We got NFL Football on a Friday – giving all the pigskin sickos one more fix before we get to our first NFL Sunday! While the players may have safety concerns running through the favelas of Brazil, it is great to see the NFL grow the game, and they did a really good job setting this matchup for the overseas crowd. The Total in this game gives a good indication of where everyone thinks this one’s going – shootout city.
The Eagles definitely have a lot to prove early on this season after their monumental collapse in the back-half of 2023, followed by a peepee whack in the playoffs by a Bucs team that had zero postseason expectations. Bad news: they kept “certified goof” Sirianni as the Head Coach. Good news: they brought in a new OC with loads of experience and a ton of motion to get defences off balance. However; change also had to come on defence, where the Eagles backend also fell apart down the stretch. Out with the old DC, in with the new DC in Vic Fangio, a highly regarded DC that ran elite units in Chicago, but failed to replicate that success in Miami last year with pretty good skill position players. The DB room has been overhauled, and the defence will have a much different look when compared to the 2023 iteration.
On the other side of things, Green Bay brings back largely the same offensive structure with a revamped defensive scheme. Jordan Love should only improve from last years’ breakout performance, the WR core is deep as ever, and Josh Jacobs is going to have to be the bellcow RB due to injuries. Pair that all with a pretty decent OLine (ranked Top 15 by PFF for 2024) and success should follow. When it comes to the defence – we have a new DC to replace Joe Barry and his porous run defence from last year. The new play-caller for the backend, Jeff Hafley, hasn’t coached an NFL team in 4-5 years, and was never the leading defensive coordinator when he was in the NFL (coached DBs). While Green Bay returns some nice pieces on defence, paired with the addition of solid Safety Xavier McKinney, it may be a slow start due to the acclimation process that likely occurs with a first time NFL play-caller. We’ve seen the “College Coach” experience fail one too many times to be completely sold on this unit (watch that finger Urban).
We have one confident bet for the night – and it may not be the popular pick due to external factors at play with an overseas game on a Friday Night. Regardless, we’re taking the shot on an exciting game. Without further ado, let’s break down our favourite play.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
NFL Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers:
Pick: Over 49.5 Points Total (-110) 1.0u Bet365
I wouldn’t fault anyone for favouring the Under due to the unfamiliarity of the atmosphere in Brazil and everything that goes into preparing for a Game Week overseas. The thing is – it’s not just offences that go through this unfamiliarity – defences do as well. Couple that with two solid QB’s and experienced coaches with well-rounded offensive units …. I’m going Over all day here folks.
Let’s start with the Eagles offence. I’m really encouraged by the hiring of Kellen Moore as OC after a dismal season as the Chargers OC. If you look back at his tenure in LA on paper, it might look like he wasn’t a successful play-caller. However, you have to remember that in the second half of last season, the Chargers dealt with injuries including: (a) Justin Herbert’s fucked up hand, (b) Keenan Allen’s body falling apart after a massive workload, and (c) Ekeler having to tape his achilles to the bottom of his foot in order to get out there and play. LA may have only averaged 20.4 ppg last year (21st in the NFL), but through week 10, they were averaging 25.9 ppg (would be 7th in the NFL). Kellen runs a ton of motion prior to the snap (58.4% of snaps), which is a style we’ve seen be extremely successful with Miami and McDaniels motion-heavy offence. It helps keep defences off-balance in the coverage game, and the Eagles ran the least amount of motion last year in NFL (27.6% of snaps). Pair the scheme/motion increase with nasty weapons at WR in AJ Brown and Devonta Smith – and things look mighty explosive.
Where things may regress (to an extent) for this offence is in the trenches, where the HOF Center and connective tissue of this OLine, Jason Kelce, finally retired. Cam Jurgens replaces Kelce at Center after playing Guard for the majority of his career, and “next man up” Tyler Steen takes the starting Guard spot with a mediocre record of play to this point. Regardless, PFF still has the Eagles ranked as the 2nd OLine coming into this year, and the returning studs on this unit (Mailata, Dickerson, and Lane Johnson) should provide Jurgens and Steen with solid support. All that being said – with Saquon Barkley added as the bellcow back in Philly, the run lanes might not even have to be that big. The guy is a stud, and we’ve seen Moore have success with a star RB in Dallas years ago when Zeke tore up the league.
Overall, I expect this unit to look much like the LA Chargers offence that started Week 1 last year. That game ended up as a 36-34 loss to Miami. I’m not saying the score is going to be that high – but it’s encouraging to see that Kellen Moore can have his guys locked and loaded to start the year.
