2024 PGA Memorial Tournament: Outrights and Placement Best Bets

Well my friends, with the NHL Playoffs slowing down, we have more time to push out informed bets for some of the other major sports. Probably my two favourite sports to bet besides Hockey (and Football once it finally makes its way around) are MMA and Golf. Golf is extremely engaging for four whole days, and the odds we can get on some of these swingers (not sexually, as far as I know) are absurd. And while we haven’t been as active on the PGA betting since I started this page two months ago, we do have a pretty decent record in Major Championships to this point, cashing a very close Each-Way Outright on Deschambeau at the PGA Championship most recently (still salty big boy Bryson couldn’t get to that Playoff).

PGA Record to Date (Masters and PGA Championship): +1.42u ($142 profit if following my betting units ($100))

We don’t overextend ourselves – but we love to play the board. So let’s get on to the course this week (Muirfield) in a Major-like event on the grounds Jack Nicklaus built.

The Course

Muirfield is pretty similar to Valhalla, which we just broke down in the PGA Championship betting article. It’s a very long course, with super-wide fairways – but surprisingly, you don’t have to be a long hitter to be successful here. The key is hitting fairways off the tee, as the rough is extremely penal – it ranks as one of the hardest courses on Tour when it comes to approach shots from the rough. And again – the approach shots are where you make your money here, and just like at Valhalla, it’s going to be those 175-200 yard approach shots that separate the field. Par 5’s are obviously very important with the length, and the greens are lightning fast – but even bad putters have been successful here if they get a feel for the greens. Around-the-green play is different from the average course in that there are very few spots the ball will run out. Instead, there’s the thick cabbage all around the green, stopping any inaccurate shots and making for some tough secondary shots if you leave it in the wrong place. Some guys are actually better at chopping it out of the tall stuff around the green than others (looking at you Hovland), so that has to be taken into account. With all that in mind, here are the picks, starting with the Each-Way Outrights.

*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.

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Outright Each-Ways

Pick: Morikawa Outright Each-Way* 5 Places (+1400) 0.25u E/W (0.5u Total)

*If you are unfamiliar with Each-Way bets, all it really means is that we are placing two bets in one – one bet on Morikawa to win, and one on him to get in the top 5. If he wins outright, we get the full +1400 dollar payout, but if he only gets in the top 5, we are looking at a reduction of ¼ to the payout. So $10 E/W ($20 total) on Morikawa at this line pays $150 if he wins, and $37.50 if he only comes in the top 5.

Morikawa is my slam dunk this week – man this guy’s been on a heater. Two top 5’s in a row, including a 4th place at Valhalla in the PGA Championship – everything is pointing to this guy finally getting back in the win column after only having a Zozo Championship to show for things over the past little while.

Regardless of his recent track record, this course suits Collin’s game to a tee (no pun intended). He’s lost length off the tee recently, but he’s gotten extremely good at hitting fairways with his patented fade on almost every hole. His approach game, which he was previously lauded for, hit a low-point earlier this year – but he’s gotten that back on track with positive strokes-gained-approach in his last few starts since he got back with his previous coach (the one that had him dialled with his iron-play).

Oh yeah, and his putting and around-the-green play (which was previously a weak point) has been very good. So he has (a) accuracy off the tee, (b) great long iron play, (c) nasty touch around the greens, and (d) putts the lights out. Sorry Scotty, I think it’s Collin’s week.

Pick: Hovland Outright Each-Way 5 Places (+1600) 0.2u E/W (0.4u Total)

Well, if Collin can’t push through in this one – the next best value on my board has to be Hovland – and you may be a little surprised with this one due to the blackhole that is this guys’ around-the-green play. But there’s one key recent change that has me guessing this part of the game is shored up, and if he can get a hot putter going, he could win this Tournament by multiple strokes. Let me explain.

First of all, one thing that’s been pretty consistent with Hovland is his driving of the golf ball. He’s long and straight – and the irons work pretty well too. The bane of his existence recently has been any shot near the green. So what changed when he put up that valiant 3rd place finish at the PGA Championship? Well, it’s the same thing that happened when he won the Tour Championship last year – he’s back with Joe Mayo.

Joe Mayo was the swing coach that helped this guy finish last season on such a heater, leading into a great Ryder Cup performance and just overall unbelievable golf from Victor. The divorce with Joe to start this year could have been one of the biggest mistakes Hovland’s made in his life – but Vic’s not one to dwell on mistakes. He’s back with him now, and the game has followed suit. Question: if you had Hovland at +1600 to win a Tournament with the way he was playing last year, would you take it? The right answer is: abso-fucking-lutely. Lock it in (though I don’t agree with his sentiment in the GIF below).

Placements (Including Ties):

Pick: Lee Hodges Top 20 (+240) 0.25u

I actually think this placement pick provides the best value on the board based on the playstyle-fit and recent form. Let’s go through it for the out-of-nowhere Lee Hodges.

