Ooooeee, we’ve been on an absolute heater the past few nights! Two straight nights of big plays hitting; I’m thinking we have the pulse of each series at this point. And we have a real big game in Oil Country tonight, where Dallas can practically guarantee themselves a Cup Finals berth with a sweep in Rogers Place. Before getting to the big play + sprinkle for tonight, let’s recap the action last night between the Blueshirts and the Rats.
I swear – I don’t know if I’ve seen a more tilted Playoff game in the last five years. What an absolute work-job Florida put on New York last night. The one thing that kept popping into my mind watching this game was the recent Deontay Wilder fight, which is (first of all) hilarious, and (second of all) very symbolic of how the game played out: Power shot, after power shot, after power shot from Florida, and eventually the Rangers go down.
It really started with the Florida forecheck. I know, I’ve been stroking the Panthers off a lot lately, but they took it to a new level last night. They run a modified man-on-man system when they dump it in, forcing pucks up the wall where the defenceman jump up on the wingers, pinching while the high forward backs them up. It’s really not too complex; it’s just incredibly hard to run if you don’t have mobile defenseman who can stick with their guys and recover if the puck somehow gets out up the wall. If your team’s composed of concrete-boots on the backend, there’s going to be double-digit odd-man rushes coming your way. Well, good thing Florida has the best skating defensive core in the NHL (only possibly rivalled by the Stars) – and it really does show. Just look at the analytics from last night:
- Expected Goals For: 3.53 FLA – 2.21 NYR
- Scoring Chances: 44 FLA – 19 NYR
- MoneyPuck.com Deserve-To-Win-Meter: 76.8% FLA – 23.3% NYR
I’ll be honest – those numbers look a lot like my beer league games where one team in the league is made up of ex-junior players and all the other teams have middle-aged, overweight accountants. What a mismatch.
And Shesterkin …. well, he played un-fucking-real. The guy is honestly from another planet – there’s no other way to explain it. If you had to pick one goalie to start your Franchise with tomorrow, it’s either him or Swayman (and I would pick Shesty with his larger sample size of being a God amongst men). I wouldn’t blame Igor for motherfucking every other guy in that room last night after the performance they put in. It’s Goodrow, it’s Laf, and then it’s no one. The ridiculous part is, NYR still almost won the game. And while I cant discount them winning 2 of the next 3 (especially with two of those games being in MSG), they can’t keep playing like this if they’re expecting to win. It’s like being a Leafs fan and expecting Playoff success; there’s a chance, but not really.
Okay, now that we got through that, let’s get to the action tonight. I’m going with a familiar favourite (with a slight twist) and a Player Prop that is severely undervalued with recent changes in the Stars lineup. So without further ado, let’s crush it for the third day in a row!
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Game Four: Dallas Stars vs Edmonton Oilers, 6:30 p.m. CST
Pick: Dallas Stars Over 2.5 Goals (-150) 2u
Ho hum, we’re going back to the well here with the Dallas Team Over after cashing it in Game Three; this time without the 3-Way aspect, so we can cash this baby in OT as well. I don’t think we’re going to need that extra cushion, but it’s nice to have with only a slight line difference (-120 vs -150).
I just can’t fathom why this line continues to be this low. I pointed this out in my other recent article, but just look at Dallas’ Goals-For-Per-Game with Roope Hintz in the lineup (keep in mind that VGK has much better defence/goaltending than COL and EDM):
- VGK Games 1-7 (Roope Healthy) – 3 GF, 1 GF, 3 GF, 4 GF, 3 GF, 0 GF, and 2 GF (average of 2.28 GF per game)
- COL Games 1-3 (Roope Healthy) – 3 GF, 4 GF, and 5 GF (average of 4 GF per game)
- COL Games 4-6 (Game Four played 6 minutes, Missed Five & Six) – 5 GF, 3 GF, and 2 GF (average of 3.3 GF per game)
- EDM Games 1-2 (Missed) – 2 GF and 3 GF (average of 2.5 GF per game)
- EDM Game 3 (Roope Healthy) – 5 GF
This guy just straight up brings the offence all-together: hitting Over 2.5 on their Team Total in 9 out of 12 games he’s appeared in – and 5 out of his last 5 games appeared in. But don’t just look at the stats – watch the condensed game from two nights ago if you have some time and see how many highlights he was involved in, either as a distributor or lugging it in on zone-entries. It’s unreal, and the fact that this guy’s back and is (quite clearly) a lot more healthy is a dangerous prospect for the other three teams remaining. That’s not even mentioning the fact that Robertson is back on his bullshit with Roopedaddy out there (which I’ll touch on more below with the Player Prop analysis).
And the analytics trend projects another Team Over coming tonight, if all things remain equal. The Stars are averaging 3.22 Expected Goals For over the three games so far this series – and they’re giving themselves ample opportunities with 36, 30, and 24 scoring chances respectively. Edmonton is clearly getting run down after playing the 34-year-old Ekholm 31, 24, and 21 minutes the last three games, along with Drai and McDavid hanging around that 23 minute TOI mark. Which means more tired bodies, or more depth-time required from the Edmonton bottom-six/bottom pair. In either situation – it becomes very probable that more Dallas goals are the result. 2 + 2 is 4, minus 1 that’s 3 quick maths.
And Skinshow … well, he’s actually been pretty damn good in this series. And it hasn’t seemed to matter. Dallas still finds a way to capitalize on chances – being the opportunistic, seasoned team that they are, that’s not surprising. But with Robertson goin, Wyatt Johnston finally potting one last game, and Miro the Hero working the backend double-shifts – I think we’re seeing it all come together. Power Rangers, assemble.
Lock the Team Over 2.5 Goals in and kick your feet up – we could be sweat-free by the third period (fingers crossed).
Pick: Jason Robertson Over 2.5 SOG (+125) 0.5u
Man ….. the disrespect sportsbooks are showing this guy after he shoved it up their hoop last game with the 4 SOG, hat-trick performance. As I mentioned above, Robertson is such a different guy playing with Hintz and confidence. Robertson + Hintz = Joanie + Chauchie.
Honestly though, lets roll through the numbers for Jason in the Playoffs so far. Hintz is healthy for the whole First Round against VGK, and here are his shot totals for the first five games: 3, 2, 4, 3, and 4 SOG. Pretty deadly right? Well, then Jason starts to dry up a little, going 8 out of 10 games with Under 2.5 SOG. What the hell happened?
- First: Roope missed 5 of those games, not helping matters in the least
- Second: He straight up lost his confidence. 10 straight games without a goal this Playoffs prior to last game (for a guy who didn’t go more than 5 games without a goal in the Regular Season) sure can make a guy feel snake-bit, and the natural reaction is to look more for the pass than the shot. A guy who averaged 5.81 shot attempts in the Regular Season went down to 3.7 shot attempts over that stretch.
The good news is – Robertson’s back. 26 shot attempts in his last four games (6.5 per game) – obviously the coaches got in his ear to start letting things rip again. And coming off a huge hatty, his confidence must be sky high. It’s not like this is some small guy who can get physically dominated in Playoff hockey – he’s actually kinda a horse with a very good Playoff build.
Combine that with Hintz being back – we gotta smoke this one faster than Nate Diaz and Snoop Dogg sharing a blunt.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Game Four: Dallas Stars vs Edmonton Oilers, 6:30 p.m. CST
Pick: Dallas Stars Over 2.5 Goals (-150) 2u
Pick: Jason Robertson Over 2.5 SOG (+125) 0.5u