11th Edition: 1,000 Yard Rushers
ONE MORE WEEK. The beginning of the NFL season has crept up on us; and I couldn’t be any happier about that. With only 9 days until Thursday Night Kickoff to start the season, the articles in this series will be coming hot and heavy, as we’ll have 5 more free articles coming with 10 Futures bets locked and loaded prior to the season starting. If you haven’t taken a look at the previous articles in the series (they’re below), the premise is that each week to this point (since June 18), we’ve scoured the NFL Season-Long Futures lines for value picks before the season starts.
We had the first edition, Rookie QB’s, the second edition, New Offensive Coordinator Magic, the third edition, Overvalued Pass-Catchers, the fourth edition, Changes in the Trenches, the fifth edition, Don’t Run Forest, the sixth edition, I’m Getting Old, the seventh edition, Do My Eyes Deceive Me, the eight edition, I Don’t Buy Hype Mothafucka I Sell It, the ninth edition, The Books Have Swung Back, and the tenth decision, 1,000 Yard Receivers. As I said in the original article: make sure to manage your bankroll. Each bet for me is a half unit ($50), and we will end up with 30 total bets before the season starts ($1500 total) – so a lot will be invested prior to the season. Regardless, you can decide your unit-size, and this should give you some extra juice throughout the season, keeping the interest up all the way to the final whistle.
In this, the 11th Edition, we’re going back to the ground game with some very exciting RB’s on the docket. With the 10th edition focusing on 1,000 yard WR’s, we’re flipping the script this edition with 1,000 yard RB’s. Usually, I’m not big on taking Overs on RB props due to their increased injury risk – but the plus money lines in this market for two particular studs are just too tempting. The fact that both these guys are very young to this point in their careers gives me more confidence in a 14+ games-played season – and that’s all they’ll need to cinch up 1,000 yards on the ground. Both of these guys were the clear bellcow backs last year in good offences – and they both had heavy volume from week 11 to the end of the regular season once establishing themselves as “The Guy”. So without further ado, let’s get to the picks.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Previous Articles in Series:
Season-Long Rushing Yards – Over 1,000 Yards – Player Props (Futures):
Pick: James Cook Over 1,000 Rushing Yards (+120) 0.5u Bet365
We’re starting with James Dalvin Cook (yup, his parents decided to use his brother’s first name as his middle name in an all-time wackjob move). This is one I never expected to get at plus money – as everything lines up for things to be even more prolific for this great running back. Let’s go through each of the factors that will impact James here – starting with the offensive play-calling and the OC.
You all remember last year when Ken Dorsey was relieved of his OC duties with the Bills in the middle of the year (week 11), resulting in a big drop off in production for Stefon Diggs? The Bills made the change to Joe Brady, who subsequently implemented an offence that focused more on controlling the ball and winning with efficiency. Well, Joe Brady is back this year, and you might not remember who the biggest beneficiary of the OC change last year was. You guessed it – it was Jimmy Cook. The guy took off like an Elon rocket ship once the offensive play-calling changed (not that he wasn’t doing well before the change, mind you).
Before the OC swap, Cook was averaging 12 rushes per game with 61.5 rush yards per game. Following the swap: 16.7 rushes per game with 72.5 rush yards per game. Remember – that was with Stefon Diggs still on the field. So, in reality, we should be expecting about 17-19 rushes a game with a 75-80 yard average this upcoming season (projecting based on the departures of Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs). If you extrapolate those averages season-long, James Cook would only have to play 13 games this year to get over 1,000 yards rushing. That’s pretty simple math for an Over in my books.
But we can’t forget a few things here. It’s possible that there are more stacked boxes for Cook to deal with due to the lack of explosive playmakers at WR. The flawed part about that perspective is – Josh Allen is still quite the playmaker himself, and the Bills really leaned on Kincaid and Shakir while syphoning targets away from Diggs and Davis for the majority of that post-week-11 time period. That being considered, along with the addition of slot speedster Curtis Samuel to the WR room, is enough to persuade me that defences will still have to be wary of the pass to the point where I don’t expect an 8-man front focus every week.
