Well, it seems like we’ve waited ages for the NFL season to get here. Alas, we have a full slate of NFL Football this Sunday, and the excitement couldn’t be any higher. Along with a full day of games comes a huge responsibility – providing analysis and picks for every game based on offseason deep-dives into personnel and coaching changes. Luckily – we’ve done just that, diving straight into the research to provide the most informed reads possible. We already did this for the Thursday night game between KC and Baltimore, and the Friday night game between Philly and Green Bay, and the reads played out perfectly with some exciting finishes.
Now, we set our sights on 12 morning & afternoon games taking place on Sunday. We’re going to split these picks into 2 articles (parts) so they’re more digestible – one coming out Saturday afternoon (right now) and the other coming later Saturday night. Some games have one pick, some have three picks. Everything is guided by the analysis – with “line value” put on the back-burner due to the lack of insight even sportsbooks have when it comes to Week 1 of the NFL. There’s a chance to win big at the beginning of the season with advanced knowledge – and that’s what we’re looking to do here. Without further ado, let’s get to the first matchup between Arizona and Buffalo.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
2024 NFL Regular Season: Week 1 Best Bets – Part 1
Game: Arizona Cardinals vs Buffalo Bills
Pick: Over 47.0 Total Points (-110) 1.0u Bet365
Points, points, points. This one basically comes down to two different things: (i) AZ has a high-upside offence going up against a defence that yet again comes into the year with injuries, and (ii) Buffalo can exploit what has to be one of the more doggie doo doo defences in the NFL. Let’s get deeper into those two points.
AZ’s offence: We all know how much Arizona struggled last year on both sides of the ball. However, when Kyler Murray returned at QB in Week 10, they were 10th in Estimated Points Added (EPA, an advanced metric to show how effective an offence is), 10th in yards per play, and 2nd in rush yards per game. While this OLine may not show much promise on paper, they were effective at creating run lanes, and they’ve only gotten better with good depth FA signings in Evan Brown and Jonah Williams. Pair that with one of the best WR’s to come out of the draft in some time (Marvin Harrisson Jr.) joining a WR room that was devoid of talent last year, and things are definitely looking up. Trey Mcbride will still be there, and serves as one of the best young TE’s in the game. OC Petzig returns as the play-caller after a pretty solid season last year, all things considered.
Meanwhile, the Bills defence may have their struggles early. The safety room was overhauled with Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer leaving in FA. Rapp is a decent replacement at one spot, but the other spot is a serious question mark where Rookie Cole Bishop is listed as the backup to Damar Hamlin. In addition to that, you have Matt Milano (All-Pro LB) on the IR again this year after going down in Week 5 last year. Size will be a problem at LB. While I do like their pass rush options (Rousseau and Ed Oliver), I don’t believe they will make up for the other deficiencies on this team. Further, the DLine is built more for passrush success than run defence success – which is right where the Cards have an advantage.
Moving on to the Bills offence. Some might not have belief in this offence after the departures of Diggs and Gabe Davis. Don’t count me among them. When the Bills changed OC’s last year to Joe Brady in Week 11, things shifted completely away from Diggs/Davis to Allen/Cooks/Kincaid. For reference, Cook started the first 10 weeks of the year 20th in carries. From weeks 11-18, he was 10th. Allen’s designed runs went from 17 with the previous OC to 35 with Brady. Kincaid finished last year with 2 80+ yard games. Now, Brady has a gaggle of supporting-cast WR’s to go along with those 3 main weapons. In terms of points-per-game, Brady led the Bills to a 29.3 ppg mark in his first 4 appearances as OC, a mark that would place them 2nd in the NFL season-long. The OLine is still solid, with some turnover at Center but overall a good unit that ranks 8th on PFF’s 2024 list. Don’t bet against a Bills offence with Josh Allen at the helm. It’s like betting on Castellanos not to get a HR after a devastating event.
Lastly, the Cardinals defence. This one isn’t going to take long because I’d just be putting lipstick on a pig. I like Gannon as the defensive play caller, but past that, this D is devoid of talent anywhere other than the Secondary. I mean, this was a bottom 5 defence last year for a reason (31st in ppg allowed with 26.8). One of the only pass-rushers with any skill on this roster, BJ Ojulari, is now Out as well. Expect the Bills’ newly enhanced run game to destroy this defence (who ranked 32nd in rush yards allowed/game) to the point where Josh Allen can take advantage on play-action in the pass game.
Game: Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints
Pick: Carolina Panthers +4.0 (-110) 1.0u Bet365
I’m sorry Saints fans – you’re in for a tough year. Dennis Allen might be the most hateable human on the face of the planet. And that’s not even why I’m betting against the Saints in this spot.
