Welcome back my friends! With the Major Championships all wrapped up this year – capped with Xander going for the double dip – we’re on to the backend of the PGA schedule. There are enough events left for a lot of these guys to fight back into a Fedex Cup Playoff spot – which is massively important for their bank accounts. With that considered, we actually have a pretty decent field at the 3M Open in Minnesota this week (considering last week was as intense and testing a Major as we’ve seen this year). It’s clear some of these premier golfers (i.e. Tony Finau) want to make up some ground and place highly this weekend to ensure a better Fedex Cup Playoff position. Regardless, we still have wide variance with such a large field lacking premier talent – so this week is ripe for Outright Each-Ways.
This Tournament and Golf Course aren’t the most extreme test of skill on Tour – but there are some keys to doing well on this setup, with a lot of trouble that these guys’ can get themselves into. So without further ado, let’s get into the course to see what we’re aiming for with our picks this week.
The Course: TPC Twin Cities (Minnesota)
TPC TC is a very interesting course, measuring long at 7,431 yards with a par of 71. The average green sizes are quite a bit larger than PGA average, making for an increased green-in-regulation (GIR) percent compared to usual. The ease with which these guys hit greens is negated by the danger posed by water all over the course. 15 of the 18 holes have water in play, and there are approximately 27 water hazards on the course.
With that considered – Off-the-Tee (OTT) play comes down more to accuracy than distance here. Guys don’t have to smoke the ball a mile – they just have to avoid the water and get the ball out there near the fairway from the tee box. The majority of the Top 10 in the 2023 and 2022 versions of this Tournament didn’t gain distance on the field – making it apparent OTT accuracy is key.
Like most setups – the boys are going to make their hay this week on approach shots. Unlike most recent setups – the average approach distance will be pretty damn high. We’ve gotten used to wedge-play dominating recent Tourneys – but with this one, the majority of approach shots will come from around 175 yards. You will have your 125-150 yard approach shots, and you’ll have your 200+ yard approach shots – but they average out around 175 yards. Long iron play is going to show up huge, and it’s even more paramount with the lower scrambling percent here compared to Tour average.
As stated above – scrambling is tough here. If you miss the green, it’s going to be tough to make up shots on the field. Putting, as always, is going to be hit-or-miss here. There are many guys that finished Top 10 in the field in the 2023 and 2022 versions of this Tournament that also lost strokes putting to the field. Nevertheless, a guy that has shown to be a good putter in this tournament before should give us a good indication that they know how to get around these greens.
With all that said – let’s see the studs that will be getting our action this weekend, guys that have games to fit this course and pull out the dub.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data comes from DataGolf.com
2024 3M Open Outright Each-Way Bets
Pick: Akshay Bhatia Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 8 Places (+1800) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total) Bet365
*If you are unfamiliar with Each-Way bets, all it really means is that we are placing two bets in one – one bet on Bhatia to win, and one on him to get in the top 8. If he wins outright, we get the full +1800 dollar payout, but if he only gets in the top 8, we are looking at a reduction of ⅕ to the payout. So $10 E/W ($20 total) on Bhatia at this line pays $236 if he wins, and $47.20 if he only comes in the top 8. Dead-heat rules also apply – check your gambling site for the rules on that.
I’ll tell you one thing – Bhatia’s missed cut at the Open Championship last week does not scare me one bit. In fact, it might make me more confident in him, as he didn’t have to go through the mental and physical strain of Saturday + Sunday at that monstrosity of a course in Troon. The fact of the situation is – Akshay has the perfect game for this course – and his results recently (excluding the Open) point to another win for the string-bean wunderkind.
We’ll start with recent results. Prior to The Open, Akshay had: a T2 at the Rocket Mortgage (comparable field to this Tourney), T5 at the Travelers, T16 at the US Open, and T22 at Memorial. The guy is playing very good golf lately.
