It’s TIME. What an offering the UFC Gods (aka Dana White) have in store for us later tonight – which feels all the more wonderful after various mediocre offerings at the Apex. Nah, today we get to go to Perth, Australia for a treat of a card with some very decent betting opportunities. The board lined up well with my expectations, and we have a full main card slate with various bets on the 5 best fighters tonight. The tape-study and analysis all lines up – and I don’t plan on ending up teary-eyed at the end of the night like Izzy – so let’s stack some dubs.
Last time out at UFC Abu Dhabi – wasn’t our greatest showing. We did only end up losing $88 if you were using $100 units – so we didn’t get burnt too bad. It also helps that we built up some good bankroll prior to that rare losing night, as we’re still up $370 in the UFC since we’ve been going steady with it.
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This week, as we’ve done in previous weeks, we will be giving bullet point analysis for each pick to keep things short and sweet. Don’t mistake my brevity for a lack of research, as it took some time to get good looks at all these guys. Don’t overthink it and let’s have some fun cashing tickets.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
UFC 305 Best Bets:
Pick: Israel Adesanya Moneyline (-110) 0.5u Bet365
- I’ve seen massive confidence on both sides of this fight – so it makes sense that the line is a pick ’em. I’m going with the Izzy side after the layoff – and here’s why.
- Izzy looks so much bigger after his break. I’m not saying he got into Paulo Costa’s secret juice (wink, wink), but he definitely packed on some muscle and gained some strength. This should help Izzy in the grappling department, where he’s notoriously been outgrappled by bigger guys (looking at you Jan Blachowicz).
- That has to be the path to victory for Dricus – make things ugly with a combination of straight strikes and takedowns. And sure, he could get some shots off on Izzy with his extremely unique striking style. Fact of the matter is – if Dricus can’t get Izzy fearing the takedowns, Izzy will figure out the striking and lead the way throughout the fight.
- Izzy’s striking looked very subpar against Strickland last time out. But here’s the thing. He had fought 6 times since the start of 2022 prior to the Strickland fight (crazy active, especially for a Champ), so he was likely worn down with the wear-and-tear and mental fatigue that comes along with such a busy schedule.
- Another key point: Strickland has one of the worst styles for Izzy when it comes to matchups – and we all know styles make fights. Strickland’s totally upright stance made it easy for him to handle the leg kicks of Adesanya, and although he was constantly advancing on Izzy, he acted more as the matador, taking advantage of Izzy being out of position after he tried to throw.
- DDP advances just like Strickland, but he’s not as upright (should have a tougher time with the kicks) and he is more prone to throw first as opposed to waiting as Strickland did. That’s a much better style for Izzy to match-up against – and are we even sure DDP is a top-level Champ?
- I’m extremely unconvinced. The Whittaker fight was quite impressive, and Bobby Knucks is upper class within this division. I still think that DDP was losing that fight on the cards before he cold-clocked Robert out of nowhere and put him away. The fight against Strickland last time out? Even worse, where I definitely thought Strickland had it as they were reading the decision. It’s impressive that DDP is making these fights competitive – but those are the only two high-class fights he has.
- If Izzy looks anything like the guy who: KO’d Pereira, beat Cannonier, beat Robert Whittaker, beat Marvin Vettori, and KO’d Paulo Costa – he should have no trouble with DDP here. I’m taking the chance that he’s back – even after going 0-2 at the press conferences with DDP.
Pick: Steve Erceg Moneyline + Over 1.5 Rounds (+105) 0.5u Bet365
- Astroboy is here to stay people. This guy is a young stud – and likely the best flyweight in the world considering his age and how close the fight was with Pantoja. One different decision in that 5th round …. and we’re talking about a possible rematch with Pantoja for the Championship. Now – we get Steve against one of the more middling flyweights in the Top 10.
- No disrespect to Kai – but he can only pull out wins against the lower class of the Top 15 in this division. Further – it’s only wins against chinny guys like Garbrandt and Bontorin. Other notable results are: a decision loss to Albazi (pretty average flyweight), KO’d by Moreno in the 3rd, a decision win against Askarov (not bad, but not at Erceg’s level), and a 2nd round submission loss to Royval. You can see the trend – this guy beats doormats, but gets beat up by the top class at 125.
- Erceg is the top of 125, and he’s not chinny at all. This guy is young, so he eats damage for breakfast at flyweight. On top of that, he has skills everywhere. You saw him in that Pantoja fight – he can handle himself on the ground and on the feet.
- Erceg should pick Kai apart for the majority of the fight after a slowish start due to the feeling out process. Kai isn’t known for getting finished in the 1st round (hasn’t ever been finished in Round One in 11 UFC appearances). Erceg isn’t known for getting early finishes against UFC Top-15 level fighters (not counting the chinny Matt Schnell). Let’s get this one up to plus money with the Over 1.5 added to Erceg – I have a good feeling it will pay off.
Pick: Mateusz Gamrot Moneyline + Over 1.5 Rounds (-138) 0.5u Bet365
- A little bit of chalk with the Gamer here – I just can’t believe they’re giving me this close to plus money on the most likely result.
- Gamrot is just a grapple-fucking little waterbug. And that’s no insult – it’s a perfect style for winning fights. You’re going to tell me that since 2021, this guy has fought in the UFC 8 times, and he’s 7-1. He wasn’t beating bums either. He had wins against Jalin Turner (top 15), Rafael Fiziev (top 10), and my favourite showing, a win against Tsarukyan (who I believe could challenge Islam to be the top 155er). That’s fucking nuts.
