Either way, this hits.
Game 5: Morehead (Nice) St. vs Illinois, 1:10 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -12 Illinois, O/U 147.5
Pick: Illinois Team Over 79.5 (0.5u)
This one is a little nasty, but this Morehead State team just hasn’t played good teams. Sure, they held SIUE to 63. SIUE is ranked 262nd in KP offensive efficiency. They recently held Lindenwood (who?) to 49. Lindenwood is ranked 355th in KP offensive efficiency. And it goes on, and on, with each opponent. Their 62.8 ppg allowed average (8th in the Country) is misleading. In fact, they played UT Martin (171st in KP offensive efficiency) twice in their last ten games, and UT put up 88 and 78 against Morehead.
Then you look at how this Illinois offence is buzzzzzing. Shannon Jr. is a problem, and he better be a lottery pick, because he looks like a top 5 player in the country that can do it all. In a tough Big 10 Tournament, Illinois finished their last two games at 93 vs Wisconsin (47th KP defensive efficiency) and 98 vs Nebraska (30th KP defensive efficiency). Morehead is 120th in KP defensive efficiency.
That all adds up to Illinois fillin’ the bucket.
Game 6: Oregon vs South Carolina, 2:00 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -1.5 South Carolina, O/U 132.5
Pick: Oregon ML at -105 (1.0u)
This Oregon team has been on a heater. Winning the Pac-12 Championship is impressive, and handling Arizona and Colorado like that has to garner some respect from the general public. This team just knows how to win close games while keeping scores low, holding Colorado to 68 (25th KP offensive efficiency), Arizona to 59 (8th in KP offensive efficiency), UCLA to 66 (156 offensive efficiency), and Utah to 65 (54th in offensive efficiency). Two of these teams have better offensive metrics than SC (who are 46th in KP offensive efficiency) and one has similar metrics.
Past that, I think the guard play from Oregon here will be quite a bit better, where the scoring comes a lot easier than it will for SC’s guards. If SC goes down early, they won’t be able to play at their preferred slow pace, and this will likely lead to rushed shot attempts, bad misses, and fouls. That’s why I have to go with the Ducks here, a team averaging right around 70 ppg in their last five games against better team defences than SC.
Game 7: Nevada vs Dayton, 2:30 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -1 Nevada, O/U 136.5
Pick: Nevada Team Over 68.5 (1.5u)
My most confident pick of the day, no doubt about it.
Let’s just get down to the brass tax: this Nevada team puts up points against better team defences than Dayton, and it’s not even close to this 68.5 line. In the last three games, Nevada has put up: 78 on Colorado State (38th KP defensive efficiency), 75 on UNLV (92nd KP defensive efficiency), and 76 on Boise State (29 in defensive efficiency). The three games before that they put up 74, 77, and 84. Dayton is ranked 87th in KP defensive efficiency. Nevada can absolutely score. What is this line all about?
Sure, Dayton’s scoring defence is okay, ranking 30th in the Country at 66.3 ppg. But let’s look at their last four games:
- Gave up 65 to Duquesne (166 KP offensive efficiency)
- Gave up 70 in regulation to VCU (115 KP offensive efficiency)
- Gave up 83! to Saint Louis (85 KP offensive efficiency)
- Gave up 77 to Loyola (189 KP offensive efficiency)
Nevada is 40th in the KP offensive efficiency rankings. Other than Duquesne, all of the other teams would hit the Over here, and Nevada has the best offensive metrics out of all of them. Hammer this Team Over and make the sportsbooks pay.
Game 8: Oakland vs Kentucky, 5:10 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -13.5 Kentucky, O/U 163.0
Pick: Nasty But I Love It, Kentucky Team Over 88.5 (0.5u)
We start out the evening slate with an absolute doozy on the Team Over. It looks daunting, I know. 89 points may be a lot for most teams. Not Kentucky. This is a 5th ranked KP offensive efficiency team that ranks 2nd in the country averaging 89.4 ppg. Ridiculous. They have put up gaudy scores in their recent games against top flight defences, including 87 on Texas A & M (57th KP defensive efficiency), 85 against Tennessee (3rd KP defensive efficiency), and 91 against MS State (20th KP defensive efficiency). Oakland ranks at 165 on the KP defensive efficiency list and allows 72.9 ppg (214th in the Country). Kentucky will beat this team up on the offensive end of the floor.
And Oakland should keep Kentucky shooting with their ability to get their own buckets, especially against this porous Kentucky defence. Oakland’s points for over their last five: 83, 74, 75, 75, 75. Sure, these scores were against bad team defences, but Kentucky has bad defence as well.
I just fear that Oakland may not contribute enough to hit the total over. What I do know is that Kentucky can hit this Team Over comfortably. So let’s ride.
Game 9: McNeese State vs Gonzaga, 5:25 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -6 Gonzaga, O/U 150.0
Pick: McNeese State Team Under 72.5 (1.0u)
Pretty simple one here.
Count me as one of the people who do not believe in this McNeese State team. The teams they play are just sooooo bad. Sure, they hit Over this Team Total in five out of their last six games. The best defence they played over that time? Lamar, ranked 215th in KP defensive efficiency. That is not good, and Lamar actually held McNeese to 58 in a recent meeting.
