Good Lord – these Playoffs are going by way too fast. I can’t believe we’re about 8-10 total games away (max) from the Stanley Cup Final. The Playoffs have been an exciting blur, with great goals and even better moments. Let’s recap the action yesterday in the Sunshine State before we get to the game in Oil Country tonight.
FINALLY. That’s the kind of game we were waiting for in the Conference Finals. Call it Matinee Magic, the goalies finally giving an inch, or the tipped-puck extravaganza – all could apply. Man, what a back-and-forth affair we were treated to in the Retirement Capital of the World, where Barclay Goodrow cemented his status as a Playoff God. If it wasn’t enough being the key third-liner on TBL’s Cup-winning teams all those years ago, he goes out and gets the game-winner in Game Two this series, followed by a two-goal performance with a shortie in last nights’ game. As the Playoffs get deeper, this guy gets more comfortable. I had questioned how much NYR was paying this guy initially, but they’re shoving that criticism right back up my hoop with the way he’s been performing. Teams need a guy like Barcs to win the Cup, just don’t count on him for a fight to get the boys going (save it for the Rempire State building).
Another guy that has to be spoken about is Lafdaddy. Man, Lafreniere is taking some massive steps this postseason in becoming a game-breaking forward with a good overall game that can finish. Fuck you Rangers, how do you guys just keep churning them out? I mean, I know Laf was considered a bit of a bust at first because he was the number one overall pick and didn’t perform immediately. But NYR never subscribed to that theory, considering his development ongoing, and the dividends of the decision to keep him are cashing ten-fold with the way he’s dominating. Honestly, if you watched that game last night, was there any forward on the ice for the Rangers that drove the play more than Laf? He means more to the team than Panarin or Zibanejad at this point, not only because of his goal scoring ability, but also because of his low-key playmaking and surprisingly physical forecheck. I bet he regrets signing a two-year bridge deal this last offseason – if he would’ve held it to one-year, this man would be getting PAID this offseason (well, paid a lot more than the 2.325 Milly he’s set to make next year).
Before moving on, let’s touch on the nuclear explosion of goals that took place yesterday. Want to know something ridiculous? Game Three had significantly less expected goals for (EGF) between the teams (5.54 EGF combined) than Games Two (5.93 EGF combined) and One (6.08 EGF combined). It just doesn’t make sense. Yet you run the eye-test on the game, and there did seem to be significantly more high-danger chances with a much more open/fast style of play. Go figure. It’s fair to say that the goalies weren’t exactly on top of their games (not at their best anyway) and three deflection goals skewed the numbers somewhat. Yet we could have a more exciting series starting to bloom based on what I saw, and that would make me happier than KG post-championship:
Okay, let’s get on to the action tonight. Stars vs Oilers, man, it’s a doozy. Two very tightly contested matchups to start the series; let me tell you why things are still gonna be tight tonight, but the goals are going to come in bunches. The Total pick is the big play tonight, but I’ll be throwing some scratch on one Player Prop that shows the most upside tonight. Oh, and lest we forget, some very small splashes on the Correct Score predictions from our anonymous (for now) contributors. Let’s ride my friends.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
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Game Three: Dallas Stars vs Edmonton Oilers, 6:30 p.m. CST
*Pick: Dallas Stars Over 2.0 Goals (3-Way) -125 1.5u
Backup Pick: Over 5.5 Goals (-115) 0.75u
*This pick is contingent on Roope Hintz being back in the lineup. He has a huge impact on the Stars’ ability to score and completely turns around Robertson’s game – giving Dallas a lot more firepower. He’s a game-time decision tonight, so make sure to stay up-to-the-minute and flip to my backup play if he is ruled out again.
We’ve had better results with just one straight pick on the games – if not, I’d be doubling this one up with both the Stars Over 2 Goals (3-Way) and Over 5.5 Goals. Regardless, I’m expecting a similar result to yesterday, with the volcano of goals finally erupting tonight in Rogers Place. The only key is – will Roope play?
