Well guys and gals – it’s finally here! The Stanley Cup Finals, which for me, has to be the most exciting Championship Event on the planet (sorry Superbowl, you get edged out with the longevity of an NHL Series). Finally, FINALLY, we have a Canadian team in the Cup Final again, with Oil Country and McJesus booking their ticket after an absolute nail-biting (and possibly heart attack-inducing) win in Rogers Place. There, they face off against the scum of the league (based on their style of play, which makes it a compliment) in Florida, with multiple players possessing the highest of skill-levels for their positions. The Rangers were simply no match; and it didn’t even look very close if you watched the games. Before we get to our plays for the Cup Finals – let’s get a quick recap of the Conference Finals out of the way.
We start with the beatdown in the swamps of Florida, where the Rangers tucked tail and accepted the absolute force that is the Panthers’ suffocating style of play. I mean, it was a flat-out ridiculous shutdown of the offensive firepower that made NYR such a potent postseason force to begin with. NYR had no trouble scoring against Washington (shocker), but even against a similarly-suffocating team in Carolina, NYR had all the answers when it came to goal-scoring. Panarin had been clutch and productive, Kreider gave all of New York material for their spank-bank with the hatty to eliminate CAR, and Igor …. well don’t even get me started with that Russian freak. Manufactured in a lab, beamed down from outer space, secretly trained in the dark arts of goaltending – whatever the reason, this guy haunts opposing fans’ nightmares like my guy from Elm Street.
So what did Florida do to stop NYR’s high-powered offence that had previously averaged over 3 goals-per-game against a good defensive team in the Canes? There are multiple reasons – starting with the man in the cage. Bob has been an absolute legend this Playoff run (and he has to get some more respek’ put on his name after previously being labelled a “playoff-disappointment” in his CBJ days). 7.7 goals-saved-above-expected in the Playoffs is an absurd number – and it’s really tough to beat a guy who has surgically implanted eyes in the back of his skull.
But, it’s not like Bob had to do the heavy-lifting that some goalies were forced into doing this Playoffs. Fun fact – on a per-game basis, out of the 8 teams that made it to the Second Round, Florida has allowed the least amount of shots-per-game to Forwards (17.43) and the third least amount of shots-per-game to Defenseman (6.93). Florida = no bueno for allowing the rubber through. And the reasoning for this? Forecheck and mobile defensemen. Sorry for those that have read my articles before (as I continuously stroke Florida off for this) but when your team is able to pressure the first d-man hard, crash the winger on the wall with a pinch, backup that pinch with numbers, and recover the puck 9 times out of 10 – you’re going to have tremendous success, both on offence and defence. What this allows Florida to do is stop the opposing rush in its tracks – making a dump-in and recovery the only feasible way to create offence. From there, you have either Ekblad, Forsling, Montour, or OEL going back to retrieve pucks – and the other team is usually getting a line-change in because they were hemmed in their end. It’s a pick your poison for FLA opponents between: (a) flipping pucks out of your end the whole game, giving up possession OR (b) maintaining possession, and never getting in on the rush. You can’t win; kind of like a certain team in the Playoffs with a logo of a Maple Leaf, located somewhere between Chokesville and Marnerbegone.
One thing is for certain – Florida, as a team, is a WMD ready to pop off. This is their time after a Cup Finals loss last year that saw them run into debilitating injury-trouble (serious injury trouble like Chucky’s broken sternum, not injuries in general, which almost every player is playing through right now). Could this be the team of destiny? Only one way to find out.
Okay, but back to the most exciting Conference Finals series in my eyes, Stars vs Oilers. Man oh fucking man, I don’t know how the Oilers pulled this one out, but I’m sure happy they did. Coming into the series, I was just like everybody out there and their mother – picking the Stars to win, likely in six games. And through three games, there was no doubt in my mind I had picked the right side. Skinner still looked shaky, Edmonton’s top guys were getting run down, the depth scoring was shit – all the usual stuff that everyone saw going into that series. Robertson’s hat-trick in Game Three seemed like the dagger with Dallas up 2-1, stealing the first game on the road. But before Game Four, the Oilers must have had a “On Any Given Sunday” moment – because the series flipped on its head in that game.
