We’re finally here folks: the last Major Championship of the season. Nothing gets me going like the prospect of a links-style course testing each and every player in a different way – at least when compared to most setups for Tour events in America. The Genesis Scottish Open gave us a little taste this last week, but the weather and conditions were much too easy for the majority of that Tournament. We wanted the 30 MPH gusts coming off the water (well, at least I did). Regardless, we made a small profit at the Renaissance Club, racking up a Brian Harman Top 30, Thomas Detry Top 40, and Nicolai Hojgaard Top 40. Here are the plays for last week if you want a further recap:
But now, we focus on The Open Championship. This year, we grace the grounds of Royal Troon in Scotland for a very interesting test (that should ultimately deliver for the viewers). Before getting into the guys we ride with this week – let’s breakdown the course to see the type of game that wins here.
The Course – Royal Troon (Scotland):
This Course is a little bit of a mystery, as there isn’t one specific type of game that wins here. Guys can be very long Off-the-Tee, or they can be very accurate Off-the-Tee (OTT) – but they have to be one or the other. If they spray it OTT and don’t hit it very long – they will run into trouble with bunkers all over this course and narrow fairways.
One thing is an absolute surety – the Approach game needs to be dialled. If the wind does go low, the guys will need to take advantage by sticking it close. Specifically from 150+ yards out for the shorter hitters. But it is starting to look like it will be quite windy based on recent weather reports out of Troon – and that’s where the scrambling and touch around the greens has to be supreme. Approach shots are going to miss the green, no matter how good these guys hit it, as long as the wind is up. Putting isn’t necessarily a dealbreaker here, as guys can get hot even if they aren’t great putters (look at the Outright Winner in 2016 on this Course, Henrik Stenson, for proof of that). Regardless, a good putter never hurts, and it can get these guys out of trouble if proximity is a problem with the gusts coming off the water.
In reality, the key players we’re looking for are going to be the guys that have: (i) good form at Open Championships, (ii) good form in recent events, (iii) gain strokes OTT (whether through accuracy or distance), (iv) great approach play, and (v) decent scrambling. That’s a lot to ask for – but I’ve identified 5 guys who fit the bill. So without further ado, let’s shoot our shot.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from DataGolf.com
2024 Open Championship Placement Bets (Including Ties)
Pick: Tony Finau Top 20 +170 (0.35u) and Top 10 +375 (0.15u) Bet365
Big Tony has been an absolute staple on my betting cards when he’s played lately – and my-oh-my has he been a cash cow.
Let’s start with the recent form. Tony has 3 Top 10’s in his last 3 events, with a T5th at the Travelers, a T3rd at the US Open, and a T8th at Memorial. Out of his last 7 events played, he’s only finished outside the Top 20 one time. And these aren’t baby-boy events – they are all Signature Events or Majors with the best fields in the world.
While one might think Tony’s “American” game of distance OTT and spiking approach shots doesn’t play at Open Championships – that would only be true last year, where he missed the cut. He was also playing quite poorly at that time – so maybe it’s best to take a look at his Open Championship history before that terrible finish. Well, it doesn’t disappoint:
- 2022 Open Championship: T28th finish
- 2021 Open Championship: T15th finish
- 2019 Open Championship: Solo 3rd finish
- 2018 Open Championship: T9th finish
- 2017 Open Championship: T27th finish
- 2016 Open Championship (also at Royal Troon): T18th finish
That’s gross. He hadn’t finished outside the Top 30 in six straight years at the Open Championship prior to 2023, including a Top 20 at this same course in 2016. I love that shit.
On top of it all, his game is just a nice fit for the course. Out of his last 25 starts, he’s gained distance OTT in 24 of them. Out of his last 25 starts, he’s gained strokes on Approach in 21 of them, with some absurd strokes-gained-approach per/round in Tourneys like the US Open (+1.93 strokes gained per/rd) and the PGA Championship (+2.40 strokes gained per/rd) – and it’s not lost on me those are both Majors.
Tony might not have the most pristine around-the-green and putting resume – but he’s been decent lately. He hasn’t lost strokes around-the-green in 6 straight Tournaments, and his putting was over +0.5 strokes-gained per/round in each of his last 3 starts.
This all adds up to an easy smash spot here – the trick is, an Outright with Tony is like feeding your money into a broken vending machine. Until he gets the big one (just any old Major Championship would do), we’re sticking with the Top 10 and Top 20 markets.
Pick: Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 -105 (0.5u) Bet365
Oh Tommy boy. This guy may be overbet in an event like this – but the number still makes sense when you consider his form and history. Plus, the guy has the best hair on tour, so he deserves at least a couple extra looks from the public in his home continent of Europe.
Tommy has been the model of consistency as of late. Out of 17 events played in 2024, Tommy has:
- 14 Top 40’s;
- 11 Top 30’s;
- 9 Top 20’s; and
- 4 Top 10’s
Yeah, that’s pretty fucking good. But the Open Championship history of this feathered hair Englishman is what really locks this one in. In his last 5 Open Championship starts, he was in the Top 15 4 times. Tommy LOVES Open Championships, where the links-style just plays much better for his game.
