UFC 302 Best Bets: Five Fight Picks - Dustin Poirier vs Islam Makhachev

Well, here we go ladies and gents. While we may not have the best PPV card ahead of us in UFC 302, there is a dynamite main event with the anointed “GOAT” successor against an absolute legend in the Diamond. With the NHL Playoffs slowing down, I’ll be back on the analysis/bets for UFC events, including Fight Nights. The tape study and the research is all worth it with profitable nights – and we have a very good slate for 302 despite the significant line difference in most fights.

It’s going to be a five-pick article, with fights from both the main card and the prelims. The same-game-parlay is going to be my method of choice in multiple fights to boost value on bigger favourites with the best probability to win. But don’t fret – we have some straight picks too – with an underdog to wet the whistles of those plus-money hunters.

Without further ado, let’s get to it, starting with the main event.

*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.

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Fight: Dustin Poirier vs Islam Makhachev

Pick: Makhachev Moneyline + Over 1.5 Rounds (+115) 1.5u

Pick: Makhachev Finish Round One (+225) 0.25u

Pick: Makhachev Finish Round Two (+350) 0.25u

A little coverage with the Round One and Round Two props in this one; it’s Makhachev’s fight to lose. There’s just no way you have confidence in Dustin here – those betting on him are likely just value-hunters or hardcore Diamond fans/Islam haters. But let’s just set the stage so everyone is aware why I’m going with the Dagestani Dynamo.

Dustin …. has been on a great run on the surface, but if you look a little deeper – the Diamond just hasn’t had success against the top-level guys, especially the ones with jiu-jitsu. Starting with his last fight against Benoit St. Denis. I love me some Benoit. Guy is a stud, but no one can be ready to fight Dustin when they’re cutting weight with a viral infection right up to the fight. St. Denis looked decent in that fight before taking an absolute rocket to the chin. But I’m putting that fight on the “nice result, but there are still questions” pile. Then – his next fight – not much to be said for that one. Gaethje caught him – with a kick reminiscent of Edwards’ title-winner – and put the lights out. This is a part of the reason I’m covering myself with Islam first and second. And yes – Dustin’s fight before that against Chandler was impressive. But there’s levels to this, and Islam will be 10x the matchup Chandler was. In fact, Islam is a lot closer to Charles Olly with his skill and style – and we all saw how that turned out for Poirier (Charles subbed him Round Three). Oh, and the closest comparable to Islam, Khabib, finished Dustin too. It all adds up, and while I expect a finish, I would lean later in the fight with Dustin’s track record (excluding the Gaethje fight).

But that’s not just because of Dustin’s recent history. Take a look at Islam’s performances. Volk – Round One finish. Granted, Islam had just fought Volk (more familiar with his tendencies) and Volk was severely out of shape/unconditioned, limiting his durability, Before that – Islam was just not a fan of the early finishes (excluding the Bobby Green late notice replacement fight, which was kind of a joke honestly). The first Volk fight goes to decision. He finished Charles Olly, but after the 1.5 Rounds was up. He hits a Round One sub on Dan the Hangman (terrible matchup for him), but goes Over 3 Rounds in both the Moises fight, and the Dober fight. Moises = great jiu jitsu, and Dober is a tough motherfucker. Well, DP is a tough motherfucker with great jiu-jitsu – now you see why I’m expecting a later finish? Lock it in folks, I’m very confident here.

Fight: Sean Strickland vs Paulo Costa

Pick: Strickland Moneyline + Over 1.5 Rounds (-125) 1u

Sorry Paulo, the Secret Juice can’t help you in this spot. No matter the power that this guy generates (and it is a lot, just take a look at the bodybuilder-type build), it’s going to be worthless against the dumbest (in real life), yet smartest (fight IQ) fighter at 185 in the Strickshow. Let me show you my thinking.

Paulo is everyone’s favourite with his social media hilarity and KO ability. But it seems as though one of those pieces has been missing lately, specifically against high-level UFC competition. Costa goes out in his last one in a pretty good fight (for him) against Whittaker. Nonetheless, he’s still outstruck, outpointed, and outmatched in that one. He kept throwing the power – and Whittaker would just double him up on counters, driving rounds further in his favour. The fight before that, Costa had a washed-up Rockhold looking for one more kick at the can. You know, the same Rockhold that got knocked out horrifically by Romero and Bisping. And Paulo won …. but by decision? That can’t be right. Well, it is, and that seriously gave me concerns about his only path to victory in this one. It just doesn’t add up – the last time he knocked someone out was Uriah Hall in 2018! In that span, he’s had losses to Izzy and Vettori, and if you’re doing MMA math – Strickland beat Izzy, Izzy beat Vettori, Vettori beat Costa – therefore, Strickland wins. Hahahah, it’s obviously not that simple, but all signs point to Sean in this one.

And if Strickshow is winning this fight with his great defensive striking style and volume – it is not going to be within the first 7 minutes and 30 seconds of the fight, especially in a five rounder. The last time Strickland went Under 1.5 in a win was 2020 against Brendan Allen – and for as hard as I’m ragging on Paulo, he is levels above Allen. Lock it in folks.

