Here. We. Go. The Third Major Championship on the calendar brings us to North Carolina at Pinehurst No. 2 Golf Course. As it is with all U.S Open’s (but especially those played at Pinehurst No. 2), the scoring is going to be incredibly low (close to par), where the winner may end up anywhere from -1 to -4. These are my favourite type of Tournaments to watch as a fan, as you actually get to see some creativity from these guys, and the short-game mastery will be on full display with the few players that can pull it off. This Tournament has the stingiest cut-line out of any Tournament these guys play on Tour, as we have a field of 156 players, and only the Top 60 and ties make the cut (no 10 stroke rule).
Last week was another close one, as we had our biggest bet, Morikawa To Win E/W Top 5, cash the Top 5, but miss on the big money (falling by one stroke to the Scheff God). Before that, we had Bryson at the PGA with a Win E/W Top 5 (also finished Top 5, but fell by one stroke to Schaufelle). We are getting very close ladies and gents – and we haven’t had a Tournament yet with lost money (out of 3 Tournaments wagered on).
Before we move on to the picks, let’s take a closer look at Pinehurst No. 2 to get a better idea of what we’re looking at.
The Course: Pinehurst No. 2
As I laid out above; this is a very tough course. There will be a ton of bogeys out there with the par 70, almost 7,600-yard layout. This course is unique in the fact that there really isn’t any rough if you miss the fairway. The fairways are wide, and on either side of the fairways, you’re looking at a combination of wire grass, waste areas, barren areas, sand traps – that sort of thing. No four-inch rough to contend with, but you do want to be hitting the fairways, as this type of setup can be quite penal if you’re missing often. That means that off-the-tee, we aren’t looking only at the best drivers of the golf ball (Bryson or Rory). You can easily still perform well in this Tournament if either your distance, or your accuracy, is on the low-end of things – it just can’t be both.
When we’re looking at the approach-game necessary to succeed on this course – it should be quite evident by the length that approach shots from 175 yards+ will be the difference-maker. This will be the distance range for the majority of approach shots on this course, and with the turtleback greens Pinehurst No. 2 is known for (mounds and humps aplenty on the putting surface), the landing spots will be small. Proximity with these approaches is paramount to having a successful round.
Nevertheless, I’m seeing the most important aspect of this course as the short-game/putting combination. The last time we saw the U.S. Open on this course, it was guys that possessed great short-games/putting (well, and Martin Kaymer) that populated the top of the leaderboard. When a course plays as tough as this one does, with the aforementioned green complexes, there will be a ton of missed GIRs (greens-in-regulation). And unlike Muirfield Village last week at the Memorial – there will not be thick rough to stop balls that miss the green, and the chips will be from tight lies with lightning-fast, elevated greens. This makes for some opportunities to level the playing field (for instance, if a guy has great putting off-the-green as Kaymer did in 2014, a bad chipping game can be hidden). Nonetheless, we’re not going to be able to predict those outliers – so the safest bet is to make sure that your picks can survive short-game-wise around the toughest conditions the players see all year. If not – get ready for the bogey-train to chug-a-lug along frequently.
All in all, it’s: (i) good driving distance and/or accuracy, (ii) good approach play and proximity from 175+ yards out, (iii) great around-the-green play and chipping game, and (iv) decent-to-good putter.
As you’ll see below – the picks fit this bill to a tee, and the recent form hasn’t been too shabby for (most of) them either. I’m going to be doing things a little different this week. Instead of our heavy-bets going to Each-Way Outrights, we’re going with the big money on the Placements. I feel a lot better about it this week with the ability for the top guys’ consistency and high-level-skill to win-out on tough conditions. And I’m not riding Scotty – so what real point is there in putting heavy action on a winner. Instead, our Outright E/W’s this week will be bigger longshots – which allows us to lay limited action, while still having some good upside with forgotten past Major Champions. So without further ado, let’s roll dimpleheads.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Placement Picks (Including Ties):
Pick: Collin Morikawa Top 10 (+145) 1.5u
That’s right folks – we’re letting the big dog eat with a splash on Collin’s Top 10 market. And it should be no surprise after we cashed him in an E/W Top 5 last week. If you didn’t get to reading the synopsis on his game in my last article – this one will be largely the same. Collin Morikawa – so hot right now.
Three Top 5’s in a row, including a 4th place in the last Major Championship at Valhalla, and a Runner-Up finish last week at an elevated event at the Memorial. It’s been all about the accuracy off-the-tee lately with Collin. He isn’t a long hitter, but it’s been 6 straight tournaments where he was at least 10% better than the field in driving accuracy. That’s what we’re looking for, baby.
Then comes the approach play. Historically one of the best on Tour, he was dogshit to start this year with every iron in his bag. Dumb-dumb switched swing coaches. Then, he switches back to his old coach in Sessinghaus. Here’s how he’s now playing on approach: +1.62 strokes-gained-approach (SGA) at the Memorial, +1.08 SGA at the Charles Schwab, +0.91 SGA at the PGA – he even gained-strokes approach at a Wells Fargo Tournament where he didn’t play well (by his standards). The approach game is fixed, and his long-iron play should not have anyone concerned after conquering a similar, long-approach-shot course in Valhalla.
