Alright ladies and gents – we’re on to Week 3 of the NFL Regular Season. There have been plenty of surprises to this point of the season – with plenty more to come in this chaotic game of superhuman athletes running at each other full force. I, for one, cannot wait to plant my ass on the couch for another NFL Sunday full of exciting bets. God – is there anything else better in the world.
TNF with Jets vs NE – didn’t go great. I outlined how bad the beats were that night in the tweet below – so I’m thinking we must have some good betting karma saved up after getting hit right in the mouth on Thursday:
This week – we’re at it again with a two-part article series of best bets for the Sunday slate – 19 total bets on deck (couldn’t hit the 20 pick mark – that NYG vs CLE game is just too ugly for me). The change-up – we’re going all player props, looking deep into PFF mismatch data to give us the best possible chance to cash some tickets. All while joking around and having some fun. That’s what this is all about.
So, without further ado, let’s get to the analysis.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from PFF.com premium subscription.
NFL Week Three: Sunday Best Bets
Game One: Chicago Bears vs Indianapolis Colts
Pick: DJ Moore Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- CHI WR Keenan Allen (Out)
- IND DT DeForest Buckner (Out, IR)
- IND DE Laiatu Latu (Questionable, LP Fri, likely playing)
- IND WR Michael Pittman (Questionable, surprise DNP Fri, expected to play)
We know DJ Moore is a stud (over 1,300 receiving yards last year with Fields at QB) – so instead of talking about him, let’s start with explaining what’s happened thus far to the guy in charge of getting him the ball, Rookie QB Caleb Williams.
He took on TEN in Week 1. TEN does not have a good pass rush (Bottom 10 on PFF), but their coverage unit is elite with La’Jarius Snead and Chidobie Awuzie manning the corner spots (they’ve allowed a grand total of 69 receiving yards combined to this point in the season). Caleb obviously struggled due to the tight coverage, leading him to hold the ball too long, racking up 9 pressures and a sub-100 passing yard day.
Caleb then goes against HOU in Week 2. They blitz a ton (38% of the time) with two elite pass-rushers in DE Will Anderson Jr. and FA All-Pro Edge Danielle Hunter – Caleb is pressured constantly. This CHI OLine can do alright in pass pro against subpar pass-rushes (their grading was decent against TEN) – but not the HOU pass-rush with that kind of stud personnel. This led to a better yardage total for Caleb (174 yards passing) to go along with 24 pressures. Give HOU their flowers – their 11th overall in team defence grading on PFF through two weeks.
This week – Caleb goes up against the Colts. The *checks notes* 23rd ranked defence in the NFL on PFF, with sub-66 PFF grades in all defensive categories. Ouch. With Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner exiting last week’s game and going on the IR, this defence has a total of zero playmakers. The pass-rush and the run defence will both suffer this week, allowing the Bears to run the ball (but probably not effectively because RB Swift has not been good) and pass the ball to a much greater extent.
Then – we get to the individual matchups DJ will have in this one. PFF has a tool rating WR/CB matchups, and here’s how it pans out for DJ:
Those two outside Cornerback matchups are pretty damn juicy – and with Keenan Allen ruled Out, it looks like DJ is the main target again after racking up 17 targets through the first two weeks. Expect a couple of deeper passes to DJ as the CHI OLine limits this weak Colts defensive front – with the Colts secondary performing as they usually do – shittily.
Game Two: Denver Broncos vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Chris Godwin Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-107) 1.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- TB OT Luke Goedke (Out)
- TB DT Calijah Kancey (Out)
- TB DT Vita Vea (Doubtful, LP Fri, likely out or severely limited)
- TB S Antoine Winfield (Out)
- DEN LB Baron Browning (Out)
This one comes down to one simple fact – the Bucs will not be able to run the ball in this one. Taking a look at the PFF OLine/DLine mismatches chart, the Bucs OLine is only giving up a -11% pass block disadvantage, while the run block disadvantage sits at -23%. The OLine just can’t get a push in the run game, and now, starting RT Goedke is Out for another week after they only went for 40 rush yards (by the RB’s) on 17 rush attempts last week vs a solid Lions defensive front. Well, the Broncos have only gotten gashed in the run game with an elite RB in Seattle with Kenneth Walker going scorched earth on them. I think TB RB Rachaad White and RB Bucky Irving are more in the vein of Steelers RB’s Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren – who Denver held in check last week.
