It’s finally here folks! That’s right football fans, the drought has ended and now we can delegate any real-life responsibilities for the next 20+ weeks with NFL Football living in our minds rent-free. And boy oh boy, do we have one hell of a game to start the season with the reigning Super Bowl Champs ready to exploit the perennial contender Ravens with Taylor Swift’s play-calling debut. All jokes aside, I anticipate that this will be a coronation of last years’ Super Bowl winners taking on a Ravens squad that’s lost key personnel pieces with seemingly no clear replacements.
Trust me – it hurts me just as much as the next guy to be all over the Chiefs. The “NE Patriots – version 2.0” vibes are too strong to ignore, with KC becoming the new Death Star of the NFL. Regardless, analysis of both teams’ offseasons would lead anyone to believe that this iteration of the Chiefs is as good, if not better, than last years’. Meanwhile, the Ravens look like a shell of the team that lost out miserably in the Playoffs last year.
But we don’t just have 1 game-pick locked and loaded for the opener – we have 3. They correlate to a significant extent, leading to an “all or nothing” approach for this matchup. Regardless, we’re shooting our shot with this one based on a ton of offseason analysis, taking into account changes in coaching, personnel, and scheme. So, without further ado, let’s get to our 3 best picks for TNF.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
NFL Best Bets: Chiefs vs Ravens TNF Season Opener:
Pick: KC Chiefs -3.0 (+100) 0.5u Bet365
That’s right – no boring -150 moneyline plays to be found here. The read for this game is quite clear – the Chiefs roll on offence and remain staunch on defence. Why, you might ask? Well, let’s get into it.
There’s no doubt the Chiefs offence had its difficulties last year. The team really didn’t have an identity to start the year, where they thought they could just throw the ball all over the field to average WR’s without any semblance of a run game. Well, everyone saw how that worked out. Rashee Rice had yet to come into his own, Skyy Moore was starting in 2-WR sets, and the team still didn’t trust Pacheco as the bellcow RB. It was like a gang of misfit, B-list actors being led by prime Al Pacino. The lead star can only take a supporting cast so far.
To take it a step further – the Oline hasn’t changed any going into this year after beginning last year with minimal chemistry (as they had two new Tackles on the squad). If anything, it’s only gotten better with the drop off of dead weight at LT (Donovan Smith, LT rated with a 55.4 PFF grade last year (quite poor)) and the infusion of young energy with Kingsley Suamataia (a 2nd round pick that I was quite high on) taking his place. Another year of experience for this unit together, coupled with more athleticism at LT, makes this a Top 5 unit again this year in my eyes (PFF shares this sentiment to a slightly lesser extent, ranking them #7 going into this year).
Fast-forward to 2024. The aforementioned OLine should be firing on all cylinders. Isiah Pacheco has established himself as a solid bellcow RB, and the team showed last year that their run game can dominate a matchup, averaging over 20 carries/game in KC’s 4 playoff games (all of which they won). Rashee Rice is off the racetrack (also known as your local freeway) and is seemingly set to face ZERO consequences for his criminal activity.
He’s bound to progress after looking like a Top 20/30 WR in the last half of 2023. Kelce, with another year under his belt, will be less explosive and may lack breakaway speed. Regardless, he’ll be at his best to start the season with the lack of wear-and-tear that will come later in the schedule, and Killa_Trav has always found a way to succeed even with a drop-off in athleticism. Added to all of this is the addition of Xavier Worthy to the WR room, a guy that could very possibly challenge Tyreek Hill for “the most explosive NFL player” tag. I wouldn’t be surprised if his shoes melt off after an 80 yard bomb from Kermit. The guy is a straight burner, and only adds to the weaponry KC is slated to have going into this year.
In terms of KC’s defence – they’re the same unit that ranked Top 3 in total defence last year, sans “all-pro” CB L’Jarius Sneed. I have “all-pro” in quotation marks for a reason: the way KC develops their corners, combined with the scheme, really makes it hard for the KC DB’s to fail. The Chiefs are notorious for bringing pressure at will, leading to increased opportunities for corners to jump short routes. When an opposing QB has 300+ lb Chris Jones and 260+ lb George Karlaftis bearing down on him before he can even make his second read – it’s quite easy to cover in the secondary. The year before last, it was Charvarius Ward leading this DB room with the “all pro” label. Fast forward a year, it was Snead. This year – they already have one of the best young corners in the NFL (who’s only getting better), Trent McDuffie. Couple that with Safety Justin Reid still producing at a very high-level and tons of buzz around sophomore CB Jaylen Watson – they’re cooking with gas on the backend yet again.
