Holy shit guys and gals, what a night of hockey we had in Edmonton last night. Both teams had their “A” games for a crucial third game in the series – Edmonton for the first half of the game, and the Stars for the second half. It really was the tale of two periods in this one. Before we get to the action in the Sunshine State, let’s take a look back on Oilers/Stars.
We’ll start with the way Edmonton came out to begin last night. Oooooeeeee these boys were flying. They must have outchanced Dallas 5-to-1 in the first 25-30 minutes of the game, with McDavid covering more ice than a Polar Bear migrating, and Hyman parking his ass right in the no-fly zone. It was an insane switch-up from the previous game in Dallas, where the teams went back and forth the whole game, without much dominance in any direction. But Edmonton forgot that the game keeps going even after you rip Dallas open for two cheds before the second period. And then …. the turntables.
It all started with a Robertson clap-bomb that would even make Al MacInnis blush. That one-tee was an absolute rocket – it’s a scientific mystery the netting didn’t disintegrate on impact of the puck. Good for Robertson man, the poor Canadian kid was struggling with a goal-less streak of ten games coming into last night (after only going a max of five games without a goal in the Regular Season). In the biggest game of the year (so far), the young gunner comes up with the biggest performance of his life – a hat trick that would’ve had multiple cowboy hats/bras on the ice in Texas. And would you lookee here, who assisted two of his three goals on the night? The man with the long Roope – Hintz was everything Robertson needed and more. The guy is such a fucking weapon, and with him in the lineup, Edmonton may not really have a shot. I haven’t seen a team addition make such a big impact since I saw a Cuban 12-year-old grace the mound in Benchwarmers.
Oettinger really tightened up as the game went on, and as I said in my previous article – Edmonton guys are just starting to run out of gas. It sucks, but it’s a fact of life when Dallas feels comfortable rolling three lines and Edmonton keeps trying to figure out how to mix up their lines for more McDraisaitl time. It’s not sustainable, and you’d think they would’ve figured this out with the previous Playoff disappointments in Oil Country. Sad to say it, but this one is Dallas’ to lose.
Okay, but on to the action for tonight. Man, I feel incredible about this play, and I’m adding a little sprinkler with this one too for a real juicy night. Staying away from the Player Props, but there’s more than enough action here for the Conference Finals. Let’s roll people.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
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Game Four: New York Rangers vs Florida Panthers, 6:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Florida Panther Moneyline (-165) 2u
Pick: Florida Panthers Over 2.0 Goals (3-Way) (-150) 0.5u
I am ALL over Florida tonight, and it really isn’t hard to explain why. If you’ve watched this series, you know that Florida has been giving NYR the business on both ends of the ice, massively outchancing them and dominating the flow of the play for the most part. But NYR – you know, the team with a +.850 win percentage in one-goal games over the season – is fine with that kinda game. They’ve basically perfected the “hey Shesty, you’re good for 40 saves tonight, right? We’ll just put up 20 shots and score on 5 of them, no problem here”. It’s ridiculous – but then again – it’s happened way too many times for it to be a fluke. These boys know how to get it done in crunch time, and it won’t only take dominance for Florida to win this one – it’ll take execution.
So then, why Florida tonight? Well, there are a couple of factors at play. Let’s start with the Florida Home Record in the Playoffs. 4-2 prior to the last game, and 4-3 with that game included. Good, but not amazing, right? Don’t worry, we’re getting to it. Now, let’s take a look at Florida in the Playoffs coming off a loss. They’ve lost three games this whole postseason prior to the Conference Finals. They won the following game each and every time. So, combine that with the +.500 record on home-ice. Now, you have them in a spot where they’ve lost two in a row, one being at home, and there’s a prime bounce-back opportunity in the home-barn with the desperation-factor in play. There’s just no way I’m missing this spot on Florida tonight – it would be like Keanu Reeves rejecting his role in the Matrix.
But it’s not as if I’m solely relying on trends in this spot. The eye-test and the analytics are both on the Panthers’ side here through three games. They move the puck up the ice in such a controlled manner, gaining entries when possible, and destroying Blueshirts d-men on the forecheck when it isn’t. The D are so mobile, and Forsling is really breaking out with his offensive game. Tkachuk seemed a lot more engaged last game, and Reinhart continues to be a weapon. Meanwhile, the only guys at the top of their game in NYR are Shesty (of course), Trocheck, Lafreniere, and Barclay Goodrow. Fox has been average, Panarin’s been a floater, and Trouba can’t stop himself from breaking out the chicken dance on the ice.
If you’re going by the MoneyPuck.com deserve-to-win-meter (based on the analytics within the game), Florida would win that last game 78.6% of the time, with 3.81 expected goals for the Panthers to a measly 1.69 expected goals for the Rangers. The two deflection goals on Bob last game don’t happen every game – and with this massive advantage Florida seemingly holds in the series, it’s impossible not to pick them at -165. Pop, lock, and drop it.
And if I’m thinking that Florida wins this one – the Team Over is basically an auto pick to go along with the Moneyline. Do you know their hit rate for (3-Way) Over 2.0 Goals in Playoff wins? 7 out of 9 times. Yea, that’s good enough for me, considering they exploded for 4 goals last game and have a top three goals-for-per-game mark in the Playoffs.
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Game Four: New York Rangers vs Florida Panthers, 6:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Florida Panther Moneyline (-165) 2u
Pick: Florida Panthers Over 2.0 Goals (3-Way) (-150) 0.5u