That’s right, this is my first edition of “Balls On The Line” picks, where the usually conservative bettor (myself) is seeing really great value on the board with some plugged-in reads for NHL Conference Final play so far. This month, it’s been up and down – but tonight, it’s almost a guaranteed win-win spot (depending on your sportsbook of course, exclusively Bet365 here). Let’s recap Concrete Jungle vs Retirement Community/Convict Haven before we get too far ahead of ourselves.
Another tight-like-a-tiger matchup in Madison Square Garden, where the Rempire State of Mind was alive and well. Lordy, Remp daddy had the crowd practically throwing their bras/borat man-thongs on the ice after he won a d-zone face off – I would’ve loved to see that barn if he took a scalp off the opposition like Kulikov did. I said it the moment it happened: I really hope the NHL hasn’t gotten to the point where that’s a major penalty. And thankfully, Toronto and the zebras agreed with me – Wennberg reaches, Kulikov teaches:
Honestly, as a Devils fan, all I could think of was the Trouba-Meier kill-job last year in the Playoffs. Head on a swivel at this point boys, and if a pass blows up on your tape – move on. Nonetheless, we saw NYR make adjustments last night, and it’s clear they came away with the dub because of a few vital changes. Well, what were they? Breakout, breakout, breakout changes. They finally had success busting the FLA forecheck, specifically early in the game where the whole squad looked dialed. It was a mash-up of quick zone exits, followed by controlled, cross-ice passes at either blueline – Picasso couldn’t have painted a better picture. Now I’ll be honest, I still think Florida maintained the 5-on-5 advantage and controlled the majority of the play. But NYR hasn’t ever needed those stats on their side to pull away with a win. I made a point of that earlier in the series: NYR has a +.850 win percentage in one-goal games, no matter what way the ice is tilted. It was only a matter of time (S/O to the master of time, public figure Flava Flave)
I can’t wait to see this matchup back in Florida, where the Over/Under for weathered skin and fake knockers is impossible to calculate given the location. Let’s just try to keep our eyes peeled on the action on the ice.
Okay, c’mon now – the real reason we’re here. It’s been a long NHL Playoffs of learning lessons game-to-game – and we’ll never be done learning. But the one thing I keep coming back to is this: Don’t overlook recent results because of past trends. Yes, Florida and New York scored 3+ goals (on their own) in 90%+ of their matchups prior to meeting in the Conference Finals. You’d think this series was easily a lock for Over 5.5 in every game based on the offensive trends these teams showed. But then you watch the game – and it’s so much tighter than the previous two series. The shots come at a premium, and the play is not nearly as fast/open. Both Games One and Two – the Unders cash with ease. And don’t even get me started on what a coin-flip game-picks are at this point. What’s expected based on the analytics vs raw results illustrates this in NYR vs FLA – where you can see the disparity between expected goals vs actual goals so far:
- Game One: Expected Goals For (XGF) NYR: 3.25 vs FLA: 2.83 (actual score, 3-0 Florida)
- Game Two: XGF NYR: 3.12 vs FLA: 2.81 (actual score, 2-1 Rangers OT)
You try to make rhyme or reason out of that. That’s why the plays tonight have so much value – they’re both Plus Money, and with the way things have gone in the DAL vs EDM series, one, if not both, of these major bets will cash. Let’s get to em’.
*Units for me will be $100. Bet responsibly.
If you want to keep up with the cash outs I’m taking, it’s easy to toss a follow on X and keep notifications on. You don’t have to take my suggested cash outs, but they are helpful in certain situations:
Game Two: Edmonton Oilers vs Dallas Stars, 6:00 p.m. CST
Pick: Edmonton Oilers Moneyline (+115) 2u
That’s right – I’m fading the public on this one. And it’s no shot against Dallas, who I think has looked great throughout the Playoffs. This all comes down to the fact that no team should really be plus money at this point, especially a team with the “star power” advantage early in the series and a previous performance to dispel any fears that they can’t defend against Dallas. Don’t overthink it, this game is either teams’ for the taking, and from what we’ve seen, Edmonton can pull a VGK and body-bag the Stars for two at home. The question is, why is Edmonton the Underdog here?