Lastly – the around-the-green (ARG) game and putting. This has been the biggest switch-up with Collin’s game, leading to his more recent Top 5’s. His putting and ARG game used to be terrible (I’m talking bottom-third of the PGA-level bad). But this season, it looks unreal. While he doesn’t really have the juice to knock down multiple 40-foot-putts in a round – he is a consistent lag putter, with good speed and an uncanny ability to check-up chip-shots on tough greens. Out of his last six tournaments, he has only lost shots to the field once in ARG (-0.02, very minimal) and once in putting (-0.12, again, very minimal).
Morikawa fits the mould for this course perfectly – but Scotty does too. That’s why we’re taking this juicy Top 10 line and running with it.
Pick: Xander Schaufelle Top 10 (+120) 1.5u
Xander is such a chalky play …. but the chalk fits, trust me. If we just took his last 10 Tournaments and checked the Top 10 rate – is there really any doubt he’s over 50%? Well, there shouldn’t be – he’s been Top 10 7/10 times. His last 25 Tournaments? 14/25 times. The man is the definition of consistency – and his game is a lock for Pinehurst No. 2.
Xander is a masher, surprisingly gaining distance on the field in almost every event, while maintaining average driving accuracy. His approach play is consistently good, where he goes about every 1/5 Tournaments with strokes-lost to the field. Even then though, the rest of his game can pick him up (-0.07 SGA at the Memorial, still finishes T8).
The reason that his approach game can be off is, well, because every other part of his game is usually still on. Over +1.28 SG Putting in 3 of his last 4 Tournaments. Very important on Pinehurst No. 2. The ARG game? Elite, with strokes-gained on the field in 18 of his last 20 Tournaments. Quite frankly, that’s absurd.
There is also the popular course comp of TPC Sawgrass to this venue (both have the length, a lack of rough, same kind of greens, same kind of design) – and he finished T2 there this year. Is there more of a lock than Xander Top 10 right now?
Pick: Ludvig Aberg Top 20 (-105) 1.5u
I can’t bring myself around to Ludvig Top 10 – but a Top 20 is too good to pass up at even-money. This young gunner has all the juice needed to get himself in a Top 5 position here – the only thing holding me back is the inconsistency ARG. But never fret – there is a good course-specific counterpoint to the ARG play, one that works in his favour.
Starting with his form recently. The guy has been populating the Top 20 and he just can’t get enough. He did miss the cut at the PGA Championship (his game just seemed weirdly off that week), but here are all 9 of his other finishes over his last 10:
T5 at Memorial, T10 at Heritage, 2nd at Masters, T14 at Valero, 8th at Players, T25 at Arnold, T19 at Genesis, 2nd at Pebble, and T9 at Farmer’s
That is a straight ridiculous run – and they are still giving us the pick ’em’ line for a T20. You can make the point that the field becomes more competitive with the LIV guys coming over, but that didn’t seem to bother him in his Runner-Up finish at the Masters.
His game is also perfect for the Course. He mashes, and he’s accurate with his drives for the most part (+3% on the field at the Memorial for example). His irons, especially his long-irons, are exceptional, as he has an average of +0.872 SGA on the field over his last five showings.
His around-the-green game and putting is … inconsistent, but he doesn’t always need it to place well (lost strokes ARG at Masters, still got 2nd). Nevertheless, the course mentioned earlier, TPC Sawgrass, has the most similar around-the-green and green complexes to Pinehurst No. 2 out of any of the courses on Tour. His SG-ARG and SGPUTT in that event? Net positive at +0.5 SG. Particularly encouraging was his ARG play (+0.73 SG) – and the 8th place finish of course.
I’m not saying he’s a short-game wizard – but he can get it done, and he obviously plays the tough conditions well with the Augusta Runner-Up and Top 5 at Muirfield last week in tornado-like conditions. Rock with him.
Pick: Taylor Moore Top 40 (+180) 0.25u
In all honesty – I can’t blame you for fading this one. Taylor’s recent form has been BAD, with three missed-cuts in his last five showings. But there’s something about Major Championships that gets Mooresy going – with two Top 20’s this year. Pretty fucking wack considering he only has 6 Top 20’s in his last 25 Tournaments.
T12 at the PGA Championship. T20 at the Masters. A Top 40 finish at the most comparable course on the schedule (TPC Sawgrass). Great distance off the tee, average accuracy, and pretty filthy short-game/putting metrics when looked at season-long (among top 50 in SG-ARG). The approach play is …. well, it’s not good, to put it nicely.
That’s the thing about this course though – GIR’s help, but they aren’t the be-all-end-all. With Moore’s ability to get chip-shots close and hole putts, he could be gaining strokes on the field without hitting a majority of the greens. The cold-blooded nature of his game in Major’s makes him an interesting bet, and at this price, we’re going to ride until the Championship wheels fall off for this big-game hunter.