Fight: Kevin Holland vs Michal Oleksiejczuk

Pick: Holland Moneyline + No Distance (-115) 0.75u

Pick: Holland Submission (+250) 0.1u

Holland disappointed last time out in that MVP fight – but I don’t know if many people were expecting MVP to look that good. A rubik’s cube on steroids – I can’t blame Kev for not being able to solve that puzzle. But this is a perfect bounce back spot – where the fighter in front of him will look like a ten-piece-puzzle compared to MVP.

Mikey O is a fun fighter. Likes to strike and knock guys out. But let’s go through the results lately here. He gets absolutely mauled by Michel Pereira – no disrespect coming from me on that one, Michel would’ve killed anyone that night. Also – he gets smoked by Caio Borralho the fight prior to that, a very dynamic young fighter who has been stacking up the finishes. But Mikey does have his wins, with KOs against Chidi (decent win, but Chidi is mid at best) and Brundage (honestly, he’s brutal). If you’re looking for chalk – go no distance in this one – because Mikey O is either getting you out of there earlier, or he’s sucking wind by the second round and vulnerable to a big shot/sub.

And Holland, he may not be the most proficient finisher around, but he can get them when the opportunities present themselves. He has two finishes in his last four fights against better fighters than Mikey O (in my eyes) with the submission over Chiesa and the knockout of Ponzinibbio. It’s also reassuring to know Kev’s ground game is solid as fuck (8 career wins by sub, 4 UFC wins by sub), seeing as Mikey O has only been knocked out once in his pro career, but has been subbed 5 times. That’s why I’m splashing the submission prop – but feel free to just ride the big play in this one.

Fight: Roman Kopylov vs Cesar Almeida

Pick: Kopylov Moneyline (+140) 0.75u

Colour me confused – I have Kopylov as the favourite in this one. I get it, I get it – Cesar beat Alex Periera in kickboxing back in the day. He is a bonafide striker with years of experience on Kopylov and tons of opportunities in a match-up that projects to be on the feet (mostly). But we’ve seen it time and time again with kickboxers not named Alex Periera (lucky duck to start his training with a top five grappler all-time in Texeira) – this is MMA, and you’re ability to mix all styles makes for a more effective fighter. Cesar got slowed down quite a bit with the grappling in his Contender Series fight and his first showing in the UFC (where he still got the finish) – and while Kopylov is a striker by trade, he’s years ahead of Cesar in wrestling proficiency.

That wasn’t always the case though. Kopylov lost his first two in the UFC because he would (i) get out-wrestled, and (ii) gas out. Then, it’s like a switch flipped in this guy’s head. There’s mention of him going out to Dagestan for every camp following that second loss (and if that was for a vacation, I’d be suing his travel advisor). Whatever it was – he figured it out. His gas has been great, his takedown defence has been stellar (opponents are 3/18 on TD’s in his last three fights), and the striking still looks deadly. He hasn’t used any offensive wrestling recently, but he’s been facing guys he didn’t want to engage with in grappling, with matchups like Hernandez, Ribeiro, and Fremd (all predominantly grapplers). You think that his wrestling training in Dagestan only included defensive wrestling? Of course not; and that’s why I think he has the tools to employ wrestling to his advantage as long as his coach/team aren’t numbskulls.

It’s the easiest path to victory, and while I’m sure Cesar would win a straight kickboxing match, that ain’t what we have here. Take the Underdog and let the boys eat.

Fight: Grant Dawson vs Joe Solecki

Pick: Grant Dawson KO (+500) 0.1u

A longshot to end things off – and it is a longshot with Grant refusing to KO anyone throughout his career (4 wins by KO vs 13 subs). The only thing is …. Solecki refuses to be subbed by anyone (2 losses by KO, 0 by sub). So what’s going to give?

Well, I have the Dawsonator getting the ground-and-pound finish – as I’m betting he doesn’t have it in his hands on the feet to get Solecki out of there. Nonetheless, his opportunities to get the ground-and-pound finish will be plentiful, and here is the reason why.

Unlike guys Solecki has faced in the past, Dawson has elite level wrestling jiu-jitsu. That’s right, not just jiu-jitsu; wrestling jiu-jitsu. He blends in his strong offensive wrestling with submissions when he can find the opening – and he’s very good at it as is evidenced by his 13 career submissions. But Solecki …. his pure jiu-jitsu is next level. He’s a specialist, and his ability to stay safe on the ground is elite based on what I saw. He can still get on the wrong-end of a scramble against other proficient grapplers, but he never gets subbed. That’s what has me thinking ground-and-pound – Dawson outmuscles him through the fight, gets him down, wears him out, and eventually grabs the back with a flattened-out Solecki getting pounded on. Dawson could win a decision – I just don’t see him putting on a snoozer against an inferior opponent after his huge upset loss to King Bobby last time out. Prove why you’re a borderline-ranked fighter Grant – get this thing done early.

Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.