Hintz makes such a big impact on the Stars offence – it’s tough to feel great about them scoring in bunches without him in the lineup. I mean, let’s just take a look at the last series to get a gauge on how much his presence affects their goals-for per game:
- Avs Games 1-3 (Full Games Played by Roope) – 3 GF, 4 GF, and 5 GF (average of 4 GF per game)
- Avs Games 4-6 (Game Four played 6 minutes, Missed Five & Six) – 5 GF, 3 GF, and 2 GF (average of 3.3 GF per game)
- EDM Games 1-2 (Missed) – 2 GF and 3 GF (average of 2.5 GF per game)
You’re seeing the trend, right? And that’s not even mentioning the lineup that included Roope putting up 3+ goals in 4/7 games in the VGK series with the Knights’ amazing goaltending and stellar defensive core. The Stars are no joke on offence regardless of Hintz, that much is clear. But they go from “no joke” to “gamebreakers” with him in the lineup, not only with his added offence, but also in the way he enables Robertson to play like a bargain-brand Ovechkin (which trust me, is not an insult, considering OV is the greatest goalscorer to ever hold a hockey stick).
But that can’t be it for analysis. Gotta consider the eye-test for at least a section of this article. I advocated for the Under in Game Two with my last article, and what do you know – it hit. But that was one of the most uncomfortable sweats of my life, and it honestly took the Gambling Gods showing me some mercy for that one to stay Under 5.5. I saw at least five saves Skinner made as goals against the average Skinner. There was a play I remember very clearly where he jumped the cross-ice pass before it went over, slid back to the shooter, and flung his body across the net only for it to barely go off his chest-protector. And this wasn’t even a high-danger scoring chance – yet he sure made it into one the moment he anticipated incorrectly. Oettinger was pretty stellar, but he got a lot of assistance from the other guys on the squad wearing blocked-shots for the boys. Oettinger has been up-and-down all Playoffs, as has Skinner – so how can we trust them when it took some amazing play from both last game to keep the score to 3-1?
But the eye-test doesn’t only apply to the goalies; it applies to the defencemen as well. Now, I haven’t noticed this as significantly on the Stars side, but it’s clear the older guys are wearing down – especially the guys playing those hard-nosed minutes. Bouchard is making more careless plays due to fatigue, Kulak is a turnover machine, and Harley doesn’t seem to have the impact he did earlier in the Playoffs. However, the two most glaring examples were Tanev and Ekholm; no surprise considering they’ve played the most minutes in the Playoffs for 34+ year-old players by a significant margin. Tanev wasn’t terrible, but there were more than a few plays where he looked to be less explosive in puck retrieval and player-puck separation – no surprise with McJesus running around out there. Ekholm …. was bad. Credit for the valiant effort, but the usually-reliable defenceman looked dead-dog-tired out there, tossing pucks all over the ice and missing stick-checks like I’ve never seen. Father Time catches up with everyone, especially in the 16th Playoff Game in 45 days where the intensity only builds each day.
Last but not least – the analytics. This is where it really doesn’t make sense. Games One and Two – the EGF combined between the teams (7.28 EGF and 6.21 EGF respectively) were higher than any EGF in the NYR vs FLA series (6.08 EGF was the highest in the 5-4 OT Game Three). One of the only ways you can offset EGF is if your goalies save expected goals. Yet ….. the good goalies are in the East, not in the West! So why is it that EDM vs DAL have more EGF than NYR vs FLA, yet they can’t seem to break the Over seal? Well, it’s coming – it has to come eventually. I’m picking this spot tonight, where we either need 3 Dallas Goals with Roope in, or 6 Total Goals with him out.
Player Prop Pick: Evander Kane Over 2.5 SOG (-120) 0.25u – Kane has been absolutely firing lately, and he’s needed to with a notable drop-off in shot attempts from goal-scorer linemate Drai. I mean, he’s hit Over this line in four straight games, not to mention his shot attempts for the last two games are astronomical at 9 and 8. If you had to trust one guy tonight, I’m sure it’s not Kaner. But at this line, with -120 to boot – I’m all over it.
And lastly, the two yet-to-be named contributors have their longshot Correct Score predictions for tonight – tail at your own risk (last article, 0-3)
- Plus Money J: Dallas Wins 4-3 (+1200) 0.05u
- Plus Money (I): Edmonton Wins 3-2 (+850) 0.05u
- Plus Money (II) Dallas Win 4-2 (+1600) 0.05u
Well, that’s it people. I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Game Three: Dallas Stars vs Edmonton Oilers, 6:30 p.m. CST
*Pick: Dallas Stars Over 2.0 Goals (3-Way) -125 1.5u (Contingent on Roope playing)
Backup Pick: Over 5.5 Goals (-115) 0.75u
Player Prop Pick: Evander Kane Over 2.5 SOG (-120) 0.25u
Longshots:
- Plus Money J: Dallas Wins 4-3 (+1200) 0.05u
- Plus Money (I): Edmonton Wins 3-2 (+850) 0.05u
- Plus Money (II) Dallas Win 4-2 (+1600) 0.05u