You guys already know what it is. Part One was chock full of picks – and we’re rolling things out again for Round 2 – Week 2. If you guys didn’t get a look at analysis for the first 7 games of the NFL Sunday slate – don’t fret – everything’s at the link.
Let’s get right into the last 6 games of Sunday and see if we can break things down in our favour.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Best Bets – Part Two (Last 6 Games on Sunday)
Game One: Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots
Key SEA Week 2 Injuries:
- OT George Fant (Doubtful, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
- RB Kenneth Walker Jr. (Doubtful, DNP all week, unlikely to play)
- LB Uchenna Nwosu (Out)
Key NE Week 2 Injuries:
- S Kyle Dugger (Questionable, LP Thurs and Fri, likely to play)
- OG Sidy Sow (Out)
Best Bets based on Analysis:
Pick: Under 39.0 Total Points (-111) 1.0u via LeoVegas
You saw the key injuries to SEA above – I would’ve taken their spread if Kenneth was a full go and the OLine was intact. As things stand – this is a unit that struggled against a mediocre Broncos defence with the DEN secondary locking down everything in sight. The SEA run game was successful – but only with Walker, who we assume won’t play based on his DNP practice trend. Even if he does suit up – he’ll be limited – and the NE secondary is their strongest asset on the backend to eliminate DK and Lockett. Things don’t look good, especially without a starting Tackle in the lineup (again, a projection based on his DNP’s all week).
Meanwhile – this Seattle defence looked like a vastly improved unit in Week One. New HC Mike MacDonald did wonders with this defensive scheme, generating pressure with subpar pass-rushers and using his deadly CB duo to shut down every pass lane available. Expect a slobberknocker – which should be expected with this NE team.
Game Two: San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings
Key SF Week 2 Injuries:
- S Talanoa Hufanga (Doubtful, LP all week, likely out)
- RB Christian McCaffrey (IR)
Key MIN Week 2 Injuries:
- WR Jordan Addison (Out)
- OG Ed Ingram (weird LP on Friday – true question to play)
- OT Brian O’Neill (Questionable, likely to play)
- S Harrison Smith (Questionable, DNP Thurs and LP Fri, true question to play)
Best Bets based on Analysis:
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -4.5 (-106) 0.5u via 3ET
Pick: Under 46.5 Total Points (-103) 0.5u via Bet365
This one seems too easy – I guess Darnold could have another great day with a banged up OLine and a better defensive front against him? Nah – this one is all 49ers, with the Viking’s on fraud-watch after layin a whoopin on the Giants D. The Vikes played well on offence with great offensive line play and poor secondary play on the part of the Giants – but I wouldn’t expect the same thing in this spot with two Vikes OLineman banged up and Jordan Addison (WR2) ruled out. Oh – and they’ll have Joey Bosa and Javon Hargrave bringing the pressure in the pass-rush for the Niners – yikes.
Meanwhile – I actually have faith in this MIN defence. DC Flores has his guys slotted in with a heavy-blitz game plan and a lockdown CB in Stephon Gilmore lurking on the perimeter. Harrison Smith is a big part of the defence – but he isn’t the be-all-end-all on this backend with underrated talent galore. Expect the 49ers to put up points – as their run game is elite and Purdy eats with intermediate passes – but not too many points, as I expect that this Vikings D will surprisingly be a tougher test for SF than the Jets were (who would’ve thought I’d say that before Week One).
Game Three: Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key DET Week 2 Injuries:
- DE Marcus Davenport (Doubtful, likely out)
- S Kerby Josephy (Questionable, likely to play)
- OT Penei Sewell (Questionable, DNP Thurs but LP Fri, true question mark)
Key TB Week 2 Injuries:
- OT Luke Goedke (Out)
- DT Calijah Kancey (Out)
- S Antoine Winfield (Out)
Best Bets based on Analysis:
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8 (-109) 0.5u via 3ET
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 21.5 Points (+105) 0.5u via Pinnacle
Good thing DE Aidan Hutchinson rushes primarily at the LT – because this would end up much like the Rams game if Hutchinson rushes from the right. RT Goedke going down hurts the Bucs – but OT Penei Sewell is a much bigger piece for the Lions, and he’s seriously banged up (still expect him to play). In reality – here’s what it comes down to:
- The Bucs offensive scheme didn’t miss a beat with new OC Liam Coen on the sticks – but it was a talent deficient defence with WSH last week. The Detroit D weakness? Their DB room, who gave up over 300 yards to Stafford last week despite the Rams not having a LT. Bucs offensive style? Air the ball out with a sick WR core. That’s not a good mix.
