Hello again my friends! After getting through a stinker of a week last week with the 3M Open (c’mon JJ Spaun, needed that Top 8 with one more birdie), we get to move on to a very unique golf experience. That’s right – this week, we have the pleasure of watching these guys play for their country, where all the stakes are raised at the 2024 Summer Olympic Games. We see golfers play for their countries in both the Presidents Cup and the Ryder Cup – but this is different. There’s no team aspect to this competition – it’s a complete free-for-all. On top of that – the thought of an Olympic medal, something missing from the trophy shelf of a lot of the top former/current golfers in the world, is enough to get anybody’s juices flowing.
Before we get to the course setup this week in Paris, here’s a recap of last week to keep everyone up to date on where we are through the season:
On to the golf course to see what aspects of the game we’ll be targeting this week.
The Course: Le Golf National (Paris)
Many of the golf nerds reading this will recognize this course as the host course for the 2018 Ryder Cup. However, there is a big difference with the setup this year as opposed to the setup for that event.
In 2018, the rough was severely brought back and shortened. This made the course play quite easy (even when guys missed fairways off the tee), as the lies in the rough were miraculous compared to an average event on the Tour. For the 2024 Olympics, the course has gone back to thicc (with two c’s) rough, where there will be a clear first cut of rough (not very penal) with a cabbage patch of rough in the second cut (very penal). You know what that means – driving accuracy will be key. Sure, we like guys that can hit it a long way too. But with the rough being this nasty, fairways are going to lead to strokes-gained more than distance.
Well, would you look at that – another course where approach play is absolutely paramount. You can actually be a really bad putter here and have success (look at Sergio Garcia winning here a while ago for proof of that), but proximity on approach will have to be pretty stellar. Distances can vary on approach quite a bit, so we’re looking for a guy that can hit all his irons/wedges pretty well, with good approach play out of the rough if possible.
As I stated above – you don’t need to be a good putter to win here. However, the scrambling should at least be average, with an increased advantage to those guys who can play well with thick rough around the greens (a lot like the around-the-green setup at the Memorial).
With all that considered, we want a guy that: (1) gains strokes off the tee with good accuracy, (2) hits approach shots well from all distances, while being decent from the rough, and (3) a decent scrambler with good around-the-green play from thick rough.
Without further ado – let’s meet the guys that fit the criteria this week.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from DataGolf.com
2024 Paris Olympics Golf Bets:
Pick: Scottie Scheffler Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 3 Places (+550) 0.5u E/W (1.0u total) Bet365
*If you are unfamiliar with Each-Way bets, all it really means is that we are placing two bets in one – one bet on Scheffler to win, and one on him to get in the top 3. If he wins outright, we get the full +550 dollar payout, but if he only gets in the top 3, we are looking at a reduction of ⅕ to the odds. So $100 E/W ($200 total) on Scheffler at this line pays $860 if he wins (cashing the placement bet and the outright bet), and $210 if he only comes in the top 3. Dead-heat rules also apply – check your gambling site for the rules on that.
That’s right – I’m going somewhat square this week. I mean, this line isn’t too crazy: Xander is only +650 on the Outrights-only market. This golf course just sets up so well for Scheffler that it overrides his recent struggles (if you can really call them that). I mean, sure he finished T41 at the US Open and didn’t really push for the win at the Open (finishing 7th). But he has won 2 of his last 4 Tourneys in stacked fields (Memorial and Travelers), and just prior to that, he had a runner-up finish at the Charles Schwab. Seems to me Scottie is doing just fine.
There really isn’t any way to tear apart Schefflers’ game. His strokes gained (SG) off-the-tee (OTT) numbers are absurd, as he is regularly over +1.00 SG OTT per round, and the last time he lost strokes OTT was in February. This is due, in large part, to his accuracy OTT. He’s gained accuracy OTT in 9 of his last 10 starts, and a couple of those included double-digit percentage gains.
His approach game? Stupid good. Look at all this green from DataGolf.com in the APP column:
Scottie is also Top 10 in SGAPP per/shot from under 150 yards in the rough, and top 20 in SGAPP per/shot from over 150 yards in the rough. The guy is the best ballstriker on the planet right now – and it’s not particularly close.
If you also want to take a look at that screenshot from DataGolf.com above – his scrambling is top notch. In the rare cases this guy does miss the green, he has an amazing ability to get it close from just off the dance floor. When a guy has amazing OTT and APP play – it’s rare to see good scrambling too.
Of course, Scotties’ bugaboo has and always will be his putting. But remember – that isn’t a huge concern at this course. If Scottie keeps hitting darts within 15 feet (as I expect him to do almost every hole), he’s going to have to hit some putts – even if he just hits them by accident.
Scottie Too Hottie is the pick – with some Top 3 coverage in case one of these other studs starts shooting the lights out in France.
Pick: Rory McIlroy Outright (Bet Without Scottie and Xander) (+600) 0.5u Bet365
Ooooo this is a sneaky one. We’re dipping into the “winner without Scheffler and Schauffele” market with my favourite Euro golfer this week – prime for a bounce back after the shitshow that was the Open Championship.
Many people might forget that prior to The Open, Rory had 3 Top 5 finishes in 4 events. Yea, pretty damn good. The devastating solo 2nd at the US Open was a definite step back, but Rory has still been playing amazing golf.