Instead – the Bucs will have to do what they’ve done all season to this point – pass the ball. They destroyed an incompetent Commander’s defence in the first week – but that shouldn’t be a surprise. The surprise came in Week 2, when this pass offence was still very successful against a Top 10 defence in Detroit, earning their #12 rank on PFF in both overall passing offence, and pass blocking. Now, the Denver defence is on the docket with the #19 PFF pass-rush grade and the #27 PFF pass coverage grade.
And who’s been the most consistent WR of the bunch in Tampa? Slot WR Godwin, with 7+ catches and 80+ receiving yards in each matchup thus far. The matchup for Godwin in the slot this week – DEN Slot CB Ja’Quan McMillian, and PFF has this rated as an “Excellent” matchup with a 91.4/100 grade. McMillian is far from good (52 snaps, 60.7 PFF coverage grade), and the pass-rush for DEN should be just enough to force more underneath throws to Godwin in the middle of the field. Count it.
Game Three: Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans
Pick: Tony Pollard Over 84.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-118) 1.0u via Betsafe
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- TEN RB Tyjae Spears (Questionable, FP Fri, likely to play)
- GB QB Jordan Love (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- GB CB Carrington Valentine (Doubtful, DNP all week, likely out)
The great part about Tony P – he’s gamscript-proof based on what we’ve seen through two weeks. If they get down in the game (as they did against the Jets in Week 2) – he goes out there and catches 5 balls for 40 yards. If they stay up in a game (as they did against CHI in Week 1), he rushes the ball 16 times for 82 yards (71 yards after contact) and a TD. On both occasions – he went Over this total line. So whether GB QB Jordan Love does play with the MCL injury or not – we should be covered with Tony Tone.
Well – it’s not like the rush defences Tony P faced weren’t good. CHI is 12th on PFF in rush defence, and the NYJ just put on an absolute show against the NE rush offence who had 200+ yards on the ground through 2 weeks. Further, this Tennessee OLine has their shit together in the run blocking, ranking 12th in PFF in that category. Couple that with the fact that Tyjae, the 1B to Pollard’s 1A, is still banged up with an ankle injury and didn’t practice to start the week – the volume should stay with Pollard. And now – they go up against the 6th worst rush defence according to PFF grading in GB. Yikes.
It’s not like GB had cupcake matchups when it came to the offensive lines they’ve faced – IND and PHI both rank in the Top 10 in PFF for run blocking. Add to that the RB duo of Jonathon Taylor and Saquon Barkley over the last two weeks – and it makes sense their PFF rush defence grade is in the toilet. However – I just don’t see there being much of a difference when it comes to this TEN rush offence. The OLine is almost just as good as IND and PHI in run blocking, Tony P looks refreshed and he’s just as versatile as RB Saquon Barkley (who put up 132 yards from scrimmage against GB in Week 1 with some receiving work), and there’s a commitment to the run from TEN that’s evident in their playcalling (run plays called 45% of the time, with Pollard averaging 16.5 rush attempts a game).
Everything points to Tony.
Game Four: Houston Texans vs Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Tank Dell Over 4.5 Rush Yards (-105) 1.0u via Betway
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- HOU RB Joe Mixon (Doubtful, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
- HOU RB Dameon Pierce (Out)
- HOU C Jarrett Patterson (Questionable, DNP Fri, unlikely to play)
- HOU C Juice Scrubbs (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
- MIN WR Jordan Addison (Out)
- MIN LB Ivan Pace (Out)
- MIN OLB Dallas Turner (Out)
Whether you realize it or not – Tank is actually a part of this Texans run game. In Week 1 vs Indy, he ran the ball 2 times for 19 rush yards. In Week 2 vs CHI – 3 rushes for 16 yards. This guy is a problem on the end-around with his blazing speed – and now the Texans are likely without starting RB Joe Mixon and depth RB Dameon Pierce – and we’re still getting a 6.5 yard rushing line when Dell’s exceeded it both times? Ridiculus.
