NCAA Basketball National Championship Bets: Game Pick, Total Pick, and Some Extra NHL Plays for April 8, 2024

The Natty is here, people! While this March Madness lacked some Cinderella magic, the two best teams in the Nation meeting tonight more than makes up for it. Everyone was practically drooling all over themselves to get this matchup when the brackets were released. Even if basketball isn’t your sport of preference, you’ll still be entertained by this UConn vs Purdue showdown. That’s how good it is. But we want to get in on some NHL action tonight too, so we have a couple small plays there as well. With over +5 units (over $500 of profit on $100 unit bets) tracked in April so far, we’re rolling. Let’s keep it going!

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NCAAB National Championship: UConn Huskies vs Purdue Boilermakers, 7:20 p.m. CST

Pick: UConn -6.5 -110 (1u)

I just can’t go against UConn here. I know it’s the popular pick, and almost everyone is riding them, but with how complete this team is …. it’s impossible to pick against them.

Don’t get me wrong, Purdue is sick. They were one of the top 5 teams in the Country all year, and the reason for their consistency was two-fold: that freak, Zach Edey, and their perimeter shooting. This team obviously had a stud in Edey to begin with, but the guard play has been damn impressive too. Making teams pay for bringing the double on Edey in the post has been crucial to their success. The defence is stellar too, as can be seen from their Tournament results (such as the absolute shutdown of NC State who had previously been lighting up scoreboards). Overall, I could not blame someone for choosing Purdue here.

But have you seen UConn this Tournament? Even when they play like dogshit (which isn’t often), they still beat good teams by 20. It’s as absurd as it gets. Bama had an absolute day shooting the ball against UConn, going 8/11 from three point territory in the first half. They seemed to be keeping it close, and they were actually playing very good ball. Then …. UConn just hammers them in the second half and wins by double digits. The defence is disgustingly good, with the clear leader on that end being my boy Clingan, aka Cling Kong. This 7’2’’ sophomore is almost equal to Edey in freakiness, with a 7’7″ wingspan and the defensive metrics to show he knows how to use it. 18 blocks in the Tournament? Gross.

In theory, the game comes down to two things: (1) The Edey/Clingan matchup, and (2) how well all the other guys shoot. If Edey draws a quick two/three fouls on Clingan, you can probably expect Purdue to have a higher win probability. If Purdue hits their 3’s and UConn doesn’t, they could go on a run and have UConn bettors bewildered. However, there are ways UConn can mitigate these scenarios in ways I don’t think Purdue can if they’re on the other side of it. Other than the two big men, the best player on the floor is UConn’s Tristen Newton. All-American, Triple Double Machine. UConn can splash it from the outside with guys like Karaban, but they can also create on the inside if those shots aren’t falling. Purdue seems to have more trouble creating on the inside if Edey is somewhat under control. They rely heavily on the three-ball. UConn has some depth too, where Clingan could get into foul trouble and they could still challenge Edey to some extent. On the other side, if Edey gets a couple fouls …. Purdue is in serious trouble.

This all adds up to UConn for me. I’ll take this Spread and finish the Tourney riding the best team in the Country. Can’t get any better.

Pick: Second Half Under 76.5 -112 (0.5u)

C’mon, we can’t just limit ourselves to one pick in this game. It’s way too good for that. This pick might not be offered on every sportsbook, so if it’s not available to you, I would advise you bet the Under live after the First Half. Betting trends from past Tournaments say this bet hits almost every National Championship, and I see one of these teams (likely UConn) coming through on the defensive end in the second half to lock up the trophy.

Let’s take a look back to all of the National Championship games since 2011. The Second Half Under is 9-3 in these games, with one of those losses coming in an overtime game that would’ve been Under in regulation time. It makes sense; teams start to lock it up completely on defence in the biggest moments, and each shot comes with more pressure, leading to extremely stressed out teenage kids on the biggest stage of their life. Thinking past the analytics to the human aspect of the game, you gotta be able to see that the grind of this game will likely make the second half a slog, with one or both offences struggling.

Let’s hammer this one too.

NHL Game 1: Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs, 5:00 p.m. CST

Pick: Auston Matthews Over 4.5 SOG -115 (0.25u)

We’re riding Papi’s coat-tails again tonight. The Pens are no strangers to giving up shots-on-goal (SOG), ranking 10th in the League in shots allowed. Toronto likes to rip the puck, and Matthews is the ringleader on that front. Averaging almost 4.5 shots-per-game (SPG) on the season, he hovers right around this line every game. While his recent performance may be indicative of an Under (3 SOG, 6 SOG, 2 SOG in his last three games), I’m feeling like positive regression is inbound with Matthews, who will want to match the high intensity of Crosby on the other side in this one. Let it rip people.

NHL Game 2: Vegas Golden Knights vs Vancouver Canucks, 8:00 p.m. CST

Pick: Shea Theodore Under 2.5 SOG -210 (0.25u)

I just don’t think Shea’s line should be 2.5 SOG, even at the prohibitive -210 line. The Canucks don’t give up shots, ranking top 5 in the league in preventing SOG. VGK is only middle of the pack at getting SOG ranking 15th in the League. Meanwhile, this smooth-skating defenceman just hasn’t been as active on the offensive front as of late. 2, 0, and 0 SOG in his last three games and only averaging 2.19 SPG on the season. I would expect Shea’s struggles to find the net will continue in this spot, so we have our last bet of the night.

Well that’s it people. I will be posting a betting article soon on the huge UFC 300 Card and will continue to post NHL picks through the week. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.