A loaded Fight Night card can only mean one thing – we’re back for some action. We are set with an absolutely rank UFC lineup slated for Abu Dhabi on Saturday Night (or Saturday Morning for most of us, because the UFC only moves cards to 5:00 a.m local time when it comes to debaucherous English fans, not the golden goose Saudi’s). Last week in the UK, we had some ups and some downs. Molly had her worst performance yet (and that’s saying something), Robocop found the fountain of youth and worked CLD, and Leon looked half asleep through the majority of the fight. Regardless – we came through relatively unscathed, cashing the Aspinall + Under 1.5 Rounds bet as well as the Arnold Allen + Over 1.5 Rounds. Here’s the recap if you missed it.
Since we’ve been back on the UFC following the NHL season conclusion – the bookies have been paying out. Here are the official updates (to this point) since we’ve gotten back into the MMA fray:
For Fight Night: Sandhagen vs Nurmagomedov, we’ve got 5 of the best reads I could come up with after tape study and an overall analysis of each fighter. It just so happens that this card is ripe with Underdog opportunities – my preferred way to bet MMA where there is so much volatility involved. The unit sizes may be smaller this week to mitigate some risk – but the wins could be huge with the + money we’re packing. I’m not just a value hunter – some of these lines look straight-up wrong to me. 4-5 years of betting MMA teaches you a few things – one key thing being that you shouldn’t look at the line and base your opinion from there. That’s why we’re taking the shot on some familiar crowd favourites tonight – so without further ado, let’s get to the violence people.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
UFC Fight Night Abu Dhabi: Sandhagen vs Nurmagomedov Best Bets:
Fight: Cory Sandhagen vs Umar Nurmagomedov
Pick: Cory Sandhagen Moneyline (+250) 0.35u Bet365
Pick: Cory Sandhagen Moneyline + Over 2.5 Rounds (+350) 0.15u Bet365
- I get it guys – we see “Nurmagomedov” pop up on the screen and immediately shit our pants thinking about betting against him. And hey – it’s fair. Umar has a great all-around game, blending superb striking with Dagestani wrestling to overwhelm opponents and grind them out.
- Nate Manness was a tough guy going to a decision with Umar, but ultimately he lost handily. Umar knocked out Barcelos in the 1st round following the Manness fight, which is pretty decent, but nothing to write home about. His last fight against Bekzat Almakan …. not great. Sure, he pulled out the decision win and dominated Bekzat for the majority of the fight. But Bekzat dropped Umar in the 1st round, and overall, I wouldn’t call it a “successful outing” based on the expectation.
- The thing is – level of competition still matters. Umar hasn’t fought anyone nearly on the level of Sandhagen. Like, not even close. Umar might as well have been fighting on the regional scene – because this is his first true “Welcome to the UFC” moment. Sportsbooks and the public at large thinks he rises to this challenge the first instant he’s faced with it. I do not.
- While Umar hasn’t looked close to gassing out in his 3 round UFC fights, he’s never gone 5 rounds in the UFC, and Sandhagen is going to put an absolute PACE on this guy from start to finish.
- I’m not saying Umar will totally gas out, but even if he wears out just a little bit, Cory will take advantage with his renewed gameplan of offensive wrestling while mixing in his patented unorthodox striking from both distance and the clinch.
- Cory has faced the creme-de-la-creme of this decision since 2020 – and even though he’s beat (or very nearly beat) everyone the UFC has put in his path – the odds imply that he only wins this fight 28% of the time. Against a guy without 5 round experience … that just got rocked in his last fight by a guy outside the Top 15 … that has only one finish in his last three fights against middling 135ers. Please make it make sense.
- Take the Sandman and add a little flavour with the Same-Game-Parlay (SGP). While Cory’s the pick to win, he is not a potent finisher (his last finish was Song Yadong in the 4th round due to a nasty cut). Over 2.5 Rounds seems pretty safe. Time to Enter Sandman shitbirds.
Fight: Shara Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
Pick: Shara Magomedov Moneyline + No Distance (-120) 0.4u Bet365
Pick: Shara Magomedov Moneyline + Over 1.5 Rounds + No Distance (+450) 0.1u Bet365
- Shara “Bullet” Magomedov might only have one eye, and he might have a face that only a mother could love – but damn I like him in this spot. This is more about Mikey O than it is Bullet, but they both set up well for the result.