And that’s no surprise. Tommy is not a long hitter by any stretch of the imagination – but he is one of the most accurate on Tour OTT. Out of his last 24 starts, he’s gained driving accuracy on the field in 22 of them. The approach play has been pretty stellar as of late, gaining strokes-on-approach on the field in each of his last 5 events. Again, the putting and ARG game isn’t stellar for Tommy, but he has been above average: positive around-the-green strokes-gained in 19 of 24 recent starts, as well as positive putting strokes-gained in 16 of 24 of recent starts.
All in all – Tommy just loves to play this Tournament, and his form + game has been ideal for some good finishes. Put the Scottish Open T34th finish in the rearview – the Open is a whole different beast for Tommy.
Pick: Tyrell Hatton Top 20 +100 (0.5u) Bet365
The Mad-Hatton is much like Tommy when it comes to Open Championships – he loves the setups and styles. I expect him to drop at least 10 F-bombs this weekend with his propensity for angry outbursts – but I honestly love that shit, so let’s take a fired-up Hatton for a Top 20.
This is the only LIV guy I’m taking this week – and you’ll notice I won’t have the same kind of statistical support for Hatton due to the lack of accessible LIV stats and just overall poor shot-tracking on their part.
The thing is – you don’t need much to show Hatton is a play here. Recent form lines up: He had an Outright win at the end of June at LIV Nashville, and he was solo 3rd last week at LIV Andalucia (I know it’s LIV, but that’s still pretty damn good). He’s also had a Top 30 and a Top 10 in 2 of 3 Majors this year – and neither of those courses are on his home continent of Europe where he grew up playing.
So when you look at how he plays in his home continent, how does it look? Not too shabby:
- T20th in 2023 Open Championship
- T11th in 2022 Open Championship
- Cut in 2021 Open Championship
- T6th in 2019 Open Championship
Tyrell has been in the Top 20 in 3 of the last 4 Open Championships, he’s got a notoriously good approach game, and he’s gained strokes on the field around-the-green and putting in the 2023 and 2022 editions of the Open Championship.
Give me some Hatton on European grounds.
Pick: Corey Conners Top 30 +130 (0.35u) and Top 20 +225 (0.15u) Bet365
I had to pick at least one Canadian in this field, so let’s go with the ball-striking maestro Corey to pull this one through.
Another guy that has just been on a tear lately. The man hasn’t missed a cut in his last 25 starts. Out of his last 8 events, he’s finished in the Top 20 six times, with three Top 10’s. That includes a Top 10 at another Major Championship in the US Open, which goes along well with the T26th at the PGA Championship. Form = locked in.
Corey has only played in 4 Open Championships – but he does have a Top 20 (2021) and Top 30 (2022) in those 4 starts. He may not have the sterling past Open Championship record of some other guys included here – but he has shown an ability to jump onto the 2nd page of the leaderboard (even at a time where his game wasn’t as good as it is now – as he’s playing the best golf of his career now).
I called him the ball-striking maestro for a reason: the approach play is absolutely filthy for C-squared. It’s much easier to show with a screengrab of his strokes-gained-approach on DataGolf.com, so why don’t you take a look for yourself:
That’s a whole lot of green from approach – and some of those strokes-gained numbers are absurd. As you’ll also see in that screengrab – Corey is also a very good driver of the golf ball (in terms of both distance and driving accuracy).
The odds here only make sense if you believe Corey is going to shit his pants around-the-green. And it’s definitely possible – that’s the weakness in his game without a doubt. Regardless, the last two times CC has played in the Open Championship, he’s gained strokes around-the-green and putting on the field. It’s possible his ARG and putting style work better at a links-style setup – and if he puts it all together, don’t be surprised to see him on the 1st page of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Pick: Brian Harman Top 30 +130 (0.5u) Bet365
That’s right, we’re taking the past Open Champion again this week after cashing his Top 30 at the Scottish Open last week.
This man does not have driving distance – but he has some of the best driving accuracy on Tour, which will fit these narrow fairways perfectly. Not only that, but the Harmonizer’s approach play has taken a huge step forward, where in his last 7 Tourneys, he’s averaging about +1 strokes-gained-approach per/round (with a pretty absurd +1.68 SGA per/round at the Scottish Open last week).
His ARG game is solid, but for such a lights-out-putter – that aspect of his game has been so-so as of late. Regardless, he still has 14 Top 30’s in his last 25 starts, with 6 of the Top 30’s coming in his 8 most recent starts. Further, his putting shouldn’t be an issue on these Open Championship greens based on past performances:
- +3.00 strokes-gained-putting per/round (fucking absurd) when he won the 2023 Open Championship
- +2.23 strokes-gained-putting per/round (also fucking absurd) when he finished 6th in the 2022 Open Championship
I think Brian will figure this shit out – and no better place to do it than at the Major Championship he won last year.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with UFC and PGA bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
2024 Open Championship Placement Bets (Including Ties)
Pick: Tony Finau Top 20 +170 (0.35u) and Top 10 +375 (0.15u) Bet365
Pick: Tommy Fleetwood Top 20 -105 (0.5u) Bet365
Pick: Tyrell Hatton Top 20 +100 (0.5u) Bet365
Pick: Corey Conners Top 30 +130 (0.35u) and Top 20 +225 (0.15u) Bet365
Pick: Brian Harman Top 30 +130 (0.5u) Bet365