- Meanwhile – the Detroit offence goes as their running game goes. Sure, Jameson or Amon-Ra can gash a defence with success – but first, they have to establish the run for everything to set up. I still expect them to score points and be close in this game – but I see TB scoring more with a big chance of an upset.
Game Four: LA Rams vs Arizona Cardinals
Key LA Week 2 Injuries:
- OG Kevin Dotson (Questionable, LP on Fri, likely to play)
- CB Cobie Durant (Questionable, LP on Fri, likely to play)
Key AZ Week 2 Injuries:
- N/A
Best Bets based on Analysis:
Pick: Los Angeles Rams Moneyline (-105) 0.5u via Bet365
Pick: Arizona Cardinals Under 24.5 (-129) 0.5u via Pinnacle
Don’t be the sucker that bets on this AZ franchise that is 2-13 against the Rams in the Sean McVay era. He always has their number – and things shouldn’t be any different this week with a fully healthy OLine in LA and a stellar offence even without Puka. Let’s not forget – this Cardinals D is dog shit (and they looked like it in Week One vs the Bills).
Meanwhile – I feel like the AZ offensive performance against the Bills D was a bit of a mirage. They were aided by a key TO with good field position and a Special Teams TD to put points up on the board – so if we’re counting beans, I’d say that the Cards O were not responsible for about 9.5 points they put up last week – perfect for this Team Under with an underrated Rams defence that shut down the explosive Lions offence to a significant extent. No Aaron Donald – no problem. They still got pressure, the secondary was better than last year, and the only clear deficiency was the run defence. Good thing they have a much weaker OLine on deck in AZ (Lions ranked as a Top 5 OLine coming into this year – AZ ranked as a Bottom 5). Kill job – incoming.
Game Five: Cincinnati Bengals vs KC Chiefs
Key CIN Week 2 Injuries:
- WR Tee Higgins (Doubtful, DNP all week, likely out)
Key KC Week 2 Injuries:
- N/A
Best Bets based on Analysis:
Pick: KC Chiefs -6.0 (-105) 0.5u via bwin
Pick: Under 48.0 Total Points (-105) 0.5u via Bet365
It seems like the more things change, the more they stay the same: the Chiefs are still the Kings of this league. This is more an indictment on this anemic CIN offence than anything – things can’t get much better going against a KC Defence that severely limited a great offence in BAL.
The Chiefs should roll in this one to the point where they can take their foot off the pedal on offence. I would take their Team Over – but their defence should make mince meat out of this weak OLine with poor playmakers outside of a Jamarr Chase that wasn’t available through the full preseason.
Game Six: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos
Key PIT Week 2 Injuries:
- OG Isaac Seumalo (Out)
- QB Russell Wilson
Key DEN Week 2 Injuries:
- N/A
Best Bets based on Analysis:
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-112) 1.0u via Coolbet
DO NOT ROCK THIS PICK IF RUSSELL WILSON IS STARTING. Don’t trust the guy one bit – but I know what I’m getting out of this offence with J Fields at the helm. In Week One, Fields continuously led scoring drives that never ended up in the end zone. However – DEN’s run defence can be exploited based on what they showed vs Kenneth Walker in Week One. Would you look at that – the success of the Steelers offence hinges on implementing their run game with OC Arthur Smith calling the plays.
In the meantime – things can’t be looking too great for this Denver offence. The SEA defence was pretty damn good – I’ll give them that. But – this Steelers defence is even better, with game-wrecker TJ Watt ready to exploit this Denver OLine that has no chance of solid protection with Bo Nix running all over the place. Is what it is.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Game One: Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots
Pick: Under 39.0 Total Points (-111) 1.0u via LeoVegas
Game Two: San Francisco 49ers vs Minnesota Vikings
Pick: San Francisco 49ers -4.5 (-106) 0.5u via 3ET
Pick: Under 46.5 Total Points (-103) 0.5u via Bet365
Game Three: Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8 (-109) 0.5u via 3ET
Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 21.5 Points (+105) 0.5u via Pinnacle
Game Four: LA Rams vs Arizona Cardinals
Pick: Los Angeles Rams Moneyline (-105) 0.5u via Bet365
Pick: Arizona Cardinals Under 24.5 (-129) 0.5u via Pinnacle
Game Five: Cincinnati Bengals vs KC Chiefs
Pick: KC Chiefs -6.0 (-105) 0.5u via bwin
Pick: Under 48.0 Total Points (-105) 0.5u via Bet365
Game Six: Pittsburgh Steelers vs Denver Broncos
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 (-110) 1.0u via BetVictor