The Panthers – actually my bounceback team of the year if I had to put a label on things. Let’s start with the offence.
The biggest issue on that side of the ball last year – the OLine. They were T-2nd worst in sacks allowed with 65 sacks on the year – and it wasn’t like they were dealing with a mobile QB that makes a habit of breaking the pocket. Bryce Young was left for dead out there. So what did the Panthers do to address this? They signed two of the best Interior OL in this FA class, with Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis running the show up front. Ekwonu at LT keeps progressing as a young bookend, and Moton is one of the most underrated RT’s in the league. Expect a big boost for Carolina in this regard.
That’s not even mentioning the new offensive scheme with Dave Canales taking the reigns as the offensive play-caller. This guy turned the ship around in Tampa with a creative pass game and an ability to utilize his playmakers to the best of their abilities. Now, he’s coaching up #1 overall NFL Draft pick Bryce Young at QB, with additional weapons at WR in Diontae Johnson (one of the best separators in the NFL based on advanced analytics) and 1st Round Rookie Xavier Legette (country boy with insane athleticism).
Chuba Hubbard is a relatively solid workhorse back – making this a prime spot for the Panther’s to show off their new offence against a defence that’s on the wrong side of the age curve.
That’s right – this isn’t the Saints defence of years past. I’ll admit, they still have the juice at DB. Lattimore is a perennial stud at the position, and Adebo is an underrated counterpart at CB. Tyran Mathieu is still playing at a high level in the Safety spot, despite possible regression this year with his advanced age for a DB (32). They were 9th as a defence in pass yards allowed with 207.3 per game. However, that’s not taking into account: (i) Demario Davis losing a step this year as a coverage LB after being solid for so many years, as he just turned 35, and (ii) the fact that they play in the NFC South, so the competition level of ATL, CAR, and TB has to be considered.
Further, this DLine just isn’t it. Cam Jordan looked like he regressed even last year – now he’s 35 and he’s trying to hold together a very average defensive front. Rush yards allowed per game in 2023? 22nd in the League at nearly 120 rush yards allowed/game. Sack rate in 2023? 29th in the League at 5.74%. If you’re telling me the answer to this problem is the addition of Chase Young in FA (currently listed as backup on the depth chart) with his regression the last two years – well, then you must have more faith in reclamation projects than I.
The Saints offence is the same as it was last year – with a new OC. Carr had tons of passing yardage last year (surprisingly ranking 13th in the league) – but he was not an impressive QB. He’s a game-manager at best, and I don’t even know if he can play at that high of a level anymore. The biggest issue with this offence – the OLine. Ranked 31st on PFF’s 2024 list, there is not much to be optimistic about when it comes to the trenches. At least they added a quality OL in the Draft in Fuaga, one of the better rated Tackles. He’s still a Rookie – and he’s their starting LT to go along with one of the worst starting Tackles in the league at RT (Trevor Penning). Other than the C, Erik McCoy, this front should struggle. While I’m somewhat encouraged by the increased motion new OC Kubiak will introduce into this system, it’s going to be difficult to have any time to throw behind this paper-thin front. The run game? Well, Kamara isn’t getting any younger, and he averaged 3.9 yards/carry behind almost the exact same OLine. Bad news bears.
On the other side of the coin – this Panther’s defence filled key holes in the offseason. They added an underrated ILB in Josey Jewell to help both the run game and the coverage game in the middle, something they struggled with last year (23rd in rush yards allowed). Another area of need? The pass-rush, as they were ranked 31st in the NFL in Sack Rate. What did they do? Added a bonafide Edge in Jadaveon Clowney, fresh off a 9.5 sack season in BAL. With Jaycee Horn still manning the secondary, this unit should take a step up after finishing 3rd in opponents pass yards per game allowed under the same play-caller.
This all lines up for a good showing by the Panthers after a very dismal year. I thought about the moneyline, but what can I say: If they give me the points, I’m going to take them.
Game: Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
Picks: Houston Texans -2.5 (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Picks: Houston Texans Team Over 27.5 Points (+130) 0.5u Bet365
Picks: Indianapolis Colts Team Under 23.5 Points (-125) 0.5u Bet365
Yessir – we have a triple play on deck for this exciting matchup. What has me leaning so heavy toward the Texans?
Well, I believe that this Colts offence is set to struggle against an elite unit in this Houston Texans defence. Young studs on the Texans D like Will Anderson Jr. and Derek Stingley Jr. should progress with another year in this Demeco Ryans system under their belt. The Texans also addressed their biggest need (pass coverage help after finishing last year 20th in pass yards allowed per game) by stacking DB depth with 42nd overall pick Kamari Lassiter and Jeff Okudah (former top 5 pick) added to the ranks. Oh, and they added Danielle Hunter, a top 5 Edge in the League, to bookend Anderson. This unit should be lights-out with an experienced play-caller at the helm.