On top of that – the Vikings have a top three blitz rate in the NFL (blitz 36.6% of the time). A good way to counter a blitz is – you guessed it – end-arounds to speedsters. A couple LB’s on MIN being ruled Out doesn’t hurt this one either. This is my sneaky play of the week.
Game Five: Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: George Pickens Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-118) 1.0u via Betsafe
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- LAC LB Junior Colson (Out)
- LAC QB Justin Herbert (Questionable, DNP Fri, true question to play)
- PIT OG Isaac Seumalo (Out)
- PIT QB Russell Wilson (Questionable, unlikely to start)
Well – even if Chargers QB Justin Herbert doesn’t go in this one, the Steelers still have to put some points on the board to win this game. I believe the only way they move on this LAC defence is through the air – as the run game isn’t looking mighty hot in this matchup.
It’s fair to say that Steelers OC Arthur Smith loves relying on the run (31st in the NFL in pass-rate at 37.9%). However, there are still some pass plays thrown in that mix, and the only guy getting any valuable targets on the Pittsburgh team is George Pickens. He has a 27% target rate in this offence, meaning just about every one-in-three passes thrown go to him. Further, Pickens has been producing explosive plays at will to this point in the season. 85 receiving yards in Week 1 with a 40 yard bomb to aid the stat line, to go along with what could have been another 75+ yard performance in Week 2 had his 40 yard catch held up (PIT got a holding call). He always has that chance to pop off for a big play – and I don’t expect anyone else getting in on the action with Pickens almost doubling the receiving yards of the next best PIT pass-catcher.
On the other side of this coin – the LAC defence should have the advantage on the ground with their renewed rush defence. PFF has them rated #4 in the League in that category to this point in the season, and while PIT loves to rely on the run, they are #30 on PFF’s rushing rank. Not too great, and it’s not like the Steelers have a dynamic passing game to lessen the amount of stacked boxes Najee/Warren will be facing. I expect at least a few 3rd and longs, with a lot of opportunities for Pickens in above-average matchups across the board (a grade of 50 would be the baseline average)
Book it.
Game Six: Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints
Pick: Alvin Kamara Over 68.5 Rush Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- PHI WR AJ Brown (Out)
- PHI S CJ Garder-Johnson (Questionable, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
The key in this matchup: PFF has this rated as one of the biggest mismatches between OLines vs DLines, giving NO’s 5-man unit on offence a 42% rushing edge against this porous Eagles defensive front (only DET’s OLine vs ARZ’s DLine ranks higher). The numbers don’t lie – after the Saints OLine dominated a weak Carolina defence in Week 1, they moved on to a solid defensive front with Parsons and Co. and the Dallas Cowboys – and they were just as good. While the pass-blocking took a hit (from 88.5 grade in Week 1 to a 59.0 grade in Week 2), the run game still excelled – and it showed with Kamara putting up 83 and 115 rush yards respectively through the first two weeks. With the 115 yard performance coming against the Cowboys – it’s indicative that Kamara could have an even bigger workload when playing against a team that’s better against the pass (15 rush att vs CAR and 21 rush attempts vs DAL).
Meanwhile – this Eagles defence should be a very similar test to the Dallas defence New Orleans just faced. A good pass-rush (9th on PFF with 69.6 grade – nice), below-average pass coverage (23rd on PFF with 57.6 grade), and a bad rush defence (29th on PFF with 42.8 grade – yikes). While we have to take into consideration the offences that PHI has played to this point (GB with Josh Jacobs and ATL with Bijan Robinson), this Saints offence has proven to be just as elite at clearing run lanes within the Kubiak motion-heavy scheme.
