We’re back people! The big PPV gives us a chance to make some good coin, and we can’t pass up that opportunity. We’re seeing the board a lot like we did for UFC 302, and we all saw how that went:
Today, we’re keeping it short and sweet. Bullet point write-ups for each of the picks – with five fights covered, we have the analysis to build your card. Without further ado, let’s ring that bell and get things started.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
UFC 303 Best Bets:
Pick: Pereira by KO (-110) 0.5u
- What’s changed from the first fight? Spirits and evil voo-doo? (love that from Jiri btw, had me laughing out loud)
- Jiri is still the reckless shit-eating wildman that we all know and love. He’s still going to come forward, lower his hands, leave his front leg susceptible …. you just can’t do that with a striker like Poatan.
- Speaking of leg kicks – Jiri got his leg destroyed last time out, and it’s because of his preference for an orthodox stance. When he switches stances, it’s effective – the problem is that anytime he has his left foot forward, he’s going to take a baseball bat to the calf.
- The power with Poatan (just ballooned back up to 230 lbs after weighing in at 204.5, and said it was his easiest cut yet) can shut this thing down quickly. Jiri may bide his time for the first round, but after that, he’ll leave openings.
- Unless Jiri exclusively wrestles and minds his p’s and q’s the whole fight (he has never done this in his career), it’s a stoppage. Live by the sword, die by it too.
Pick: Ortega Moneyline (+125) 1u
- T-City is the best dog on the card IMO. Did you see him dispose of a top guy like Yair Rodriguez (someone Max Hollaway went to decision with), after twisting his ankle while Bruce was announcing his name, following a 20 month layoff? The stones on this guy.
- Lopes is everyone’s darling – with a 3 fight first-round winning streak, against chinny guys (Yussuf) or guys without jiu-jitsu (Gavin Tucker). I get that he’s been dominant – but what the fuck are we doing here? T-City is miles ahead of any guy Lopes has faced to this point, and he’s definitely not chinny or lacking grappling technique.
- I think Brian’s going to be able to take this fight wherever he wants. Based on the Zombie fight – he can easily outstrike the rudimentary striker in Lopes. Based on the Yair fight – if this gets to the ground, there’s no way Ortega is losing those exchanges.
- You see this all the time – hot prospect overvalued by the books without top-competition wins (think Joe Pyfer as a -200 or more favourite against Jack Hermansson – and the wily vet with top-level experience wins). Don’t be on the wrong side of this one. The only way I can see Brian losing is an injury – which has happened before. Nonetheless, if that’s the only avenue for Lopes, we’ll be fine.
Pick: Garry Moneyline + Over 1.5 Rounds (+110) 0.5u
- BBL Garry is the pick – as much as I may hate saying it. This is a clear set up by the UFC to build Garry’s name off an old man. Credit to MVP for that win against Holland – this is a different animal.
- Honestly – Holland wrestles and controls position more in that last fight against MVP – he wins. I know Kev likes to put on a show, but he played right into MVP’s hand with the way he fought (especially with the lack of leg kicks).
- Garry does not care about the show. If he implements the same game plan he has against Neil Magny – destroy the leg and grapple – this is an easy dub. And if he does take the easiest path to victory, there’s no way he gets a finish against a guy with only one finish loss in his career.
Pick: Pyfer by KO (+187) 0.25u
- Barriault just ain’t it. The guy is tough, and stays in fights, but his striking and grappling are low-level. The gas tank and durability is admirable – but the durability could be going a bit south with the Chidi KO he just ate.
- Meanwhile – Pyfer has much better striking. He’s stronger, he’s bigger, and the power is all his. He also just got embarrassed by his gas tank in the Hermansson fight – so there’s one of two ways this can go.
- Pyfer is either: (i) more measured, lets the fight come to him, and looks for a late KO after conserving his gas tank, or (ii) he knows he doesn’t have the gas tank, so he comes in with his hair on fire, looking for the final blow early. Either way, it’s gonna be tough for Pyfer not to find the knockout here (out of his 12 wins, 8 are KO’s, and Marc-Andre only has 1 Submission loss on his resume).
Pick: Swanson Moneyline (+187) 0.25u
- Fili is so middling (21 UFC fights, ~.500 win percentage), he’s chinny (look at his most recent KO loss – then look at the other 5 before that), and the defence is sub par. He’s the younger guy here – but the miles on the tread are still excessive.
- Cub has slowed down. His durability isn’t as good as it once was. He may not have the volume he did as a youngun. You know what Cub does still have? Power and experience fighting the best guys in the world. Cub was a perennial Top 10 guy for an extended period, and Fili has never strung together a win streak over 3 fights. That’s the edge here – and we’re getting it on an underdog.
- This is a 50-50 fight in my mind – with Fili’s volume and speed showing through, and Cub’s power and mindset holding him off. The thing is – we’ve seen how judges score fights recently, and volume isn’t going to get it done. If Cub can steal the moments within the rounds with his power – the decision goes to him. Or he could just knock Andre out – either works at plus money baby.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with PGA and NFL Futures bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
UFC 303 Best Bets:
Pick: Pereira by KO (-110) 0.5u
Pick: Ortega Moneyline (+125) 1u
Pick: Garry Moneyline + Over 1.5 Rounds (+110) 0.5u
Pick: Pyfer by KO (+187) 0.25u
Pick: Swanson Moneyline (+187) 0.25u