The issue with this matchup for the Colts – they love to run the ball (they were bottom 10 in pass rate last year, even without Anthony Richardson scrambling around out there after his season ended early). And they should love to run the ball – they have the 3rd best OLine going into 2024 according to PFF, and Jonathan Taylor is a beast in the backfield. The thing is – Houston was 2nd in the League last year in yards/carry allowed, only giving up a meagre 3.6 yards/carry. That tells me that the Colts will likely have to pass a lot more in this one. Call me crazy, but I’m not sold on ARich winning the game with his arm considering his low completion % coming out of College and offseason shoulder surgery. Give me the Team Under on the Colts.
Meanwhile, I believe the Texans offence will run right over the Colts. Offensively, they only bolstered an already stunning set of weapons with Joe Mixon now catching passes out of the backfield and Stefon Diggs providing speed at WR on the outside. They still have a decent OLine that looks alot like last years’ – good in pass pro and below average in run blocking. The thing is – the Texans shouldn’t have to run the ball much against the Colts (though they could with the Colts owning the 2nd worst run defence in the NFL for 2023) – because they’ll be able to throw the ball all over the field with the JAGs in the Colts DB room.
The front four are decent with DeForest Buckner leading the way at DT, and the Linebacker core is average. However, Indy’s D is completely devoid of DB talent. Everyone had them in on LaJarius Snead, or one of the top CB’s in the draft, after finishing last year bottom 15 in pass yards allowed/game and pass yards allowed/play. Instead of doing that, the Colts decided that doing nothing would be fine. That …. was a mistake. Book the Texans Team Over.
If you’ve read all that – I think you know where I’m going with this spread. -2.5 points is much too low for what should be a domination-station performance by Houston.
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Miami Dolphins
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars Team Over 23.5 Points (+110) 1.0u Bet365
Let’s be honest – we all know Miami is likely to score 30+ at home. They did this alot last year with THE most explosive offence in the NFL.
However, this Jags defensive unit is looking a little dangerous with their depth at all three levels – and the Miami Team Over appears too steep – so I’m taking the Jags Team Over with Miami’s key defensive losses and a revamped Jags offence with the same offensive scheme.
The Jags offence. Pretty damn good at the skill positions. I’m a Trevor Lawrence believer, and attribute his late season fall-off last year to multiple injuries with a rag-tag OLine that also dealt with missing guys. I think he’ll be a big surprise this year, as he has all the skills you need to be a Franchise QB. Travis Ettiene on the ground is nasty, and I like this WR core of BTJ, Gabe Davis, and Christian Kirk, better than last year’s WR group (I am a huge Brian Thomas Jr. fan – the Justin Jefferson comps popped into my head the moment he was drafted). Overall – there should be no problem here.
The only issues may come on the OLine – but with renewed health this year and one more year of chemistry, there should be some improvement. PFF has them 23rd on the 2024 list, but I see them more as middle of the pack, especially with the signing of Mitch Morse at Center after his successful tenure with the Bills.
That all being said – this OLine just has to play average with the lack of DLine and pass-rush options on the Dolphins defence. Their two best Edge rushers, Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, are still banged up to start the season. Phillips will be on a snap count, but Chubb is ruled out. That’s okay though, because they still have Christian Wilkins at DT to hold things together, right? Wrong, he’s gone to LV and was swapped with the very old Calais Campbell, making this a very precarious unit up front. Chop Robinson, the Edge they took in the 1st Round of the Draft, is explosive and athletic as hell. However, he is not an NFL-level pass-rusher at this point in his career – so how are they going to challenge this Jags OLine?
I don’t think they will, and further, Jalen Ramsey has the Questionable tag heading into Sunday. The Dolphins changed their DC from Vic Fangio to Anthony Weaver. Weaver was a defensive assistant coach in Baltimore, so his system should look very similar to the Ravens defensive scheme. There isn’t a lot of blitzing and the boxes are light – which isn’t a good mix for this defence, as they will lack the ability to get to the pass-rusher with only four rushers – at least early in the season.
That all sounds like a Jags Team Over to me.
Game: Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants
Picks: Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Picks: Under 41.0 Total Points (+110) 0.5u Bet365
Oooooo – this one’s going to be a nasty one. Well, not every game in Week 1 can be exciting, so let’s take the most obvious plays based on the analysis.
