We’re back my friends! Another big UFC PPV gives us a chance to keep cashin, as we’re riding some kind of wave right now with UFC PPV winners. We’re seeing the board a lot like we did for UFC 302 and 303, and all that resulted in was $510 dollars profit on $100 unit bets:
For UFC 304 – it’s another short and sweet article. This worked last time, and I find the bullet point analysis to be the most efficient way of explaining the reads. So without further ado, let’s keep pumping these dubs out.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
UFC 304 Best Bets:
Pick: Leon Edwards + Over 2.5 Rounds (Same-Game-Parlay (SGP)) +100 – 0.5u Bet365
- Leon is pure class – the only guy that can beat him at 170 right now is himself. The fear is that he loses himself within the fight (as he did with Diaz at the end when he got rocked, or in the Usman fight prior to the headshot heard around the world).
- I don’t see that happening with the disdain and increased confidence Leon has in this matchup. He is now clearly “the guy” after beating two of the best wrestlers/fighters this division has ever seen, and if you saw the first couple minutes of Leon vs Belal 1 (ended as a No Contest with the unfortunate eye poke) – Leon has no reservations going straight at Belal, almost disrespecting his power and the wrestling threat.
- There will be many who say: “Leon only got lucky with the Usman KO, and then he beat two guys that are washed due to age and injuries.” C’mon now, that’s just lazy. Usman is still an insanely formidable fighter, and would’ve beat Khamzat Chimaev (you know, the undefeated guy who has torn through the 170 lbs and 185 lbs divisions) if the fight would’ve been five rounds – and that was up a weight class. The usually aggressive and brash Covington, who had previously outwrestled and outgassed everyone, became a shell of himself at the pure thought of Leon’s striking. What more do you need to see before you realize Leon is just on a different level?
- For as unspectacular as Belal has been, he’s had some solid wins. But there are caveats to each one. The latest Burns fight was an example of a burnt out, injured fighter getting grapple fucked the whole fight (poor Burns). The Vicente Luque fight? Belal couldn’t get the finish, and if you think Usman or Covington are washed, I’d hate to see what you think of Luque. Before that, a win over Sean Brady, who, let’s be honest, is not and will never be a Top 5 fighter in the division. I just can’t get behind the strength-of-schedule here, and the Leon performances look so much better with level of competition considered.
- Belal, being the jack-of-all-trades that he is, will have to wrestle to have even a remote chance of sniffing a win. He will get pieced up on the feet. The issue is – Leon has been training wrestling and takedown defence to such a significant extent over the last two years because he had to face the best wrestlers in the divisions’ history. If you think Belal has the level of wrestling that both those guys have, even at their advanced age – go ahead and bet him. I just see it as a risky bet to make when you can still get plus-money with this SGP.
- To end this one off – two more points. 1) The fight is in England, and with the judging being so wacky, you gotta believe the lean will go to the hometown boy if it’s a close one, and 2) Belal hasn’t been finished since 2016, and Leon hasn’t finished anyone in the first 12.5 minutes since 2015. I could see a late finish, but definitely not an early one.
Pick: Tom Aspinall + Under 1.5 Rounds (SGP) -120 – 0.5u Bet365
- I get the Curtis Blaydes love, I really do. He’s a good wrestler, and he’s popped off a few Top 10 wins now. He looked decent in the first 15 seconds of the first matchup between these two (where Aspinall blew out his knee and had to stop the fight). For whatever that’s worth.
- The thing is – Blaydes’ may have looked good recently, but I can’t say the performances were on par with the results. Jailton Almeida may have made the biggest dumb-dumb move I’ve ever seen, lazily shooting for the takedown and refusing to move his head when he was eating 10 clinch elbows from Blaydes prior to getting knocked out. Prior to that, Almeida had 9 (!!!!) takedowns on Blaydes in 9 minutes of action. Ouchie. Before that fight – he was flatline KO’d by Pavlovich in the 1st round (the same Pavlovich that Aspinall knocked out in his last fight). Prior to that fight – a win against Chris Daukaus ….. that doesn’t move the needle for me, as Daukaus isn’t even a gatekeeper of the division.
- Meanwhile, Aspinall’s been on a tear. The previously mentioned win against Pavlovich may have been scary for a second – it looked like Aspinall got chin checked – but adversity only made this guy step up. He fought fire with fire and dropped Pavlovich like a sack of potatoes – a nasty result considering the run Pavlovich was on. He made Tybura (who is a better fighter than Daukaus) fold within two minutes before that, and Volkov didn’t last much longer when Aspinall got the stranglehold on him. Volkov, as you saw recently in his fight with Pavlovich, is a pretty fucking good Heavyweight. Aspinall made him look like a chump. Levels people.
