I’mmmmm BACK! Coming off a big 3-0 day yesterday in this series of NCAA Basketball Championship Week bets, I’m going back to the well for another three bets to continue the heater.
This one will be a Team Total Special, with three different team totals I love. Again, there’s a small analysis for each pick, and the bets are based on a combination of factors considered (offensive and defensive rankings, etc.). Let’s start with another early game, since it worked so well last time.
Game 1: BIG 10 – Michigan State (8) v Purdue (1) – 10:00 a.m. CST
Line: -6.0 Purdue, O/U 143.5
Pick: Purdue’s Offense is Cash, Purdue Team Over 77.5/78.5 (1.0u)
Who doesn’t love Zach Edey? This man is wild, showing every game that he is extremely disciplined and skilled. But Purdue doesn’t just have this freak of fucking nature, they have a deadly team as well. Their offensive rank on the season is 11th at 84.2 ppg, and they are near tops of the KenPom and NET ranks at 3 and 2 respectively. In their last five games, they’ve scored 78 (against Wisconsin), 77 (Illinois), 80 (against this Michigan State team), 84 (Michigan), and 96 (Rutgers). This team touches more nylon than the biggest pantyhose enthusiast you can find.
Meanwhile, Michigan State is actually decent. While the offense has struggles (73.4 ppg for 182nd in the Country), the defense is solid (65.9 ppg for 25th in the Country). But this is just a matter of Purdue being that much better offensively than MS is defensively. We’ve already seen Purdue put up 80 on this team recently, and it has been a trend that teams with a bye (extra day of rest) and solid offense can come out and put up absolute points (look at UNC’s drubbing of FSU today). This all screams the Team Over for Purdue.
The line hasn’t been posted for the Team Totals yet, but with the 143 O/U line and giving 6 points to Purdue, the line should end up around 77.5/78.5.
Game 2: Big East – St. John’s (5) v UConn (1) – 3:30 p.m. CST
Line: -10.0 UConn, O/U 145.5
Pick: Please let St. John’s Cook, St. John’s Team Over 62.5/63.5 (2.0u)
OOOOO this one gets the shithole puckered. I know, I know, UConn’s defense is a sick joke. They are 13th in the Country giving up 64.0 ppg. This team is considered a favorite to win the National Championship for a reason. They also beat St. John’s both times this year, winning 69-65, and more recently, 77-64. Thing is, these scores for St. John’s would still hit the Team Over in this game. Heck, if St. John’s is just average against UConn, they would still hit this bet based on UConn’s average ppg allowed during the season.
Then we look at St. John’s. This team is no slouch offensively, averaging 78.1 ppg over the season, good for 64th in the Country. On top of that, I took the top three teams besides UConn in the Big East (Creighton, Seton Hall, and Marquette), and looked at St. John’s offensive outputs in those games. For reference, Creighton is 99th defensively (69.5 ppg allowed), Seton Hall is 100th (69.5 ppg allowed), and Marquette is 111th (69.8 ppg). Here are St. John’s points scored against these teams in their most recent matchups:
- Creighton – 80 points
- Seton Hall – 91 points
- Marquette – 75 points
I mean come on. These are teams that are above average defensively (all ranking around 100th in the Country), and St. John’s didn’t put up any less than 75? WHAT IS THIS TEAM TOTAL THEN?????
My thoughts exactly, so hammer it.
(Again, this line isn’t posted yet, but watch out for it.)
Game 3: SEC – South Carolina (5) v Auburn (4) – 1:30 p.m. CST
Line: -7.5 Auburn, O/U 143.0
Pick: Please don’t have a Dud Shooting Day Auburn, Auburn Team Over 79.5 (1.0u)
I love the way this Auburn offense rolls, but it can be frustrating. There have been times this year where they fell flat on their face in big spots (such as the Kentucky game). But if these boys have even an average shooting game, I think this Team Total hits. The offense puts up a staggering 83.5 ppg, and their last five offensive outputs were 92, 101, 78, 92, and 97 (though this was against weaker teams).
The only issue in everyone’s mind is the stellar defense we know SC is capable of. I mean, they were 33rd in the Country at 66.4 ppg allowed. But then we look at the last game these two teams played against each other. Auburn puts up a cool 101 points. No joke, just clowned em’. But this could just be a freak bad game defensively for SC. Then you look at how many points Auburn put up against another good defensive team in the SEC, Tennessee (65th in the country at 67.7 ppg allowed). Auburn put up 84 points against them.
Everyone talked about SC’s lack of pace in the Arkansas game being the reason that game would go Under, but honestly they looked to be pushing things pretty well. Couple that with the pace of Auburn, and I’m thinking this Team Total is a good spot to set up shop.
So those are the bets people! Make sure to toss a follow on X @plusmoneypost if you liked the analysis.
Summary of Picks
Game 1: BIG 10 – Michigan State (8) v Purdue (1) – 10:00 a.m. CST
Line: -6.0 Purdue, O/U 143.5
Pick: Purdue’s Offense is Cash, Purdue Team Over 77.5/78.5 (1.0u)
Game 2: Big East – St. John’s (5) v UConn (1) – 3:30 p.m. CST
Line: -10.0 UConn, O/U 145.5
Pick: Please let St. John’s Cook, St. John’s Team Over 62.5/63.5 (2.0u)
Game 3: SEC – South Carolina (5) v Auburn (4) – 1:30 p.m. CST
Line: -7.5 Auburn, O/U 143.0
Pick: Please don’t have a Dud Shooting Day Auburn, Auburn Team Over 79.5 (1.0u)