Alright ladies and gents – let’s get back on the board with the best of the rest on the PGA Tour this week. That’s right – we don’t have to contend with the Schefflers and the Schauffeles of the world and their +400 Outright price-tags. The Rocket Mortgage is for the PGA guys who grind it out, thriving under the easier playing conditions offered here (in Detroit) when compared to recent courses played (such as Pinehurst and Muirfield). It makes sense that the Top 20 (or more) golfers in the world aren’t attending this event. It’s not a Signature, there’s been a huge run of big tourney’s (including two Majors), and The Open is right around the corner. If guys can afford to miss this event – they will. Those who can’t – we bet on. And this is actually quite a bit more exciting for me and my betting strategy.
This week, we can take some outrights at +2000 or higher – and they actually have a really good shot at the dub (screw off Scotty). On top of that, as mentioned above, the playing conditions are very easy compared to the Tour standard. You’re going to see scores upwards of -20 when this thing wraps up – very similar to last week at the Travelers. This means more variance, where a lot of the bums we leave aside for Majors become viable plays (and we saw the variance at the Travelers, even with all of the best players in the world playing – Harman, Bhatia, Hoge, and Sungjae all ended in the Top 10). Before we get to the picks – lets run through the Course quickly to see what we’re trying to line-up statistically.
The Course: Detroit Golf Club
We’ll keep this one short and sweet – much like how this golf course plays. Out of any course on Tour, guys hit it furthest Off the Tee on this course (good run, lots of fairway space, etc). Average distance can still play because of that, and the fairways are forgiving with a 65% average fairway rate (high for the Tour). Distance off the tee matters some (look to Bryson’s 2020 win here), but it’s not the be-all-end-all.
No, the be-all-end-all in my mind comes down to two things: approaches from under 150 yards and putting. This is actually very similar to TPC River Highlands last week – which actually plays a lot shorter on the number (~6,800 yards vs ~7,300). While TPC is a shorter course, the increased average driving distance here makes the max approach shot for Par 4’s in that 150-175 range (likely even shorter for the longer guys).
Further, with the scoring being so inflated, making putts becomes all the more important. Guys that were Top 10 in putting here in the past almost always cashed at least a Top 20 cheque. The difference between this layout and TPC River Highlands last week is the four Par 5’s in Detroit (vs the two Par 5’s at TPC) – which means players’ ability to knab those elusive eagles could be the difference between a Top 40 and a Top 10. With all that considered – let’s jump on the plays.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
*All data from this article is found on DataGolf.com
Outright Each-Ways and Placements:
Pick: Aaron Rai Outright E/W* ⅕ 3 Places (+5000) 0.125u E/W (0.25u Total)
*If you are unfamiliar with Each-Way bets, all it really means is that we are placing two bets in one – one bet on Rai to win, and one on him to get in the top 3. If he wins outright, we get the full +5000 dollar payout, but if he only gets in the top 3, we are looking at a reduction of ⅕ to the payout. So $10 E/W ($20 total) on Rai at this line pays $620 if he wins, and $124 if he only comes in the top 3. Dead-heat rules also apply – check your gambling site for the rules on that.
Pick: Aaron Rai Top 10 (including ties) (+320) 0.25u
A disciple of Teddy Two-Gloves (iykyk) – we’re going to let the Rai dog eat in Detroit this weekend. Aaron isn’t a household name in the slightest – but I’ll be damned if he isn’t my favourite pick for a breakout win this week. And if not – the Top 10 market is mighty appealing as well. Let’s get to why.
Let’s start with his recent form. 5 straight Tournaments gaining strokes on the field Off the Tee, 5 straight Tournaments gaining strokes on the field on Approach, 4 straight Tournaments gaining strokes on the field Around-The-Green. Holy shit is his game on fire. The putting has never been his forte, but he putted well at the US Open (+0.75 strokes gained) and he recently pulled out a Top 5 at the CJ Cup (a Tournament with a similarly weak field to this) with very average putting (+0.25 strokes gained).
Now – the key to me – approach shots from 100-150 yards and 150-200 yards. Well – Aaron ranks top 30 on the Tour in both categories since the beginning of 2024 (one of few golfers to earn that distinction – Scotty is another). This is all well and good, but how has his game been put into practice here? Well he only has one previous appearance in this Tournament, but he crushed it with a Top 10.
He’s previously had a T4, a T7, and a T3 on the PGA Tour – yet the win remains elusive. Watch for this guy to own the leaderboard going into the weekend – then we can see if he finally closes one out.
Pick: Taylor Pendrith Outright E/W ⅕ 3 Places (+4000) 0.125u E/W (0.25u Total)
Pick: Taylor Pendrith Top 10 (including ties) (+280) 0.25u
Oh, Canada. Well, the Nation as a whole needs a good pick-me-up after the Oilers gave us all that hope just to make us cry after Game Seven. We sure know the Blue Jays aren’t going to deliver any happiness – so why not Pendrith.
We’re not just taking a look at this guy because of the limited field – he has some real game that’s been flourishing lately on the biggest stages. He’s a smoker Off the Tee, gaining distance on the field in every event he’s played (out of his last 25 starts). He may be middling with the approach game (he’s basically Tour average from 150 yards in), but the putting is absolutely lights-out. Out of the last 15 Tournaments where strokes-gained-putting (SGP) was tracked, he has been better than the field 13 times. There are some heavy numbers there too, like +1.10 SGP at the US Open and +1.47 SGP at the RBC. That’s what we’re looking for on a scorers’ course baby.