- Gamrot’s only loss in that time was to Beneil Dariush – and can we really blame him for that one? Beneil had just hit his resurgence in the division at that time and he is one of the craftiest grapplers in the UFC. Do you really think that Dan Hooker has that kind of game?
- Don’t get me wrong – some of those wins weren’t the most impressive performances. The win against Fiziev was due to an injury in the 2nd round, and the Jalin Turner fight was a split decision. Fact of the matter is – both of those guys have more skill than Dan Hooker in my eyes.
- I feel bad for hating on the Hangman like this – he’s one of my favourite fighters with a fighting spirit that just keeps going. But facts are facts – this guy is almost ready to hang ’em up. Jalin Turner SHOULD have beat him the last time out after absolutely destroying him in the 1st. Sick comeback for Dan though – I loved it. Before that, Dan disposed of a guy who will never be in the Top 15 again at 155 (Claudio Puelles), so there’s not much stock to be put into that performance.
- When Dan faces the top level of the 155 division – much like Kai Kara France at 125 – he just can’t get it done. 1st round losses to Makhachev and Arnold Allen. Prior to that, losses to Chandler and Dustin Poirier. He just doesn’t have the game to hang out with these high-level guys.
- While Dan may have a tendency of getting finished in the 1st round against upper class competition, I don’t see that here. Gamrot isn’t a big finisher (his last true finish was in 2021 against a middling Diego Ferreira – and that still went over 1.5 rounds). So I’m pairing these ones and looking for that Gamrot decision win – with a possibility of a late finish always present.
Pick: Tai Tuivasa Moneyline (+187) 0.25u Bet365
Pick: Tai/Jairzinho Over 1.5 Rounds (+155) 0.25u Bet365
- I’m willing to eat crow on this one – scared money don’t make no money. Both of these lines are plus money – but for some reason, I see myself leaning towards the underdog and an unlikely result.
- Tai has lost 4 straight – not very good, right? Well, not so fast. Not all 4 fight losing streaks are created equal. He lost to guys that are all currently within the Top 10, including Tybura, Volkov, Pavlovich and Gane. That’s a murderer’s row of opponents – and he actually ended up going Over 1.5 rounds in 2 of those 4 fights. Pretty impressive durability, even if it may not look that way on the surface.
- No one can take away the fact that Tuivasa has the death touch, just as Jairzinho does. The Derrick Lewis and Sakai fights should be evidence of that – and yet even those two fights went into the 2nd round.
- Meanwhile, Jairzinho has recent wins. But where are the high class opponents like Tai got? Well, they’re nowhere to be found, as anytime Rozenstruik jumped up to a Top 10 matchup, he lost quite handily.
- In 2021, he beat Sakai in the 1st round. He then loses to Curtis Blaydes (Top 5) in a decision. He then loses to Volkov (Top 10), beats Daukus (borderline unranked), loses to Almeida (Top 10), and beats Gaziev (right around 15th). Do you see the trend?
- To me, Tai is somewhere in between the Daukus/Gaziev level and the Volkov/Almeida level – but we’re still getting plus money in a heavyweight fight where just one punch can change everything. I’ll definitely take that.
- While Jairzinho did put up some good volume his last time out – I don’t think he felt threatened at all by Gaziev. Against a striker with the type of power Tai has, he should be a lot more on the backfoot, waiting for counters and minding his p’s and q’s. That bodes well for an Over 1.5 – so we’re going with both here baby.
Pick: Carlos Prates Moneyline + Under 2.5 Rounds (-120) 0.5u Bet365
- This one is a classic case of an insurmountable force meeting an immovable object. Prates is a deadly finisher. He has 2 finishes in under 1.5 rounds in his 2 UFC fights (against decent fighters in Trevon Giles and Charles Radtke). On his career: 17 wins by finish (14 KO’s, 3 Subs), 2 wins by decision.
- You watch this guy fight – and you get why he has all these finishes. His striking is crisp and powerful, and the gas tank doesn’t seem to be too bad (which may be the only thing you’re fearful about in this matchup). I know this is a step up in competition for Prates – but it’s not a huge jump, and his confidence has to be sky-high with an undefeated record since 2019.
- On the other side of the coin, you have the extremely durable Li Jingliang. The guy has never been KO’d in his career – and he’s only been submitted twice. However – the guy is 36 years old (very old for a WW) and he’s coming off a layoff of over one year due to spinal injuries. I know he must be feeling good and he will be in fight shape/cleared by the commission – but still, how can you have faith in an aged-out vet with spinal problems and a lack of recent form?
- I really hope Li comes out looking decent – but I don’t expect that. I think this one could get ugly fast, with Prates coming out like a shit-eating wild man and Li getting overwhelmed by the speed and power coming back at him.
- This can happen in combat sports – some guys never get finished through their whole career – and then at a certain point, that cast-iron chin just leaves. I’m leaning that way here, as Prates just seems to be too much at this point for Li.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NFL and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks:
UFC 305 Best Bets:
Pick: Israel Adesanya Moneyline (-110) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Steve Erceg Moneyline + Over 1.5 Rounds (+105) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Mateusz Gamrot Moneyline + Over 1.5 Rounds (-138) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Tai Tuivasa Moneyline (+187) 0.25u Bet365
Pick: Tai/Jairzinho Over 1.5 Rounds (+155) 0.25u Bet365
Pick: Carlos Prates Moneyline + Under 2.5 Rounds (-120) 0.5u Bet365