Meanwhile, this Packers defence is a big question mark. But, let’s start with the positives. It’s easy to identify Xavier McKinney as Green Bay’s most impactful FA signing after subpar safety play plagued their backend over the past few years. That will help a coverage unit that was middle of the pack last year in passing yards allowed per game (13th). The personnel on this unit boasts a lot of talent, with studs like Rashan Gary at Edge, Kenny Clark at DT, and Jaire Alexander as CB1. The issue is …. the run defence was a huge concern last year (they ranked 28th in the league in rush yards allowed per game), and Green Bay has now handed the defensive play-calling reigns to a first-time NFL play-caller who was coaching at Boston College for the last 3 years. While Joe Barry (the ex-DC) obviously had his issues implementing a “Vic Fangio-like” defensive scheme last year – I’m not exactly a huge fan of turning to an inexperienced guy to lead a skilled unit.
We’ve seen through the preseason that the new DC, Jeff Hafley, relies heavily on defenders getting off the ball quickly and getting upfield to the quarterback. The concern with this: Philly is a great offence on the ground, with Saquon and Hurts itching to get up field. When the defence attacks deep into the backfield with a quarterback-attack focus, this opens up run lanes where even the most average RB can get yardage. Couple that with a Top 5 OLine and 2 of the most athletic players at their positions (Saquon and Hurts), and it looks alot like Philly is going to blow this one up on offence. Book it.
Now – on to the Green Bay offence. What’s not to like about this unit? Lafleur remains the offensive play-caller with 5 straight years of prolific offensive production. There is no concern with this scheme – it’s more than proven to confound defences. Jordan Love, one of the hottest QB’s in the back-half of last year, has a full year of playing experience under his belt after going through his growing pains at the start of last season. The WR room has 4 bonafide NFL players with a young-gun TE combo (Kraft and Musgrave). GB replaced Aaron Jones with a more effective back (imo) in Josh Jacobs, an RB who has missed very limited time in comparison to Jones. Lastly, you have an OLine that is similar to last year with a small change (the 6th OLineman from last year replaces Runyan at Guard) and a PFF rank of 14th going into 2024. Things should be solid in the trenches, and if the Packers offence continues to roll as it did at the end of last year (26 ppg through the last 12 games in 2023, good for 7th in the NFL), they will shoot the lights out in Brazil.
Lastly – the Eagles defence. As I touched on at the beginning of the article, Philly has overhauled their defensive coaching staff and made the splash hire of Vic Fangio. Vic is a renowned defensive play-caller with multiple successful years in Chicago. However, Vic struggled to succeed defensively last year with a pretty elite unit (skill-wise) that included the likes of Bradley Chubb, Jaelon Phillips, Jalen Ramsey, and Christian Wilkins. Injuries hit the defence to an extent (Chubb, Phillips, and Ramsey all missed some time), but that’s not to say Fangio doesn’t share any blame for a defence that allowed the 10th most ppg in the NFL last year (23.2 ppg allowed).
It’s become apparent (in my eyes) that Fangio isn’t adapting as much as he should to the current NFL style after recent unsuccessful stops in Denver and Miami. Further – the personnel has to be solid in order for Fangio to be successful (those good defences in Chicago were full of skill). While I expect Philly’s defence to get better as the season goes on, there should be some growing pains early with the roster turnover that occurred that past offseason.
The longest tenured and most effective member of this defence has departed – no more Fletcher Cox stuffing the middle with that thicc frame. However, with Jalen Carter entering his sophomore campaign, and Jordan Davis acting as the human cinder-block at DT, there shouldn’t be too much fall off there. Further, the swap of Bryce Huff for Haason Redick is decent and should still provide for a good pass rush. That being said – the LB core and the DBs leave a lot to be desired.
The Eagles clearly struggled with the pass last year, allowing the 3rd most pass yards in the league (255.7 pass yards allowed per game). Their attempt to address this was: (a) adding Devin White as the starting ILB as a decent coverage LB (he is now ruled Out for this Week 1 game), and (b) adding Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper Dejean in Rounds 1 and 2 of the NFL Draft. These rookies were high on my board as well – but it’s very rare for a Rookie DB to come out of the gates looking like a world-beater. My question is: with Fangio’s Miami defence allowing the 10th most passing yards per game and the 10th most points per game on the back of a similarly-skilled unit (possibly a better unit than this Eagles defence), how is he going to stop a top 10 offence in GB from putting up over 21 points? I don’t see it happening, and if Green Bay has over 21 points, it’s likely that this one’s going Over when combined with Philly’s projected offensive output.
All in all, the analysis points to two good, established offences against defences that have decent skill, but have yet to mesh and progress with new playcallers and a lack of experience. That all points Over my friends.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NFL and UFC bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers:
Pick: Over 49.5 Points Total (-110) 1.0u Bet365