The recent results, in tough tournaments with much harder fields, have been more than encouraging. T23 at the Travelers, Top 20 at the US Open, T33 at the Memorial, T21 at the RBC. He’s just lurking round the first page of the leaderboard – and those results are on hard courses that limit Pendrith’s upside (unlike Detroit Golf Club with its easier conditions). You know what setup and field is very comparable to the Rocket Mortgage? The CJ Cup, which took place 1 ½ months ago. How’d he do? Oh, just a casual Outright Win.
In addition to all that, he has two previous appearances in this Tournament (2022 and 2023) – placed T14 last year, and was the Runner-Up the year before, narrowly missing the solo 2nd. I don’t know what else needs to be said.
Pick: Rickie Fowler Outright E/W ⅕ 12 Places (+5000) 0.125u E/W (0.25u Total)
Full disclosure – you’re right in thinking it’s rare to have a repeat champion (Ricky won this baby last year). Nonetheless, it has been done – and at a higher standard, by worse golfers than the Rickster. You had Steve Stricker win the John Deere three years in a row (2009 to 2011), Tom Watson win the Byron Nelson three consecutive times in the 80’s, and Stu Appleby with the Mercedes Championship three-peat in the early 2000’s. Unlikely? Yes. Impossible in this watered-down field? Absolutely not.
We have all been witness to the downfall of Fowler over the past little while. The guy was a perennial Top 5 contender in every tournament for a while there, wearing the most outrageous colours while hitting equally outrageous shots rocking the Puma flat-brim. Loved this guy. But I’ll tell you what – after watching his form at the Travelers this last week (finished Top 20) – I think he’s found something.
When we’re looking at green-comps for Detroit Golf Club, a course that comes up is TPC River Highlands. And Ricky putted like his hair was on fire last week, gaining a substantial +1.73 SGP on the field (his highest putting strokes-gained total in at least two years). On top of that, his approach play (which has actually been adequate and above Tour average for 150-200 yards shots since 2024 began) was solid – and if you look at his past 13 Tournaments (excluding an outlier BAD approach performance at the Memorial), he has a net +2.57 strokes-gained approach. It’s been alright guys!!! He’s solid off the tee too – gaining distance on the field more times than he doesn’t.
His performances at the Rocket Mortgage excluding the Outright Win last year are none too inspiring (T32 in ‘21 and T12 in ‘20 ain’t bad I guess). But the whole reason you have this price is because of the struggles he’s been experiencing. I’ll take the chance that he can dial in his game for this one with a possible mental edge due to the lack of other high-end hitters – and a Top 12 cushion really gives us a shot to cash with Fowler.
Pick: Chris Kirk Top 20 (including ties) (+280) 0.25u
Christopher Kirk – let’s get some shit poppin this week. This guy is always a contender on this course, and it’s really not hard to see why. 2023 Mortgage Classic, he’s Top 20. 2022 Mortgage Classic? That’s right, Top 20. Not the 2021 Mortgage Classic too? Actually his best finish at T12.
His approach game is just so good here. Over +0.57 SGA in each of his last three appearances is amazing consistency. Definitely a shorter-hitter compared to Tour average (remember, that doesn’t matter as much here), and the putting is hit-or-miss (with a Top 20 price at +280, it would have to be). Nonetheless, we’re believing in the Course history significantly here, and with a T10 at the Heritage, a T16 at the Master, a win at the Sentry this year (which included Scotty in the field) – it isn’t hard to see him place high.
Oh, and let’s not forget this guy is ahead of the average on Tour when it comes to strokes-gained-approach from 100-150 yards, and he crushes the field from under 100 yards. Can’t go wrong with this big upside play (honestly, looks a lot like Hank from PMT & Barstool as well – and he just had the week of his life).
Pick: Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 (including ties) (+333) 0.25u
This ones definitely a long-shot, but not as much as you might think with the price tag. I scoured the bottom of this market – and my boy Thorbjorn is the best value in my eyes. Why, you may ask?
He’s really only been on the PGA Tour full-time for 10 events – yet in his last 5 events, he’s gained a substantial amount of strokes putting vs the field. He’s tearing the greens up, and he’s definitely easing his way into the PGA after a rough start (T27 and T16 in his two most recent non-Major tournaments vs ¾ missed cuts to start with).
Beyond that, he has massive distance (+7.8, +9.8, and +11.0 yards gained on the field Off the Tee in his last three events), and he’s right around Tour average with approach shots from 100-150 yards. This stud has a Top 20 at Valero (in a stacked field), and won on the European Tour earlier in the year.
At this price, with his recent form, I’ll take a great putter, with decent approach play, and plenty of driving distance.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Outright Each-Ways and Placements:
Pick: Aaron Rai Outright E/W ⅕ 3 Places (+5000) 0.125u E/W (0.25u Total)
Pick: Aaron Rai Top 10 (including ties) (+320) 0.25u
Pick: Taylor Pendrith Outright E/W ⅕ 3 Places (+4000) 0.125u E/W (0.25u Total)
Pick: Taylor Pendrith Top 10 (including ties) (+280) 0.25u
Pick: Rickie Fowler Outright E/W ⅕ 12 Places (+5000) 0.125u E/W (0.25u Total)
Pick: Chris Kirk Top 20 (including ties) (+280) 0.25u
Pick: Thorbjorn Olesen Top 20 (including ties) (+333) 0.25u