We are back with NFL Football in a Thursday Night shootout in Miami! With Josh Allen single-handedly winning games for both the Bills and fantasy football teams all over the world, we’re expecting a lot of good for this Bills offence to go along with a couple Allen-patented TO’s. On the other side – look at the NFL leader in passing yards after Week One and you’ll see a familiar name – Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa. This man is something else on his home turf, as we saw last week against the Jags – but note that despite his 300+ yard outing, the Dolphins only scored 20 points.
Last Monday Night was on me folks – never trust the Jets, especially in primetime against a perennially good team that despite injuries, still had a good squad. I’m sure the Jets will improve over the year and might pull out a Playoff spot – they faced the 49ers after all, there aren’t many stiffer tests in the League. However, we still have some profit going into this week from last week’s winning record – so it’s good to see the preseason reads weren’t too far off.
The great part about getting plays in for Week Two – we have some tape to grind over to see where certain teams can be exploited. Again, this isn’t going to be perfect, as these guys are still humans that go out there and play a very violent game – intangibles come into play beyond coaching schemes and previous performances. However, this breakdown of the Bills and the Dolphins will go into what I saw from Week One – and where these teams can be exploited based on what we’ve seen so far. So, without further ado, let’s get into the picks and analysis for this Thursday Night treat.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Analysis for BUF Bills vs MIA Dolphins
Buffalo Bills – Analysis Based On Week One vs AZ Cardinals
Result: 34-28 W Buffalo Bills
We called for an Over in this game last week – and boy, did it go Over. This one was a struggle from the beginning for the Bills, as they were down by 10 off the hop due to the pro-gamer/toddler, Kyler Murray, running all over them. Let’s break down both sides of the ball to see what happened.
Bills Defence
Against the Bills defence, the Cards started the game running the ball down the throats of BUF defenders, mixing it up with screens and short slants/RB check downs to plug along and keep the ball moving. The pass-rush got abysmal as they kept driving, and Kyler opened the day with a nice lob pass to the end zone after having a ton of time in the pocket.
In the first half, AZ continued to move the ball on the ground with Conner the Wrecking Ball, and through the air with the RB’s and short/intermediate WR routes. No explosive plays whatsoever – but solid drives that ate up clock. In fact, they ate up so much clock that Josh Allen only threw 5 passes in the 1st half. It was a very conservative gameplan by the Cardinals offence – but it worked wonders against this front-heavy Bills defence that relies on QB pressure due to the departure of key Secondary pieces. On top of that, Kyler’s scrambles kept drives alive when they seemed doomed with 3rd and longs – everything was coming up Cardinals.
Then, in the second half – the Bills defence made its adjustments and the pass-rush started getting home on a Cardinals OLine that had exceeded expectations to that point. As Kyler got into more 3rd and longs, the Bills were more disciplined with their pass rush, and they brought more blitzes. This allowed them to either: (a) contain the running lanes that Kyler found earlier, or (b) bring the pressure to Kyler before he had a chance to escape. The run defence also found its footing – as Cardinals rushers other than Kyler Murray finished the day with 3.4 yards/carry. Again – the play-calling from the Cardinals was quite conservative (could be because they were unexpectedly up 17-10 against the Bills at the Half – or because they’re cowards), but there was a clear change in the trenches (Bills DLine seemed to get a much better push in the second half, and Rousseau (DE) had a career high 3 sacks – so he could just be coming into his own).
Overall, it’s clear this defensive line can bring the noise against subpar to average OLines (I would rank AZ Bottom 5 in that department, maybe Bottom 10 if they’re lucky). However, it was quite jarring to see them have difficulty early with this AZ offence. It looked like the Bills were very susceptible to short passes/RB dump offs, as well as RB screens – which could be trouble with the speed coming out of the MIA backfield (assuming Achane is playing). The Bills D plays a lot of zone (which should be a good thing against this Dolphins team), but we haven’t seen this secondary tested downfield, where there are serious question marks with unproven Safety play and starting standout slot-cornerback Taron Johnson Out (he went down in 1st half of Cards game).