- If Aspinall is winning – it’s within the first 7.5 minutes. It’s been years since Aspinall went over 1.5 rounds (Arlovski fight at the beginning of 2021) – and even with a lack of experience, against a crafty vet, he still got the finish before the 2nd round finished. Lock it in people.
Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan + No Distance (SGP) +120 – 0.25u Bet365
- I love me some “Robocop” Gregory Rodrigues – as he’s always the entertainer. And he’s coming off some decent wins, beating up Brad Tavares and taking Chidi Njokuani out. The fear is – if you’ve been watching this guy – he loves to leave his chin up in the air.
- Robocop plods forward, and rarely moves his head off the centerline. For his opponents – it’s easy target practice. He’s been able to win with this style because (a) he has/had a good chin, and (b) he throws mad power on his counters.
- The thing is – a guy with a very limited game, that relies on his hands, and specifically his power – recently rocked Robocop into a different dimension. Brunno Ferriera, a journeyman without much to his game but a puncher’s chance, got that KO in the 1st round. And how did he set it up? Well, he really didn’t. He absorbed Robocops shots early, found the counters, and scored the easy chin-check because Rodriguez was out of position.
- Rodrigues’ only hope against a proficient striker like CLD is to grapple as much as possible, something that he (kind of) did in the Tavares fight. The issue is – I don’t think he’s nearly as strong as CLD, so the clinch isn’t likely to be his friend for long.
- CLD is a young marksman with both the hands and feet – and carries good size for the division. He’s younger than Rodrigues (29 years old vs 32 years old), he’s more athletic, and he’s finished all three of his wins in the UFC.
- Rodriguez is going the wrong way in terms of damage and the age curve, and CLD is going the exact opposite direction with minimal damage and a peak-age. We’ve all seen Robocop get floored before, and CLD always looks for the finish. It all lines up.
Pick: Arnold Allen + Over 1.5 Rounds (SGP) -110 – 0.5u Bet365
- Arnold Allen: A fighter in his prime (30 years of age) who has recently faced two Top 5 guys in the division and took them to decision (Evloev and Holloway). He also had two recent fights against prime fighters in the division (Dan Hooker and Calvin Kattar) where he had KO’s under 7.5 minutes into the fight. Full disclosure – Kattar injured his knee and had to stop the fight in that one, and I don’t know if Hooker’s chin was all there after dropping to 145. Regardless, Allen looked very good in all of those fights.
- Giga Chikadze: A fighter exiting his prime (35 years of age) that has no takedown defence (got taken down by Kattar, who never shoots, and absolutely got worked in that decision loss). The loss to Kattar is significant, as he took so much damage there, I didn’t know if he was ever coming back. While Giga has never gotten finished in the UFC – I could see a late finish here.
- Arnold is a great grappler, and his striking has improved leaps and bounds since his start with the UFC. He will be able to stand with Giga for periods of time, and if he starts to drop his level and shoot, even just a couple times, this one could turn into a route.
Pick: Nathaniel Wood + Molly McCann (Parlay) -176 – 0.5u Bet365
- While there is some juice with this one – I can’t see these two losing.
- Molly looked so good in her 115 lbs debut last time out, showing a renewed game with a good gas tank and decent grappling. Her grappling is especially effective at 115, where she can be a weight bully. Her striking has never been bad, so this all-around game was so good to see. Meanwhile, Bruna Brasil got straight dominated on the ground by a 105 lbs Thai fighter in Loma Lookboonme and got KO’d by Denise Gomes (a pretty mid fighter in the division). Expect Molly to work Bruna everywhere in this one.
- Nathaniel had to face the biggest cheat in the UFC in his last fight – and still almost came away with the dub. Naimov was grabbing his glove, grabbed the cage multiple times, had several nut shots – and never got a point taken away. That was Wood’s second time at 145 lbs, where he had previously beat Andre Fili in his debut at Featherweight. One has to think Wood is getting even better at fighting with the increased weight against bigger guys.
- With all of that said – Pineda (Wood’s opponent) is just not that impressive. He beat Tucker Lutz (bumski), sure. But prior to that: a loss to Bruce Leroy Caceres. Prior to that, his last fight was in 2020. Impossible to take anything away from those results when the guy is now a 38 year old Featherweight (extremely old for the division). Wood should be able to beat Pineda anywhere and everywhere – adding to his success at 145 and appeasing the English crowd.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with UFC and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
UFC 304 Best Bets:
Pick: Leon Edwards + Over 2.5 Rounds (Same-Game-Parlay (SGP)) +100 – 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Tom Aspinall + Under 1.5 Rounds (SGP) -120 – 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan + No Distance (SGP) +120 – 0.25u Bet365
Pick: Arnold Allen + Over 1.5 Rounds (SGP) -110 – 0.5u Bet365
Pick: Nathaniel Wood + Molly McCann (Parlay) -176 – 0.5u Bet365