NCAA Basketball Championship Week is here people! It’s time to get that gamblin’ fire going before Selection Sunday hits (and hopefully make enough bankroll to unapologetically bet big on some games during March Madness). I have always found this week to be a great starting point for those who don’t follow as closely during the regular season to get an idea of the “juice” certain teams have going into March Madness.
I scoped out bets for three of the more entertaining games tomorrow (well, the games I find entertaining, sorry to those teams not in the ACC, SEC, and Big 12). There’s a small analysis for each pick, and the bets are based on a combination of factors considered (offensive and defensive rankings, etc.). Let’s start with an early one that goes well with a spiked coffee.
Game 1: ACC – Florida State (9) v North Carolina (1) – 10:00 a.m. CST
Line: -10.5 North Carolina, O/U 153.5
Pick: Beggin’ for the Over 153.5 (1.5u)
I’ll be honest, the real reason I’m including this one is because I am a pretty big fan of watching North Carolina play. They’re studs, holding the 8th spot in Kenpom and 7th spot in the NET ranks. UNC ranks 22nd in the country in offensive scoring with 81.6 ppg, and in their last five games the offensive totals are: 84 (against Duke), 84 (ND), 79 (NC State), 75 (Miami) and the outlier of the group, 54 (against a Virginia team that only scored 44 in that game, ranks 345th in offensive scoring, and could be the most boring team in the Country). With Florida State giving up 75.8 ppg (281st in the Country), I think the trend of the last four games continues and UNC will score around 80, if not more.
That would mean FSU needs around 75 for this bet to be a W, and I think this is likely. Lately, decent teams are keeping up with UNC, as Duke scored 79, NC State scored 70, and Miami scored 71. FSU averages 76.5 ppg on the offensive end (96th in the Country), and the totals from their last five games are 162 (against Virginia Tech), 158 (Miami), 161 (Pitt), 161 (Georgia Tech), and 173 (NC State). With these latest totals all surpassing the total set for this game, and the offensive prowess of UNC, I’m locking this one in as one of my most confident.
Game 2: Big 12 – BYU (5) v Texas Tech (4) – 10:30 a.m. CST
Line: -1.5 BYU, O/U 153.0
Pick: Too Many Points for Decent Defenses, Under 153.0 (1u)
I know, I know, I’m sorry for giving picks for two games that are so close in time. But come on, this might be my favorite game of the day, and at least two TV’s is essential at this point in the year.
Both of these teams have good offenses, especially BYU, who had a killer year without a true star player. BYU was ranked 20th in offensive ppg at 82.2 ppg and Texas Tech was 109th with 75.9 ppg. While BYU can pick on some defenses (87 against UCF in the first game of the tournament, 85 against Oklahoma State, and 87 against TCU in three of their last five games), they only scored 63 against Iowa State (allows 62.1 ppg) and 76 against Kansas (allows 68.6 ppg) during that five game stretch.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech is actually better on the season than Kansas when it comes to defensive ppg (only allowing 69.0 ppg, good for 91st in the Country), and here are Texas Tech’s last five totals: 146 (against Baylor), 133 (Oklahoma State), 151 (West Virginia), 150 (Texas), and 136 (UCF). The two higher totals here can be explained away, as West Virginia is 304th in the Country on defense (76.8 ppg allowed) and a good Texas team beat them 81-69. This all adds up to an under, where I see the score ending up around 145.
Game 3: ACC – Wake Forest (5) v Pittsburgh (4) – 12:30 p.m. CST
Line: -1.5 Wake Forest, O/U 147.0
Pick: Wrong Team is Favored, Pitt ML at +115 (1.5u)
To be honest with you, this Wake Forest team is on fraud-watch for me. The Clemson win (Clemson is 24th in Kenpom, 26th in NET) at the end of the regular season is mighty impressive, especially considering Pitt lost to Clemson a few games earlier. The offense for Wake was also legit over the season, ranking 56th in the Country at 78.7 ppg. But let’s look at Wake’s four other games over their last five:
- Beat Notre Dame in Tournament (72-59)
- Lost to Georgia Tech (70-69)
- Lost to Virginia Tech (87-76)
- Lost to Notre Dame (70-65)
That does not inspire confidence. Especially considering only one of those teams is close to Pitt in the Kenpom ranks (Virginia Tech at 56, Pitt at 46).
Pitt’s defense is also pretty damn good, ranking 57th in the Country at 67.5 ppg allowed and over the last five games, they held teams like Clemson to 69 and Virginia Tech to 64.
All of this adds up to a value bet on the Pitt ML in my eyes. Pitt will not be as inept as ND, and even if they are, the defense might get the job done on its own.
So those are the bets people! Make sure to toss a follow on X @plusmoneypost if you liked the analysis and so you can watch out for possible additional bets being placed throughout the day.
Summary of Picks
Game 1: ACC – Florida State (9) v North Carolina (1) – 10 a.m. CST
Line: -10.5 North Carolina, O/U 153.5
Pick: Over 153.5 (1.5u)
Game 2: Big 12 – BYU (5) v Texas Tech (4) – 10:30 a.m. CST
Line: -1.5 BYU, O/U 153.0
Pick: Under 153.0 (1u)
Game 3: ACC – Wake Forest (5) v Pittsburgh (4) – 12:30 p.m. CST
Line: -1.5 Wake Forest, O/U 147.0
Pick: Pitt ML at +115 (1.5u)