After a stellar U.S Open wrapped up on Sunday, we are back with some big-time PGA golf bets for the Travelers Championship. This tourney has been elevated to “Signature Event” status the past few years, meaning the prize pool is bigger, there are only 69 people in the field, all the best players (on the PGA Tour) will be playing, and everyone will make it to the weekend with no cut. Last weekend was another winning weekend for us, with the Top 10 Schauffele (1.5u) and Top 20 Aberg (1.5u) cashing. We missed a few close ones, including Matsuyama E/W Top 5 (finished solo 6th) and Morikawa Top 10 (finished T14). Nonetheless, we have now published our picks for 4 PGA Tournaments, and if you’re sticking with my unit scale, you should be up 2.1u ($210 profit if your units are $100).
With that in mind, let’s keep stacking the bankroll this weekend, with a very gettable course, prime for the taking. Before getting into the picks, let’s get deeper into this Pete Dye design to see what we should be targeting.
The Course – TPC River Highlands:
After a very challenging test at Pinehurst No. 2 last week, the players get a break with a 6,800 yard, Par 70, shorty. The course variance here is astounding, where one style is not necessarily the be-all-end-all of winning this thing. Scores should be low (I’m guessing the winner comes in around -20), and it will be an all-out birdie-fest, unfortunate for players like Pavon that enjoy difficult tests.
First off, the fairways are easier to hit than Tour-average (rough is tough on the PGA scale, 11th highest “rough penalty %” on Tour) and the course is short – meaning driving accuracy, not distance, will be most important (similar to Pinehurst No.2). From there – it’s a straight-up wedge game. Whoever hits their wedge-approach shots best will likely win the tournament. Unlike a few of the courses these guys played previously, TPC River puts pressure on players to dial it in with the short-sticks, mostly from around 150 yards. This also means that around-the-green (ARG) play won’t be nearly as essential as last week, as the approach shots will be much easier and the greens much softer, making for less run-offs and chips.
That being said – along with approach-play from around 150 yards – putting is the deal-breaker here. If you aren’t putting well, you just don’t have a shot. The putts may not be too long (10-20 feet), but the conversion rates must be high from this distance, or a player will be at risk of losing the leaderboard. The greens are also quite quick (as is evidenced from the last year this Tournament was played, and the switch to different grass on the greens recently).
So, all-in-all, we are going to be looking for players who: (i) drive the ball down the fairway at a high-rate, (ii) have deadly approach games, specifically from 150 yards and in, and (iii) make putts from under 20 feet on fast greens. This doesn’t narrow the field down as much as it did in the U.S Open, but it definitely gives us a good starting point. Without further ado, let’s get to it.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Placements (Including Ties):
Pick: Ludvig Aberg Top 10 (+120) 2u
If you tailed last week, you know that Ludvig was a stellar pick for Pinehurst No.2. Well, surprise – he’s also an amazing play at TPC River Highlands, with his form being top-notch recently, and excellent statistics in the make-or-break areas.
Form: The guy pumps out results like he’s working as a gas-station attendant. He missed the cut at the PGA Championship (minor knee injury could’ve played into that), but here are all 9 of his other finishes over his last 10:
- T12 at U.S Open, T5 at Memorial, T10 at Heritage, 2nd at Masters, T14 at Valero, 8th at Players, T25 at Arnold, T19 at Genesis, and 2nd at Pebble
‘Nuff said.
Game: Driving accuracy is on point (8 out of last 10 tourneys with positive fairway-percent vs the field). Approach game is just sick (strokes-gained-approach on the field in 17 of his last 18 tourneys). Putting, especially on fast surfaces, is unreal (last week, lightning fast surfaces, +1.19 strokes-gained-putting on the field – and strokes-gained-putting on the field in 11 of his last 14 tourneys).
If Scotty wasn’t prime for a bounce-back here, I’d be on Ludvig with an Outright. As it stands, I’ll take the plus-money on a Top 10 with ties.
Pick: Tony Finau Top 20 (-125) 1u
Tony Bets has been absolute cash recently – and it seems like everyone wants to fade him because of his notorious choke-tendencies once he gets near the top of the leaderboard. And that’s fine – because we don’t need him to win here. The question mark will always be the putter when it comes to Tony – but recent form shows this may be an overblown concern.