The key for this Bills D against the Dolphins: bring enough pressure without blitzing so that you’re able to speed up Tua’s throws without giving up shot plays. This is much easier said than done, as Tua’s time-to-release average (2.63 seconds) was much faster than Kyler’s (3.30 seconds) in Week One. Something the Bills D have going for them – the Dolphins shouldn’t be able to run the ball (based on the tape the Dolphins put out in Week One). The difficulty comes down to this: Miami can run through the air with their variance of screen plays and quick routes. It’ll be tough playing this Miami offence at home, no doubt about it – but if the Bills have success on D, it’s because they’ve been patient at limiting explosive plays while excelling in short coverage, the pass-rush, and secondary tackling.
Bills Offence
What a horrific start to the season for this Bills offence. They start the day in plus-field position, first drive, and ….. Josh Allen runs himself into a sack and fumbles to turn the ball over. JA loves to do this every once in a while, it’s just his thing. But then, he’ll go out there, put the team on his back, and make up for the mistake. And he tried to do that, on the second drive after hitting paydirt on a QB run. But would you look at that – the OLine took a 15 yard facemask penalty. So they settle for a field goal.
Before you know it (because the Cards ate up so much clock on offence), the Bills are down 17-3 with 2 minutes left in the 2nd quarter. Wow. The thing is – the offence was actually executing, they just didn’t have much time on the field. James Cook was busting off rushes (over 6 yards/carry in 1st half), JA was moving the sticks with his legs, and Bills WR’s were getting open in the intermediate levels of the field. The OLine was holding up very well in pass protection against what is one of the worst pass-rush units in the League (as was to be expected). And yet, the only impressive drive of note was their third and final drive of the first half, where they marched 70 yards in just over 2 minutes to cut the lead to a touchdown.
After the second half and once the Bills defence ended up getting some early stops – this one was a wrap. Allen just kept being a game-wrecker out there, having time in the pocket to dissect the defence while still keeping up production on the ground (both through Allen and Cook). Hell, even Ray Davis got in on some of the action at RB. They just kept leading scoring drive, after scoring drive, until they put this game out of reach.
The keys for Miami in stopping this offence: they must have the athleticism to keep Josh Allen from dominating this game with his escapability, along with good intermediate/deep coverage in the middle of the field. The Bills will try to run the ball, as they’ve shown (even in a negative game script against the Cards), and Allen will test teams both with his legs and his cannon of an arm if he can escape the pocket and get time. If the passrush isn’t getting there consistently, Allen will be able to dictate too much with his dual-threat ability. If James Cook gets going on the ground – everything else opens up for the offence. It’s a tough nut to crack no matter which way you wanna go with this offence.
Miami Dolphins – Analysis Based On Week One vs JAX Jaguars
Result: 20-17 W Miami Dolphins
This game last week between Dolphins and Jags – a very bad beat with our pick of Jags Team Over 23.5. It’s the end of the 3rd/beginning of the 4th quarter, the Jags have 17 on the board, they run a slick inside zone to Etienne, he busts it to the endzone to almost guarantee the 24 points and …… he fumbles it at the 1 after being a little too careless with the ball, resulting in a touchback. The Jags didn’t sniff points after that failure – and the Dolphins went on to win by a field goal after trailing the whole game. Yuppie for me.
Dolphins Defence
Much like the Bills defence in Week One – the Dolphins defence started off slow. However, it was tough for them to get much going with the offence consistently failing to convert first downs. Up until Miami’s last offensive drive of the half, the offence had 4 drives with 21 total plays. They were consistently stonewalled by what looked to be a pretty good Jags D (I expected Jags D to look pretty good with their underrated pieces). That meant that the Dolphins defence had to pick up the slack. And they did – to an extent. Two quick punts forced – but also two touchdowns allowed, along with a field goal to end the half.
The pass rush wasn’t much to write home about, and you noticed the loss of Christian Wilkins in the middle. The Jags were running at will with Bigsby and Etienne (right near 5 yards/carry through the game for the pair), and Lawrence had a lot of time in the first half leading to a big PI call in the endzone on Ramsey and another nice lob to Brian Thomas. This was all behind an OLine that looked very average, with the Tackles showing their true colours more toward the second half.
In the second half – I wouldn’t even say that this defence made a ton of adjustments. There were some, but a lot of their ability to shutout the Jags in the 2nd half came down to two things: (i) they were able to get off the field, and the MIA offence had extended drives in the 4th quarter, helping them get momentum and rest, and (ii) the Jags executed horribly down the stretch with bad play calling and inconsistent OLine play. Granted, we still have to give credit to this defence for 4th & short stops in clutch moments, to go along with a revitalized passrush. I just don’t want to give them too much credit for the 2nd half shutout – as it could’ve easily been 24-7 if Etienne didn’t leave the ball in the wrong arm at the goal line.