- Shara hasn’t looked amazing in the UFC to this point – but he’s been solid for a former stud Muay Thai fighter with limited MMA experience. The decision win over Bruno Silva was nothing to scoff at – remember when Bruno took Alex Periera to a decision? Then, Shara let loose late in his fight with Trocoli, knocking him out with a filthy left hook in Round 3.
- Shara’s grappling? It’s a work in progress, no doubt about it. His gas tank? Not bad, not great – but being able to finish UFC-caliber fighters in Round 3 would suggest the power carries through the whole fight. That’s what we like to see, especially when it comes to the very finishable Mikey O.
- Mikey O is like dynamite. The guy can pop off early and absolutely explode with a finish in the 1st Round (like he did against Njokuani three fights ago, or Brundage two fights before that). However, if his opponent can survive the initial onslaught and come back with their own power and technique, it’s game over for Mikey (and usually pretty quickly).
- 4 fights ago, Caio Borralho got through the onslaught in the 1st …. subs Mikey in the 2nd. 2 fights ago, Michel Periera took a few early shots …. absolutely starches Mikey O later in the 1st. Same went for Holland …. who decided to go armbar in the 1st instead of KO – but you get the point.
- The thing is – while I expect Shara to finish the fight – he hasn’t shown a tendency to get guys out of their quick like Michel Pereira and Holland both had a tendency of doing. That’s why we’re taking a little extra boost with the SGP, threading the needle with a late finish.
Fight: Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa
Pick: Tony Ferguson Moneyline (+400) 0.2u Bet365
Pick: Tony Ferguson Moneyline + No Distance (+750) 0.05u Bet365
- Trust me – I’m not super confident in Tony. Who could be with his recent performances? So I won’t lie to you and tell you that I’m feeling some type of way about El Cucuy. It’s just ….. man ….. Chiesa has not looked good AT ALL lately either – and he gets a -550 line for this scrap? Can anyone tell me why???
- Chiesa should be the favourite – but only a slight favourite (due to his likely weight and grappling advantage). I mean, look at Chiesa’s last fight against Holland. Tony is no Holland, but Chiesa couldn’t string together more than two shots against Kev. His grappling entries were sloppy, and he kept ducking his head every time he entered the pocket. It kinda looked like he forgot how to fight to be honest – up until Kev put him out of his misery with that nasty D’arce choke.
- Two fights before that – Chiesa looked even slower. Luque worked him pillar to post and got a Round 1 D’arce choke to match Holland. The fight in between – against Sean Brady – wasn’t too bad. Yet, Chiesa was still dominated until Brady took the last round off. How do Chiesa’s last three fights get you a -550 line against a still very relevant fighter in Tony Ferguson?
- For those arguing that Tony isn’t relevant anymore – okay, maybe he isn’t when it comes to World Titles. Doesn’t mean Tony can’t still put on good UFC performances. We saw how good Paddy was last week, and Tony fought “The Baddy” competitively. Bobby Green was destroying people at the time he fought Tony – and there Tony was, still moving forward and pressuring Bobby late into the 3rd round. He’s lost 7 consecutive fights – but they’ve been against much higher class fighters (at least at this point in their careers) than Michael Chiesa.
- This will be an ugly fight. But Chiesa will be slower on the feet, he’s vulnerable to submissions on the ground, and he will run out of gas before Tony does. If you want to lay the juice on a guy like that – be my guest. I’ll just be sitting in the corner, wearing my sunglasses inside, ankle picking my way into a huge underdog win.
Fight: Mackenzie Dern vs Lupita Godinez
Pick: Mackenzie Dern Moneyline (-125) 0.4u Bet365
Pick: Mackenzie Dern Moneyline + No Distance (+210) 0.1u Bet365
- I actually like Loopy Godinez a lot as a fighter. She’s tough, she fights for your dollar, and she’s a pretty good generalist. It’s just too bad that with Dern – none of those things are going to matter, as the ground-skill and technique discrepancy will leave Loopy frustrated and reckless, trapped on the ground with one of the best BJJ practicioners out there.