With all of that considered – how could you say that this team is any worse than the 2023 Chiefs? You can’t, which has me leaning hard their way in this game. Things only become more clear when you take a look at Baltimore’s offensive and defensive units – units I will be touching on in the analysis for the next two picks.
Pick: KC Chiefs Team Over 23.5 (-135) 0.5u Bet365
Yes, KC only averaged 21.8 points per game as an offence last year, and the Chiefs only scored 17 on Baltimore when they gave ’em the boot in the Ploffs last year. However, we’re predicting (from the analysis above) that the Chiefs’ offence should be better than last year. That alone should be enough to feel good about this Team Over. Nonetheless, we have even more sugar to add to the coffee with this one – as Baltimore’s defence is not even close to the unit it was last year.
A huge reason why the Ravens won so many games handily last year was their defence. This year, Mike MacDonald, their stud newcomer of a DC last year, left town to take up the Head Coaching mantle in Seattle. With Mike as the DC last year, the Ravens ranked #1 in Points Allowed, and were top 5 in multiple other team-defence categories. Mikey Mac also took some key assistant coaches with him to Seattle – and Harbaugh was left with Zach Orr as the replacement DC. Nothing against Zach-attack, those are just big shoes to fill and a lot of pressure for an Inside Linebackers Coach.
Speaking about the Ravens defence – it wasn’t just Mike that departed. Jadaveon Clowney, very effective pass-rusher last year that racked up over 9 sacks – gone. Ronald Darby, a good supporting corner who filled in valiantly last year with an absurd 43 times targeted: 19 completions allowed – gone. Geno Stone, an absolute breakout at the safety position with 7 interceptions last year – gone. And maybe the most important, the yin to Roquan Smith’s yang, Patrick Queen, left to the Steelers – leaving a gaping hole in the middle of the Ravens defence. The Ravens have continued to say that they have guys who can step-up into these positions – and they must have adequate depth pieces with the lack of Free Agents signed to fill these needs. But to replace these four stud-level contributors with nothing but bench-fodder … that ain’t great Bob.
So, the Ravens are now projected to have: (a) a worse pass rush, (b) a worse linebacker core, and (c) a worse coverage unit. Yet the Team Over for arguably the most explosive offence in the NFL is set under 24 points? It’s time to dial it in and buy in people.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens Team Under 20.5 (+115) 0.5u Bet365
Again – it might be enough to point to the analysis above on KC’s defence for this pick (they were 2nd last year in PPG allowed at 17.0). However, that wouldn’t be taking into account what was a very successful offence for the Ravens last year (ranked 4th with 27.7 PPG). Thing is – just like the Ravens defence, the offence just isn’t the same. Let’s get into it.
Probably THE biggest reason for the Ravens success on offence last year – a RANK OLine. They were ranked as the 4th best unit by PFF going into last year, and finished Top 5 on the PFF list. This year: they are projected as the 25th ranked unit on the PFF list. That’s an enormous change for an offence that relies on above-average trench-work to open run lanes. If the OLine last year was the equivalent of a snowblower clearing the driveway after a heavy snowfall; this iteration of the OLine is more like a 85-year-old man with a broken shovel trying to clear the way. It might get done eventually, but chances aren’t great.
They got rid of starting Guard John Simpson (not great, 56.5 PFF grade), but the key losses are Guard Kevin Zeitler (near 70 PFF grade) and RT Morgan Moses (one of the best Right Tackles last year with a 77.6 PFF grade). I know Baltimore may have compensated for these losses by signing a Mack Truck at running back (love me some D-Hennessy), but the options they’re left with to create running lanes …. not great. There are a ton of middling options (vet Ben Cleveland is decent, and there’s second-round pick RT Rosengarten that had his detractors in the Draft, but may be okay). Regardless, the chances that the OLine doesn’t struggle, especially early when the Ravens are set to have two OLine starters with 0 career NFL snaps ….. all points to the Team Under.
Really though – how are you going to get big DHen going if he’s constantly being stuffed in the backfield? The guy can only break so many tackles. Meanwhile, Lamar will be constantly scrambling against this intense Chiefs pass-rush, and the ground game can’t get established with the aforementioned OLine difficulties combined with KC putting up points. The Ravens are not a team built to play from behind, so even in the off-chance Baltimore wins, it likely won’t be a high scoring game. Pair this pick with the other two and you’ll be riding strong into the first night of the NFL season.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NFL and UFC bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
NFL Best Bets: Chiefs vs Ravens TNF Season Opener:
Pick: KC Chiefs -3.0 (+100) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: KC Chiefs Team Over 23.5 (-135) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Baltimore Ravens Team Under 20.5 (+115) 0.5u Bet365