Gamescript should be in our favour as well, with both offences set to have a good day on the ground (PHI also has a +20% run advantage when it comes to OLine vs DLine mismatches). PHI is also missing their number one weapon through the air in AJ Brown, leading to a less effective pass attack and a better gamescript for Kamara. Let’s smash this one.
Pick: Chris Olave Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 1.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- PHI WR AJ Brown (Out)
- PHI S CJ Garder-Johnson (Questionable, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
Doubling up on Saints in this one. Just because the NO OLine has a disadvantage against PHI’s DLine in pass protection, doesn’t mean Olave can’t get in on the action early. I think the script flips this week and we have Olave back as the WR1 in this offence with Rasheed Shaheed acting as such to this point.
Why? Well, it comes down to the matchups again. This Eagles secondary is still very shaky (23rd in PFF coverage grading), and the CB matchups across the board SCREAM “beat me downfield good sir” with below average play from Big Play Slay, Rookie 1st Rounder Mitchell, and SLCB Maddox. Check it out.
While I did say the gamescript lends itself more to the run game for NO in this one, they will still take plenty of opportunities with this porous secondary on shorter throws that don’t take as much time to develop (to avoid this 9th ranked pass rush on PFF). Shaheed ain’t the short guy (18.0 yard average depth of target) – that’s Olave (11.0 yard average depth of target). Double up.
Game Seven: Carolina Panthers vs LV Raiders
Pick: Diontae Johnson Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- LV Edge Maxx Crosby (Questionable, LP all week, likely to play)
- LV LB Divine Diablo (Out)
- LV DT Christian Wilkinson (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
I BELIEVE in the Red Rocket baby. Andy Dalton starting at QB for CAR should bring a jolt to this otherwise stagnant offence. I mean, it can’t really get worse than it’s been over the first two weeks of the season.
There’s a real simple recipe to this one, though it involves some projection: LV should be able to light up this weak Carolina defence. The Panthers were already at the bottom of most PFF defensive grading lists – and then you add in the fact that they lost the only valuable piece of the defence, All-Pro DT Derrick Brown, in Week 1 of the season. To be fair, LV is only the #20 overall offence based on PFF grading. However – Carolina is THE worst defence based on PFF grading – so there should be plenty of push by LV, leading Carolina to throw the ball in this one.
Further, Diontae Johnson has a 48% separation rate on PFF (on almost half of his opportunities, he had snaps with separation from the DB), which is encouraging for one of the best separators in the League based on historical data. Further, he’s still commanding a target share over 20% in this offence with over 100 air yards to this point in the season. The QB accuracy just hasn’t been good to this point – which has prevented Diontae from going over 20 yards receiving in either game. Expect the QB accuracy to be better with the Red Rocket at the helm.
Then – the final stat that locked this one in. LV is struggling with their pass coverage (29th in PFF pass coverage grading). The only guy they have playing at a high-level in the CB room is Nate Hobbs, the slot corner with a pretty stellar 73.3 overall defensive grade. While Diontae has lined up in the slot this year, it’s only at about a 20% rate, leaving him two outside Corners to pick on throughout the game:
(insert pic)
It’s all coming together folks.
Game Eight: Miami Dolphins vs Seattle Seahawks
Pick: De’Von Achane Over 106.5 Rush and Receiving Yards (-112) 1.0u via NorthStar
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- MIA RB Raheem Mostert (Doubtful, LP all week, unlikely to play)
- SEA LB Jerome Baker (Doubtful, DNP Fri, unlikely to play)
- SEA LB Derrick Hall (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
- SEA OLB Boye Mafe (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
- SEA OLB Uchenna Nwosu (Out)
Wow – look at those injuries to the Seattle LB core. Ouchie. Things only get worse for Seattle’s defence when we consider the context surrounding these injuries.
Another big mismatch between the OLine and the DLine when it comes to run blocking – Miami’s OLine holds a +18% advantage against Seattle’s DLine on the ground. Everything considered – this is the 4th ranked OLine in PFF’s run blocking grade and they’ve gone up against tough defensive fronts in BUF and JAX to start the year.