Then we go to the Zags. Holding St. Mary’s (45th in KP offensive efficiency) to 69 and 57 in recent games, in addition to holding San Francisco (97th in KP offensive efficiency) to 77 and 68 in recent games. McNeese State is ranked 50th in KenPom offensive efficiency, so not bad, but we have seen that Gonzaga can hold good offensive teams to low totals.
Game 10: South Dakota State vs Iowa State, 5:35 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -16.5 Iowa State, O/U 135.5
Pick: Pucker up, South Dakota State First Half Team Under 27.5 (1.0u)
OOOO this is a gross one. I just feel like I’ve seen this story too many times. Sure, SD State can put up some points averaging 76.8 ppg, but the KP offensive efficiency rank is low at 134. The best defence they have played recently is St. Thomas (169th KP defensive efficiency) and they put up 59 (28 in the 1st half).
Iowa State has the best defence in the Country. Teams only average 61.3 ppg against them, and they play in one of the best conferences in College Basketball. They just held Houston (17th KP offensive efficiency) to 23 points in the first half, and earlier in March they held Kansas State (138th in KP offensive efficiency) to 27 in the first half. The defence starts out hot, and they should overwhelm an offence ranked outside the top 125 in KP offensive efficiency in their biggest moment to date.
Game 11: Tennessee vs St. Peter’s, 7:20 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -21.5 Tennessee, O/U 129.5
Pick: Pucker up again, St. Peter’s First Half Team Under 24.5 (0.5u)
We are doing it again people! These First Half Unders are gross, but just look at St. Peter’s season scoring average: 65.3 ppg (334th in the Country, right near the bottom). Then take a look at Tennessee’s defensive scoring average: 67.9 ppg (66th in the Country). Now, take a look at all of the teams Tennessee has held to First Half Totals around the 24.5 here:
- South Carolina (46 KP off eff) held to 24 in first half;
- Texas A & M (31 off eff) held to 27 in first half;
- Missouri (137 in off eff) held to 29 in first half; and
- Vanderbilt (201 in off eff) held to 23 in first half
That was all since February 17. This team is just ferocious defensively, and they will eat up a St. Peter’s team that will be shying away from any kind of physical play with the more imposing team. Hit it.
Game 12: Drake vs Washington State, 8:05 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -1.5 Drake, O/U 138.0
Pick: Drake ML at -125 (1.0u)
A popular upset pick for some (including me), Drake has the juice to go at this Washington State team, and they have a better offence than Washington State does defence. Let’s look at Washington State’s last five games:
- Loss to Colorado (25 KP offensive efficiency, 42 KP defensive efficiency)
- Won against Stanford (98 KP off eff, 129 KP def eff)
- Lost to Washington (43 KP off eff, 101 KP def eff)
- Won against UCLA (156 KP off eff, 49 KP def eff)
- Won against USC (99 KP off eff, 28 KP def eff)
What you can see from this is: 1) Washington State wins against teams that have decent offences and good defences, and 2) Washington State loses to teams with good offences and decent defences. Guess which category Drake fits into?
Drake ranks 38th in KP offensive efficiency and 75 in defensive. They fit the mould. They are also coming off two wins against good teams in Indiana State (45th in KenPom ranks) and Bradley (64th in KenPom ranks).
Give me the upset baby.
Well that’s it for the first day everyone. Let’s stack these wins and make Thursday the best day of the year.
I will be posting an article soon for picks in most, if not every, game on day two of the Tournament. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Most Confident
Nevada vs Dayton, 2:30 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -1 Nevada, O/U 136.5
Pick: Nevada Team Over 68.5 (1.5u)
Confident
Michigan State vs Mississippi State, 10:15 a.m. C.S.T.
Line: -1 Michigan State, O/U 130.5
Pick: Mississippi State Team Over 64.5 (1.0 units)
Duquesne vs BYU, 10:40 a.m. C.S.T.
Line: -9.5 BYU, O/U 142.0
Pick: BYU Team Under 75.5 (1.0u)
Akron vs Creighton, 11:30 a.m. C.S.T.
Line: -12.5 Creighton, O/U 141.0
Pick: Creighton Team Over 77.5 (1.0u)
Oregon vs South Carolina, 2:00 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -1.5 South Carolina, O/U 132.5
Pick: Oregon ML at -105 (1.0u)
McNeese State vs Gonzaga, 5:25 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -6 Gonzaga, O/U 150.0
Pick: McNeese State Team Under 72.5 (1.0u)
South Dakota State vs Iowa State, 5:35 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -16.5 Iowa State, O/U 135.5
Pick: Pucker up, South Dakota State First Half Team Under 27.5 (1.0u)
Drake vs Washington State, 8:05 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -1.5 Drake, O/U 138.0
Pick: Drake ML at -125 (1.0u)
Moderate Lean
Long Beach State vs Arizona, 12:00 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -20.5 Arizona, O/U 161.5
Pick: Under 161.5 (0.5u)
Morehead (Nice) St. vs Illinois, 1:10 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -12 Illinois, O/U 147.5
Pick: Illinois Team Over 79.5 (0.5u)
Oakland vs Kentucky, 5:10 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -13.5 Kentucky, O/U 163.0
Pick: Nasty But I Love It, Kentucky Team Over 88.5 (0.5u)
Tennessee vs St. Peter’s, 7:20 p.m. C.S.T.
Line: -21.5 Tennessee, O/U 129.5
Pick: Pucker up again, St. Peter’s First Half Team Under 24.5 (0.5u)