First off, he is extremely accurate off the tee, gaining a ton of fairways on the field in almost any event he plays. He may be a short hitter – but like I said, that doesn’t matter as much when the importance of being on the fairway weighs so heavily on scoring average. Not only that, but the approach and putting has been dialled-in lately. I mean how else can you explain his last three results:

T12 at Colonial
T12 at Valhalla
T24 at Quail Hollow

Those are three very hard courses (just like Muirfield) in big, elevated events …. and Lee crashes the party with top twenty (or close) finishes in each one. Now they give us a +240 line with a course that fits his game great …. I mean, c’mon, we have to bet this one.

Pick: Straka Top 20 (+137) 0.5u

A guy you think would be a bomber based on his build – Straka actually ain’t all that when it comes to distance. But his accuracy is superb, and he has one of the best approach games on the Tour. The putting and around-the-green play has always been his kryptonite. If he could just get consistent in that area of the game (I know, easy to say from my armchair), he would be a perennial top 10 player. The thing is though … Straka’s ATG and putting has been spiking up more recently, and while it didn’t show at the PGA Championship, it has shown up elsewhere recently.

Now, fair is fair: he shit down his leg at Valhalla two weeks ago and missed the cut. His putting and around-the-green game, no surprise, was -2.13 shots-gained. That’s bad. Okay, but let’s look at the Tournaments around that one to see how he performed:

Last Week: T5 at Colonial, +0.88 SG Putting and ATG
Three Weeks Ago: T8 at Quail Hollow, +0.38 SG Putting and ATG
One Month Ago: T5 at Harbour Town, +0.65 SG Putting and ATG

You see the trend? If his putting is comparable to the field, he finishes top 20. With this form, in addition to his putting past at Muirfield (he’s gained strokes putting on the field in 3/4 tournaments at this course) – I’m locking this one in.

Pick: Noren Top 20 (+120) 0.25u

Noren is a top 20 pick for two reasons here: (a) his combined driving accuracy + around-the-green play is top 5 in the field (when put together), and (b) he never gets too high or too low. Let’s get into that second point, as the first point speaks for itself.

He had a very unfamiliar missed cut last week, but I’m chalking that up as more of an outlier due to his approach numbers, accuracy, and around-the-green play being so poor compared to recent previous performances. Before last week, here are his finishes: T12 (PGA Championship), T24, 3, T23, T14, T11, T19, T9. Now if that’s not consistent in a volatile sport like golf … I don’t know what is.

I’m adding the consistency with the game-fit, and hopefully Noren can pull the wagon back on the road after that Canadian Open outlier.

Pick: Detry Top 20 (+200) 0.15u

This one isn’t a huge wager – and it’s really just an indication of Detry being unlike Noren – he is quite volatile. While his game has rounded into form recently with a T4 at the PGA Championship and T2 in Texas, he also has a T56 last week, a missed cut at the CJ, and a T62 at the Players.

That doesn’t look like a guy you want to bet on here. But let’s look a little deeper. While his approach numbers aren’t great, he is a good long-iron player – aiding in his course-fit here at Muirfield. He can also get really streaky when it comes to his approach game. On top of that – he was decent in his start on this golf course last year. At the 2023 Memorial, he put up a T58, but he gained 1.27 strokes on approach, and was really just let down by terrible putting (which can also be streaky).

The data doesn’t look as good for Detry as it does for some, but he can definitely get into the top 20 with ease if he plays anywhere close to the way he played at Valhalla two weeks ago. That’s good enough for me to sprinkle.

Pick: Henley Top 10 (+275) 0.15u

The last sprinkle. Henley actually has some pretty steep odds in this Tourney, which shouldn’t be too surprising considering his form and his T16 last year in this Tournament.

Again – Henley nails fairways. On top of that, his play on tough golf courses (much like Hodges) is impressive: T23 at Valhalla, T10 at Quail Hollow, a Top 40 at Augusta – there’s no doubt the tougher courses are where this guy thrives. But past all that, his recent shots-gained performances have just been absurd when considering approach play and around-the-green play is vital here.

Okay, Henley goes to Valhalla. His strokes-gained-approach on the field is +0.74 and his strokes-gained-putting and around-the-green was +1.13. Stellar. At Quail Hollow: his strokes-gained-approach on the field is +1.40 and his strokes-gained-putting and around-the-green was +1.26. Wow. At Augusta? His strokes-gained-approach on the field is +0.54 and his strokes-gained-putting and around-the-green was +0.10.

That’s three recent tournaments on three tough courses (just like Muirfield) – and this guy is gaining shots on the field in all the areas that are important on this Nicklaus course. I’m feeling the top ten ladies and gents (as long as his game shows better than his ability to pose for pictures – I mean, c’mon guys, who told him this was a good shot?).

Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.