Overall, the key to beating this Dolphins defence is quite clear. Establish the run early against this subpar front, opening up play action and intermediate/deep shots where you can take advantage of the DB’s and stretch the field. The tough part for Miami’s defence in the matchup with the Bills – the Bills should be able to establish the run with their solid OLine and James Cook + Allen, and they love to take shots in the middle of the field, downfield, once they have you thinking run. The only way Miami’s defence survives in this matchup – get the pressure, maintain passrush discipline, and make Josh beat you with underneath passes once the run game’s been taken care of. I don’t know about you – but that sounds like a tough gameplan to execute with the Dolphins mediocre pass-rush effort against inferior OLinemen in Jacksonville.
Dolphins Offence
A pretty confusing day out there for the Dolphins offence. I mean, I expected Jacksonville’s D to hold them up a little bit – but I was still expecting 25+ points.
They really seemed to struggle with the run game early, and the OLine was not getting much of a push against a mid to above-average DLine. They could not rush the ball successfully – and instead relied on the screen/RB dump off game to move the ball. Even that wasn’t working that well, with the only positive offensive drive coming at the end of the half where the Dolphins marched 70 yards over 12 plays to convert on the TD. The OLine looked good in pass pro on that drive, but the Jags still did a great job in the first half of keeping everything underneath with limited explosive plays.
Then – the second half happened. I believe you can only keep these Miami guys down for so long until they get going – and boy, did they. Two monster throws to Waddle and Tyreek and this is a completely different game. The OLine held up well in pass pro (for the most part), and the Jags finally caved with their Cover 3, allowing two deep post routes to be their choice of execution. The Dolphins offence definitely shook off the rust and started to find plays – even if the run game couldn’t get going with a lack of push from the OLine. It was a classic Miami 300+ yard half – and there are a couple things that standout which may make this one a tough outing for the Bills defence.
First of all – the Bills defence struggled with RB screens and dump offs vs the Cards. Well, Miami loves the screens and dump offs, and they’ll likely implement them even more with Mostert Out and Achane as a gametime decision (although the loss of Achane snaps does limit the upside of these plays). Further, the Miami OLine played solid in Week One – with 4 of 5 starters earning Top 10 PFF grades at their positions (this showed up on tape). The Bills rely on front-end pressure to make things easier on their banged up, young DB room – which won’t be easy against Terron Armstead and Co. The good part about it all is – the Bills likely won’t have to deal with a rush game like they did last week going against Kyler and Conner. Will this allow them to get more of a pass rush against a much better Dolphins OLine and faster skill players + a quicker time to release by Tua? That’s a tough sell.
With all that being said – the Dolphins offence really didn’t look too impressive in last week’s game other than the two huge explosive plays that led to touchdowns. That could be rust to start the season – or teams might be finally starting to figure out this MIA offence. Regardless, I’d hate to bet against them putting up points.
Best Bets for BUF Bills vs MIA Dolphins
Pick: Buffalo Bills +3.0 (-122) 0.5u (via Tony Bet)
Pick: Buffalo Bills Over 24.5 (+128) 0.5u (via Pinnacle)
Everything seems to be coming up Bills for me in this one. You see from above that the Bills have the exact gameplan that I believe is necessary to break down this MIA defence (running the ball with Allen and Cook, followed by play-action and intermediate/deep shots). The OLine for the Bills showed out against a bad Cards pass-rush unit last week – now they go up against a slightly better (only barely) pass-rush front with Miami. Expect them to roll in this one.
The thing is – this Bills defence might give up a few big plays. With the good OLine play of MIA and the DB struggles for Buffalo, I expect some points coming through on the Dolphins side of things. However, I also expect points for Buffalo – and when push comes to shove late, I believe it will be the Bills who will be able to get the lead and salt the game away late with a dynamic run game (or, at the very least, make this one a really close game).
Lock in the Team Over and the Points – let’s have a fun one tonight.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Best Bets for BUF Bills vs MIA Dolphins
Pick: Buffalo Bills +3.0 (-122) 0.5u (via Tony Bet)
Pick: Buffalo Bills Over 24.5 (+128) 0.5u (via Pinnacle)