While Akshay hasn’t played this Tournament yet in his career – he meets all the criteria for a chance at winning. Bhatia is extremely accurate OTT, hitting more fairways than the field in each of his last 7 Tournaments. That includes hitting +18% of fairways vs the field at The Open Championship. Not only that, but Akshay maintains his distance with this stellar accuracy, gaining distance OTT on the field in his last 3 events.
In terms of approach play – Akshay is pretty damn solid. He’s gained strokes on approach in 4 of his last 6 Tournaments, including an absurd +1.42 strokes-gained-approach (SGAPR) per/round at the Rocket Mortgage. Further, with his strokes gained per shot from 150 to 200 yards on approach (+0.44 SGAPR), he’s in the 92nd percentile on Tour since 2024 began. That means he’s in the top 8% on the PGA when it comes to approach shots over 150 yards. Perfect for this setup.
The scrambling and putting for Bhatia – not amazing. Regardless, he’s gained strokes putting on the field in 4 of his last 6 events, and his scrambling has been right around Tour average over his last 4 events.
Akshay has it all this week – recent form, great accuracy OTT, good distance, amazing approach play from 150+ yards, and a putter that can get hot. Ride him to the finish line folks.
Pick: Luke Clanton Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 8 Places (+2500) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total) Bet365
This one might not be the most in-depth analysis due to the lack of data on DataGolf.com for Clanton (he hasn’t played enough rounds to qualify for a profile page yet – he’s still an amateur after all). You’re just gonna have to trust me on this one – and if you don’t trust me, just take a peek at my pick (it was Luke) to win the John Deere Classic weeks ago, where he finished runner-up and cashed a huge each-way:
The guy has amazing approach play. Honestly, if you just watched him play over the past few weeks – you know this guy can put it close. But let’s start with his OTT game. Clanton has played 4 PGA Tournaments – and in each one, he has gained accuracy on the field. His distance is above Tour average too – so his driving game really fits this setup.
As stated above – Clanton’s approach play is en fuego as of late. He didn’t gain any strokes on approach at the PGA alternate event two weeks ago – the ISCO. But prior to that, he had +6.8 SGAPR total in his 2nd place finish at the John Deere, +3.3 SGAPR at the Rocket Mortgage, and +1.5 SGAPR at a tough US Open. While it is a limited sample size – the guy can hit his irons really well.
Scrambling will never be this guy’s game – he’s lost over 2 strokes to the field in that area in 3 of 4 PGA Tournaments he’s played. Again though – scrambling is going to be tough on this course regardless with water trouble lurking everywhere, so I’m not putting as much stock into that. Surprisingly, for a guy that is deadly OTT and precise on approach – the guy can putt too. +1.7 strokes-gained-putting (SGP) at the US Open, +3.5 SGP at the Rocket Mortgage, and +1.9 SGP at the John Deere.
While this guy still has a lot to prove – there are many cases where amateurs / young guys get on Tour and immediately dominate. Look at Hovland and Matt Wolff a few years back – or Aberg most recently. Clanton is that guy – mark my words.
Pick: Keith Mitchell Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 8 Places (+2800) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total) Bet365
Bare with me here – as Keith has been pretty shitty recently. He had a Top 20 at the John Deere recently, but also missed the cut at the Barracuda (alternate event, so that stings) and the Genesis Scottish Open. On its face – this bet looks like a loser.
But hold up here – we haven’t looked at Keith’s recent 3M Open finishes. And would you look at that: Top 5 finishes at the 3M Open the last two years. Keith knows how to play this course well, and there are some very interesting discrepancies in his play here that could lead some to believe the win is a mere approach shot away.
For as mediocre as Keith’s game has been this year – he crushes approach shots. Out of his last 16 Tournaments, he has positive SGAPR in 14 showings. He also remains pretty accurate OTT (around Tour average) while mashing the ball further than just about anyone (+19.1 and +16.7 yards gained OTT in last 2 Tourneys).
