13th Edition: NFC Super Stack
Two articles in one day!?! I told you we were going to kick this article series into overdrive! Only 2 days left until Thursday Night Kickoff and 5 days left until the first NFL Sunday, and with the double-up today, we’ll have 2 more free articles (after this one) coming with 4 Futures bets locked and loaded prior to the season starting. If you haven’t taken a look at the previous articles in the series (they’re below), the premise is that each week to this point (since June 18), we’ve scoured the NFL Season-Long Futures lines for value picks before the season starts.
We had the first edition, Rookie QB’s, the second edition, New Offensive Coordinator Magic, the third edition, Overvalued Pass-Catchers, the fourth edition, Changes in the Trenches, the fifth edition, Don’t Run Forest, the sixth edition, I’m Getting Old, the seventh edition, Do My Eyes Deceive Me, the eight edition, I Don’t Buy Hype Mothafucka I Sell It, the ninth edition, The Books Have Swung Back, the tenth edition, 1,000 Yard Receivers, the eleventh edition, 1,000 Yard Rushers, and the twelfth edition, AFC Super Stack. As I said in the original article: make sure to manage your bankroll. Each bet for me is a half unit ($50), and we will end up with 30 total bets before the season starts ($1500 total) – so a lot will be invested prior to the season. Regardless, you can decide your unit-size, and this should give you some extra juice throughout the season, keeping the interest up all the way to the final whistle.
In this, the 13th Edition of the series, we’re looking at another little combo play, this time with an NFC team that has “proven production” on its side, but the downside of age and durability concerns. Full disclosure: I’ve been a huge Rams fan since 2000, and I’m going to be stroking them off nonstop throughout this article. Regardless of my bias – these yardage total lines are there for the taking, with a clear path to the Over should the Football Gods provide these two studs with injury-free (or at least injury-limited) seasons. So, without further ado, let’s get to these middle-aged, future HOF picks (maybe a little hyperbole there).
Previous Articles in Series
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Season-Long Passing Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Matthew Stafford Over 3,875.5 Passing Yards (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Our saviour. Matthew Fucking Stafford ladies and gentleman. This is MY GUY. He came from the lowly Lions after years of toiling in the dead zone to lead the Rams to their first Super Bowl since the early 2000’s. I will always have the utmost respect and admiration for this guys’ game. Anyone who knows ball knows – Stafford is a top 5 QB in the League when healthy. However, the “when healthy” tag can be a bit of a concern. Nonetheless, I figure that Stafford can get this done in 14-15 games, taking into account him missing a few outings. Let me explain why.
Here’s a good question for the audience. Out of the 11 times Stafford has played 15 games or more in a season, how many times has he ended up Over this yardage total line? The answer: 10 times, where the only time he missed, he was just Under this line back in 2018 when he was still on a putrid Lions team. Each of the other 10 seasons, Stafford’s gone Over this total. Even last year, with 2 missed games and nagging injuries for a portion of the season, Stafford ended up at almost 4,000 passing yards. And that was without his 1A/1B option, Cooper Kupp, for half of the season.
This season, we have: (a) Stafford at ideal health (recovered from a hamstring tweak 12 days ago and no new health concerns), (b) a healthy Cooper Kupp to go along with Puka Nacua ready to roll for week 1, (c) a defence that’s projected to be worse with the loss of Aaron Donald (leading to more passing volume to keep up), and (d) a better interior OLine with FA addition Jonah Jackson from Detroit and Dotson re-signing at the other Guard spot. Yet they expect Stafford to have his worst statistical year (when he’s stayed somewhat healthy)? I don’t get it, especially when Stafford’s arm wasn’t looking any worse-for-wear last season.