Suddenly – Skinner starts playing better. And not just better – but very good, dominating Oettinger in that matchup. The Nurse-Ceci combo that made Edmonton fans smash televisions (no hyperbole there, I’ve seen it) suddenly got split-up (most of the time) and got better, especially with the injection of the young Broberg to bring some more puck-movement to the lineup. The depth scoring for Edmonton – it came alive! Mcleod and Janmark with huge goals in Game Four, followed by the Nuge putting up a two-spot and the previously mentioned Broberg getting his first of the Playoffs in Game Five. And McDraisaitl …. nothing needs to be said when the best players in the world are playing like the best players in the world. That McDavid toe-drag will live on in infamy – sorry Heiskanen, you’re about to be on every poster hanging in the West Edmonton Mall.
Honestly, in the span of three games, this team went from “Hmm, classic Edmonton, all top-heavy, no substance” to “This team can seriously win the Cup, the glaring weaknesses are gone”. It’s crazy what some confidence and consistent play will do for you, and it seems as though Edmonton has finally found that “belief” that they need to get the Cup back to its rightful home. Well, it also doesn’t hurt that their powerplay (37.5% in Playoffs) and penalty-kill (93.9% in Playoffs) may be the best two special-teams units these virgin eyes have ever seen.
Okay, but enough of the stroke-offs for Oil Country and the Sunshine State. It’s time to get our units out there and find the value on the board. Now, I’ll be honest – this series is about as much of a toss-up as one can find. The Athletic actually has the win-probability for each team at a 50% split for the first time in the Playoffs – you can see how close this one is on paper. That doesn’t mean we can’t find value though, starting with a familiar favourite prop that has cashed for us two times already this Playoffs in previous article picks.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
Stanley Cup Final – Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers
Pick: Over 2.5 Road Wins in Series (-115) 3u
That’s right folks – we’re back on our bullshit with the Over Road Wins in a series for the third time this postseason. First, it was Colorado/Winnipeg Over 2.5 – and we nailed it. Then, it was Edmonton/Dallas Over 2.5 – stayed cooking. Now, we’re going for it one more time – and the value is actually the best it’s been (at -115) with the perceived home-ice advantage in this series. And fair enough, both teams have good home-ice records in the Playoffs. But something needs to be pointed out on that front – and lucky enough I was able to see this trend to attack this line.
Let’s just roll through Edmonton’s home-ice record through the NHL Playoffs:
- Round 1 vs LAK: 2-1 at Home
- Round 2 vs VAN: 2-1 at Home
- Round 3 vs DAL: 2-1 at Home
You obviously see the trend. Edmonton is always dropping one game at home in the Playoffs, and it’s usually an early game based on the last three series played. Now, how many road wins did Edmonton have on their own in those series?
- Round 1 vs LAK – 2 Road Wins
- Round 2 vs VAN – 2 Road Wins
- Round 3 vs DAL – 2 Road Wins
Add it all up, and Edmonton has gone Over 2.5 Road Wins in each and every series to this point. And Florida? It couldn’t be that the Panthers have shown a tendency to win an early road game and lose a few at home, right? I just love it when everything comes together:
- Round 1 vs TBL – FLA wins first game on the Road
- Round 2 vs BOS – FLA wins the first two games on the Road, 5 Road Wins in Series
- Round 3 vs NYR – FLA wins the first game on the Road, 3 Road Wins in Series
Those trends all support Over 2.5 Road Wins – and the edge only gets better with the fact that this series has The Athletic’s highest projection of going 7 games (31%).
I’m not saying “bet the house” on this one, but it’s sure a hell of a lot more advantageous than laying +110 to -110 on the series winner when it’s basically a coin-flip matchup. Home-ice just doesn’t mean as much as it used to – and how could it with the life-of-luxury planes the boys get to ride on now for road games, where they can sip their kale smoothies and soak in the compression leggings while watching game-tape. Gone are the days of commercial flights and pre-game beers.
Lock it in ladies and gents.
Pick: Edmonton Wins Series From Behind (+300) 1u
I can’t go too heavy with the units on this one – I really can’t tell if this is my bias showing through as a Canadian hockey fan or if Edmonton really has the juice to get through this unstoppable Florida team. Regardless though, in a toss-up series, I’ll take the value where I can get it – and this one’s perfect value with the trends I pointed out above.
