The PGA Tour FedEx Cup Playoffs roll on this week after a very exciting opening event at the St. Jude Championship last week. We’re now on to the 2nd event of the PGA Playoffs, the BMW Championship, where they have cut the field down to the Top 50 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings. For those who don’t know, PGA players earn FedEx Cup points throughout the season based on their finishes (the higher the finish, the more points the golfer receives). Last week, we had the Top 70 in the field; this week, it’s the Top 50 in the field; and next week, at the Tour Championship, it’s the Top 30 in the field.
This last week was another smokejob by Plus Money, cashing the Hideki Matsuyama Outright Winner Each-Way at 20/1 for a huge day (over $500 profit if you are a $100 unit bettor). There were definitely some scary moments with that Outright bet, but the Matsuyama train kept rolling down the tracks to secure the dub (with his caddie and coach missing the Tournament nonetheless). Here’s the recap if you want to take a look:
We’re looking to keep this heater going after also cashing an Outright Winner with Scottie Too Hotty at the Olympics (good for $420 profit 2 weeks ago). The results speak for themselves – all bets are tracked throughout the year, and we have a built up bankroll of almost $800 profit through this PGA season to play around with for the last two events.
Without further ado, let’s get to the course setup for this week to see what we’ll be targeting.
The Course: Castle Pines Golf Club (Colorado)
Wow, what a treat we get this week with the Castle Pines Golf Club hosting this great tournament. The trick about this course – we haven’t seen it on the Tour schedule for a very long time (2006). In fact, there are only two players that have played this course previously on the PGA Tour: Adam Scott and Jason Day. Those guys have been around a while; so we really don’t have a great idea of how this place will play this weekend.
Castle Pines looks like a real doozy on paper: the longest course ever played on Tour at over 8,100 yards with a Par of 72. In reality, the length of this course is not all that different from the Tour average of 7,200 to 7,400 yards. The reason for this reduction in “playing yardage” as opposed to “listed yardage” is the elevation change that goes along with playing golf in the Rocky Mountains – where this course boasts a ridiculous 6,300 feet above sea level change. That means each and every guy is going to gain distance off-the-tee – so when it comes to the driving stats for the top guys, distance doesn’t matter as much as one might think. On top of that, the fairways are wider than Tour average, so those with mediocre driving accuracy should still survive. However, the rough is about the same as it was at the St. Jude based on reports, so there’s still quite the premium on being in the fairway (as distance control from the rough will be tough with the added difficulty of dialing in approach distances due to the elevation changes on each hole). Therefore, we are again favouring driving accuracy over driving distance, but overall strokes-gained off-the-tee will be paramount in my eyes.
I see approach play being the main separator at this Tourney – as it is in most. However, the approach shots look much further on this course where 175+ yard approach shots comprise 78% of approach shots a player will hit throughout the round. That is a TON of long irons, especially if a guy is short off-the-tee (however, we do have to take some yardage off this 175+ average due to enhanced distance on this course). Here’s how I’m going to play it: those golfers with good driving distance will get more of a break on the 200+ yard approach shots, as their approach shots should be more in the 150-200 yard range with the elevation considered. For those golfers with less distance, I’ll be looking more at the 200+ figure, as they’ll need to make up distance with great approach play from the fairways. Regardless, approach play is key – especially considering the fact that the greens will be receptive based on the rain in the forecast for Thursday and Friday.
I’m favouring around-the-green play over putting at this setup, as the greens are below Tour average in circumference, making missed greens-in-regulation a more common occurrence. I think the putting will be quite different from the St. Jude Championship, where every putt had minimal break with average pace. Here, at a Nicklaus-designed course, we have multiple levels to the greens, with much more pace and undulation to deal with. Therefore, good around-the-green play is the key, but we’ll also be looking at other Nicklaus setups/similar green complexes when it comes to putting: specifically (a) Muirfield Village, (b) Valhalla, and (c) Augusta National. These three courses are also quite similar to the course setup this week overall, so there may be some carryover with those results.
Another comp course to this setup that many have identified is Bay Hill, where you need a great driver and good long iron play to contend. So, to sum it all up, we’re looking for: (a) a great overall driver of the golf ball, (b) those with good approach play from 150+ for long hitters, and 200+ for short hitters, (c) a good scrambler with decent putting on Nicklaus-like putting surfaces, and (d) results from the four comp courses mentioned above.
With all of that considered – let’s get to the picks we have this week.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from DataGolf.com
2024 BMW Championship Best Bets
Pick: Xander Schauffele Outright (Bet365 Boost) (+700) 0.5u
For those asking – yes, I’m good with Xander at his regular price of +650. But I’ll take the boost if I can – and Xander is my most confident pick this weekend with everything considered.