We all know Rory bombs it OTT, where he’s perennially in the Top 5 on Tour when it comes to driving distance. His accuracy OTT? Hit or miss. But he was: +8% fwys at the Genesis, +16% fwys at the US Open, and +5% fwys at the Memorial. That’s pretty stellar when you’re consistently carrying the ball 310+ yards.
His approach play – hasn’t been amazing. Strokes lost to the field on approach in 2 straight tournaments – not something we’re used to seeing with Rory. However, prior to that, Rory gained strokes on approach in 10 straight events – so I expect him to be back there this week (especially when considering he is Top 10 in the world with +150 yards approach shots from the rough).
His scrambling is stellar. Consistently gaining around +0.5-1.0 strokes ARG per/round is nasty, and while the putter has been cold for two straight events, I could see it getting hot with the focus amped up significantly this week.
Let’s see it McIlroy – it would be such a Rory thing to do to get the gold medal after failing once again to secure that next Major.
Pick: Collin Morikawa Outright (Bet Without Scottie, Xander, and Rory) (+750) 0.5u Bet365
Another sneaky one here – every course sets up well for Collin. Just look at the recent results: Top 20’s at the US Open, the Travelers, and The Open; Top 5’s at the Genesis, Memorial, Charles Schwab, and PGA Championship.
One reason – he’s one of the most accurate golfers OTT. Fairways gained in every event since October of last year – and some of the accuracy numbers are astounding (+17% on fairways for the Travelers, for example). He always lacks a bit of distance – but that doesn’t concern me with the way he hits his irons.
The approach game – stupid good recently. He’s averaging around +1.0 SG per/round over his last 7 events. Not to mention his approach play 150+ yards from the rough is close to 10th on the whole Tour (95th percentile). Expect Collin to hit darts.
Further – other than The Open – Collin was gaining strokes on command when it came to his scrambling and putting. 5 straight Tourneys with positive strokes gained in the around-the-green and putting categories. The consistency is unparalleled, even when comparing him to Scottie.
If it isn’t going to be those top 3 studs with a gold medal around their neck – I’m guessing it’s Morikawa. But no worries folks: we still have two golfers to target, and they could be the longshot doozy that ends up paying for your weekend – and then some.
Pick: Tom Kim Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 8 Places (+2000) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
The game may be inconsistent – but Tom Kim is a straight competitor. If you haven’t seen him play at the last Presidents Cup – here’s all the evidence you need to show this guy has the stones for big competition:
His last 4 events, he was: cut at The Open, T15 at the Genesis, cut at the Rocket Mortgage, and T-2nd at the Travelers. Try to make sense of that. It’s the underlying numbers that make Tommy Boy as good a play as there is this week.
His accuracy OTT is one aspect that screams “possible winner” here. I’m throwing The Open driving stats out because of the crazy tough conditions – prior to that, Tom gained fairways on the field in five straight events. His distance isn’t insane, but he hits the short grass consistently.
Approach play? Also very good, and very important on this course. Crazy numbers recently, like +0.73 SGAPP per/round at the Genesis, +1.61 SGAPP per/round at the Travelers, and +1.29 SGAPP per/round at the US Open. His approach game is balanced from all distances, where he’s consistently better than Tour average from 50-100 yards, 100-150 yards, 150-200 yards, and 200+ yards. That’s great for the varying approach distances on this course.
Scrambling and putting? Not great. But he gained strokes ARG in both the Genesis and the Travelers, and he gained strokes putting in 4 of his last 5 Events. If he puts everything together – he can go very low. That’s what we’re looking for when it comes to an Outright bet – no middling golfers allowed.
Pick: Hideki Matsuyama Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 8 Places (+2800) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
Hideki is another guy who hasn’t been the model of consistency lately. T66 at The Open, right after a missed cut at the Genesis. That ain’t good. But this guy can get up there on the leaderboard – finishing Top 10 at both the US Open and the Memorial. That’s the kind of upside we want for an Outright bet ladies and gents.
The key with Hideki – he is the best scrambler on Tour. Out of his last 16 events, Hideki has gained strokes ARG in 14 of them. Masterful from the fringe, especially when it’s thick as it was at the Memorial (+0.76 SGARG per/round).
His driver is straightening out as well. He gained accuracy OTT in 4 of his last 5 events, and his distance was higher than the field in his last 4 events. The OTT game is good.
Approach play …. goes back and forth. About field-average at The Open and Genesis. Below average at the Travelers. BUT – two straight events prior to that where he had over +1.0 SGAPR per/round, which is extremely good. Hideki is also over the 60th percentile when it comes to rough approach shots under 150 yards (66th percentile) and over 150 yards (63rd percentile). He’s everything you want in a golfer this week.
Take a shot on the guy who pulled off a stunner in 2021 at The Masters – he could pull one out again in a high-stakes spot.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with UFC and NFL Futures bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
2024 Paris Olympics Golf Bets:
Pick: Scottie Scheffler Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 3 Places (+550) 0.5u E/W (1.0u total) Bet365
Pick: Rory McIlroy Outright (Bet Without Scottie and Xander) (+600) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Collin Morikawa Outright (Bet Without Scottie, Xander, and Rory) (+750) 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Tom Kim Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 8 Places (+2000) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365
Pick: Hideki Matsuyama Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 8 Places (+2800) 0.25u E/W (0.5u total) Bet365