Wow – now that was a great week of NFL Football! Week One is about to wrap up with Monday Night Football kicking off tonight – but we’d be remiss if we didn’t go through our best bets performances so far this week. Sunday, we played the whole slate with 20 bets – and broke even. It was a little disappointing with some bad beats hitting in the afternoon (Commander’s garbage time TD to break the Team Under by 1 point for example), but we can’t be too mad about 14-9-1 (1 push) for $241 dollars of profit if your betting unit is $100.
The best part about post-Week 1 betting – we get to study the tape and have some actual data to draw from. While we can’t overreact to everything that happened this past week, the baseline of information to draw from makes this less of a projection game, and more data driven. With all of that being said, we have an absolute doozy on the docket tonight with the NY Jets taking on the 49ers. Jets fans have hope yet again after the NY Nightmare of last season – and I really can’t blame them. On the other side of this matchup, the Niners finally loosened up the purse strings and got deals done with their two holdouts, Aiyuk and Trent Williams, giving them hope for another Super Bowl appearance. This will be an interesting game one way or the other – and should give us some clarity on who’s running the show in both the AFC and the NFC. So, without further ado, let’s get to the breakdown with our picks.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Best Bets for NY Jets vs SF 49ers
Pick: NY Jets +4.5 Points (-110) 0.5u (via Party Poker)
Alright – if I get burned on this one, I’ll learn my lesson with betting on this Jets team. But after breaking down both these teams with their personnel changes, coaching changes, scheme changes, and current health – I can’t help but have confidence in this Jets team being close in this one, with a very good possibility of winning the game outright. Let’s get into why the Jets will, at the very least, lose this game by 4 or less.
The only logical place to start is with the Jets offence – as there will be a lot of people on both sides of the argument when it comes to how effective they will be. I’m taking the side of the talking heads who believe this Jets offence will be successful – primarily because of the investments they’ve made in the offensive line.
Last year, the Jets OLine allowed for a 10.65% sack rate (29th in the NFL). Jets’ passers collectively ranked as the worst in the NFL in pass yards per game at 171.7. Now, I’m not only pinning the blame on this OLine, as the QB situation in NY was struggle-bus city after losing Aaron Rodgers on their first offensive drive of the season. However, even prime Rodgers would have had struggles with that offensive line. The only stud they had on this unit in 2023, Alijah Vera Tucker, only played 5 games due to injuries. So what did NY do to address this shit-sandwich in the trenches?
A lot actually. They started by signing bookend Tackles in Morgan Moses and Tyron Smith. Both of these guys were Top 10 in NFL OT PFF grading last year, making this one of the best Tackle duos in the NFL. While they aren’t the most spry at their advanced age – they’re solid, and they’ve also got some depth to lean on should one of them go down. One of the depth pieces, Olu Fashanu, was selected in the 1st Round of the 2024 NFL Draft, and was one of the highly regarded Tackles in the class. It’s nice to have a backup option of this calibre with age being a concern for the two starters. Vera Tucker is back and healthy at Guard, Tippmann at Center has another year under his belt with a decent showing as a Rookie last year, and John Simpson comes over from the Ravens (was a starter their last year) to man the other Guard spot. PFF projects this unit as the 5th best in the NFL going into 2024 – and I can’t disagree based on all of my analysis. The improvements to the trenches should pay dividends for all Jets’ skill position players on the field, including a run game that was 14th in the NFL in yards/rush last year (4.2).
We all know who Breece Hall is at this point – he’s him. This guy put up 1,585 yards from scrimmage last year with one of the worst offensive units in the League. Yes – he was the focal point of the offence, and the efficiency wasn’t staggering. But c’mon now – with this OLine in tow, how are defences going to stop Breece? I imagine it’s going to be very difficult, especially when Breece is almost as effective as a pass-catcher as he is as a rusher. Expect at least a few screens throughout this game which could lead to very explosive plays. Establishing the run game early in this matchup should give Aaron Rodgers alot to work with.
However – maybe it’s tougher than we thought for an older QB to come back from an achilles tear, as Kirk Cousins didn’t exactly look like himself when he played the Steelers. However, if you watched that one, you would’ve noticed that TJ Watt was an absolute gamewrecker, blowing up the passing offence with highlight after highlight. Now, some of the blame has to go to Cousins and some physical regression with the injury – but I believe Rodgers won’t have as much trouble. Rodgers was THE elite QB of the past generation, both physically and when it comes to his processing. Call me crazy, but with all of Rodgers’ experience in this system (his guy from GB, Nathaniel Hackett, is running the offence), I believe that Rodgers will be able to pick apart matchups, mixing in good audibles at the line to check into more advantageous plays. It’s my belief the guy with one of the best arms in NFL history still has some steam left on his fastball, and Garrett Wilson is one of the most elite separators at the WR position. While this offence may start a little slow, I expect things to click with the run game establishing play-action shots and WR/RB screens – which should really present problems for this 49ers defence. But why would this nasty 49ers defence struggle so much with that kind of gameplan?