Outright Each-Ways:
Pick: Hideki Matsuyama Outright Each-Way* 5 Places (+4000) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total)
*If you are unfamiliar with Each-Way bets, all it really means is that we are placing two bets in one – one bet on Hideki to win, and one on him to get in the top 5. If he wins outright, we get the full +4000 dollar payout, but if he only gets in the top 5, we are looking at a reduction of ¼ to the payout. So $10 E/W ($20 total) on Hideki at this line pays $520 if he wins, and $130 if he only comes in the top 5. Dead-heat rules also apply – check your gambling site for the rules on that.
Hideki Matsuyama – the God of the U.S. Opens. I’m seeing this stat floating around everywhere: no player gains more strokes in one area, in one event, than Matsuyama on approach shots in U.S. Open’s. Pretty cool fact no doubt, but it’s his short-game magic that really has me believing a win is possible here.
The thing about my two Outrights this week is that they both have longshot odds, but if the Tournament becomes a chipping/putting contest (which this one certainly might given the necessity of ARG play), they have an advantage over Scheffler.
Some may forget about Hideki because he hasn’t been as prominent in recent Tournaments. He had to pull-out of a few (personal reasons or injury, not sure which), and the Major performances were anything but special (both outside the Top 30). But the Memorial finish last week gives me a lot of hope – the approach game was dialled, and the tough conditions didn’t phase him. Regardless of his faltering recent form – his strokes-gained ARG and PUTT combined haven’t been negative in 8 Tournaments. That aspect of his game is never really failing him. He’s been close in U.S. Open’s before too – with two Top 5 finishes since 2017.
The confidence level isn’t extreme with Hideki – but this is a clear “low-risk, high-reward” play. Hideki either crushes the approach shots and plays like a magician around the greens for a run at the trophy on Sunday afternoon, or he’ll flunk out as he did at the PGA Championship and the Masters. Regardless, he has some of the highest upside in the Tournament, so let’s take a chance at this price.
Pick: Cameron Smith Outright Each-Way 5 Places (+4500) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total)
Honestly, for my money, the best short-game/putting player in the World. I was damn disappointed when Cam went over to LIV – I thought I was going to have the privilege of watching his magic short-game every week for a long time. I guess I still could, but nah, LIV Tourneys reek like a diaper left unchanged.
Regardless, this could be a sneaky spot for Cam, just like it was at the 2022 Open Championship. That Tournament (which he won) was at St. Andrews – and wouldn’t you know it, that’s also a course with elevated, bumpy greens, no rough, and incredibly tough putting. As far as they are away from each other location-wise …. St. Andrews and Pinehurst No. 2 do draw similarities.
There’s also the fact that Camdaddy has performed well on a tough U.S. Open course before, despite his limited length off the tee. Any guesses why?
- 2023 U.S. Open – 4th Place, +2.02 strokes-gained putting
There it is – guy just has to get hot with the flat stick, and this one could be a runaway. There aren’t really any guys you can say that about at +4000 or better, except for the previously mentioned Hideki. Another low-risk, high-reward play – what do you have to lose.
Special Bonus Bets: Ride Tiger
Pick: Tiger to Make Cut (+225) 0.25u
Pick: Tiger Outright E/W Top 12 (+15000) 0.05u E/W (0.1u Total)
I know what you’re thinking, and no, I’m not talking about that riding (though there was plenty of that back-in-the-day). Nah, it’s just this simple with the Tiger bets – the body will be warm (weather is supposed to be sweltering for the Tourney in NC), the course isn’t very hard to walk (compared to a hilly course like Augusta, where the elevation changes constantly), and this is really his last shot.
I know, I know – “they say that at every Major”. Well, I don’t really care – I’ve seen this guy play golf early in the week, and he is still DIALLED. Not as good as he once was, maybe – but he still can definitely get things done on the golf course. Where does he start failing? When conditions get wet or cold, or at the end of the second round where he’s worn out from walking.
At Pinehurst, the body-fatigue should be held at bay (at least somewhat), and the heat will keep the joints in good shape. It’s really no more complex than that – we’ve all seen this guy play, and that’s not in question. One last ride with my boy Tiger – let’s get in there and compete baby.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Placement Picks (Including Ties):
Pick: Collin Morikawa Top 10 (+145) 1.5u
Pick: Xander Schaufelle Top 10 (+120) 1.5u
Pick: Ludvig Aberg Top 20 (-105) 1.5u
Pick: Taylor Moore Top 40 (+180) 0.25u
Outright Each-Ways:
Pick: Hideki Matsuyama Outright Each-Way 5 Places (+4000) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total)
Pick: Cameron Smith Outright Each-Way 5 Places (+4500) 0.1u E/W (0.2u Total)
Special Bonus Bets: Ride Tiger
Pick: Tiger to Make Cut (+225) 0.25u
Pick: Tiger Outright E/W Top 12 (+15000) 0.05u E/W (0.1u Total)