The funny thing is – Mitchell has lost strokes on approach both times he’s finished Top 5 here. This just doesn’t make sense when his approach game is so good, specifically when he’s in the top 7% of players on Tour (in 2024) with approach shots 150+ yards.
What really has us leaning this way is how Keith putts on these greens. Mitchell is notoriously a bad putter (lost strokes to the field putting in 4 of last 5 showings) – but at the 3M, he gains a ridiculous amount of strokes on the green. You can call it what you want: the lines fitting his putting style, his increased ability to read these greens, etc. The facts are – Mitchell putts extremely well on this course (+1.23 SGP per/round in 2023, +1.76 SGP per/round in 2022). With his monstrous distance, decent accuracy OTT, and regularly good approach play – things could come together just right to put this guy at the top of the leaderboard. Let’s give it a go.
Pick: Keegan Bradley Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 8 Places (+2800) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total) Bet365
His recent appointment as U.S. Ryder Cup captain has to have Keegan feeling pretty good – as should his recent form at his advanced age. We aren’t very far removed from Keegan going T21 at the Wells Fargo, T18 at the PGA Championship, and T2 at the Charles Schwab. While his last three events aren’t as sterling – that’s encouraging.
Keegan only played the 3M in 2021 (T39 finish) and 2019 (T46 finish) – but his game fits the course, especially as of late. Accuracy OTT? He’s got it, with fairways gained on the field in 7 of his last 8 showings. Approach play? Actually pretty damn good, with an average of +0.613 SGAPR per/round over his last 10 Tourneys. On top of that, he’s in the top 13% of PGA golfers when it comes to approach shots +150 yards. Perfecto.
This is one guy that can get really hot with the putter as well. Prior to a disgusting -1.5 SGP per/round at the Open Championship, he had:
- +0.86 SGP per/round at the Travelers;
- +0.42 SGP per/round at the US Open;
- +1.22 SGP per/round at the Memorial; and
- +1.14 SGP per/round at the Charles Schwab.
It all lines up – accurate OTT with good long iron play and a hot putter. That’s a yes from me dawg.
Pick: JJ Spaun Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 8 Places (+6600) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total) Bet365
My last Outright is a longshot play – and there are some reasons for that. JJ has 4 missed cuts over his last 10 showings, with his highest finish in that time being T10 at the Rocket Mortgage (in an equally shitty field to the 3M). His OTT accuracy isn’t amazing, he doesn’t pick up an absurd amount of distance OTT, and his putting is subpar.
With all that considered: Spaun is another guy with a track record of good OTT accuracy at the 3M (his last 2 showings at the 3M have produced double-digit fairway percentage gained on the field). He can also putt quite well on these greens, gaining strokes putting per/round in each of his previous four showings at this event.
The only place he really lost ground in his 4 previous showing at the 3M Open was with his approach game. The funny thing is – his approach play is the bread & butter of his game. JJ hasn’t lost strokes to the field on approach in his last 10 events (save for a minor -0.05 SGAPR week at the Rocket Mortgage, which was surprisingly his best recent finish). While he’s right around Tour average with approach play 150 to 200 yards, he’s in the top 2% (!!!!!!) of Tour players when it comes to SGAPR per shot from +200 yards (in 2024). With JJ’s minimal distance OTT compared to Tour average – he’s likely to hit a lot more +200 yard approach shots.
I’m not saying this one will be easy – but it will sure be fun if he gets on the first page of that leaderboard come Sunday.
(whole lotta fun meme)
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with UFC and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
2024 3M Open Outright Each-Way Bets
Pick: Akshay Bhatia Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 8 Places (+1800) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total) Bet365
Pick: Luke Clanton Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 8 Places (+2500) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total) Bet365
Pick: Keith Mitchell Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 8 Places (+2800) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total) Bet365
Pick: Keegan Bradley Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 8 Places (+2800) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total) Bet365
Pick: JJ Spaun Outright Each-Way* ⅕ 8 Places (+6600) 0.125u E/W (0.25u total) Bet365