Well, the 49ers moved on from their DC, Steve Wilks, following the Super Bowl loss last year. Wilks led this defence to the #5 rank in rush yards allowed per game (98.7), in part due to the game scripts through the season with the Niners leading a lot of games. However, there was no doubt that the “explosive rushes” of 20+ yards were really off the table against this defence, as the LB duo of Greenlaw (who is still Out to start this season after getting hurt in the Super Bowl) and Warner were incredibly athletic, and Wilks wasn’t too big on blitzing, allowing the Secondary and LB’s a buffer to make tackles in the run game. Put in other words – Wilks made his DLine and Edge players go one-on-one with OLines the majority of the time so he could focus on more complex coverages in the Secondary. The new DC, Nick Sorenson, will be making some changes in that regard.
From what Sorenson has shown so far – this defence is reverting back to more complex passrushes with simpler coverages in the Secondary. There will be a lot more exotic blitz looks schemed up, and Nick Bosa comes off the Edge with authority on every snap. The thing is – when a team increases blitz rate and goes more vanilla in pass coverage, things open up for the run game, screen game, and play action. With all of the pass-rushers going upfield, there’s a lot of room for RB’s to find holes and break off explosive plays. If that’s the case – they’re playing right into the hands of this Jets team, especially with the projected improvements in the OLine and Rodgers pre-snap reads to set up protections.
This has me feeling good about this Jets offence. While I don’t expect them to put up 30+, I believe they’ll be good enough at controlling the ball and grinding out this defence to push this unit over the edge tonight.
Pick: San Francisco Team Under 23.5 Points (-105) 0.5u (via Bet365)
However, it’s not just the Jets offence and their advantageous matchup tonight that gives me faith. Considering the context surrounding both the Jets defence and the Niners offence – I’m feeling like this one might be a touch rough for the contenders from Golden State.
Let’s start with the Jets defence. Haason Reddick who? I don’t get this dud holding out when he has no leverage and is on the back nine of his career, but all the power to him I guess. The thing is – this Jets defence doesn’t need him, as they have one of the most all-around elite units in the NFL in the last decade.
Things start with the Jets secondary. Sauce Gardner locks up almost any WR1 with ease as CB1, and his compatriot on the other side, DJ Reed, is one of the best CB2’s in the League (PFF rating of 77.9, 16th out of 127 CB’s). The slot CB, Michael Carter, also ranks as one of the best corners in the league according to PFF (12th out of 127). Chuck Clark was added at Safety, a solid starter in his days with Ravens, and Tony Adams is an average starter at the other Safety spot. Shit – this Secondary has teeth.
Going to the Linebackers – things don’t fall off. CJ Mosley had the best PFF grade of his career last year at 32 years old, and Quincy Williams, the other ILB, also earned a career high PFF grade and has only improved year-after-year. The added bonus of this duo – they weren’t just great at stopping the run, as they both had 85+ PFF coverage grades placing them 2nd and 1st among linebackers. Filthy.
Honestly, the only part of this defence that might not be considered elite is their defensive line and pass-rushers. The loss of Bryce Huff does stand out (10 sacks for the Jets last year) – but that would be overlooking all the depth they have on the DLine. Jermaine Johnson, DL, improved his PFF pass-rush grade from 64.6 as a rookie to 73.7 last year – and will only look to improve with more experience. Further, Will MacDonald generated 12 pressures on 99 pass-rush snaps as a Rookie last year – so it’s likely he will make an impact with more time starting this year. Lastly – the Jets have a Top 3 DT in the League in Quinnen Williams, who excels both as a pass-rusher and run stopper (122 QB pressures to go along with 23 TFL’s in the last 2 years). This pass-rush still has tons of juice – and it doesn’t hurt that the 49ers OLine is most vulnerable in the interior, where Quinnen should have quite the feast tonight.
This 49ers OLine is due to take a big step back. While they finally have Trent Williams, Future HOF LT, back in the building after giving him more money – that’s about all they have to look forward to (not taking into account that even Trent could struggle initially due to his lack of preseason conditioning). The other 4 starters on the OLine all have PFF grades below 67. Their best interior starter is the Center, Brendel, and he only ranked as the 16th Center out of 36 on PFF. Shanahan’s scheme does help cover up deficiencies – but pass protection was already a very big problem against an elite Chiefs’ defence in the Super Bowl last year (KC’s D generated a season-high 9 unblocked pressures that night). Now, a very similar player to Chris Jones (KC DT) gets his shot at rushing the passer tonight – how do you think it’s gonna go?
The only thing that could save this 49ers offence is their immense talent at the skill positions – but even these guys have some question marks going into this game. Purdy has never been truly elite without solid protection and an established run game, Aiyuk may have struggles with his late holdout preventing integration in the offensive gameplan, and McCaffrey is banged up (Questionable, he likely plays) with a double-injury (achilles and calf). Even at their best – the Niners offence would have difficulties with this Jets defence. Right now – they are definitely not at their best.
That’s why I’m pairing the SF Team Under with the Jets spread – while this could be a low-scoring game overall, I expect the Jets to hold off this Niner’s offence and pull out the greasy W (or at least cover the 4 points). Let’s roll degens.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with more NFL picks. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Best Bets for NY Jets vs SF 49ers
Pick: NY Jets +4.5 Points (-110) 0.5u (via Party Poker)
Pick: San Francisco Team Under 23.5 Points (-105) 0.5u (via Bet365)