It’s hard to make a bad case for Xander. In terms of recent form, the guy is just insane. Top 20’s in 17 of 20 events this year; with 14 of those finishes in the Top 10, and 6 Top 5’s. Oh, and his 2 Outright wins at the PGA Championship and The Open. It’s been a fucking great year for this guy, and he deserves it after his struggles to close tournaments prior to this year.
In terms of driving the golf ball, he’s one of the best in the game at this time. Many assume that because of Xander’s small stature, he’s not bombing it off-the-tee. That’s just straight wrong. He’s gained driving distance on the field in every event he’s played this last year, putting up some absurd numbers along the way and ranking T36 in driving distance on Tour this year (right next to Tony Finau). His driving accuracy: almost just as good, where he’s gained accuracy off-the-tee vs the field in 4 of his last 5 showings. The true telling stat: 11th on Tour in strokes gained off-the-tee (considering distance and accuracy). He’s a great driver of the golf ball in an overall sense.
We don’t even have to talk about his approach play. He was sticking the flag at will at the St. Jude last week, gaining +1.56 strokes on approach per/round. Overall on the season (since January 1, 2024) – he’s 92nd percentile on Tour with approach shots 150-200 yards, and 98th percentile with approach shots 200+ yards. That’s perfect for this golf course – as wedge-play won’t be as big of a concern (where Xander actually struggles a bit, only reaching the 55th percentile on 100-150 yard approach shots).
The weakest part of his game is probably around-the-green play – but he’s still quite good when it comes to scrambling. He’s 30th on Tour when it comes to strokes-gained around-the-green, and he’s had 3 straight events with positive strokes-gained around-the-green, including an absurd +1.04 SGARG per/round the Olympics.
His putting has been lights out. 15 straight events with strokes-gained putting vs the field. On top of that, he putted very well at Muirfield (+2.17 SGP per/round, leading the Tournament), Valhalla (+1.25 SGP per/round), and Augusta (+0.45 SGP per/round) – and that was all in 2024. He also had Top 10’s in all three of those Tournaments, with the win at Valhalla standing out.
Overall – this one makes the most sense to me, especially with Scottie’s recent putting struggles on courses (like TPC Southwind at the St. Jude) where even bad putters should succeed. Rock on Xander.
Pick: Wyndham Clark Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 10 Places (+1800) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
*If you are unfamiliar with Each-Way bets, all it really means is that we are placing two bets in one – one bet on Clark to win, and one on him to get in the top 10. If he wins outright, we get the full +1800 dollar payout, but if he only gets in the top 10, we are looking at a reduction of ⅕ to the odds. So $100 E/W ($200 total) on Clark at this line pays $2,360 if he wins (cashing the placement bet and the outright bet), and $460 if he only comes in the top 10. Dead-heat rules also apply – check your gambling site for the rules on that.
Wyndham has just been too hot to ignore lately. While he is a guy who can blow up your card with a real stinker of a performance – he has a lot of things going for him this week, not the least of which includes the fact that he could have won the Olympics had he not shot a 75 in the 1st round.
We see it time and time again with the PGA FedEx Cup Playoffs – guys that get hot at this time can win in bunches. It was Hovland winning 2 of the 3 Playoff Tourneys last year; Rory won 2/3 Playoff events in both 2016 and 2012; DJ did the same in 2020. And would you look at that – who is the hottest player entering this weekend but Wyndham Clark.
Taking out the result from The Open (due to extreme weather and conditions), Wyndham has a T-7th, a T-14th, a T-10th, and a T-9th in his last 5 events. These results weren’t at low-pressure, weak-field events either. The results included the Travelers, the Genesis Scottish Open, the Olympics, and the FedEx St. Jude. Form is absolutely stellar coming into this week.
Another point to make: Wyndham is actually from Colorado, so one would assume he has the advantage when it comes to playing at a setup with such drastic elevation changes – as he likely had to deal with this a lot as he developed his game prior to becoming a pro.
Wyndham has always been a masher off-the-tee, gaining driving distance on the field in every event this year other than The Open. His accuracy is not very good at all – but the fact that these fairways are wider gives me some comfort, and Clark has gained driving accuracy on the field in his last 2 Tournaments (which included two courses with narrow fairways). He’s dialing it in, and with a Top 20 rating in strokes-gained off-the-tee this year on Tour, we shouldn’t have to worry about this part of his game.
Approach play? Surprisingly quite good for Wyndham. He’s gained strokes-on-approach on the field in 5 of his last 6 events, and he gained over +1 strokes per/round on approach at the Travelers. Not only that, but with the insane distance Wyndham gains off-the-tee, some approach shots will fall into the 100-150 yard range, where he’s 92nd percentile in proximity to the hole from that distance. While he’s not a worldbeater when it comes to strokes-gained on 150-200 yard approach shots (59th percentile), he does do a good job of limiting trouble from that range (he’s 92nd percentile from that distance in poor shot avoidance). That’s important, as the rough around the greens at this course can lead to troubling bogey possibilities if the scrambling is average.