I honestly can’t tell you why – the expected goals from Game One were almost a near dead draw. I guess the bookies are putting stock into the fact that Dallas had the advantage in 5-on-5 XGF. Um, yeah, that’s kind of what everyone expected from the first game with the depth disadvantage for the Oilers up front – yet Oil Country still came out with the dub due to McTopTitty with a side of Drai.
Listen, I’m not guaranteeing an Edmonton win by any stretch of the imagination. That would be preposterous. You can tail it, you can fade it. But I just can’t get over the value of being on the opposite side of a -130 to -140 Stars Moneyline line when (even if their team outplays Edmonton) we’ve seen this story before, and the ending is an Oil Country Dub. If you’re going to throw darts at a board tonight, at least throw your darts at the board with the biggest targets. That’s what you’re doing if you bet on Edmonton tonight.
Pick: Under 5.5 Goals (+110) 2u
That’s right – fading the public again. We’re focusing on what’s happened recently – get rid of all those Regular Season betting tendencies. Yes, Edmonton was the most prolific Over team during the Regular Season. Yes, Edmonton went Over 5.5 Goals in 8/12 Playoff games prior to this series. And wouldn’t you know it – the Stars also went Over 5.5 Goals in 4/6 games in the Avs series. But we’ve seen this story before with Florida and New York in their previous series’ – it doesn’t matter who your previous matchups are, because they can’t compare to the next team in the gauntlet with different tendencies, different playing styles, and overall tougher competition. What more do you need than a comparison between Game One’s in the Conference Finals to suggest the same story repeats itself tonight with the Under:
FLA vs NYR Games:
- Game One: Expected Goals For (XGF) NYR: 3.25 vs FLA: 2.83 (actual score, 3-0 Florida)
- Game Two: XGF NYR: 3.12 vs FLA: 2.81 (actual score, 2-1 Rangers OT)
EDM vs DAL Games:
- Game One: XGF EDM: 3.54 vs DAL: 3.74 (actual score, 3-2 EDM OT win)
- Game Two: ?
Each team can have as many Goals Expected as they like. In fact, throw the whole analytics farm at this one to go Over the Total – and it still could go Under. The Under happened last game, the majority of that game dictated an Under, and both games in the East have been low-scoring to match Game One of this series. Oh, and it’s plus money. Fading the public x2 really takes it out of me, but I’m feeling it in my plums.
Alright, alright, I can’t let you get away that easily. Plus Money has two potential contributors scoping out each game of the Conference Finals. And those two individuals, along with myself, are going to take cracks at the Correct Score props for these games. It’s a fun way to get some action – you don’t need to lay a lot down, and we could have the emergence of a nostradamus on our hands – so why not. Names of the contributors will be revealed once they’ve gotten a dub to their name – here we go:
- Plus Money J Correct Score (0.05u) – 3-2 Oilers Repeat
- Plus Money (I) Correct Score (0.05u) – 5-2 Dallas
- Plus Money (II) Correct Score (0.05u) – 5-3 Dallas
Obviously, those other degens aren’t on my side tonight. But that’s what I’m betting on, and that concludes the first edition of “Balls On The Line” picks ladies and gents – let’s ride.
I will be posting another betting article soon with NHL Playoff game bets. If you want to make sure you don’t miss these articles, follow me on X at @plusmoneypost as I will be sharing them there.
Summary of Picks
Pick: Edmonton Oilers Moneyline (+115) 2u
Pick: Under 5.5 Goals (+110) 2u
Longshots:
- Plus Money J Correct Score (0.05u) – 3-2 Oilers Repeat
- Plus Money (I) Correct Score (0.05u) – 5-2 Dallas
- Plus Money (II) Correct Score (0.05u) – 5-3 Dallas