What would it take for this pick to miss? Well, I could envision three reasons why this one doesn’t hit: (a) both Kupp and Nacua go out for the year with injury (quite unlikely), (b) Stafford misses 4 or more games (he’s only done this in 3 out of 14 seasons following his rookie year), or (c) the OLine looks significantly worse than last year (very unlikely considering the unit had less depth last year and dealt with a multitude of injuries). You can see that not one of these three possible outcomes have much of a chance at happening – yet they would likely all have to happen (or at least two of them) for Stafford to fall under this line. That’s a shot I’m willing to take with one of the greatest QB’s of our generation combined with a Top 3 offensive mind in the game (Sean McVay) making the play calls. I might be a homer – but anyone can see the value here.
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Cooper Kupp Over 925.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 0.5u Bet365
Wow – how the mighty have (seemingly) fallen. It’s hilarious to me that we go back to 2021, and Kupp was one of the most valuable players in the League. He had almost 2,000 yards receiving and won OPOY in his first year with Stafford at the helm. Then, the guy deals with some tough injuries in both 2022 and 2023, wear-and-tear that carried over from pre-season injuries, and he’s left for dead. Not even expected to crack 1,000 yards receiving.
Two reasons the books have it this low: injury concerns and Puka Nacua. Well, let’s go through each one to see where we stand going into this year.
Injury concerns: As I touched on, in the last 2 years, Kupp was dealing with injuries going into the regular season, and he was eating rock-solid hits on so many plays due to the fact that he was always the primary-read in the offence. This year – Kupp comes in with a clean bill of health, and he won’t always be taking nasty-ass hits due to the two-pronged approach the Rams can employ with Nacua flanking Kupp. So many people hate Kupp this year because of injury risk, but the guy played in 15 games or more for 3 straight years prior to 2022, so one can’t necessarily say he’s “injury prone”. Keenan Allen had the “injury prone” label tagged on him at one point too (2 ACL tears in 2 years) – and he then went on to play in 14 games or more in 5 straight seasons after those knee injuries. Kupp’s age (31 this year) would be more of a concern if he didn’t start his career at the ripe age of 24 – meaning he still has tread on the tires, and isn’t as likely to break down as the guys who came into the league at 21 years of age.
Puka: Yes, Nacua is an unbelievable WR that was tailor-made for this offence. And yes, expect less targets for Kupp than he had in his breakout year (2021). I’ve heard many analysts say, “Kupp will always be the second option in the offence now, limiting his upside.” Nice armchair analysis, Adam Rank. Putting aside those lazy takes for one second, let’s take a look at how receiving production shook out when Kupp and Nacua were both on the field:
- They played 12 games together;
- Nacua posted 62 receptions on 102 targets for 944 yards and 4 touchdowns;
- That averages out to 5.2 receptions, 78.7 yards, and 0.3 TDs per game;
- Kupp averaged 4.9 receptions, 61.4 yards, and 0.4 TDs per game.
As you can see here – while Kupp may not be the #1 target in the offence anymore, it’s definitely more of a 1A/1B situation as opposed to a clear cut WR1 and WR2, especially considering that Kupp might not have been at his best (health-wise) last year after starting the season in Week 5. If you just take his production (on average) from last year, you still end up with 922.5 receiving yards over 15 games played. Call me crazy, but I expect Kupp to be better this year with a healthy offseason and the possibility of a slow start from Nacua due to his nagging knee injury from this preseason.
For everyone saying “Kupp is falling off a cliff due to age, there’s no way he can produce like he did in 2021” – you’re right. Regardless, this is still one of the best WR’s in the game (skill for skill) that can rely on clean route running and offensive scheming to get open. Kupp was never a “pure athleticism and speed” guy, so I’m thinking age won’t be as big of a concern this year. Let’s just pray for Kupp’s health, and we’ll have a winner.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NFL and UFC bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Season-Long Passing Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Matthew Stafford Over 3,875.5 Passing Yards (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Season-Long Receiving Yards – Player Props (Futures)
Pick: Cooper Kupp Over 925.5 Receiving Yards (-115) 0.5u Bet365