The other possibility – the Bill’s defence is worse than last year, leading to worse gamescripts and therefore, less rushes for our guy. After all, Buffalo is coming off a season where they finished 9th in yards allowed per game (307.2) and 4th in points allowed per game (18.3). This was actually Buffalo’s 3rd consecutive finish among the league’s top 10 leaders in total defence. Many will point to offseason personnel losses as a direct indication that this defence will be worse. However, their losses this offseason, while significant on paper, really might not be that difficult to replace. Sure, they lost ex-pro bowlers such as Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, and Tre’Davious White – but none of these guys are on the front-nine of their careers (along with the fact that White and Hyde both dealt with injury last year), and the defensive speed should really only increase with additions such as Cole Bishop at safety (2nd round pick in 2024 Draft and a consensus top 3 safety in the Draft) and Rasul Douglas (who they grabbed at last year’s trade deadline). The loss of Matt Milano at LB is big, but they were without Milano since week 5 of last year, so that shouldn’t be a dealbreaker. Couple that with a renewed Von Miller at Edge for one more kick at the can – and I think we’re dealing with a Top 10 unit again in this iteration of the Bills defence.
The last piece to this rushing yards pie – the Bills OLine. Well, they are still solid as fuck. PFF has them ranked as the 8th best OLine going into this year, with limited roster turnover and standouts such as Spencer Brown and Dion Dawkins (both top 32 out of 81 Tackles graded by PFF last year) at the bookends. They are dealing with the loss of Mitch Morse at Center, but McGovern (who played Guard for the Bills last year) has played Center before and David Edwards is getting into the starting lineup at Guard (he was their sixth OLineman last year, and put up an absurdly good PFF grade of 90.2 on his snaps).
With all of that considered, it seems as though Cook is primed to top last year’s rushing production. Well, what did he rush for last year? Just a casual 1,122 yards rushing in 13 games started. This one seems like a lock with the context considered.
Pick: Isaiah Pacheco Over 1,000 Rushing Yards (+130) 0.5u Bet365
The scary parts about Pacheco – (i) he’s a Round 7 RB that would be easy to move on from and (ii) he hasn’t been over 1,000 yards rushing to this point in his career. The reason we’re ignoring that: he’s become entrenched as a good starting RB in the NFL with his play to finish last year, and after the Chiefs bye last year, Pacheco was on pace for almost 1,400 yards rushing in a 17-game season. It was only a 5 game sample size (as he missed some games late last year with injury), but those 5 games (after the bye) mirror the same situation to this season. Let me explain.
Prior to the bye last year, Pacheco was in a pure timeshare where he was averaging 55% of snaps. Jerrick McKinnon was out there a lot, a CEH cut into his production a bit as well. After the bye? His snap share jumped to right around 70%. He was averaging 13.8 rush attempts per game and 58.3 rush yards per game prior to the bye. After the bye? 16.2 rush attempts per game and 82 rush yards per game. Those are stark differences in production when you put them side by side. Now, with McKinnon leaving this year, the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl on the back of a great run game, and only UDFA’s and the ghost of CEH to compete with Pacheco for touches ….. I’m gonna guess they stick with what worked and give the same kind of volume to Pacheco this year. I assume Steve Harvey would have my back with a “good answer” on that guess.
What else do you really have to be concerned about? The KC defence is still very stellar, with Chris Jones retained and the only real difference being La’Jarius Snead being shipped off. Not to worry too much though – Snead took a lot of penalties (2nd on the team last year with 11) and KC has been great at replacing CB’s over the years (think of moving from Charvarius Ward last year). They also have great young talent to go along with standout slot CB McDuffie. Almost all the experts have them as a Top 10 unit this year after finishing Top 3 in total defence last year.
The OLine? Still projected to be a Top 10 unit according to PFF (ranked 7th) with the addition of a great pass-blocking Guard in Thuney. That stellar FA signing goes along with the long term re-signing of the best Center in the NFL in Creed Humphrey, and the continuation of Trey Smith in the interior (the 10th highest PFF rated Guard last year in the League). While the Tackle spots are a little iffy, these interior guys will be able to create big holes down the middle of the field – something specifically helpful for the powerful and large-in-stature Pacheco.
Pacheco has finally earned that bellcow role – and he seems to be one of those guys (like Derrick Henry) who can wear down a defence over the game with his physicality. With added rushing volume on the docket, I expect him to easily clear 1,000 yards rushing if he can get through 13-14 games this season.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NFL and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
Season-Long Rushing Yards – Over 1,000 Yards – Player Props (Futures):
Pick: James Cook Over 1,000 Rushing Yards (+120) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Isaiah Pacheco Over 1,000 Rushing Yards (+130) 0.5u Bet365