Wyndham’s around-the-green play is quite average, but recently he’s been gaining strokes in this area of the game. Again, throwing out his stats from The Open, he’s gained strokes on the field around-the-green in 5 of 6 events, and he was right around average in the other event. I’m not too worried about his scrambling when you couple it with his poor shot avoidance on approach.
The main difference in Wyndham’s game from 4 months ago as compared to his play over the last 1 ½ months – his putting. He has murdered the greens in his last 5 showings, averaging right around +1 SGP per/round. That’s unreal statistics for a guy that really struggled with his putting not too long ago. Further, he putted well at Valhalla (+0.76 SGP per/round) this year, and he putted well at Muirfield in 2023 (+1.01 SGP per/round) when his putting was on form (as it is now).
Overall, this play just makes too much sense with the way Clark has been shooting the lights out. Let’s play him here and hope he can crack the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Pick: Billy Horschel Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 10 Places (+2200) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
Coming into this week, I didn’t think I’d be touching Horschel. But the stats don’t lie – he’s on fire, and he has a very good game for this course setup.
Billy isn’t long off-the-tee, but he isn’t short either. He’s gained driving distance on the field in 4 of his last 10, and he’s lost driving distance in the other 6 showings. However, he hasn’t lost more than 6.1 yards to the field off-the-tee – so the reality is that he’s an average-distance driver. When it comes to driving accuracy, Horschel’s stats are similar to his distance. He’s gained driving accuracy on the field in 5 of his last 10 events, but he’s never lost more than 9% fairway accuracy to the field in the 5 other showings. For a guy that has always been average off-the-tee, 5 of his last 7 showings ending up with positive strokes-gained off-the-tee is impressive.
The real change in Horschel’s game has come in his approach play. After coming off two events (US Open and the Travelers) with strokes lost to the field on approach, he’s gone: +0.68 SGA per/round at the Genesis, +1.39 SGA per/round at The Open, +1.01 SGA per/round at the Wyndham, and +1.03 SGA per/round at the St. Jude. That’s unreal approach play, and if you look at his ranking with 200+ yard approach shots since January 1, 2024, he’s 75th percentile in strokes-gained and 96th percentile in good shot percentage. Due to the fact that he’s not a bombing off-the-tee, this 200+ yard figure is encouraging, as I’m guessing that at least half of his approach shots will come from this distance.
Around-the-green play is a strength of Horschel. He’s gained strokes around-the-green vs the field in 8 of his last 10 showings, and he was right around average in the other 2 events. He’s ranked right beside Sam Burns in SGARG on the year – another guy with a good short game.
The cincher for this pick: Billy boy’s putting. He’s been lights out his last 3 events (The Open, Wyndham, and St. Jude) where he’s almost gained +1 strokes per/round on the putting surface. You know what’s even better about his putting vs the average player? He’s putted lights out at Muirfield (+1.34 SGP per/round) and Valhalla (+1.71 SGP per/round) in 2024, and he did pretty well at Augusta in 2023 (+0.76 SGP per/round).
Coming off 3 Top 10’s in his last 3 Tournaments, Billy is the play here. Ride him until the wheels fall off.
Pick: Collin Morikawa Top 5 (includes ties) (+220) 0.5u Bet365
I like Collin as a bounce-back this week after an average showing at the St. Jude, but his Outright number is too much with his propensity to flame out at the end of Tournaments lately (he hasn’t won a Tournament this year for reference). That’s why I’m going to the Top 5 market here, and with such a juicy plus-money line, I believe we’re getting great value considering that Collin has 4 Top 5’s in his last 10 events.
Collin is a weird one. Everyone and their mother had him last week because his game seemed to line up so good for TPC Southwind: accuracy off-the-tee, 150+ approach shots, and good around-the-green play (due to the small greens). What did Collin do? Well, he has his worst driving accuracy performance of the season (losing driving accuracy to the field for the first time since February) and his approach play looked really off (-0.49 SGA per/round). So what the hell happened?
I’m chalking this up to two things: (1) everyone has a bad week, and (2) that kind of course actually might not suit Morikawa’s game as well as you’d think. The classic “placement off-the-tee” courses that he should succeed at, he doesn’t. This includes TPC Southwind last week, but also at Le Golf National in the Olympics (where he finished T-24th).
Meanwhile, on the courses where you think driving accuracy isn’t as important, but where overall off-the-tee numbers are important (as is the case here in Colorado), Collin does really well. This includes a solo 2nd at Muirfield this year, along with a Top 5 at Valhalla (both comp courses to this course). Well, why is that the case?