Achane – he’s just been gross. A 75.8 PFF total offensive grade is pretty damn good, and 265 scrimmage yards in two games is very fucking good. Remember – Achane had 7 catches/game with Tua through the first two games – now he has Skylar Thompson in at QB, an inexperienced QB who should be dumping the ball off more to Achane with the OLine holding a -29% disadvantage against this Seahawks pass-rush according to PFF. Lots of rush attempts, lot’s of dump-offs – perfect for Achane yardage.
Meanwhile – this SEA rush defence has some absolute problem-spots (aside from injury). LB Tyrell Dodson is tied for the most run defence snaps on the team – and has one of the worst PFF run defence grades in the NFL at 37.4. Further, aside from OLB Boye Mafe (banged up) and DE Leonard Williams (both 75+ PFF rush defence grades), the DLine struggled with stopping the run, with PFF grades ranging from 63.5 to 42.7. The LB core is banged up, and the defence has already shown a propensity to get torched through the air in the underneath game (SEA LB’s got shredded in coverage by Hunter Henry (NE) last week). Expect another banger for Achane in this one – as long as he doesn’t get hurt with such a big workload (please Football Gods, I’m begging you).
Game Nine: Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Ceedee Lamb Over 82.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via Betano
Key Injuries Influencing Pick:
- BAL CB Nate Wiggins (Questionable, LP Fri, likely to play)
Whether BAL CB Wiggins plays or not – this is a smash spot. The difficulty with the pick – how mediocre this Dallas OLine has been, now going up against a very solid defensive front with run stuffing and pass-rush options across the board. The way Dallas overcomes this – pick on this doggy doo doo secondary on Baltimore.
With 2023 DC Mike MacDonald leaving Baltimore, along with the departures of LB Patrick Queen, CB Ronald Darby, and S Geno Stone, this defence has lost the ability to cover WR’s. We all saw it last week with the Raiders – LV just decided to go to the “force-feed Adams” approach through the whole 2nd half – which led to a comeback win & a 100+ receiving yard day for Davante. The proof is in the pudding – Baltimore ranks #26 in PFF pass coverage grading. It’s a bad time to be a part of this secondary.
Ceedee – has been most underwhelming to this point in the season (he still has 150 yards receiving to this point – lol). He got caught up in two bad gamescripts – one where his team got out to a very big lead, and one where his team got behind big very early. I don’t see that happening in this one – it should be a decently close matchup with a lot of opportunities in the pass game. Dak might have to accelerate the reads with BAL’s DLine (7th in PFF pass rush grading) bringing pressure against this DAL OLine (23rd in PFF pass block grading). The thing is – I’m guessing Lamb is going to be the first-read a lot of the time – and he will be able to separate from these CB’s. Just look at the PFF mismatch ratings:
I’m seeing green baby.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Game One: Chicago Bears vs Indianapolis Colts
Pick: DJ Moore Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
Game Two: Denver Broncos vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Chris Godwin Over 64.5 Receiving Yards (-107) 1.0u via Betano
Game Three: Green Bay Packers vs Tennessee Titans
Pick: Tony Pollard Over 84.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-118) 1.0u via Betsafe
Game Four: Houston Texans vs Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Tank Dell Over 4.5 Rush Yards (-105) 1.0u via Betway
Game Five: Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Pick: George Pickens Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-118) 1.0u via Betsafe
Game Six: Philadelphia Eagles vs New Orleans Saints
Pick: Alvin Kamara Over 68.5 Rush Yards (-110) 1.0u via Coolbet
Pick: Chris Olave Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-109) 1.0u via Betano
Game Seven: Carolina Panthers vs LV Raiders
Pick: Diontae Johnson Over 47.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via NorthStar
Game Eight: Miami Dolphins vs Seattle Seahawks
Pick: De’Von Achane Over 106.5 Rush and Receiving Yards (-112) 1.0u via NorthStar
Game Nine: Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Ceedee Lamb Over 82.5 Receiving Yards (-111) 1.0u via Betano