Form: Last 5 events (including 2 Majors), he has a top 20 in 4/5. Extend that to his last 15 Tournaments, and you have 9 Top 20’s in that span. You can also take a look at his finishes at two of the comparable courses to TPC River Highlands, Riviera and TPC Scottsdale. His two last appearances at Riv – finished Top 20. His last time out at TPC Scottsdale? Also a Top 20. It all lines up.
Game: Tony’s driving accuracy is right around Tour-average, but the distance is game breaking. While that’s not necessary on this Course, it can still help, as Tony’s approach game from under 100 yards is stellar (Top 20 on Tour in strokes-gained from this distance). Overall, the approach game is nasty, where he’s gained strokes-approach on the field in 18 of his last 20 tourneys.
The putting has always been a weakness for Tony – but he killed it on those lightning-fast Pinehurst greens last weekend (+0.56 strokes-gained), and he has recent Top 20’s in two Tournaments where he lost strokes to the field putting (T17 at Memorial and T18 at PGA Championship). He putts even average – the Top 20 is a lock. Ride with Tony.
Pick: Russell Henley Top 20 (-120) 1u
Oh Henley, what am I going to do with you? There’s just too much going right with Russ’ game at this point for this course. His form has been good, and his history with this course is something to behold – what’s not to love?
Form: His last five results are: T7 U.S Open, T27 Memorial, T23 PGA Championship, T10 Wells Fargo, and T12 RBC Heritage. Those are all very solid results, no doubt. But the juicy stat is this: 4 Top 20’s in 6 appearances at the Travellers. He plays TPC River well, and finished Top 5 at Valero a couple months ago (TPC San Antonio, the Valero course, also has some carryover to TPC River Highlands).
Game: Probably the most accurate driver of the ball on Tour, as he has gained double-digit fairway percentage on the field in 4 of his last 5, and gained fairway percentage in all but one of his last 25 tourneys. Approach game has been rock-solid too, gaining strokes on the field in 7 straight events. If you look a little deeper though – the approach game is even better than usual for this TPC River Highland course. Sure, Henley is decent on approach from 150 yards+ (actually loses a fraction of a stroke compared to the PGA average), but from under 150 yards, he’s Top 10 on the Tour with his approach-play. Honestly, it’s basically him and Scotty at the top of the list for this stat in terms of recognizable golfers. Oh, and don’t forget his putting, where he’s gained strokes on the field in 9 of his last 10 tourneys. No brainer here – smoke it.
Pick: Corey Conners Top 20 (-120) 1u
Last but not least, we have the Canadian sniper, C-squared. I didn’t know the heater this guy was on until I took a look at datagolf – and let me tell you, he’s crushing right now.
Form: Top 20 in 7 of his last 10 Tourneys, there’s definitely some impressive results in there. Top 10 in the U.S Open this last week, going along with a Top 10 at the RBC, is nothing to slouch at. He finished Top 10 in the Travellers last year, and played the comparable courses well this year (Top 30’s at Riv and TPC Scottsdale).
Game: Accuracy off the tee is always pretty deadly with Corey, where he had +12% and +13% of fairways hit compared to the field in his last two events, and regularly gains fairway accuracy on the field. His approach game – straight dumb. I have to include a screenshot here because of how absurd it is:
That’s not a mistake folks – he always crushes the field on approach, no matter the course or design set-up (look to the column with APP at the top). Again, much like Finau above, the difference will be how well Conners putts. He, like Tony, only needs to be average with the putter to place well (Top 20’s at Wells Fargo and Memorial with pretty bad putting and strokes-lost vs the field). Nonetheless, Corey killed the lightning-fast greens at Pinehurst (+0.88 strokes-gained-putting), and he has definitely limited his disaster-putting instances lately.
On top of it all, Corey just got that Canada Olympic spot locked up, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s some renewed confidence that seeps through into his game. Regardless, we got one Maple Leaf on the board this week.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Placements (Including Ties):
Pick: Ludvig Aberg Top 10 (+120) 2u
Pick: Tony Finau Top 20 (-125) 1u
Pick: Russell Henley Top 20 (-120) 1u
Pick: Corey Conners Top 20 (-120) 1u