- One only has to look at Loopy’s last fight to see why. She took on Jandiroba, a pretty good generalist herself with good grappling for the division. While Jandiroba only went 2/9 on her takedowns – she won because of her grappling. She got Loppy’s back at the end of the 1st Round, and ended up in bottom position in the 2nd round, only to flip the position and end up on top.
- The 3rd round …. you guessed it, another takedown for Jandiroba. And trust me, none of these takedowns by Jandiroba were what I would consider to be “technical takedowns”. She just muscled her down.
- Now, we take a look at Dern her last time out. What a wild fight with Lemos. Lemos is an amazing striker in this division, and she let Dern have it with some nasty leg kicks and slick counters (which I’m sure Loppy will utilize as well). The thing is … Loopy doesn’t have the same level of striking that Lemos has.
- Further, after Dern figured out that the striking was not going to go her way with Lemos, she started lunging into grappling situations, attempting takedowns and pulling guard whenever she could. Each and every single time she did this, she ended up in top position on the ground within a minute, progressing from half guard to mount with ease and winning every ground exchange.
- For those who don’t know – Dern has some of the best jiu-jitsu in the UFC, with an ADCC title to her name (most prestigious BJJ tourney in the world) as the daughter of Wellington Diaz, who was an amazing grappler himself back in the day.
- I envision this one playing out like the Jandiroba/Loopy fight. Loopy should win the exchanges on the feet, prior to things getting ugly, where Dern will start her grappling work and bring Loopy into deep waters. With the danger of Dern’s grappling considered – I’m leaning toward a finish.
Fight: Joel Alvarez vs Elves Brener
Pick: Joel Alvarez Moneyline + No Distance (-115) 0.35u Bet365
Pick: Joel Alvarez Moneyline + Under 1.5 Rounds (+200) 0.15u Bet365
- I got some real faith in gigantic Joel here, especially after he recently disposed of Moises like he was some Tomato Can while also submitting D1 Diakiese. His only loss in the UFC is to Arman Tsaryukyan (absolute stud of the division and currently the #3 155er in the world) – and even there he put up a good fight until halfway through the 2nd round.
- Alvarez is 6’ 3” – Brener is 5’ 10”. Alvares will destroy Brener from range, and once Brener starts trying to enter the pocket so he can reach Alvarez, he will start with the knees and uppercuts, intercepting Brenner on each entry.
- If Brener goes for the takedown? Alvarez will sub him like he did Diakiese. Alvarez’s calling card is actually his world class BJJ (17 pro wins by submission), not his menacing striking.
- If Brener tries to strike with Alvarez (which is not a good idea considering Brener has been pieced up in the 1st round of each of his last two fights while on the feet), he will end up dead.
- Both avenues – you’re covered with Alvarez. The awesome thing about Joel to go along with all his skills – he’s only gone to decision once in his career, and that was 5 years ago against a then-stud Damir Ismagulov. Expect this one to be violent, and expect Joel to come out without a scratch.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NFL Futures and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Fight: Cory Sandhagen vs Umar Nurmagomedov
Pick: Cory Sandhagen Moneyline (+250) 0.35u Bet365
Pick: Cory Sandhagen Moneyline + Over 2.5 Rounds (+350) 0.15u Bet365
Fight: Shara Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
Pick: Shara Magomedov Moneyline + No Distance (-120) 0.4u Bet365
Pick: Shara Magomedov Moneyline + Over 1.5 Rounds + No Distance (+450) 0.1u Bet365
Fight: Tony Ferguson vs Michael Chiesa
Pick: Tony Ferguson Moneyline (+400) 0.2u Bet365
Pick: Tony Ferguson Moneyline + No Distance (+750) 0.05u Bet365
Fight: Mackenzie Dern vs Lupita Godinez
Pick: Mackenzie Dern Moneyline (-125) 0.4u Bet365
Pick: Mackenzie Dern Moneyline + No Distance (+210) 0.1u Bet365
Fight: Joel Alvarez vs Elves Brener
Pick: Joel Alvarez Moneyline + No Distance (-115) 0.35u Bet365
Pick: Joel Alvarez Moneyline + Under 1.5 Rounds (+200) 0.15u Bet365