As I had shown there – Edmonton gives up a game on home-ice early in series, and Florida usually wins either the first or second game on the road (and sometimes both). Well, I’m expecting a 1-1 split to start the series with both games being in Florida (and that’s being generous as Florida has been pretty stellar themselves on home-ice). So in any event, Game Three will either have the Oilers knotted up in the series, or down in the series. Then, you take either that first or second Oilers home game – give it to Florida as a win. That’s almost a guarantee that Edmonton goes down in the series at one point. And just like when Edmonton went down in the series to both Vancouver and Dallas – “The stones will come out, the Oilers will come back, and they will win the series” – Liam Neeson. This squad has nuts draggin like you see on Animal Planet documentaries:
But past the trends and what’s happened so far in the Stanley Cup Playoffs – this is gonna be an insanely entertaining series. The games will be close, either team will have a chance in each game, and the resolve and ability to handle adversity is what will truly matter as the Cup is raised. The adversity Edmonton has gone through the past few years is ridiculous – whether it be the constant questioning by the Edmonton media of McDavid getting to the next level, the berating of Nurse and his 9 sheet-per-year deal, the terrible start to the Regular Season, the deficit against Vancouver in the second round, and the even more daunting deficit to the Stars in the Conference Finals – they have literally been through it all. And what have they done with all of those tough times and rough moments in the memory bank? They’ve come together, they’ve become a true cohesive group, and they’ve finally shut all the haters up that said they could never get here with the current team construction. If you’ve ever seen Miracle (if you’re reading this, of course you have), the only thing you can compare Edmonton to is the scene where the U.S. boys are getting their bags skated off after a pre-tournament game because they weren’t playing hard for the team. Brooksy keeps the boys skating, and keeps asking each one their name, where they’re from, and who they play for. The boys keep giving names of the teams they play for, but Coach keeps em’ skating. Then, legendary Mike Eruzione finally gets it, and when he says who he plays for, instead of the town or city, he says “The United States of America”. Still get chills from that, what an iconic scene.
But really, I think a similar thing is happening here. The City of Edmonton has rallied around this group, and the support they’re showing in Oil Country right now is unprecedented. The players get what a big deal this is for the City, and have adopted Edmonton as their homeland, ready to deliver to a city that’s only known pain since the 1980’s.
Past the trends, and the intangibles like battling through adversity, Edmonton has numerous advantages to get them to the finish line. The special teams is absolutely unbelievable – and Florida’s PP looked none-to-impressive against NYR, where the Rangers actually seemed to get more chances than FLA. Skinner has his best bud in town, as he’s been working with the sports psychologist who helped Michael Jordan through his career. All of the core guys are exceeding expectations, and McDavid can finally cement his legacy as a GOAT with a Cup win. How can you bet against the Oilers, especially when the fine folk of Edmonton are showing such enthusiasm for their team.
I’m all saved up for a trip to Edmonton for the parade – please come through so I can finally go to my first one!
Two Longshot Sprinkles:
Pick: Stuart Skinner Conn Smythe Winner (+5000) 0.1u
Pick: Sam Reinhart Conn Smythe Winner (+5000) 0.1u
A couple of 50-1 Conn Smythe Futures? Why not? We’ve seen that a player’s play in the Stanley Cup Finals series can supersede previous play in the Playoffs, and I can see both these guys putting up a stellar Finals that may influence voters.
Skinner has been gaining steam with his late play in the Dallas series, and if we see Edmonton win four close, low-scoring games (with maybe one shutout on the board for the Skinshow), I think he could edge out McDavid here. Well, it’s not probable in the slightest, but it does seem more probable to me than once out of every 50 times these teams play a series against one another.
Reinhart has scored less than his counterparts (Barkov is the current favourite for the Conn Smythe on Florida, followed by Tkachuk), but he can put up goals in bunches. If he gets on fire in the series (which he most definitely can do), I could see 10-12 points coming from him. That could be enough in my eyes for the Conn Smythe, and would only add to the already substantial sum that will become due to him in Free Agency this offseason.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Stanley Cup Final – Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers
Pick: Over 2.5 Road Wins in Series (-115) 3u
Pick: Edmonton Wins Series From Behind (+300) 1u
Pick: Stuart Skinner Conn Smythe Winner (+5000) 0.1u
Pick: Sam Reinhart Conn Smythe Winner (+5000) 0.1u