The Vikings OLine is very solid, ranking Top 10 on PFF’s 2024 list with two of the best Tackles around (O’Neill and Darrisaw). They added Aaron Jones to form a dynamic tandem in the backfield with incumbent Ty Chandler, and J Jetta is at full steam to go along with sophomore-standout Addison. The playcalling will be superb with O’Connell still managing the playsheet. Call me crazy, but Sam Darnold might actually look okay with this supporting cast. I don’t see him looking good though.
Further, the Vikings actually have a pretty damn good defence, with a middle-of-the-pack pass rush now that Danielle Hunter is swapped for Greenard on the Edge. However, the blitz-scheming DC Flores does on the backend makes this all-around solid front produce pressure after pressure. Add to that the addition of Stephon Gilmore (great CB, though getting up there in age) and the return of two stud Safeties in Bynum and Harrison Smith – I have belief this could be a Top 10 defence.
The Giants OLine is worse than the Vikings, but it’s still middle of the pack with the signings of G Runyan and T Eluemunor. I’d say Daniel Jones is about just as good as Darnold – which is to say he’s pretty dog shit. And besides the outstanding Rookie Malik Nabers at WR, there’s really no talent to write home about with the skill positions. This will be a below average offence – but they’ll have their games.
Meanwhile, I have optimism with this Giants defence. The front is just about as solid as they come, with the addition of Pro Bowler Brian Burns in an offseason trade to go along with Dexter Lawrence (All-Pro at DT) and Kavon Thibodeux (coming off a breakout sophomore season at Edge). This team should not have issues getting after the QB. Further, with the new defensive scheme brought in by Titans ex-DC Shane Bowen, the CB’s won’t be left on an island constantly in man-to-man as they were in Wink Martindale’s system last year. Shane favours zone, and I think that change will help the underdeveloped DB room.
All in all – you can see why I love the Under. Two pretty darn good defences in my eyes. With the Vikings offensive skill group and OLine advantage over the Giants, I’ll take their spread in what should be an absolute slobberknocker (or possibly a snoozer).
Game: New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Under 41.0 Total Points (-110) 1.0u Bet365
Yuck – two Unders in a row. Regardless, the Under is the play here thanks to the lowly Patriots.
In all seriousness – the NE defence really isn’t all that bad. Their DB room is solid, the pass-rush is right around average with the loss of Judon, and they’re very good at stopping the run (#1 in the NFL last year only allowing 3.3 yards/carry). While there might be a touch of regression with Belichick giving up the play-calling, this defence should be ready to play for Jerod Mayo, and he has a lot of experience with this scheme after his years as an assistant coach with NE. They get 1st Round stud sophomore CB Christian Gonzales back – and things are looking up on this side of the ball for NE.
We all know Cincy’s offence is solid and should be successful – but with the combination of a bad NE offence and a solid NE defence, how much will they really have to score (especially with Tee Higgins Doubtful and Jamarr Chase Questionable)? NE has one of the worst OLines in the league according to the PFF ranks, they bring back Jacoby Brisket Brissett at QB to be a below-average signal caller, and the talent at WR is minimal. While NE replaced their OC this year (Thank God), it was with Van Pelt, a first time play-caller that was an offensive assistant with the Browns last year (Maybe Not Thank God). Van Pelt should implement a run-heavy offence based on the personnel and his connection with the Browns scheme, making an Over here almost impossible.
While Cincy doesn’t have a very good defence – they don’t really need one to stop NE. The Bengals lost DJ Reader (Pro Bowl DT) to FA, but signed Sheldon Rankins (solid) to replace him. On top of that, they bring back a defence that is much the same after finishing middle of the pack last year in ppg allowed (20th, allowing 22.6 ppg). In fact, the DB room might even be better with Geno Stone added to the mix at Safety (coming off a breakout 7 interception year last year with Baltimore).
Again – all the signs point to the Under.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article tonight with more NFL picks for Sunday’s slate. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 NFL Regular Season: Week 1 Best Bets – Part 1
Game: Arizona Cardinals vs Buffalo Bills
Pick: Over 47.0 Total Points (-110) 1.0u Bet365
Game: Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints
Pick: Carolina Panthers +4.0 (-110) 1.0u Bet365
Game: Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts
Picks: Houston Texans -2.5 (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Picks: Houston Texans Team Over 27.5 Points (+130) 0.5u Bet365
Picks: Indianapolis Colts Team Under 23.5 Points (-125) 0.5u Bet365
Game: Jacksonville Jaguars vs Miami Dolphins
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars Team Over 23.5 Points (+110) 1.0u Bet365
Game: Minnesota Vikings vs New York Giants
Picks: Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Picks: Under 41.0 Total Points (+110) 0.5u Bet365
Game: New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Under 41.0 Total Points (-110) 1.0u Bet365