In my mind, I can’t really put my finger on it. Collin is deadly with his approach play from 150-200 yards in 2024 (89th percentile on tour in strokes-gained from this distance), but his 200+ yard approach shots leave something to be desired (32nd percentile on tour). But, this doesn’t exactly tell the whole story, as Collin improved his approach play mid-way through this year after switching back to his old swing coach. How did this show through? Prior to May of this year, Collin only gained strokes on approach in 5 of 9 events. Since May? He’s gained in 9 of 10 events, only losing strokes on approach last week. Further, if we go back to the last 2 years of approach play, Collin ranks in the 82nd percentile with approach shots 200+ yards. I have confidence that his ball-striking will show through this weekend.
The biggest improvements in Collin’s game for 2024 were: (a) around-the-green play and (b) putting. Going back to March, he’s gained strokes around-the-green vs the field in 11 of 14 events. For his putting, he’s gained strokes vs the field in 10 of his last 12 events. Both aspects are dialled in.
Lastly, as stated above, Collin has done well at the comp course (Top 5’s at Muirfield, Valhalla, and Augusta in 2024) He’s also putted very well at these venues, gaining +1.09 SGP per/round at Muirfield and +0.89 SGP per/round at Augusta. Expect Collin to contend here, but I wouldn’t hold my breath for a win.
Pick: Tony Finau + Aaron Rai Top 20’s (includes ties) Parlay (+162) 0.5u Bet365
We’re going to finish things off with a nice Top 20 parlay for two guys that I really believe in. Let’s go through Tony’s game first.
Tony has been known in the past as a bomber off-the-tee – but his off-the-tee game has been a bit of a struggle lately. Even if we take out his horrific showing at The Open, he’s still lost strokes OTT in 2 of his last 5 showings. Nonetheless, that may be overstating things, as the strokes lost numbers weren’t very high, and he drove the ball really well at Augusta (+1.54 SG OTT per/round) which is the most obvious comp off-the-tee to this course setup (due to the wide fairways and the elevation changes on tee shots).
When you talk about Finau, you can’t get too far without talking about his approach play. He’s gained strokes on approach in 10 straight events. It doesn’t matter what distance you’re talking about, whether it be 150-200 yard approach shots (90th percentile in strokes-gained) or 200+ yard approach shots (97th percentile in strokes-gained). I expect him to spike greens in this event, especially with the soft conditions on deck for Thursday and Friday.
The craziest thing about Tony is the resurgence in his short game. Everyone used to think that this was the part of his game that failed him in Tournaments. Now: he’s gained strokes putting in 6 straight events and has gained strokes around-the-green in 7 of his last 9 events. Not only that, but Tony also putted very well at Muirfield (+0.60 SGP per/round) this year, and he was average at Valhalla (-0.08 SGP per/round). What happened at those two comp courses in terms of results? Both Top 20’s.
In fact, if you throw out The Open result, Tony has 7 Top 20’s in a row. With that kind of form, I don’t know how you pass up his Top 20 here.
Moving on to Rai – I don’t have to say much, as I had him Top 20 last week at the St. Jude and he cashed again. The guy just churns out results: if you throw out The Open result for him as well, he’s also coming in with 7 straight Top 20’s.
He’s gained strokes off-the-tee in 10 out of his last 11 events. He’s also gained strokes-on-approach in 10 of his last 11 events, and with his low driving distance (vs. Tour average), it’s encouraging to see that he’s 86th percentile on Tour from 200+ yards and 86th percentile on 150-200 yard approach shots. Perfect ball striker for this setup.
The around-the-green play is good as well, where Rai gained strokes around-the-green in 7 of his last 10 events – and he was just around average in the other 3 showings. The only difficulty may come with Rai’s putting.
After gaining strokes putting in 5 of 6 events, he lost almost 1 stroke per/round on the greens at the St. Jude. But again – the greens here are not like those at the St. Jude. While Rai hasn’t exactly putted well on the comp course greens, he was only slightly below average at Valhalla (-0.34 SGP per/round) and he had an amazing showing on the greens at Muirfield in 2022 (+2.09 SGP per/round).
While Rai has limited experience on the comp courses (hasn’t played Augusta, only played Valhalla once, and only played Muirfield/Bay Hill twice), his recent form is just too good to bet against. Pair him with Tony to get some good juice on this one.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with UFC and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
2024 BMW Championship Best Bets
Pick: Xander Schauffele Outright (Bet365 Boost) (+700) 0.5u
Pick: Wyndham Clark Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 10 Places (+1800) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
Pick: Billy Horschel Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 10 Places (+2200) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
Pick: Collin Morikawa Top 5 (includes ties) (+220) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Tony Finau + Aaron Rai Top 20’s (includes ties) Parlay (+162) 0.5u Bet365